Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided

[gheggs42]

 

Jay has no value. None. Stewart might have a tiny bit of value, but who knows. Jorge is probably a RP going forward. So, a maybe SS and a RP and a 4th OF and a flyer for two legit players that are cost controlled for several years? I can't see Miami doing that. I love Gordon, and even I would most likely do that deal (not having closely examined Straily or Ramos lately) if I thought Straily was a legit pitcher.

After taking a closer look at Straily I see he is outperforming his peripherals and has basically his whole career, but he would be an upgrade in our rotation as it currently sits IMO. Ramos has been pretty solid the last few years, very good K/9, but has struggled this year. What would your offer be?

[Mike Sixel]

 

After taking a closer look at Straily I see he is outperforming his peripherals and has basically his whole career, but he would be an upgrade in our rotation as it currently sits IMO. Ramos has been pretty solid the last few years, very good K/9, but has struggled this year. What would your offer be?

 

I'm not sure, I'd have to look at Straily more closely to know. Until this post, he hasn't even been on my radar!

[Cap'n Piranha]

I can pretty much guarantee that any business, particularly one in the entertainment business, cares about getting blasted in the media.

 

They earn their money by selling their product. Perception of that product is pretty important. They've gone from selling out the season in TFs first season to less than 2/3 full.

 

They care, and what's more, the media would be correct in blasting them, and I think more people than not would agree with that sentiment.

 

As for players, I'm going to guess that things like this matter when FAs decide between competitive offers, too.

I'm sure they care, I'm saying they shouldn't. Build a winner, and it will all work out. I would hate to think that our supposedly advanced and analytical front office is making moves to avoid negative media attention, rather than working to build a sustainable winner. Not sacrificing the system today makes the team better tomorrow, which should be the goal, since we're not, you know, a juggernaut currently.

[USAFChief]

 

I'm sure they care, I'm saying they shouldn't. Build a winner, and it will all work out. I would hate to think that our supposedly advanced and analytical front office is making moves to avoid negative media attention, rather than working to build a sustainable winner. Not sacrificing the system today makes the team better tomorrow, which should be the goal, since we're not, you know, a juggernaut currently.

*not sacrificing the system today MIGHT make the team better tomorrow

[Cap'n Piranha]

*not sacrificing the system today MIGHT make the team better tomorrow

True. However, making a trade MIGHT not improve the team today OR tomorrow.

[Dantes929]

 

it's not a matter of "being fleeced" to me, it's a matter of timing and context of other players/options.

 

There is a pretty long article on Gray on Fangraphs, and his underlying stuff. Those proposing the Twins give up a 10 year starter at SS/2B and a AA starting pitcher that might help them, and 1-2 other token pieces might want to read that.

 

Look, I'm part of the "when does the future ever show up" crowd. But I'm also part of the "let's be somewhat realistic" crowd. In context of the rest of the team, and the fact that I think Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe can provide 1 good pitcher and 1 number 5 and 1 RP.....I am not ready to trade Gordon (and one of those guys, and 1-2 more guys) for a guy that has been hurt and isn't looking great in those things that predict if he'll be good next year also.

 

this team needs a DH, their C to hit, their SS to hit, their CF to hit. It needs it 1B to hit. That's on the "good side" of the team!

 

It needs a #3 or better starter, and 2 RPs. next year, when Santana is a year older, they'll need another starter. They'll probably need another RP or two.

 

I'm not convinced now is the time. had they even tried to fix the bullpen, or add a legit starter coming into the year, I'd be more convinced that the FO thinks it's time.

I get all that.  I read the fangraphs article and it didn't look all that bad to me.    I know there are no guarantees but he is healthy now (5 quality starts in a row) and if you think he can give you 3 years of quality that slots in with one of your needs listed above then its something you should consider.   In the last 7 years we have had one pitcher that has given us a 3 years stretch of quality and that's only if you consider Santana to be that guy.     Berrios, Meija and Gray would not block any of those other guys from achieving their potential and if more than two of those guys come up big Gray still makes a tradeable asset.     I'm just saying a trade like this isn't necessarily a buy, sell or stand pat move.    It has elements in between.     Of course Gray can get hurt and Gordon can become a good SS for years to come but Gordon can get hurt and Gray can have three great years also.    I just don't view him as a rental.   If I did, I would not consider the move. 

[whydidnt]

Seattle just traded 4 prospects, including their #6 (per mlb.com) for David Phelps. Phelps is a 7th-8th inning guy the Twins could use, but that price seems pretty high. This year's trade market has been all over the place. The Yankees got Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle for 1 legit top prospect and two mid level guys. If the price for Phelps sets the market, the Twins need to sit this one out. If the White Sox take is more realistic, I'm in. One more reason I don't understand the decision not to bring in legit relief arms this off-season.

[USAFChief]

 

True. However, making a trade MIGHT not improve the team today OR tomorrow.

True.

 

However, the Twins ARE in contention today.  They might not be tomorrow.

[Cap'n Piranha]

True.

 

However, the Twins ARE in contention today. They might not be tomorrow.

I think you and I might have different definitions of contention. I'm inclined to believe the Twins aren't truly in contention for anything more than a division round loss at best, even with a trade upgrade. I don't want to dilute our system so we can lose to Houston in 4 games instead of 3.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I get all that.  I read the fangraphs article and it didn't look all that bad to me.    I know there are no guarantees but he is healthy now (5 quality starts in a row) and if you think he can give you 3 years of quality that slots in with one of your needs listed above then its something you should consider.   In the last 7 years we have had one pitcher that has given us a 3 years stretch of quality and that's only if you consider Santana to be that guy.     Berrios, Meija and Gray would not block any of those other guys from achieving their potential and if more than two of those guys come up big Gray still makes a tradeable asset.     I'm just saying a trade like this isn't necessarily a buy, sell or stand pat move.    It has elements in between.     Of course Gray can get hurt and Gordon can become a good SS for years to come but Gordon can get hurt and Gray can have three great years also.    I just don't view him as a rental.   If I did, I would not consider the move. 

 

I think that's totally fair. Of course, you are also giving up Gordon and one of the good AA pitchers and 1-2 more players, not just Gordon.

 

I don't know what to think of Gray, frankly. If the FO thinks he's going to be a 2/3 for three years, I probably do what it takes to get him. Probably. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

 

Not sure that this is what it will take.  I think that they need 2 relievers better than Kintzler, 1 starter better than Berrios, and one OF/DH bat with pop to have a chance.  

 

They have to go past the Astros.  They are 1-5 against them this season.   Same with Boston, they are 2-5 against them this season.   A seventh inning guy and a 4th starter will not cut the mustard...

It is not about making the post-season, it is about winning in the post-season.  And if you are not going to win, you might as well get something for people who will not be around next season and/or are guaranteed to decline, and hope that this something will be better now and in the long run...

Edited July 20, 2017 by Thrylos

[Craig Arko]

The real tragedy here is that they haven't (yet) made an offer to Pablo Sandoval. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The real tragedy here is that they haven't (yet) made an offer to Pablo Sandoval. 

 

too late, I think he's back with his old team.

[Han Joelo]

My friend, who at age 44 has the same brain tumor as John McCain, is an Indians fan. I doubt if he knows who Clint Frazier is, and if he did, would care that he's gone. He enjoyed seeing the Indians in the World Series. Right now he could probably care less about baseball. Then again, I hope to be watching meaningful baseball with him in October.

 

Fortune favors the bold. As long as you also remember that that boldness is the elixir of the wise, and the alcohol of the fool.

[Willihammer]

 

Seattle just traded 4 prospects, including their #6 (per mlb.com) for David Phelps. Phelps is a 7th-8th inning guy the Twins could use, but that price seems pretty high. This year's trade market has been all over the place. The Yankees got Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle for 1 legit top prospect and two mid level guys. If the price for Phelps sets the market, the Twins need to sit this one out. If the White Sox take is more realistic, I'm in. One more reason I don't understand the decision not to bring in legit relief arms this off-season.

Hernandez is Seattle's #6, but nationally he's unranked. He's a 19 year old  outfielder with a career OPS of .702 in the minor leagues. Pretty cheap price if you ask me, like every other trade so far.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Willihammer

[Seth Stohs]

 

what does "buy" mean to you, Seth?

 

Gordon and another top piece for Gray?

Marginal prospect for a RP?

something between?

 

Buy is trading prospects/young players for veteran players... 

Sell is trading off your veterans for young players/prospects...

 

 

I keep it pretty basic. Ha!

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seattle just traded 4 prospects, including their #6 (per mlb.com) for David Phelps. Phelps is a 7th-8th inning guy the Twins could use, but that price seems pretty high. This year's trade market has been all over the place. The Yankees got Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle for 1 legit top prospect and two mid level guys. If the price for Phelps sets the market, the Twins need to sit this one out. If the White Sox take is more realistic, I'm in. One more reason I don't understand the decision not to bring in legit relief arms this off-season.

 

Meh, none of those guys even crack the top 10-15 for MN......not sure I'd trade 4 guys in that range for 1 guy, though. Not sure I wouldn't either.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Not sure that this is what it will take.  I think that they need 2 relievers better than Kintzler, 1 starter better than Berrios, and one OF/DH bat with pop to have a chance.  

 

They have to go past the Astros.  They are 1-5 against them this season.   Same with Boston, they are 2-5 against them this season.   A seventh inning guy and a 4th starter will not cut the mustard...

It is not about making the post-season, it is about winning in the post-season.  And if you are not going to win, you might as well get something for people who will not be around next season and/or are guaranteed to decline, and hope that this something will be better now and in the long run...

I'm saying they need those things to even have a shot at the division. If they stand pat, I don't see much of a chance they beat Cleveland (or maybe even KC for that matter). But once you're in, anything can happen. I wouldn't bet on the Twins beating a Boston or a Houston, either, but it's just a five- or seven-game series.

 

I'd just like to see the front office give this team a fighting chance to get in. From there, anything's possible. Baseball has no obligation to make sense.

[Steve Lein]

 

This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

 

This is not "buying" to me. But I agree it's a path I'd like to seem them take unless they're landing Archer.

[Jham]

I think you and I might have different definitions of contention. I'm inclined to believe the Twins aren't truly in contention for anything more than a division round loss at best, even with a trade upgrade. I don't want to dilute our system so we can lose to Houston in 4 games instead of 3.

You act like this team can't improve between now and October, but base your argument for selling on the fact that this young team can only get better...

 

This team can improve. Mejia is a rookie, Berrios 2nd year, Gibson showing signs of life. Santiago capable of getting hot. We have a few arms in waiting. Dozier hasn't gotten hot yet.

 

How many more years do you expect Sano to be passable at 3rd? How many years is Buxton elite in center? Think we'll luck into another all star closer?

 

I'm also pretty sure the stros can't keep up their level of play.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Jham

[USAFChief]

 

You act like this team can't improve between now and October, but base your argument for selling on the fact that this young team can only get better...

This team can improve. Mejia is a rookie, Berrios 2nd year, Gibson showing signs of life. Santiago capable of getting hot. We have a few arms in waiting. Dozier hasn't gotten hot yet.

How many more years do you expect Sano to be passable at 3rd? How many years is Buxton elite in center? Think we'll luck into another all star closer?

I'm also pretty sure the stros can't keep up their level of play.

Not to mention, in baseball there isn't a prohibitive favorite when a .500-ish team plays a .600-ish team in a 5 or 7 game series.

 

For one thing, it's baseball, and for another, the bottom of each team's roster isn't likely to play a decisive role.  

[Thrylos]

 

 

But once you're in, anything can happen.

 

 

 

I think that this is wrong.  Once you are in, you will go as far as you can.  It is not a roll of the dice.  Where that, probability says that the Twins would had been in 2 World Series in the 00's, winning one.

Did not happen, because they were not build to win in the post season.

[MN_ExPat]

How about...

 

I like turtles!

[Mike Sixel]

FYI:

 

Anthony
1:59 What makes Dan Straily sort of good? Can he keep doing this?

 

Eno Sarris
2:00 1) Has the biggest or second biggest difference between the fastball and changeup vertically, meaning he's combining a rising fastball (popups) with a great change (whiffs and grounders).
2) Throws anything in any count.
3) Has decent command and three legit pitches.
I think he can be league average, slightly better, for a while, yes.

[KidBro]

 

FYI:

 

Anthony
1:59 What makes Dan Straily sort of good? Can he keep doing this?

 

Eno Sarris
2:00 1) Has the biggest or second biggest difference between the fastball and changeup vertically, meaning he's combining a rising fastball (popups) with a great change (whiffs and grounders).
2) Throws anything in any count.
3) Has decent command and three legit pitches.
I think he can be league average, slightly better, for a while, yes.

 

Interesting input.  Originally I am on record of saying why waste the resources on him, or Quintana or Gray. Do I think he/they would absolutely help the push now, 100%.  but here is my ultimate fear in acquiring Straily (or a like #3) for multiple years.  We are back in 2013-2014ish again, a bunch of not much upside pitchers blocking guys that project to be a mix of #2-4's that ultimately congest our 40 man.  Time to acquire a true ace or top 20ish pitcher, whether that means via trade that involves Gordon+ or spending on a FA.  Then fill in w/ the Gonslaves, Thorpes, etc (whoever we haven't traded w/ Gordon to get our #1 ) .  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting input.  Originally I am on record of saying why waste the resources on him, or Quintana or Gray. Do I think he/they would absolutely help the push now, 100%.  but here is my ultimate fear in acquiring Straily (or a like #3) for multiple years.  We are back in 2013-2014ish again, a bunch of not much upside pitchers blocking guys that project to be a mix of #2-4's that ultimately congest our 40 man.  Time to acquire a true ace or top 20ish pitcher, whether that means via trade that involves Gordon+ or spending on a FA.  Then fill in w/ the Gonslaves, Thorpes, etc (whoever we haven't traded w/ Gordon to get our #1 ) .  

 

Hmmm. What top 20 pitcher is available, and has more than 1.5 years on his contract? I like the idea, not sure it is as realistic as getting a 2/3 type, and promoting 1-2 of the AA guys.

[Blake]

 

When you're living in the world of SSS during the postseason, who's to say an unexpected player couldn't step up to be a solid bullpen piece or a good starter? Last season Brandon Guyer, a waiver wire pickup, made clutch hits and was one of Cleveland's best hitters during the postseason. This season he can't hit the broad side of a barn. Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs was the best pitcher in the postseason.... This year he's mediocre. 

Anybody and everybody has the potential to look good in a ~40-50 AB sample size. Or a 15-20 inning sample size for pitchers. 

To your point: in 2013 Nick Punto batted .333 in the post season for the Dodgers.

 

Jeff Weaver pitched extremely well for the Cardinals during their post season run to a World Series win in 2006.

 

Both are answers to trivia questions when it comes to MLB.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think you and I might have different definitions of contention. I'm inclined to believe the Twins aren't truly in contention for anything more than a division round loss at best, even with a trade upgrade. I don't want to dilute our system so we can lose to Houston in 4 games instead of 3.

Sure it will be a disappointment if they were to lose in a divisional playoff round, but it will be a hell of a lot of fun to get to that point and something to build on for next year. Also, three other good teams will lose in that divisional round.

[gocgo]

Let's not discount the importance of getting playoff experience to a bunch of young guys.  First round exit?  Probably, but we are just young and dumb enough to ignore the experts and make some noise in the playoffs.

 

Trade away Kintzler?  He has proven to be reliable.  Think of how frustrating it would be to have a talented group of young players and an unreliable closer.

 

I see a lot of people down on Pressly.  I get it...but I also remember a guy who was pretty solid last year.  His velocity is still good and his breaking ball can be nasty when he throws it for strikes.  This year, that has been an issue and guys are waiting on the fastball.  Get his breaking ball consistently into the strike zone and he'll be solid again.

[KidBro]

 

Hmmm. What top 20 pitcher is available, and has more than 1.5 years on his contract? I like the idea, not sure it is as realistic as getting a 2/3 type, and promoting 1-2 of the AA guys.

 

That honestly was mainly hypothetical, in how to acquire one in the next 12 months.  But I'd put Archer, G Cole certainly as possible  hopeful candidates.  Maybe James Paxton? Trade Ervin or Dozier for one currently in the minors (ETA 2018) that projects as a top of the rotation pitcher.  I guess my point was more, I don't care how they get a top of the rotation pitcher, just get one.     

Edited July 20, 2017 by KidBro