Article: The Funk And The Fix For Jorge Polanco

[Ted Schwerzler]

As the summer has worn down, the Minnesota Twins have faded. What started out as a surprising season has leveled off some. While the decline has hit some players harder than others, likely no one has felt the dip more than shortstop Jorge Polanco. The question is, what’s wrong, and can he fix it?Signed as an international free agent, Polanco has been with the Twins organization through the entirety of his pro career. He cracked the top 100 prospect lists prior to 2016, and he owns a .757 minor league OPS. Although power isn’t his game, Polanco has always been a bat first player, and extra-base hits have been a byproduct of his quickness. Wondering whether his glove would stick at short became a real question going into 2017, but it’s been his bat that has failed to play.

 

Starting out the season as a positive defensive asset, Polanco has regressed to career norms there. His arm isn’t ideal for shortstop, and it’s contributed to defensive miscues with his glove. In general, this was thought to be something worth overlooking should his bat play. With a .573 OPS on the season, Polanco has now begun to lose playing time.

 

During his 52 game pro debut at the rookie ball level, Polanco owned just a .597 OPS. He was 16 at the time however, and the .573 mark in 79 games for the Twins this year is easily a career worst. What’s promising however is that the struggle doesn’t appear to be reflective of a complete breakdown.

 

Aided by both speed and power, batting average on balls in play is one metric that has fallen off a cliff for Polanco. In 2017, he owns just a .240 BABIP despite posting a .328 mark a season ago. The power has actually taken a slight jump going to a 26% hard hit rate from 23.5% in 2016. While power will never be reflected in home runs for the Twins infielder, the goal will be moderately elevated line drives. That’s quite possibly the biggest explanation for the decline in BABIP, more power but fewer hits.

 

Over his career, Polanco owns a 23.7% line drive rate, and posted a 30.3% mark a year ago. In 2017 however, that number has fallen all the way to 18.2%. In taking a dive in the line drive department, Polanco has added to his ground ball totals, or the least effective place to put the baseball. For a guy hitting the ball out of the park just 3% of the time it’s in the air, having a combined ground ball and fly ball rate of 81.8% is suboptimal.

 

The good news is that Polanco has remained relatively consistent in other aspects of his approach. Pull rates haven’t increased significantly, and while he goes to the opposite field less often, it’s not an egregious change. He also continues to have good command of the strike zone. Polanco’s chase rate of 29.3% is actually down from 33.5% a year ago, while his 87.6% contact rate and 5.6% swinging strike rate are both career bests.

(Baseball Savant)

What this boils down to are two key differences between this year and last. First and foremost, the lack of positive results is easily attributed to lower success outcomes of batted balls. Polanco has watched his launch angle trend downwards in 2017, driving the ball into the ground more consistently. As evidenced in the charts from Baseball Savant, Polanco’s 2016 approach was conducive to line drives, while 2017 has been an opposite story.

 

Second, and maybe more concerning of the two, is Polanco’s pitch recognition. In the radial charts from 2016 and 2017, we can see that this season has produced many fewer well-hit balls. Whether a result of being out on his front foot, or unable to identify what’s coming in, well-struck balls have been elusive. Given the logic that a squared up baseball is more likely to be productive, it’s in the quality of contact that the Twins shortstop has also been hampered.

(Baseball Savant)

Going forward, there are some takeaways to be had here. Despite being out of options, Polanco is just 24 years old. He has yet to play in a full season’s worth of big league games (157 in his career), and remains a work in progress. Going through his first true professional struggle, I’d like to see him take the bulk of the game reps the rest of the way in 2017. He isn’t going to work himself out of the issues on the bench, and he remains a very key piece of the future success the Twins should experience.

 

For a guy who has shown an innate ability to avoid strikeouts and put the bat on the ball, his pitch recognition and eye have always been his calling card. It’s fair to question whether that may slip for an aging veteran, but it really shouldn’t be happening to a 24 year old. There’s no doubt Polanco is in a frustrating funk, but there’re very obvious areas to target for improvement.

 

At some point down the line, a few month stretch in 2017 will likely be a blip on the radar. I’d imagine Jorge Polanco would like to make that thought a reality sooner rather than later.

 

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[jimbo92107]

I think Polanco has lost a little sting in his swing. He should keep the bat head back longer, more like Rosario does. Right now Polanco's bat head is coming around too early, which means he doesn't get much outward snap, which means the barrel isn't traveling as fast as it could or staying square through the hitting zone as long as it could. A round, slap swing is never going to be as powerful or effective as an outward snap-and-carry swing, like Rosario, Morneau or Kepler. 

[Taildragger8791]

I think Polanco has lost a little sting in his swing. He should keep the bat head back longer, more like Rosario does. Right now Polanco's bat head is coming around too early, which means he doesn't get much outward snap, which means the barrel isn't traveling as fast as it could or staying square through the hitting zone as long as it could. A round, slap swing is never going to be as powerful or effective as an outward snap-and-carry swing, like Rosario, Morneau or Kepler.

 

I don't know a lot about swing mechanics but Rosario has pretty elite hand quickness and wrist strength, and an innate feel for making contact. Can Polanco realistically reproduce that swing successfully?

[DocBauer]

Really, really nice article. But going to offer a bit of a caveat. I remember when he was first signed. The mantra then was, a glove first SS with speed and hope the bat would come around. After his first couple of seasons it did come around. And while he would begin the year as a top of the order hitter, he was slid down to the 3 hole as his team's best overall hitter.

 

I really hate to beat a dead horse who's carcass is long dead and dried out in the plains of "somewhere", but the previous administration really blew his development. His quality and "unexpected" quality defense at SS to begin this season points to such. Molitor even talked early on about his mis-handling.

 

He is still very young, and as pointed out, has yet to play a full season in ML time. And yet, some want to dismiss him. This is so, so misguided. Can't we allow, just a smidge, of development time, much less the recent loss of his grandfather about midseason time that may have affected him?

 

Why does everyone think and expect every talented prospect under the age of 25 to be the next Harper or Trout or they are trash?

 

I'm sure Polanco needs to make adjustments. I'm sure he needs AB to make such. And maybe his best spot is 2B. Time will tell. And I've seen a few plays defensively that left me wondering. But at least 2-1, I've seen good-great defensive plays.

 

Once again, can we just stop every 25 and under prospect/player being a bust because they aren't all stars?

[Mr. Brooks]

 

Once again, can we just stop every 25 and under prospect/player being a bust because they aren't all stars?

I didn't see that said, or even implied, anywhere in the article or replies.

[yarnivek1972]

I didn't see that said, or even implied, anywhere in the article or replies.

It has certainly been said in other posts. I can't even count how many DFA/phantom DL Polanco posts I've seen. Plenty of calls for Buxton to get sent down as late as June as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm personally pretty convinced the problem has more to do with the death in his family than anything. He's been pretty bad since coming back from bereavement. When you lose someone close, it takes more than a few days to clear that up, and on major league team, he doesn't exactly have the time/space to process it all.

[bighat]

Nice article, thanks for working to put all this together!  Great stats.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm personally pretty convinced the problem has more to do with the death in his family than anything. He's been pretty bad since coming back from bereavement. When you lose someone close, it takes more than a few days to clear that up, and on major league team, he doesn't exactly have the time/space to process it all.

I know nothing about the particulars of the situation, but it is a pretty stark contrast.

 

2017, pre-bereavement list:

198 PA, .251/.299/.358, 72 wRC+, 7.1 BB%, 11.6 K%, .106 ISO, .272 BABIP

 

2017, post-bereavement list:

116 PA, .150/.207/.224, 7 wRC+, 6.9 BB%, 19.8 K%, .075 ISO, .179 BABIP

[MN_ExPat]

I think if you compound the loss with the added pressure of trying to perform in the world's highest stage, it would make sense.   

 

All of us have lost people extremely close to us, and I don't doubt he is not fully back from it.   When you add the pressure of playing a game that celebrates failure such as baseball does and dealing with fan expectations (and the player's own even more so), to the possible weakened emotional state... I think we see this.  Polanco's heart just doesn't seem all there, not that he doesn't care, but everyone processes that loss differently.

 

I also offer this thought.   Fans and many sportswriters were very critical of his defense much of last year.   At the start of this season, you could just look at his body language and see an almost maniacal focus on his glove work.   On the flip side of that, he almost seemed to loose focus of his offense somewhat as if he was so intent on improving his defense to prove himself as a valuable teammate. 

 

Maybe I'm a moron and I don't know baseball near as well as I think I do (probably true), but I have spent a lot of time having to learn to read people and body posture/language (seems to happen in the military and law enforcement a lot... hmmm) so take it for what it's worth.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I'm personally pretty convinced the problem has more to do with the death in his family than anything. He's been pretty bad since coming back from bereavement. When you lose someone close, it takes more than a few days to clear that up, and on major league team, he doesn't exactly have the time/space to process it all.

I find that the older I get, the more/better equipped I become to cope with grief and adversity. He's still a young man, and may not have as much experience with such things. I don't know that any of this is the case, and human beings are more complex than this, but I can see how this could be one of many contributing factors. 

[Loosey]

I agree with Doc.  I think ever since there has been a bigger focus and access to minor leaguers and prospects, expectations have started to become unreasonable.  10-15 years ago we rarely heard of anyone not knocking on the door the major leagues.  Now we know about every player in the system with some degree of detail.  When we begin to see a player have success in Rookie ball up through AA, I think we start to dream about what could be.  Now when they falter we get upset and call them busts.

[Doomtints]

I agree with the sentiments expressed here. There is nothing inherently wrong with Polanco. His slump is absolutely normal for a young player.

 

The data we have access to measures results, but not the approach. Coaches work on the approach. All the best data in the world won't help someone coach the kid properly as to what to do. Until we start looking at film we have no chance of knowing more than the Twins coaches when it comes to coaching a player.

[ND-Fan]

I agree with the above posts that this has something to do with loss Polanco is dealing with. Then add in pressure playing at major league level and being away from family and things can get away from somebody pretty quickly. This such mental game and if your not at top your game it will get better of you. I wonder if the Twins could give time off and here soon because he is not doing anybody any good the way it is now. I believe that also happened to Joe Mauer for couple years getting married and then having Twins it distracts from the players mental focus to where it effects there performance. We see it in all types of businesses why not in Baseball because these are still people who are effected by many things in their personal lives more than we know.

[Tomj14]

Could it be that we hoped he was better than he is? I mean not this bad but not as good as last year?

After looking at his minor league stats I not really seeing anything that screams he was supposed to be anything more than 3rd infielder type. .286/.346/.411 in 7 minor leagues seasons.

He is still young, so hopefully he can be something similar to his minor league numbers in the majors.

 

[beckmt]

Problem for Polonco is time.  Next year we will have a crowded middle infileld with Escobar, Adrianza, Dozier and Gordon.  Something has to give people.  Who do we trade, do we have to DFA a player due to lack of playing spots.  Twins cannot carry 5 middle infielders, unless Dozier is traded this issue will be here next spring and Polanco is the worst SS defender of the group, So unless you package him up or trade Dozier one of the three shortstops will not be here next year.  At the current time, that player could well be Polanco.

[Jham]

I was a big believer in Polanco a couple years ago because I thought he'd develop some power. He seems to have lost all aggression. Stopped trying to drive the ball. Seems to happen to a lot of our young hitters...

[jorgenswest]

Polanco should have another half season and that is plenty of time for hi, to show the Twins he can hit.

 

Nick Gordon will benefit from time in AAA and the Twins need to make sure he comes up fundamentally sound and skilled at shortstop.

 

Escobar and Dozier have one year left on their contracts. Escobar could be moved to make room for Gordon if Polanco establishes his bat by next July. If Polanco isn't hitting, he probably is headed towards a Danny Santana career.

 

Adrianza can continue in a utility role. He will not be blocking Gordon from coming up mid season.

 

All five can coexist until the next trading deadline and it is quite possible the depth will be needed.

[yarnivek1972]

Escobar doesn't have a contract for 2018. He isn't eligible for FA, but it seems unlikely that the Twins will pay what he will get in arbitration if the plan is for him to be a reserve. As a reserve, Adrianza is more than capable and Vielma is more than capable as a second reserve. So, Escobar will likely be tapped to be the starter at SS next year or be non-tendered.

[nicksaviking]

Seems to me perhaps the best predictor of MLB success is if a guy in the minors can avoid strikeouts and draw some walks.

 

Though obviously there's not a hard and fast rule about taking good at bats in the minors, these are the types of players I  tend to worry about the least. I'd certainly be disappointed if he didn't get another shot to redeem himself next year particularly considering even in this down year, he's somehow improved both his BB% and K% by a significant margin.

[darin617]

A demotion to the minors is an easy way to light a fire under a slumping player. If he doesn't bounce back you at least gave him time to work out the kinks.

[yarnivek1972]

A demotion to the minors is an easy way to light a fire under a slumping player. If he doesn't bounce back you at least gave him time to work out the kinks.

That would be a fantastic idea. If Polanco had minor league options remaining.

[drjim]

 

Seems to me perhaps the best predictor of MLB success is if a guy in the minors can avoid strikeouts and draw some walks.

 

Though obviously there's not a hard and fast rule about taking good at bats in the minors, these are the types of players I  tend to worry about the least. I'd certainly be disappointed if he didn't get another shot to redeem himself next year particularly considering even in this down year, he's somehow improved both his BB% and K% by a significant margin.

 

BBs and Ks are certainly very important, but will only take you so long if you can't hit with some pop. That is the main concern with Polanco this year. His k and bb rates have improved from last year, but the ISO (and BABIP) dropped significantly. Just not hitting with any authority. I would normally think this means there is a minor injury but haven't heard anything.

 

He had some mixed results with his power in the minors, but I thought he had turned the corner last year, and now has regressed quite a bit.

[bluechipper]

Polanco's already got as many hits in August as he had all of July. You have to start somewhere.

[USAFChief]

Could it be that we hoped he was better than he is? I mean not this bad but not as good as last year?

After looking at his minor league stats I not really seeing anything that screams he was supposed to be anything more than 3rd infielder type. .286/.346/.411 in 7 minor leagues seasons.

He is still young, so hopefully he can be something similar to his minor league numbers in the majors.

concur.

 

He's never been a difference maker as a hitter, I see no reason to believe he'll become one.

[drjim]

 

Polanco's already got as many hits in August as he had all of July. You have to start somewhere.

 

Wow, I never saw a July split for Polanco. That's amazing.

 

308/357/462 in August!

[drjim]

 

concur.

He's never been a difference maker as a hitter, I see no reason to believe he'll become one.

 

Probably not a difference maker, but still think he has a league average-ish potential. Those types of players are important to fill out a competitive roster.

[USAFChief]

Probably not a difference maker, but still think he has a league average-ish potential. Those types of players are important to fill out a competitive roster.

Eh...thats how you end up with Danny Santana, hoping he can someday become "league average." I think you need to aim higher than that, at every position, so that if some players DON'T reach their potential, you DO end up with league average as a fall back.

 

What happens when you hope for league average and they don't develop? Or even if all your players do reach their potential of league average?

 

That doesn't get you very far.

[drjim]

 

Eh...thats how you end up with Danny Santana, hoping he can someday become "league average." I think you need to aim higher than that, at every position, so that if some players DON'T reach their potential, you DO end up with league average as a fall back.

What happens when you hope for league average and they don't develop? Or even if all your players do reach their potential of league average?

That doesn't get you very far.

 

So sure you want elite at every position and should strive for it. I don't think Polanco should be given infinite chances and there should be very clear backup plans in spring training next year. And at the very least, he can be a utility guy while he is still pre-arb.

 

But he was league average as recently as last year. I'm not sure that is so farfetched, and would allow resources to go to plugging more gaping holes in the interim.

[howeda7]

I still think Polanco can be a .280 hitter with good gap power. As little and as poorly as he's played, he just hit his 18th double tonight. Rosario hit is 22nd. Pretty surprising. He's got to pick the defense back up though. Ultimately, I think he can be an above average 2B on both ends.