Article: Twins Now A Destination For Pitching

[Ted Schwerzler]

Going into 2017, arguably the biggest question mark for the Minnesota Twins was on the mound. Who could be counted upon in the starting rotation? Who would take the ball in relief? With no real moves made to bulk up either corps, there could have been cause for panic. However, the Twins have flipped the script on an old narrative.This summer, Minnesota finds themselves in the thick of a hotly contested race for the AL Central title. Thank in part to overachievement on their end, and underwhelming results from the Cleveland Indians, Paul Molitor’s club remains on the heels of the division leader. Down the stretch it will be pitching that ends up being the difference maker.

 

Over the course of the past few weeks, the Twins will have acquired two-fifths of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. With Bartolo Colon being joined by Jaime Garcia, Minnesota has welcomed two National League pitchers. Despite a generally accepted downtick in moving from the National to American League, both pitchers find solace in what the Twins have to offer.

 

First, Colon came over to the Twins after spurning the Mets, a club he had previously played for. Noting the ability to compete for a postseason berth, Colon stood to improve upon his 2017 showing. With an ERA north of 8.00 for Atlanta, the once heralded strike thrower has apparently abandoned his pinpoint accuracy. After owning an MLB best 58% zone rate (pitches thrown in zone) a season ago, he’d dipped all the way to 49% this season.

 

While Baseball Prospectus’ numbers help to highlight inefficiency this season for Colon, they also may signify a roster deficiency he was affected by. In 2016 pitching for the Mets, both Rene Rivera and Travis d’Arnaud found themselves graded favorably by StatCorner’s oStr% (pitches out of the zone called strikes) as well as calls generated. Conversely, Kurt Suzuki (now the Braves catcher) ranked among the league’s worst. He’s continued to be a poor receiver in 2017, albeit not to the extent of a year ago. It should be noted however that battery mate, Tyler Flowers does grade out well.

 

Although what happens behind the plate is just a small part of pitching, it’s understandably part of the equation. For Colon, and maybe more importantly the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, defense comes into play as well.

 

A season ago, the Twins -49 DRS (defensive runs saved) ranked as the third worst mark in all of baseball. The club also owned the third lowest UZR (ultimate zone rating). Not only did they not make good baseball plays, but the club also was unable to track down and convert balls in play into outs. Fast-forward to 2017, and Minnesota finds themselves eighth in DRS (18) and 11th (8.5) in UZR. The uptick has created a stark contrast year over year.

 

Despite not addressing pitching this offseason, the Twins did take it upon themselves to improve in a different way. While much was made about Jason Castro’s pitch framing behind the plate, his overall impact can’t be overstated. Yes, he’s an above average receiver, but he also calls a strong game and represents a monumental swing from what the Twins employed in the past.

 

In bringing Castro into the fold, the Twins helped their pitchers behind the dish, and it is the maturation of their youth that has helped in the field. Miguel Sano brings up the rear of the club being worth -8 DRS at the hot corner, but Jorge Polanco being average (0 DRS) at SS has been a massive boost. Byron Buxton paces all big league center fielders with 18 DRS, and trails only the Red Sox Mookie Betts (24 DRS) among outfielders. Pairing him on a nightly basis with Max Kepler (5 DRS) only strengthens the outfield. Throw in Joe Mauer currently the best defensive first basemen not named Brandon Belt, and you’ve got a solid situation.

 

As a whole, the Twins decided to overlook pitching for the most part. What they’ve done instead is raise the level of the pitchers they do employ by making sure everything else is at a higher level. Thanks in part to the defense Minnesota has constructed around the mound, the organization now is in a place to offer that as a selling point to prospective hurlers in the coming months. Whether or not the Twins sign or deal for any names over the offseason, they have one heck of a sales pitch to make.

 

Is there always going to be some level of uncertainty when it comes to a guy with a bloated ERA from the opposite league, or coming off some sort of injury? Absolutely. On the flip side though, there’s also a very real notion that because of the infrastructure the Twins have in place, they offer the opportunity to make any newcomers better. Whether that guy is an ace of another staff or not, it stands to reason that the eight supporting cast members on the diamond are finally a selling point for Minnesota.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

The upside potential is something very real for this team as a whole.  I would speculate that this alone would attract some pitching.  Not the high-buck-type, but certainly some in the middle range may be interested.  Going into, what?, their 3rd season together, this team could really flourish next season. With some minor tweaks.  

 

Move Polanco back to 2nd.  I really like Dozier, but let's face 2 things:

1.  Dozier is probably the Twins most tradeable asset

2.  Polanco is much better a 2nd.  Looks a lot more comfortable.

3.  Putting a more defensive-minded on the field everyday would attract more pitchers

 

Build the bullpen.  Currently [and realistically] the Twins current bullpen consists of 3 people:  Duffey, Rogers and Kintzler.  That won't cut it another year.

 

Get more that a couple hitters to stop swinging at balls really low/outside and REALLY outside of their reach.

 

Get every Twins position player to attend a Fernando Tatis clinic.  Worked pretty well for Sano. 

 

 

[mikelink45]

I continue to be fascinated with the Castro compliments.  Besides the fact that he cannot hit, Baseball Prospectus has him 9th  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425.

 

Now if I give him credit for Santana, Berrios, Rogers, and Kinzler, who gets the blame for the other 24 pitchers - yes we have had 28 pitchers this year if we include Giminez and why not include him, he has been better than some.

 

Yes there is value in catcher abilities, but I believe we are in an age where that is being overrated.  I would like to see us get Garver or someone with a little more offense as the second catcher.  Ultimately great pitchers pitch great and lousy pitchers are just lousy.  Steal a strike once in a while, fine, but we also have to score some more runs. 

 

[OldFartAtPlay]

I'm not sure I agree with the idea of Minnesota becoming a "destination for pitching" since I doubt any high-end free agents would be willing to sign with the Twins. But the fact remains that the team's defense has improved a great deal over last year. The outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler is the best I've seen here (or many other places,) in a long time. Catching is much better than anytime since Mr. Mauer had to relinquish the tools of ignorance. And the infield play has been solid and at (many) times exceptional. I can see trading Dozier and moving Polanco to second except for a growing worry about Mr. Polanco and his hitting. He seems worn out and before the Allstar break seemed to have more problems with his fielding. For now I hope to see much more of Mr. Adrianza who has been quite good. Eduardo Escobar will probably be traded but I hope not. I love his glove at third and short and his bat continues to impress. As for Miguel Sano, he is my very favorite player and continues to impress with both bat and glove.  If pitchers look at things besides money, like maybe the defensive and offensive strength of a club (meaning: a chance to win and get into the post season,) I guess it's possible they may begin to look at the Twins as destination. Hey! I argued myself into believing!

[KirbyDome89]

"Jason Castro’s overall impact can’t be overstated."

 

It can, and it often is. Removing Sano and Grossman from the OF and replacing them with Buxton and Kepler is HUGE. Polanco has surprised a bit at short, and we already knew Mauer could play above average defense at 1B. Castro can be solid behind the plate and that plays a part in the equation as well. However, there is extreme dissonance between the "Castro has brought this staff out of the depths," narrative and reality, which is that the staff is still horrible, and without a career year from Ervin it would've already imploded. 

[old nurse]

The premise that Minnesota is a destination for pitchers based on Colon signing?  The improving defense helps the team, the rest is dependent on money offered.

[Thrylos]

I'd wait for top free agents to snub New York and LA to come to Minnesota, and then I'd call it a "destination". 

 

Short of that, it attracts mediocrity, as usually.

Edited July 21, 2017 by Thrylos

[yarnivek1972]

I continue to be fascinated with the Castro compliments. Besides the fact that he cannot hit, Baseball Prospectus has him 9th http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425.

 

Now if I give him credit for Santana, Berrios, Rogers, and Kinzler, who gets the blame for the other 24 pitchers - yes we have had 28 pitchers this year if we include Giminez and why not include him, he has been better than some.

 

Yes there is value in catcher abilities, but I believe we are in an age where that is being overrated. I would like to see us get Garver or someone with a little more offense as the second catcher. Ultimately great pitchers pitch great and lousy pitchers are just lousy. Steal a strike once in a while, fine, but we also have to score some more runs.

This

[Deduno Abides]

The Cubs attracted pitchers even with Wellington Castillo and then Miguel Montero behind the plate. The catcher may not be as critical as some believe. Interestingly, of course, their key catchers in the World Series were Ross and Contreras, who may be better defensively than Castro and Giminez.

[Deduno Abides]

A healthy, enjoyable culture, comfort with management, and plans for success that seem reasonable or inspired in comparison to the rest of the league are probably the top three elements for attracting players, assuming the money is reasonably comparable.

Edited July 21, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[Rosterman]

The Twins right now are a destination for pitchers wanting to get a second chance, if they can bump any of the high-priced failures the Twins continue to throw on the mound off the mound.

 

Like two years ago, we are going a bit ga-ga over a barely .500 club in a weak division that has:

 

(1) A rebuilding offense that is inconsistent at best, bad average at worst. Teh good news is that the youngsters should improve over time. But, truly, who is knocking down the door to acquire ANY of the players we put on the field not named Sano? And even those that might show a smidgen of interest that the Twins would be willing to trade for anything, something (Gimenez, Grossman, Adrianza) will not necessarily bring back anything in return.

 

(2) A starting pitcher needs to have an era under 4 in order to win with this team. 

 

(3) The bullpen is a mess. Kintzler, in all liklihood, could be gone. Names like Rucinski, Busenitz, Wimmers, Tonkin might still be bandied around next year. Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Curtiss are in the wings, still. I would not build a pen around Rogers, Duffey, Hildenberger and call it great. Who will close? Can Pressly find the magic pill?

 

(4) The Twins are actually having a good season. Whatever they budgeted for play should be higher than expected unless they have a total fallout come September. They should still be able to weave the magic of going to the game up to State Fair time (and they should be thinking hard-hard-HARD about how to promote the team at the State Fair rather than just running a lame remainder booth).

 

(5) Should they just open the coffers and spend-spend-spend? It might help if they could find a taker for Mauer (be interesting to see what happens when players go on the waiver wire in August...will someone grab Hughes, Mauer, Breslow, Belisle) which is probably when the real movement of some names MIGHT happen with little or nothing in return.

 

(6) The Twins will have quite a few players to protect on the 40-man come this Fall, some of them not likely to contribute in 2018 (i.e. like Rosario, Jorge, Romero and Vielma this year). 

 

BUT BACK TO THE ABOVE! A destination for pitching? Maybe if the Twins do get into the playoffs and can get a set line-up heading towards 2018. We still don't have a great leadoff hitter. Who bats second? Why is Sano batting third ever? Buxton is still at the end of the order. No one knows what to do with Rosario. We still need to commit to a shortstop, and MAYBE should take an early look at Nick Gordon...can it hurt? Or do you NEED to keep him off the 40-man as long as you can (didn't seem to be a problem with Polanco and now you can't send him back down for more seasoning without the risk of losing him, which may/may not be bad at all).

 

I'm happy we are having some wonderful years from Berrios and Santana. That Kintzler is a bright light (shades of Nunez from last season). I'm excited to see if Sano hits 40 home runs. The club is closer to .500 than not, which is a major plus and a good feeling, but there are still so many problems in line-up construction and the bullpen. But there is more good play on the field than bad, or so I like to see it that way.

 

The front office is still working thru things and having a winning team probably hurt more than benefited the new front office from doing massive wholesale changes. The minor league system is shining (so what is the difference between coaching down there and up here). The Twins had a good draft and we might see players pushed a tad more. But the remnants of past drafts are imploding, slowly.

 

I can't wait to see the Twins figure things out (what with the Super Bowl offering competition for the limelight in the off-season) and glad attendance is holding its own (it could've tanked bigtime).

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd guess money is the primary reason one place is a destination or not.

[DocBauer]

Money being equal, were I a FA pitcher seeing this team compete as they are, see the vast improvement in defense, all the talented young players who will only get better, and playing in one of the best ballparks in the league, is be considering Minnesota as a destination spot.

[gil4]

 

yes we have had 28 pitchers this year if we include Giminez and why not include him, he has been better than some.

We still have September call-ups to come - can we get to 50?

 

Yes there is value in catcher abilities, but I believe we are in an age where that is being overrated.  I would like to see us get Garver or someone with a little more offense as the second catcher.  Ultimately great pitchers pitch great and lousy pitchers are just lousy.  Steal a strike once in a while, fine, but we also have to score some more runs.

I think great pitchers get more calls because they hit their spots and the catcher can actually frame it instead of stabbing at it.  I've seen a lot of pitches hit the zone but called balls because the catcher was set up on the other corner.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins Now A Destination For Pitching

To be fair, the Twins have long been a final destination for many pitchers.

 

Still could be, if Colon is any indication...

[Thrylos]

 

I'd guess money is the primary reason one place is a destination or not.

 

Sure, but:  You are in Oregon now.  Compare that with Minnesota. Not only in April through October, but if you have a family, in December through February, as well.

 

I'd take San Diego for lesser $.  Quality of life outside ballgames does matter, and if you are not from Minnesota getting used to living there in the winter can break you.  

[terrydactyls]

Sure, but:  You are in Oregon now.  Compare that with Minnesota. Not only in April through October, but if you have a family, in December through February, as well.

 

I'd take San Diego for lesser $.  Quality of life outside ballgames does matter, and if you are not from Minnesota getting used to living there in the winter can break you.

 

With the money these free agents get, they can live in Monte Carlo in the off season. That should not not be a big factor in deciding where to pitch. The playoffs and World Series possibilities should be the reason for signing.

[DocBauer]

I don't know, I guess I thought a lot of players in all sports had 2 homes for years now. Their seasonal home, bought or rented, and their permanent "home" wherever that may be.