Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided

[spinowner]

 

The goal should be to build a team that has a sustained window of opportunity.

Exactly this.

[Cap'n Piranha]

When you're living in the world of SSS during the postseason, who's to say an unexpected player couldn't step up to be a solid bullpen piece or a good starter? Last season Brandon Guyer, a waiver wire pickup, made clutch hits and was one of Cleveland's best hitters during the postseason. This season he can't hit the broad side of a barn. Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs was the best pitcher in the postseason.... This year he's mediocre.

 

Anybody and everybody has the potential to look good in a ~40-50 AB sample size. Or a 15-20 inning sample size for pitchers.

Who's to say your best players don't perform terribly? What if bad Berrios shows up, and he exits in the third after giving up 7 runs? What if Sano puts up a 1 for 11 with 7 k's? We shouldn't base odds for postseason success on what-ifs and could-bes.

[Vanimal46]

 

That could be the case for our players, but it's equally likely for other teams' players. And the postseason is a larger sample size than it used to be. A team has to win 11 or 12 games against 3 or 4 opponents to be World Champions. Outlier performances are less likely to make a difference compared with, say, 1987. Hoping for flukes is not the way to approach the postseason. Build your organization well and you are much more likely to succeed. 

 

That doesn't really change year over year in baseball. You could build a super team like the 116 win Seattle Mariners and still find a way to lose. Or you can be an 83 win team like the St. Louis Cardinals, find a hot streak and win it all. 

I also wouldn't say hoping for flukes. Flukes happen in SSS no matter if we plan for it or not. The MVP could go on a 1-30 cold streak. Or a player with a .150 BA in the regular season could go on a 10-20 tear. That's just the name of the game in playoff baseball. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Who's to say your best players don't perform terribly? What if bad Berrios shows up, and he exits in the third after giving up 7 runs? What if Sano puts up a 1 for 11 with 7 k's? We shouldn't base odds for postseason success on what-ifs and could-bes.

 

That could absolutely happen. The Twins could also try building this sustained window of success and 1 out of 10 prospects turn out to be something resulting in 10 years without making the playoffs. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

That could absolutely happen. The Twins could also try building this sustained window of success and 1 out of 10 prospects turn out to be something resulting in 10 years without making the playoffs. 

 

so, what do you want?

 

trading legit multiple prospects for Gray?

trading mediocre prospects for ok RPs/rentals?

[Vanimal46]

 

so, what do you want?

 

trading legit multiple prospects for Gray?

trading mediocre prospects for ok RPs/rentals?

 

Either/or works for me. Preferably the first option because this team needs legit pitching for multiple years, and they have a blue chip asset (Gordon) to at least start those conversations. 

Edited July 20, 2017 by Vanimal46

[PDX Twin]

 

Either/or works for me. Preferably the first option because this team needs legit pitching for multiple years, and they have a blue chip asset (Gordon) to at least start those conversations. 

 

Gordon seems to be the most obvious asset to trade. He is the closest to the majors of quite a few promising middle infielders. It seems fair to assume that (at least) one of Palacios, Javier, Marte, and Lewis will be as good as Gordon eventually, so all we are doing by trading him is delaying the arrival of a good infielder by a couple of years. 

 

Looked at that way, the question becomes whether Dozier, Polanco, Adrianza, and Vielma can bridge that couple of years. I'd say yes, so I'd be willing to part with Gordon for the right return.

[Vanimal46]

 

Gordon seems to be the most obvious asset to trade. He is the closest to the majors of quite a few promising middle infielders. It seems fair to assume that (at least) one of Palacios, Javier, Marte, and Lewis will be as good as Gordon eventually, so all we are doing by trading him is delaying the arrival of a good infielder by a couple of years. 

 

Looked at that way, the question becomes whether Dozier, Polanco, Adrianza, and Vielma can bridge that couple of years. I'd say yes, so I'd be willing to part with Gordon for the right return.

 

Agreed. Worst case, if they don't feel Polanco, Adrianza, Vielma, etc. can bridge the gap, they could sign someone like Zack Cozart or old friend Eduardo Nunez this off-season to a short-term contract. 

[rghrbek]

 

Who cares if they get blasted by the media? 5-6 years ago the media blasted the Astros for openly trying to lose games. Now they're one of the two best teams in the league, and the envy of 25ish organizations. The goal should be to build a team that has a sustained window of opportunity, not dump chips at queen jack suited, simply because you've been getting a lot of deuce seven.

And I would also add that the national media won't blast the Twins FO.  They see us as pretenders and almost always mention the large negative run differential...They probably are a little more objective than we are, of course.

[spinowner]

 

so, what do you want?

 

trading legit multiple prospects for Gray?

trading mediocre prospects for ok RPs/rentals?

Neither. I want to scout well, draft well, and sign the right free agents at the right times so we don't have to worry about trading away a player we would rather keep.

[Steve Lein]

I was in the "Stand Pat" group.

 

I don't think this is the year you #GoForIt through what I would consider truly "buying."

 

That means you're trading a package that includes at least 2 of Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and then some other good prospects too.

 

Those are the type of moves you make when you're leading your division and have one of the best records in baseball (e.g.: you're truly a "contender").

 

The reality is the Twins have the 12th best record in baseball right now. 12th. Theoretically they shouldn't even be a playoff team. (they could fall to as far as 17th with a run of losses pretty quickly)

 

Despite that they are in the mix for a playoff spot, which is awesome, but the reality to me is their window isn't open yet, so it's not the time to truly "buy."

 

Get the rest of the young guys feet wet this year so you have a better idea if your window will open next year.

 

(I'm all for getting some bullpen help, but at minimal cost. Brad Hand would be nice, but not for that price. Love me some Brad Brach, but no idea his cost?)

[kab21]

 

Who cares if they get blasted by the media? 5-6 years ago the media blasted the Astros for openly trying to lose games. Now they're one of the two best teams in the league, and the envy of 25ish organizations. The goal should be to build a team that has a sustained window of opportunity, not dump chips at queen jack suited, simply because you've been getting a lot of deuce seven.

Did I only say that they would only get blasted by the media? They would lose the players themselves if they sold right now. This is the most important factor imo. How can you expect the players to perform when the FO guts a team 1/2 game out? And yes, trading Santana (1 of the 2 good starters - Mejia is making an argument for a 3rd) is gutting the team when they are pitching Gibson and Colon.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Neither. I want to scout well, draft well, and sign the right free agents at the right times so we don't have to worry about trading away a player we would rather keep.

 

Trades are part of how you acquire talent. Every winning team uses that path.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

At this point, I think any good White Sox player is probably thinking "trade me next, please."

 

Who do they still have?

[Dantes929]

 

what does "buy" mean to you, Seth?

 

Gordon and another top piece for Gray?

Marginal prospect for a RP?

something between?

You need to name that other top piece.   I was for standing pat but Gray would be a three year asset rather than a rental.    With Santana, Berrios, Meija throwing well and Gibson pitching like a pretty good #5, Gray would look really good in this rotation this year and through 2019 or could be traded for a guy like Gordon and another top piece.    I think we have a mindset here that we will be fleeced in any trade but a trade can be good for both sides.

[Tom Froemming]

It seems like a lot of people are interpreting "buy" as in all-out go for it mode. I don't think the team needs to shoot for the moon and sell off the farm.

 

If they could just get a seventh inning guy better than Duffey (who has a 7.59 ERA over the last four weeks) and a fourth starter better than then guys they've been rolling out there (Twins starters not named Santana, Berrios or Mejia have a 6.68 ERA this season), that would dramatically improve this team. Does it make them favorites? Good golly no, but it gives them a great shot to catch Cleveland.

 

One thing about the postseason is it shortens your roster. More off days means you can rely on fewer starting pitchers and fewer guys in your bullpen. You could go with a three-man rotation. Kintzler and Rogers could be available nearly every night.

 

Last year, Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin in their rotation. Ryan Merrit made a start for them, for cripes sakes! They were able to use Allen and Miller in 10 of their 15 postseason games.

 

This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

Speaking of Hudson, remember how angry Johan got when they "sold" him off?  Am I remembering right?

It was 2007 and the player we traded away was Luis Castillo.

Casilla took his place. He was a good player for us overall, but at 22 years old in 2007 he posted an OPS almost .200 less than the OPS Castillo was putting up.

 

And yes, Johan was unusually vocal about it. Quite upset.

(paraphrasing) "We are always playing for the future. When does the future ever show up?"

[Mike Sixel]

 

You need to name that other top piece.   I was for standing pat but Gray would be a three year asset rather than a rental.    With Santana, Berrios, Meija throwing well and Gibson pitching like a pretty good #5, Gray would look really good in this rotation this year and through 2019 or could be traded for a guy like Gordon and another top piece.    I think we have a mindset here that we will be fleeced in any trade but a trade can be good for both sides.

 

it's not a matter of "being fleeced" to me, it's a matter of timing and context of other players/options.

 

There is a pretty long article on Gray on Fangraphs, and his underlying stuff. Those proposing the Twins give up a 10 year starter at SS/2B and a AA starting pitcher that might help them, and 1-2 other token pieces might want to read that.

 

Look, I'm part of the "when does the future ever show up" crowd. But I'm also part of the "let's be somewhat realistic" crowd. In context of the rest of the team, and the fact that I think Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe can provide 1 good pitcher and 1 number 5 and 1 RP.....I am not ready to trade Gordon (and one of those guys, and 1-2 more guys) for a guy that has been hurt and isn't looking great in those things that predict if he'll be good next year also.

 

this team needs a DH, their C to hit, their SS to hit, their CF to hit. It needs it 1B to hit. That's on the "good side" of the team!

 

It needs a #3 or better starter, and 2 RPs. next year, when Santana is a year older, they'll need another starter. They'll probably need another RP or two.

 

I'm not convinced now is the time. had they even tried to fix the bullpen, or add a legit starter coming into the year, I'd be more convinced that the FO thinks it's time.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[beckmt]

I was in the "Stand Pat" group.

 

I don't think this is the year you #GoForIt through what I would consider truly "buying."

 

That means you're trading a package that includes at least 2 of Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and then some other good prospects too.

 

Those are the type of moves you make when you're leading your division and have one of the best records in baseball (e.g.: you're truly a "contender").

 

The reality is the Twins have the 12th best record in baseball right now. 12th. Theoretically they shouldn't even be a playoff team. (they could fall to as far as 17th with a run of losses pretty quickly)

 

Despite that they are in the mix for a playoff spot, which is awesome, but the reality to me is their window isn't open yet, so it's not the time to truly "buy."

 

Get the rest of the young guys feet wet this year so you have a better idea if your window will open next year.

 

(I'm all for getting some bullpen help, but at minimal cost. Brad Hand would be nice, but not for that price. Love me some Brad Brach, but no idea his cost?)

I would expect his price would be higher than Hand, Britton might well cost less.

[SF Twins Fan]

First and foremost I'd like to see some promotions.

Twins:

I'd like to see Breslow and potentially Belisle be DFA'd or waived whichever it is. In their place I would promote one of Busenitz or Curtiss and then also bring up Garver, Park or Varges.

 

Minors:

I'd like to see Gonsalves and potentially Romero and Jorge moved up to AAA and I'd like to see Thorpe moved up to AA.

 

As for trades I wouldn't blow the farm on a move unless it's for Archer, which I don't see happening. I would however like to see someone added to the bullpen and potentially a back end of the rotation starter. A rotation of Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Trade and Gibson is pretty solid overall. It's not going to compete against the top few teams but should be good enough to allow them to compete the rest of the season. I also would like to see a veteran RH bench bat added as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would certainly be open to trading Gordon for a blue chip pitching asset, and a guy like Jon Gray, while not exactly risk free, would definitely be someone I'd be willing to converse about. That isn't going all in, and probably not what I'd call "buy".  That's more or less the type of trade you normally do in the offseason where roster's get rebalanced.

 

Now that said, I'm probably more in the sell category personally. I don't see this team having the talent to make it. I'm not sure I sell on Santana unless they are able to bring in a guy like Gray as well as making an FA splash this offseason, but I'm definitely dangling Kintzler and Dozier and any other marginal vet that has a ready replacement.

[gheggs42]

I would go after Straily and Ramos from Miami. Straily is controllable through 2020 I believe and having a good year and Ramos through next year? Not sure on that. This fills two holes and neither are rentals. I would package either Gordon or Polanco with Jorge, Granite, and maybe Stewart/Jay. Does that get it done? More? Less?

[Squirrel]

 

It seems like a lot of people are interpreting "buy" as in all-out go for it mode. I don't think the team needs to shoot for the moon and sell off the farm.

 

If they could just get a seventh inning guy better than Duffey (who has a 7.59 ERA over the last four weeks) and a fourth starter better than then guys they've been rolling out there (Twins starters not named Santana, Berrios or Mejia have a 6.68 ERA this season), that would dramatically improve this team. Does it make them favorites? Good golly no, but it gives them a great shot to catch Cleveland.

 

One thing about the postseason is it shortens your roster. More off days means you can rely on fewer starting pitchers and fewer guys in your bullpen. You could go with a three-man rotation. Kintzler and Rogers could be available nearly every night.

 

Last year, Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin in their rotation. Ryan Merrit made a start for them, for cripes sakes! They were able to use Allen and Miller in 10 of their 15 postseason games.

 

This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

This is what I want to do ... exactly this. Although I don't know how realistic it is to get that little and not have it hurt a lot into the future, but we need to somehow make a play without being 'all in.' We aren't in 'all in' mode, but we are in 'give it a shot' mode.

[USAFChief]

There is no guarantee that waiting will result in a better opportunity.

 

Go out, today, and get some help.

 

The Yankees just got two fabulous bullpen pieces for a very reasonable price.  It can be done.

 

If the Twins current minor league system can't withstand trading off a similar haul, there is no "window" to wait for anyway.

[Willihammer]

I can see both sides, and a week ago I would have voted sell but seeing what prices are for pitching I think there are (or were) good deals out there. I would be all in favor of a trade like the Yankees or Nats just pulled off.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I would go after Straily and Ramos from Miami. Straily is controllable through 2020 I believe and having a good year and Ramos through next year? Not sure on that. This fills two holes and neither are rentals. I would package either Gordon or Polanco with Jorge, Granite, and maybe Stewart/Jay. Does that get it done? More? Less?

 

 

There is no way I include Gordon in any deal like that. Straily is a one hit wonder who has been bad before this season. I'd maybe include a top 10 prospect for him but even that might be high.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Did I only say that they would only get blasted by the media? They would lose the players themselves if they sold right now. This is the most important factor imo. How can you expect the players to perform when the FO guts a team 1/2 game out? And yes, trading Santana (1 of the 2 good starters - Mejia is making an argument for a 3rd) is gutting the team when they are pitching Gibson and Colon.

 

 

You didn't only say that, that's just the part I responded to. You said they would get blasted by the media, I said who cares?

 

As for upsetting the players, while I care about that, I would hope our players would be savvy enough to understand that, according to fangraphs, we have a 17.3% chance to make the playoffs this year, but by buttressing our farm system, we can raise those odds in future years. I'm sure Altuve hated playing on 90 loss teams for 3-4 years, but I'm also sure that being on a team that currently has 99.9% odds to win its division, and will be around 90% odds to make the playoffs every year for the next 5-7 years makes up for that.

[bird]

I believe the market will increasingly favor buyers as we move along here. We have surpluses in the farm system. The system is just fine. Be a buyer, Derek.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would go after Straily and Ramos from Miami. Straily is controllable through 2020 I believe and having a good year and Ramos through next year? Not sure on that. This fills two holes and neither are rentals. I would package either Gordon or Polanco with Jorge, Granite, and maybe Stewart/Jay. Does that get it done? More? Less?

 

Jay has no value. None. Stewart might have a tiny bit of value, but who knows. Jorge is probably a RP going forward. So, a maybe SS and a RP and a 4th OF and a flyer for two legit players that are cost controlled for several years? I can't see Miami doing that. I love Gordon, and even I would most likely do that deal (not having closely examined Straily or Ramos lately) if I thought Straily was a legit pitcher.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[USAFChief]

 

You didn't only say that, that's just the part I responded to. You said they would get blasted by the media, I said who cares?

As for upsetting the players, while I care about that, I would hope our players would be savvy enough to understand that, according to fangraphs, we have a 17.3% chance to make the playoffs this year, but by buttressing our farm system, we can raise those odds in future years. I'm sure Altuve hated playing on 90 loss teams for 3-4 years, but I'm also sure that being on a team that currently has 99.9% odds to win its division, and will be around 90% odds to make the playoffs every year for the next 5-7 years makes up for that.

I can pretty much guarantee that any business, particularly one in the entertainment business, cares about getting blasted in the media.

 

They earn their money by selling their product.  Perception of that product is pretty important.  They've gone from selling out the season in TFs first season to less than 2/3 full.  

 

They care, and what's more, the media would be correct in blasting them, and I think more people than not would agree with that sentiment.

 

As for players, I'm going to guess that things like this matter when FAs decide between competitive offers, too.