Article: DET 9, MIN 6: Twins Drop to Third in Division, 2.5 Games Back

[Tom Froemming]

With an ugly loss to Detroit Sunday, the Twins dropped to third place in the AL Central, and they’re now 2.5 games out of first place. The team had its opportunities to win this ballgame, but just couldn’t put together a sustained rally. The bullpen giving up seven runs didn’t help, either.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays Per WPA (via Fangraphs)

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Download attachment: TopPlays723.png

The Twins had a golden opportunity to seize this game in the bottom of the seventh. Down 4-2, Eddie Rosario led off the inning with a single, which was followed by a Joe Mauer pinch-hit walk. Max Kepler laid down a picturesque bunt on the first pitch he saw. There was absolutely nothing Detroit could do with it, as Max got a single to load the bases.

 

Jason Castro came off the bench and was called out on strikes. Zack Granite hit a ball on the ground that should have ended the inning, but instead was booted by Ian Kinsler, allowing a run to score. Just as it seemed the Tigers were going out of their way to give this game away, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar both struck out with the bases juiced. Escobar’s at-bat was an epic 13-pitch battle.

 

So, just to review, the Twins managed to strike out three times with the bases loaded and hit a double play ball (that was misplayed) all in the same inning. That’s tough to do. Here is that Kinsler error:

The Tigers added two more runs in the eighth, extending their lead to 6-3, but the Twins continued to battle back. Mauer delivered a one-out single that scored Robbie Grossman and Rosario. Kepler grounded out and Castro struck out swinging. Detroit added another three runs in the ninth.

 

The Twins defense didn’t have a banner day, either. Jorge Polanco, Chris Gimenez and Adalberto Mejia were all charged with errors in the third inning. Mejia now leads all pitchers with four errors on the season.

At four hours and 19 minutes, this was the longest nine-inning game in Twins history. Miguel Sano struck out four times. Mejia gave up two runs (one earned) over 4.1 innings. Escobar provided one of the bright moments for the Twins, hammering a long two-run homer in the third inning. Dozier also went deep in the bottom of the ninth.

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

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Monday

Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu), 9:10 pm CT

 

Ryu, who made just one start over the previous two seasons, will be activated off the DL to make this start. He was recovering from a left foot contusion. The lefty has a 4.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 on the season.

Rumors swirled about Colon considering retirement, and the Twins tried to add Jaime Garcia to the rotation, so you’d figure one way or another there’s a good chance this is Colon’s final start. In four career starts at Dodger Stadium, Bartolo has a 6.08 ERA.

 

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[bluechipper]

This is the second worst loss of the season for me. Castro pinch hitting for Polanco is one of the worst moves ever made by Molitor, and that's saying a lot.

[wsnydes]

LEN III reporting that Breslow was DFAd after the game.

[Mr. Brooks]

Somebody failed (either manager or FO) if Jason Castro is ever pinch hitting with the bases loaded in a close game.

[mikelink45]

WOW - this game brought out the worst of the Twins and the worst of us commentators.  Sano striking out four times really stinks.  Sorry Miguel but not touching the ball is horrible, much worse than grounding out, even much worse than a DP - did you see Kinsler butcher a DP and allow us a run - that is what happens when balls are in play.  A K does nothing, allows for nothing positive - it just stinks.

 

The BP did a masterful job and this is not a winning team, not a team in contention.  It is the kind of team we are supposed to beat.  Who gets the Twins player of the day - I guess it must be Kepler for a wonderful bunt, but how sad that that is our highlight.  Now in third place.  Come on Twins - get some inspiration from the 87 Team.  They were not good either, they just refused to lose 

[Han Joelo]

Listening, I was thinking to myself that this might be it for Breslow. Demoralizing loss, for sure. Still, this team is so much better than last years. They've gotten up off the mat over and over; let's see if they have another in them.

[drjim]

Somehow the Twins have always rebounded this season when on the mat, but this weekend really feels like it could be the end.

 

Bungled a trade, played ugly against a team starting to sell and now headed to the best team in baseball. Go get em boys.

[twinssouth]

Great job on your game updates Tom. I look forward to reading these

[jun]

WOW - this game brought out the worst of the Twins and the worst of us commentators.  Sano striking out four times really stinks.  Sorry Miguel but not touching the ball is horrible, much worse than grounding out, even much worse than a DP - did you see Kinsler butcher a DP and allow us a run - that is what happens when balls are in play.  A K does nothing, allows for nothing positive - it just stinks.

 

The BP did a masterful job and this is not a winning team, not a team in contention.  It is the kind of team we are supposed to beat.  Who gets the Twins player of the day - I guess it must be Kepler for a wonderful bunt, but how sad that that is our highlight.  Now in third place.  Come on Twins - get some inspiration from the 87 Team.  They were not good either, they just refused to lose

Twins player of the day: Escobar

[jun]

The front office has to get some help. Like it or not the AL is mediocre beyond Houston. The players have the want to and battle they are just a couple people away from being more competitive. I would try and trade for Cozart or Andrus at SS. See if we can move Polanco. Maybe the Phillies would take a picher, outfielder and Polanco for Neshek. Need a bullpen piece, Neshek fits that bill.

Why would you trade for SS? Escobar and Andrianza play well both offensively and defensively. It would be nice if Polanco can be traded.

[jun]

Polanco and Tonkin for Neshek would be a good deal. Polanco is young and has upside.

[DJSim22]

 

The front office has to get some help. Like it or not the AL is mediocre beyond Houston. The players have the want to and battle they are just a couple people away from being more competitive. I would try and trade for Cozart or Andrus at SS. See if we can move Polanco. Maybe the Phillies would take a picher, outfielder and Polanco for Neshek. Need a bullpen piece, Neshek fits that bill.

 

So you are willing to trade some of the top pieces in the minors to get this done?  Need to sign Cozart too. 

 

[DJSim22]

 

 

Polanco and Tonkin for Neshek would be a good deal.

 

Polanco still could be a good 2b, soph slump?  Would Philly even want Tonkin? 

[70charger]

 

Polanco and Tonkin for Neshek would be a good deal. Polanco is young and has upside.

 

Polanco alone for Neshek would be a massive overpay and worthy of the crucifixion we'd give the deal on this site.

[jun]

Polanco alone for Neshek would be a massive overpay and worthy of the crucifixion we'd give the deal on this site.

This is the overpay the Twins could easily afford.

[HitInAPinch]

Veteran team vs. young, developing team.  What were the odds.......

 

The reports I've read re: Phillies trading Neshek, is that Neshek could be had for a minor leaguer.  Now, there are more teams involved.  If the Twins really wanted him, it's probably too late.

 

re:  Eduardo Escobar:  I wouldn't trade him.  He really has value for the Twins right now.

[beckmt]

Polanco really is the issue here.  He may not make the team next year unless you unload Dozier somewhere, so using him as a piece in a trade to me is a very good use of assets.  

This can be decided over the next week as the Twins could fall out of it and choose to sell. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

WOW - this game brought out the worst of the Twins and the worst of us commentators. Sano striking out four times really stinks. Sorry Miguel but not touching the ball is horrible, much worse than grounding out, even much worse than a DP - did you see Kinsler butcher a DP and allow us a run - that is what happens when balls are in play. A K does nothing, allows for nothing positive - it just stinks.

 

The BP did a masterful job and this is not a winning team, not a team in contention. It is the kind of team we are supposed to beat. Who gets the Twins player of the day - I guess it must be Kepler for a wonderful bunt, but how sad that that is our highlight. Now in third place. Come on Twins - get some inspiration from the 87 Team. They were not good either, they just refused to lose

Your strikeout is worse than a double play take is awful. Let's say 75% of the time a dp ball actually becomes a dp, 20% of the time, only one out is recorded, and 5% of the time, no outs are recorded. The expected outs for a ball hit at a middle infielder in a dp situation is therefore 1.7--which is obviously far worse than the worst case scenario of one out from the strikeout.

[bluechipper]

 

Polanco really is the issue here.  He may not make the team next year unless you unload Dozier somewhere, so using him as a piece in a trade to me is a very good use of assets.  

This can be decided over the next week as the Twins could fall out of it and choose to sell. 

Polanco could hit under .200 for the year and would still easily make the team next year. He's always shown he can hit prior to this year, and the defense has taken a step forward. He's too talented to give up on at his lowest value right now.

[Tomj14]

 

Your strikeout is worse than a double play take is awful. Let's say 75% of the time a dp ball actually becomes a dp, 20% of the time, only one out is recorded, and 5% of the time, no outs are recorded. The expected outs for a ball hit at a middle infielder in a dp situation is therefore 1.7--which is obviously far worse than the worst case scenario of one out from the strikeout.

I agree with your take, but it seems with the base loaded and no outs, at least a double play scores a run, and with how horrible the twins have been with the bases loaded (might not actually be true but does seem true of late) they could use a run.  

They had the bases loaded with no outs, K, botched double play, K, K. 1 run!

That is the kind of thing that happens when you get little to no offensive from you Catcher, SS and centerfielder.

[Kwak]

 

I agree with your take, but it seems with the base loaded and no outs, at least a double play scores a run, and with how horrible the twins have been with the bases loaded (might not actually be true but does seem true of late) they could use a run.  

They had the bases loaded with no outs, K, botched double play, K, K. 1 run!

That is the kind of thing that happens when you get little to no offensive from you Catcher, SS and centerfielder.

You forgot Sano in your "little to no" comment.  Though, Cabrera's 0'fer balanced the scale, it's still another blank mixed in the line-up.

[bighat]

That circus play (Kepler to Dozier to EMPTY SPACE to Mejia to EMPTY SPACE) was just awful.

 

Escobar's homer was crushed.  His defensive range isn't that great but his bat is necessary and he should be batting 2nd every day. He's played his way into the every day roster...doesn't he do that every year?

 

Sano needs to stop trying to hit HRs and go back to hitting singles the other way.  When he's in a strikeout funk it's really bad.

 

Polanco has absolutely gone down in flames over the past 2 months. At this point he's looking at Adrianza and Escobar ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Good riddance, Breslow.

 

Remember when the Twins were absolutely unbeatable on the road? They need to fall back on that trend, pronto. I'll be watching the games against LAD for sure. This series could be the make-or-break series for the season.

[jun]

Polanco could hit under .200 for the year and would still easily make the team next year. He's always shown he can hit prior to this year, and the defense has taken a step forward. He's too talented to give up on at his lowest value right now.

I think his defense has take a step backward, he has made plenty of errors lately and he leads the team in errors made.

[Deduno Abides]

This is the overpay the Twins could easily afford.

It would be bad to trade four years of a major league middle infielder for half a season of a middle reliever, who is unlikely to make a difference in making the playoffs and has the type of stuff that typically doesn't play in the playoffs.

[Tomj14]

 

You forgot Sano in your "little to no" comment.  Though, Cabrera's 0'fer balanced the scale, it's still another blank mixed in the line-up.

Agreed I meant for the year not this game.

I just don't see how you can have Polanco in the lineup when Granite is playing. IMO

[bluechipper]

 

I think his defense has take a step backward, he has made plenty of errors lately and he leads the team in errors made.

Lately, I would agree with you, but overall for the season he has been better than we've seen in the past.

[bluechipper]

 

That circus play (Kepler to Dozier to EMPTY SPACE to Mejia to EMPTY SPACE) was just awful.

 

Escobar's homer was crushed.  His defensive range isn't that great but his bat is necessary and he should be batting 2nd every day. He's played his way into the every day roster...doesn't he do that every year?

 

Sano needs to stop trying to hit HRs and go back to hitting singles the other way.  When he's in a strikeout funk it's really bad.

 

Polanco has absolutely gone down in flames over the past 2 months. At this point he's looking at Adrianza and Escobar ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Good riddance, Breslow.

 

Remember when the Twins were absolutely unbeatable on the road? They need to fall back on that trend, pronto. I'll be watching the games against LAD for sure. This series could be the make-or-break series for the season.

The circus play would never have happened if Escobar didn't let that double play grounder go under his glove. His bat has been good, but the defense has taken a big step backward this year in my eyes.

[bluechipper]

Also, did it annoy anyone else that Dick made the same mistake in all 3 games in saying Justin Upton was the lone Tigers All Star? Michael Fulmer made the team too. I'm surprised no one corrected him on this.

Edited July 24, 2017 by bluechipper

[Tom Froemming]

Dug up some new numbers I figured I'd pass along.

 

Since the All-Star break, the Twins have 20 PAs with the bases loaded, which is the most in all of baseball. They're 3 for 17 (.177) with a couple sac flys, a walk and five strikeouts. With RISP since the break, they have a 25.2 K% and .595 OPS.

 

Ouch. I guess the good news is they're getting a lot of guys on base.

[mikelink45]

 

Your strikeout is worse than a double play take is awful. Let's say 75% of the time a dp ball actually becomes a dp, 20% of the time, only one out is recorded, and 5% of the time, no outs are recorded. The expected outs for a ball hit at a middle infielder in a dp situation is therefore 1.7--which is obviously far worse than the worst case scenario of one out from the strikeout.

I understand what you are saying, but you are picking one thing out of the context that I am tired of Ks and 4 is terrible.  Yes one could have been a DP, but I would take in exchange for four contact swings.  The DP is a potential, but so is a hit, an error, a fielder's choice...Do you remember the misplay of a DP ball in yesterday's game - we ended up scoring a run.