Article: Playoffs Or Bust?: Molitor's Murky Future

[Cody Christie]

The Twins are at a crossroads. When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought into the fold last off-season, there was one stipulation: Paul Molitor would remain manager. One year later and the new regime finds themselves at an interesting point.

 

Should Molitor, a Hall of Fame player and St. Paul native, return for another season? Or does the new regime want to bring in another manager who fits their own mold?The Positive

Molitor has managed three seasons and in two of those years he has had the Twins in surprise contention for the playoffs. During his rookie managerial season, the Twins fought off their recent losing trend as the club was in the playoff hunt until the season's last weekend. An 83-79 record was a vast improvement compared to four straight 90-loss seasons under Ron Gardenhire. Players like Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano posted strong numbers at the plate under the leadership of a Hall of Fame hitter.

 

The 2017 campaign has been up and down to say the least. Minnesota somehow finds themselves in the thick of the wild card race even though they have been outscored by over 50 runs. A young core of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler are supplementing a rotation led by Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. For the second time in three years, Molitor has the Twins in position to make the playoffs which is something the Twins haven't seen since 2010.

 

The Negative

It's hard to forget how bad the Twins were in 2016. The team fumbled and stumbled their way to a franchise-worst 103 losses. Moving Sano to the outfield was a disaster while the pitching staff was one of the worst in the game. In the end, the Twins fired long-time general manager Terry Ryan. A roster reconstruction was needed and Minnesota's young core needed more time to develop. It was time for a change but the team's ownership stood behind Molitor.

 

As the hunt started for men to lead the baseball operations department, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made it clear that Paul Molitor wasn't going anywhere. Some thought this might have handcuffed the Twins in their search for new front office personnel. However, the Twins have rarely made changes under Pohlad ownership. For example, the team has employed only three managers since the 1987 campaign. With changes happening in the front office, it was an interesting stance for the owner to take, and now the future is murky.

 

The Future

Molitor's three-year contract is expiring at season's end and this time Pohlad isn't insisting on him returning as manager. He told the Star Tribune that he wants Molitor back for 2018 but that will be up to Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Pohlad said, "I know how much they value the relationship between them and the manager, and the engagement with the whole baseball staff. They are going to make the decision." It will be a decision that won't be made until after the 2017 campaign.

 

Falvey and Levine have already been making changes to the front office. Longtime executive and current scout Wayne Krivsky was fired along with four other scouts. Part of the agreement when Falvey joined the Twins was that he couldn't bring any scouts with him from Cleveland during his first year. That calendar year will be expiring soon and the new front office wants some fresh faces.

 

"The Twins are a proud, historic franchise with a lot of people who are deeply connected to the organization," Falvey said. "We didn't want to make a lot of changes at the outset and bring in a whole new staff. We set a new direction and vision, let people know what expectations were of them, and then let people do their jobs. And we're learning a lot about people."

 

Has Molitor met the expectations of the new front office? Do the Twins need to make the playoffs for him to save his job? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Eephus]

Assuming Molly doesn't have a lot of control over personnel, it's hard to imagine this team (with another manager) could expect to be much better than it is now. Over the long haul there might be a better manager for the team, but seems to be as good or better a chance they'd be a little worse under someone else.

[DocBauer]

Remembering for a moment that I began the "Time to DFA Molitor" thread a few weeks ago...it was a question and not a statement...I confess to mixed feelings about Monitor's possible return.

 

The lack of bullpen quality, and subsequent moves, or lack thereof, in 2015 would seem to fall on the previous administration. (Along with a few other things). Now, was the Pelfrey vs May decision his alone? If so, black mark against him.

 

2016 was a nightmare! But sandwiched between 2015 and 2017, considering holes in the team as well as the influx of new talent getting their feet wet, the whole of 2016 might be considered a horrible aberration.

 

I don't pretend to be a knowitall by any means. But I've watched and learned a lot of baseball over my 45 years as a fan. I've seen the bunt used very effectively as a tool and as a weapon, though it's become a bit of a lost art. I can understand, at times, Molitor wanting to use it, but he uses it too much IMO, especially for a team not adept at it. I have applauded his experimentation with the lineup throughout the year, and seen method in his madness on many occasions, but also felt he got carried away at times. And yet, I think his lineup construction has made more sense the second half than it did the first. (Generally speaking). I have also been driven half crazy by some of his SP and BP usage, pulls, decisions, usage, etc. But once again, I find his decisions and usage to be better as of late.

 

At the end of the day, I see a lot of positives with Molitor, as well as some very frustrating and confusing decisions. I've seen real growth in some of the kids, some solid handling of veterans, trusting in young RP more and more, and a pair of surprising season's. But I feel we just don't know after almost 3 season's who he truly is, as a manager, and what he's trying to do at times.

 

Obviously, the FO is far more attuned to what is taking place daily based on conversation, observation and directives we know nothing about. I could easily see Falvey and Levine telling Molitor, "thanks for the solid job and all your contributions, you've done well, we just see a different future" and move on. But with a couple key additions, further development from the young talent on hand, a couple promotions, I could easily see Molitor back and continuing what is taking shape. Again, we just aren't privy to all the reports, changes, directives, etc.

 

I'm thinking... and this is a stretch...60-40 he's gone because they just see someone better to embrace the development of young players.

[Dantes929]

I think manager position is overrated mostly.   Batting and pitching coaches are probably more important.   A manager is only as good as his players.  To wit, I know a manager who was AL 3rd place and 5 times runner up manager of the year and won manager of the year (IMO, his worst year) all in an 8 year period,   That is 7 top 3 finishes in 8 years.   I think he is still available.     Wouldn't mind Doug M or Mauer.

[beckmt]

To me Molitor's handling of the bullpen is suspect at best.  He is better than some, but I feel a lot are better than him.  He needs a veteran team to manage and this is not it.  Time for him to go.

[Rosterman]

I'm not seeing it. Not sure what the whole organizational picture is. The coaching staff changed, but the results have been glamorous. The Twins are, indeed, in a weak division in some ways. 

 

Who has improved? Who hasn't improved? Is there stability on the 40-man roster, let alone the 25-man roster.

 

Part of it will be the expectations the front office sets for 2018 and beyond. Rebuilding mode, or do they think they have enough pieces (they don't) to remain a contender of sorts in 2018.

 

More interesting to see will be if there ARE major shakeups throughout the minors. If the Twins return to signing lots and lots of minor league free agents, or if they actually push prospects.

 

Be interesting to see if some movements start by people leaving (in the front office) rather than being elt go.

[curt1965]

All professional teams take on the personality of their manager/head coach, IMHO. No doubt Molitor is a true Hall of Famer, an all around terrific player, but I don't see his players play with a lot of intensity. Again, just my opinion.

 

I'm sure it's difficult to succeed in a small market where money and attraction of free agents is difficult. All of us second guess all the managers, and when your team wins everyone is a genius. Molly failed as a hitting coach for Seattle, and very few humans have as much knowledge of hitting than him. So go figure.

 

In the end, I'd like to see the new regime have the say on "their" manager. Personally, I'm a big fan of Dougie Baseball- a guy who has seen many of the current players on the way through the system, and someone who relates to the younger players.

[Platoon]

There is so much we don't know about what goes on behind the scenes. We don't even really know how much influence Molitor has over roster decisions. He uses the word "I" often, but is it real or being a good soldier. So we are left with observations. His dart board lineups have been a constant since he arrived, so are they now driven by the use of analytical metrics, or just the same dart board? He does not seem to relish the youth movement. His preference for mediocre veterans over promising youth seems obvious. His in game decision on pitchers compounds an already poor pitching staff. He does not seem to "think well on his feet", in game time situations. A lot of these are subjective views. But the fact remains, a few years ago this team was considered on a path with the Cubs, and Astros. We aren't anymore. A lot of that falls on Pohlad and Ryan. Ryans gone, Pohlad ain't going anywhere. If Falvine is going to clean house, and change the dynamics of this orginisation, then a logical step is a new face in the dugout. And I would be all for that.

Edited August 15, 2017 by Platoon

[Tommygun921]

Thanks number of times I've seen players miss handled is enough for me to give him the boot. When Kepler first came up last year and hardly played. Busenitz sitting out in the pen for over a week unused. Bullpen management hasn't been very good. I'd be interested to how Jake Mauer would fare as manager. Would Falvine be up for giving him a shot? I don't think Molitor should be back. But unless they can get someone with a good MLB manager track record I'd bring him back. Unless Falvine believes Mauer is ready.

[wsnydes]

I don't disagree with the crowd that says that a manager is only as good as his players.  I also agree that the manager is overrated - not unimportant, just overrated.  However, how a manager uses those players can make a meaningful impact in a game and over the course of a season.  Molitors refusal to platoon players, poor bullpen management, suspect in-game decision making and an overall failure to put players in a position to succeed continue to be issues for me.  A good manager, even with a poor roster, can still do all of those things and squeeze every ounce of blood from the turnip.  I still think Molitor costs this team more wins than he earns them.

 

Just because a roster isn't full of talent, that isn't a reason to keep a poor manager on.  I'd like to see the new FO have their choice in skipper as well.  

Edited August 15, 2017 by wsnydes

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't disagree with the crowd that says that a manager is only as good as his players.  I also agree that the manager is overrated - not unimportant, just overrated.  However, how a manager uses those players can make a meaningful impact in a game and over the course of a season.  Molitors refusal to platoon players, poor bullpen management, suspect in-game decision making and an overall failure to put players in a position to succeed continue to be issues for me.  A good manager, even with a poor roster, can still do all of those things and squeeze every ounce of blood from the turnip.  I still think Molitor costs this team more wins than he earns them.

 

Just because a roster isn't full of talent, that isn't a reason to keep a poor manager on.  I'd like to see the new FO have their choice in skipper as well.  

 

I am somewhat on the fence.  The reason I am on the fence is because the they have considerably outperformed projections and have a great track win percentage in one run games.  They have also completely turned the defense around with the basically the same cast of players.  So, to say he costs them more games than he earns them is a very suspect conclusion.  The facts certainly do not support this conclusion.

Edited August 15, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[Riverbrian]

I had enough issues to be concerned with Molitor last year. 

 

I have had very few issues with Molitor this year. I've been happy with how he has handled the playing time this year.

 

The difference causes me to assume that Paul is listening to his supervisors and trying to execute the playbook. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was ready to move on from Molitor last season. This season, it's not so clear. Two out of three seasons, the team has overperformed.

 

I'd still probably move on from him but it's not the easy decision it once was.

[wsnydes]

 

I am somewhat on the fence.  The reason I am on the fence is because the they have considerably outperformed projections and have a great track win percentage in one run games.  They have also completely turned the defense around with the basically the same cast of players.  So, to say he costs them more games than he earns them is a very suspect conclusion.  The facts certainly do not support this conclusion.

My statement is aimed at in-game decision making where I firmly feel that his questionable decisions cost them more games than they win them.  Good and sound decision making is what I need in a manager.  Prepping players is only part of the job.

 

I also tend to give more credit to the assistant coaches for the improvements in defense.  Admittedly, I don't know how much involvement Molitor has in the day to day aspects of working with players on such things, but it stands to reason that the assistants have more interaction and thus more of an impact.

[Platoon]

The defense has improved. But it took forever for someone to figure out the obvious. That Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario were the best OF options. That Sano was a 3B. That Kurt Suzuki was not a defensive catcher. They still have not figured out that SS is a defensive position. A lot of this falls on Molitor. The question is how much. The Sano to RF and the Buxton to the 3 hole would be alone enough to question his capabilities. Last but certainly not least, the fact that the team is "competitive" in a lousy division is not really a legitimate benchmark for analysis. Instead of being close to mediocre we should finally strive to be close to the best!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The defense has improved. But it took forever for someone to figure out the obvious. That Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario were the best OF options. That Sano was a 3B. That Kurt Suzuki was not a defensive catcher. They still have not figured out that SS is a defensive position. A lot of this falls on Molitor. The question is how much.

I can't give Molitor much of the blame for that stuff. He was certainly a willing participant in the Sano fiasco but he doesn't build the 25 man roster. He was given a bunch of bad defensive players and while he didn't exactly make the most of it, his options were limited.

[hybridbear]

I think a lot of the calls for change are due to a fan base that is frustrated with the losing. I haven't seen much out of Molitor to make me a fan, but I can't say that any of us fans know enough to really question his decisions. There are a lot of decisions that I don't like regarding how he manages his players and the game, but I also don't know enough to judge.

 

I would like to see a more analytical approach overall. If Molitor is embracing the math when it comes to his lineups, player use, pitcher use, etc, then good. If he's resisting the math then it's time for him to go.

 

I also agree with the other comments about the importance of the hitting & pitching coaches. I'm not sure Allen is a good fit at pitching coach for the Twins.

[beckmt]

Allen will probably be gone whether or not Molitor is retained.  Pitching decisions and useage still remain a mystery to Molitor.  That is why I feel he should not be retained.

Also useage of players and lack of handling the youngsters are an issue here.

Mauer will not be the manager until Joe leaves the team, 2019 at the earliest. 

[dbminn]

Molitor has done a good job this year. The team is resilient, even with a shaky pitching staff. The young players have been given the chance to work out of slumps. When they haven't been able to turn it around, they've been given a few days off. Bullpen management has been fine. I wouldn't mind if he was given another couple of years.

 

That being said, I think Molitor will be gone. It's Falvey's team and he will want to bring in his own manager. There will be plenty of interest in the job, considering the development of the young players. Five starters are 25 or younger and all will have had at least 700 PA by the end of the year (all but Polanco will be at 1,000+ PA). Two young SP will be in the rotation and we may finally see more young bullpen arms in 2018. I expect the FO will bring in help via trade and/or FA this offseason too.

 

I am curious about the coaching staff. I think Rowson and Pickel are Falvine's people. Hard to argue with their efforts. I wonder if the FO will let them go too. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think managers are over rated, they are paid like a player that supplies 1 win or less, if anything, they are underpaid and under rated.

 

Most of what a manager does is off the field. We can't see that at all. So, my comments are all about on field tactics.

 

He bunts too much. And please don't argue by comparing him to NL teams. 

I think he handles the bullpen fairly well, using his good pitchers in high leverage situations, and his bad pitchers in blow outs. That said, I think he burns out certain pitchers in that pattern.

Not a super fan of his pinch running for Sano with 1-2 outs late in games. The gain is way too small to lose your best power hitter.

I think challenging Buxon early in the year was a mistake. I don't know if that was him or someone else.

 

all in all, not a huge fan. But, since we can't see most of the work, I guess I'll just sit back and wait.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think managers are over rated, they are paid like a player that supplies 1 win or less, if anything, they are underpaid and under rated.

 

Most of what a manager does is off the field. We can't see that at all. So, my comments are all about on field tactics.

 

He bunts too much. And please don't argue by comparing him to NL teams.

I think he handles the bullpen fairly well, using his good pitchers in high leverage situations, and his bad pitchers in blow outs. That said, I think he burns out certain pitchers in that pattern.

Not a super fan of his pinch running for Sano with 1-2 outs late in games. The gain is way too small to lose your best power hitter.

I think challenging Buxon early in the year was a mistake. I don't know if that was him or someone else.

 

all in all, not a huge fan. But, since we can't see most of the work, I guess I'll just sit back and wait.

Pretty much all of this. I don't know what Molitor does in the clubhouse but it has led to surprising results two out of three times.

 

But his on-field stuff is aggravating in very specific, obvious, and correctable ways.

[wsnydes]

 

I don't think managers are over rated, they are paid like a player that supplies 1 win or less, if anything, they are underpaid and under rated.

 

I like this explanation and I agree with it.  

 

FWIW, my use of "overrated" applies to the fact that managers/coaches get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses.  In the end, the players are making the biggest impact.  It's how a manager puts his players in a situation that is so important.  They do and can have a meaningful impact on a game and a season.  I like how you defined that quite a bit.

[mikelink45]

With the pitching staff and pitching coach that he has had the results are pretty good and I would not object to him returning, but I would hate to have the pitching coach come back.  Pitching coaches do make a difference.  This year we signed the premier pitch framer - how has that worked - we rank 30 in SO, and 8 in BB and left Garver in the minors so we could have Giminez as an extra pitcher.   We are also 26th in batting average allowed.  http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/sort/opponentAvg/order/false

 

So what great HOF manager could win with this staff.  

The complaint is how Molly handled a bullpen - our big additions were Breslow and Belisle for crying out loud.  Consistency is not a word I would use for any of them.  Our bullpen ranks 27 - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-16-30/

 

Our young batters have been inconsistent.  Sano still strikes out too much, Buxton took half a year to progress, Kepler is stuck in league average, Polanco stunk for a month, Dozier took half a year to warm up (again), our catchers cannot achieve the batting average against that their staff allows, and we have had Giminez and Escobar bat 3 and 4 because we only have a three person no bat bench.

 

How much is FO and how much is manager?  I just know that Molitor has exceeded by far what I would expect from this roster. 

[Halsey Hall]

If there is a change next year it'll be interesting at this time to see how many would have rather had Molitor back. 

 

[Platoon]

If as some suggest managers have such little impact on the game, then almost all managerial changes, and salaries, are without justification. This also means that myself, or heaven forbid anyone else on TD would have virtually the same success with a roster in the AL Central as Molitor has? With the exception of myself, I doubt that is true! :). I have never thought managers make players better. That's not that easy, and the extent is limited by the players ability, nature, and work ethic. I don't think a manager can cause a team to perform way over its head. If that was so, hot streaks would remain hot, since the manager was a constant. They don't. I think a managers best quality is allowing players to be their best. To put them in positions that their talents are best suited for, and get out of the way. Talent usually wins, but an over thinking and impulsive manager can negate that fact. And so does playing the "hot hand". What you may gain by that philosophy is lost during the regression to the mean, and the ill will of the player who lost his spot to someone less talented on a fluky streak.

[Mr. Brooks]

Allen will probably be gone whether or not Molitor is retained. Pitching decisions and useage still remain a mystery to Molitor. That is why I feel he should not be retained.

Also useage of players and lack of handling the youngsters are an issue here.

Mauer will not be the manager until Joe leaves the team, 2019 at the earliest.

What's the reason that Mauer can't manage while Joe is still on the team?

They are both professionals and grown men, I don't understand this argument.

[beckmt]

 

What's the reason that Mauer can't manage while Joe is still on the team?
They are both professionals and grown men, I don't understand this argument.

Favoritism is the first thing that comes to mind.  Inability to make a tough decision where you older brother is concerned.  I would not want that situation.  I do not think it would be good for the clubhouse or the team.  We shall see, but Jake is considered where I have seen the best of the Twins minor league managers and would rate the promotion once Joe moves on.

[Mr. Brooks]

Favoritism is the first thing that comes to mind. Inability to make a tough decision where you older brother is concerned. I would not want that situation. I do not think it would be good for the clubhouse or the team. We shall see, but Jake is considered where I have seen the best of the Twins minor league managers and would rate the promotion once Joe moves on.

Jake is the older brother, not Joe.

If he's so unprofessional that he can't objectively manage his brother than I don't want him in the organization at all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jake is the older brother, not Joe.
If he's so unprofessional that he can't objectively manage his brother than I don't want him in the organization at all.

 

I'm not sure anyone said that.....

 

but, if you can't see how it would put them both in an uncomfortable, very public, place, I'm not sure what to say.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not sure anyone said that.....

 

but, if you can't see how it would put them both in an uncomfortable, very public, place, I'm not sure what to say.

I honestly can't.

Not trying to be snide, I just really fail to see how two professional adults would have a problem being objective.

 

I could see in a field like military, or firefighting, when a supervisor might have to choose someone to send into harms way. But in a profession like baseball, I just don't see it.