Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I am in the boat of being both buyers and sellers depending on where Twins are in the next two weeks and how players perform.  Unless Twins fold in the next two weeks trading Santana as much as this board likes the idea is off the board.  Polanco is at an all time low in value, but him and a mid level prospect could fetch something.  Dozier will not bring back a major piece, but Polanco could be of interest with a prospect for a starting pitching from TB.  They seem to have more depth there than most teams.  If the Twins fall apart Santana could be dealt to the Yankees as they have a deep farm system(as does Boston) that could pick up a major prospect or two.  

More likely Twins add a bullpen piece or two and call it good. 

 

This. Santana is fine to hold into next year. He's not going to be an ace but this isn't 2006, there aren't a lot of teams you can fleece on a guy being great for a short period. I don't think people are going to value Santana like Sonny Gray. If someone does, I guess you may have to make the trade but I think that's unlikely to happen.

 

I'd be fine to trade Kintzler if you get an amazing offer but again, he's not a crazy shutdown closer so you're not going to get an Andrew Miller or Chapman offer. He's a guy a contender would slot into the 7th inning maybe. More valuable to a contending Twins team at that rate.

 

I like adding maybe one bullpen piece at the deadline and maybe another at the august deadline if need be. Otherwise, let the kids run with this.

[Vanimal46]

As much as I would like to see them be buyers in July, I'm not expecting much. In the off-season, I'd like to see them buy multiple pitchers via trade and FA. They have MI depth that could be expendable. Considering Gordon has now risen to a top 20 prospect in the game, they now have a blue chip trade piece to acquire a very talented player. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

The Twins should look to be sellers, but not sell for the sake of selling. If this was a team like KC, with 6 of our top players hitting free agency, and a championship pedigree, I'd say go for it. If we were the Tigers from a couple years ago, with our core approaching the mid-30's, I'd say go for it.

 

This is a young, and hopefully improving team. If we don't think our young core, combined with an above average farm system, and a balance sheet about to get much cleaner is capable of competing consistently for the next 3-5 years, than we should pull a Houston circa 2011, and blow it all up.

[ThejacKmp]

Also, the first couple weeks of the second half are going to tell the Twins a lot. Three at the Astros, three vs the Yankees, a brief respite against the Tiggers and then out west for three against the Dodgers. That's three of the best teams in baseball in your first four series. If they come out of that .500, they're going to be in the Wild Card chase. But it's not crazy to think they'd go 3-9 and make this all a bit more academic.

[lukeduke1980]

I'm curious to see what Kansas City does with their impending free agents - buy because this is their last shot in a while or sell to regroup faster.  I think the Twins should counter whatever they do with the opposite.

 

Of course the Astros Yankees and Dodgers series might make it all moot with Gibby and Duffey and crew.

[beckmt]

 

As much as I would like to see them be buyers in July, I'm not expecting much. In the off-season, I'd like to see them buy multiple pitchers via trade and FA. They have MI depth that could be expendable. Considering Gordon has now risen to a top 20 prospect in the game, they now have a blue chip trade piece to acquire a very talented player. 

I am more for trading Polanco or Escobar and bringing Gordon up.  He has more upside than any of the other two.

[DocBauer]

Unless the team suddenly sinks, I don't see being sellers. Even then, would trading Santana, and what we might get back, truly build a better 2018 than having him?

 

A recent article/interview clearly stated the team wasn't really looking to make trades unless they were for guys who would be part of the team for a few years. I think this team pretty much stays pat and continues to develop and audition from within, and continues to evaluate all personnel, coaches/managers and players alike at all levels before make decisions in the off season.

[nytwinsfan]

1. The idea that the Twins should shop Buxton is absolutely nuts. Even if you thought Buxton was not the CF of the future, (because you think a guy who hit well at AAA and hasn't gotten a hit yet in the majors is his replacement?) you still wouldn't trade him now. His value is almost certainly going to go up. It really can't go any lower than it is right now. He's not going to hit worse. He's just not.

 

2. I get the reluctance to trade Santana, and I wouldn't trade him unless the offer is really good and includes at least one-high upside pitcher who will be ready by mid (or preferably early) 2018.  But if the offer is good enough, you take it. Not only do you get young controllable pitching that is going to be part of the team for the next 6+ years, you also get rid of pitcher who will be 35 next year and whose value is at its apex and is due for a regression due to ageing and/or luck. You also clear $14 million in salary that you can use (along with Santiago and Perkins' $$) to sign another #2 or #3 starting pitcher next year. The price has to be right, but you gotta listen to serious offers, which might be really really good in this market.

[Vanimal46]

 

I am more for trading Polanco or Escobar and bringing Gordon up.  He has more upside than any of the other two.

 

I agree Gordon probably has more upside. I'd trade him to get a better player than what Polanco or Escobar would bring in. 

[jorgenswest]

The last administration traded athletic young outfielders before seeing them in their prime. Gomez after his 23 year old season and Hicks after his 25 year old season. They stuck with Span through age 28. Revere was 24. Need a center fielder? Don't develop them. Just wait until they struggle for a few years in Minnesota and then take them in for the prime of their careers.

 

I hope this administration is committed to seeing their young and talented players through their struggles. Buxton, Kepler and Polanco showed enough in the minors very young for their leagues. In fact, they are all younger than Granite. They need tremendous patience as they develop in the majors. We couldn't even give Hicks 1000 plate appearances. Gomez just over 1000. I would want to see closer to 2000 plate appearances with this trio.

 

The Twins need to buyers for their primes.

[terrydactyls]

We need Drew Carey (or Bob Barker for us older guys) to join the Twins front office and play "Let's Make A Deal." This current team making it far (if at all) in the playoffs is just a dream so let's get working on 2018 and beyond.

 

Trade bait: Santana and Kintzler from the pitching core. Rosario, Grossman, Dozier, Escobar, and Polanco from the hitters.

 

If Drew or Bob can make a deal with any or all of these components which brings back young, controllable, valuable assets for 2018 and beyond, then make the deal. Otherwise, wait this out and work on improvement in the off season. Please just don't give up future assets for a short-term fix hoping to win this year.

[Craig Arko]

 

We need Drew Carey (or Bob Barker for us older guys) to join the Twins front office and play "Let's Make A Deal." This current team making it far (if at all) in the playoffs is just a dream so let's get working on 2018 and beyond. Trade bait: Santana and Kintzler from the pitching core. Rosario, Grossman, Dozier, Escobar, and Polanco from the hitters. If Drew or Bob can make a deal with any or all of these components which brings back young, controllable, valuable assets for 2018 and beyond, then make the deal. Otherwise, wait this out and work on improvement in the off season. Please just don't give up future assets for a short-term fix hoping to win this year.

Monty Hall, not Bob Barker.

[jorgenswest]

Kintzler is a free agent after this year. Dozier, Escobar and possibly Santana after next year. They might be sold.

 

The remaining trade assets are under control for several years. I wouldn't trade Polanco unless the return has a similar number of years of team control.

 

I think they are sellers but the only asset they must sell is Kintzler. The only other reasonable option with him is a one year extension. He is 32. For many relievers the shift from useful to liability is abrupt. The Twins needs to be on a one year commitment when that happens to Kintzler.

[clutchhittin18]

 

WOW!  That's a bold prediction if i may say so.  Not saying right or wrong, just bold.  

 

Getting back to the buyers vs. sellers, I don't think the Twins are either at this point. Falvey has hinted they aren't going to mortgage the teams future on rentals to try and sneak into the post season. They might add a couple of minuscule bullpen pieces but nothing major IMO.  

 

That said, I still think they should explore moving Dozier and Santana, for the right price that is.  However, Dozier is certainly not helping matters and is having a DOWN season ( surprise surprise), and his trade value has shrunk considerably from last season.  While i hate to give up Santana he is probably the most valuable trade chip right now and the AStros need pitching help right now after some starting staff injuries.  Could be a good fit there and they have a deep farm system right now.  Explore that for sure. 

 

The only other thing i can think of is see what Oakland wants for Sonny Gray.  His is having a decent 2017 season so far averaging 9.1 strikeouts per K9 which would push him ahead of Berrios K/9.  A's are looking for outfielders which we have in abundance.  Two options Rosario, Granite or Buxton, Granite + Wade or pitching prospect not Romero or Gonsalves.  

 

Anyhow, two things I look forward too this offseason.  Santiago let go (thank god) along with Scaredy Cat Meow Mix Nibbler Gibson.  Both guys have mental fortitude issues and they can cut bait with them with no strings attached.  Beyond that i have no idea what happens.  Hughes is still with us till 2020 and Joe through next season.  After that plenty of cash to go after free agents.

 

In the meantime they should be auditioning Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves now, not next season.  If any of these options hit the ground running, give em a mile long leash and let em RUN!  

I'm in the bucket of wait and see as well.  I'm not about shopping all our guys, but I would certainly be looking at a couple of teams and see if they have any interest.  The Astros are a good pick to look at for Santana, but I would also throw out the Yankees.  They have been struggling of late, especially with pitching.  A guy I could see targeted is Justus Sheffield.  Former first round pick of the Indians that came over in the Miller trade.  He's not the Yankees top pitching prospect (according to MLB), and he is having a nice season in AA (7-5, 3.09 ERA).

[birddog]

The only thing we all agree upon is what a tough job our admin has. I hope they know now what we have in our system and can use our scarce strengths to overcome our pitching weakness. Any trade will be painful as we have to give up to get.

 

I hate the thought of trading Buxton even though I loved watching Granite in CF yesterday. I do believe Buxton will hit for average and power very soon and he makes our pitchers much better. I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%. I like Rosario but think he is expendable and might bring a decent pitching prospect. Please don't trade Kepler or Santana. Hope that Colon is decent enough to be traded (not holding my breath by any means) and maybe someone would want one of our catchers as Garver looks MLB ready. It's not like we have much to give up so Gonsalves and Fernando should be up sometime in the second half.

 

I love our start so far, but don't expect to remain contenders much longer. I hope Falvey and Levine can make the right decisions, but no way will they make us all happy no matter what they do.

[SwainZag]

 

There isn't much question in my mind:  Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be looking to add talent to the MLB and MiLB rosters.  And I'm reasonably sure the bait will be Buxton.

 

I keep looking at those videos of Buxton's "highlight reel" catches.  The one where he's running in, that's a great catch.  The one's going towards the wall, dumb luck.  Look closely at what Zack Granite does.  Granite tracks the ball the entire time it's in the air, even as he hits the wall.  No slamming into the wall, like Buxton.

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.  Let someone else work that development.  And, no, I'm not worried about Buxton developing into a legit All Star.  Twins need better prospects for the future as a team.

 

I am all for Granite getting a shot at the major leagues, but are you serious?  Not only does Granite not have near the tools that Buxton has, he's a year older!  Buxton currently leads the majors in defensive WAR, and you are going to chalk it up to dumb luck?  Granite made a really nice catch yesterday, but this just blows my mind.  

[Doomtints]

 

I am all for Granite getting a shot at the major leagues, but are you serious?  Not only does Granite not have near the tools that Buxton has, he's a year older!  Buxton currently leads the majors in defensive WAR, and you are going to chalk it up to dumb luck?  Granite made a really nice catch yesterday, but this just blows my mind.  

 

I agree. Would yesterday's loss had been as bad if Buxton had been out there? Could the Twins have won?

I'm perplexed as to why Molitor would have anyone other than Buxton out there behind the Twins #3-#5 starters! This isn't the first time.

[dbminn]

I wouldn't trade prospects at the deadline for a short-term pitcher even if the Twins stay in the race. The premium will be too high. I'd continue to keep an eye out for veteran SP/RP that might be salvaged.

 

There are a few players that could be traded if the Twins fall back. Utility players are usually in demand so Escobar could bring back extra mid-season value. Same with professional hitters. I could see Grossman traded at a premium as well. Grossman and Escobar are under 30 years old and relatively cheap. They could help the Twins if they make a serious run next year. I'd only trade them if we get near-ready pitching in return.

 

Gimenez might have value if a contender loses a C to injury. He's kind of a favorite of mine but Garver is ready to step up.

 

Santana and Kintzler are in demand but the Twins are already short on pitching. I think the Twins can contend next year so I'd only trade them this mid-season at a very high premium. Sign Kintzler for two years, if necessary. 

 

Bigger trades can be made in the offseason. The Twins may have to trade a young OF, Gordon and/or some of the very young prospects to get a controllable SP. Or maybe they could open the Pohlad pocketbook and sign FA Tyler Chatwood (28 years old).  

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%.

...

I temper my optimism perhaps too much, but at this point in time there are only 3 players in the American League with an OBP >= 40%.

I hope good things for Granite.

Expectations set too high insist on a perceived result of 'BUST'.

[Willihammer]

 

There isn't much question in my mind:  Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be looking to add talent to the MLB and MiLB rosters.  And I'm reasonably sure the bait will be Buxton.

 

I keep looking at those videos of Buxton's "highlight reel" catches.  The one where he's running in, that's a great catch.  The one's going towards the wall, dumb luck.  Look closely at what Zack Granite does.  Granite tracks the ball the entire time it's in the air, even as he hits the wall.  No slamming into the wall, like Buxton.

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.  Let someone else work that development.  And, no, I'm not worried about Buxton developing into a legit All Star.  Twins need better prospects for the future as a team.

I think this is a definite possibility. Looking ahead to the FA class, there are a good number of RH hitting outfielders - Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez, Bautista, Eric Young Jr, Colby Rasmus, etc. who could be reasonably cheap upgrades. If Buxton + prospect package could bring back a controlled starter, I think you pull the trigger on that for sure, assuming Granite doesn't totally fall on his face defensively.

[spinowner]

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.

Strongly disagree. I think it's more likely that the Zack Granite call-up was: a.) a reward for having a good minor league season, b.) a chance to give Buxton an extra day off heading into the break and c.) a prelude to trading Granite, Grossman or Rosario. 

[Tomj14]

 

The only thing we all agree upon is what a tough job our admin has. I hope they know now what we have in our system and can use our scarce strengths to overcome our pitching weakness. Any trade will be painful as we have to give up to get.

 

I hate the thought of trading Buxton even though I loved watching Granite in CF yesterday. I do believe Buxton will hit for average and power very soon and he makes our pitchers much better. I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%. I like Rosario but think he is expendable and might bring a decent pitching prospect. Please don't trade Kepler or Santana. Hope that Colon is decent enough to be traded (not holding my breath by any means) and maybe someone would want one of our catchers as Garver looks MLB ready. It's not like we have much to give up so Gonsalves and Fernando should be up sometime in the second half.

 

I love our start so far, but don't expect to remain contenders much longer. I hope Falvey and Levine can make the right decisions, but no way will they make us all happy no matter what they do.

Zach Granite minor league stats (over 1500 at bats) OBP is .359 and he going to have it at or over .400 in the majors? Man I sure hope so, but that might be aiming a bit high. Keplers was .363 in the minors and is sitting at .320 in the majors, Rosario's was .340 and is at .300 in the majors, but were considered much better prospects, but like I said I hope you are right.

[Tomj14]

After reading some of the comments, it looks like most want to trade and give away 2017 and 2018.

 

Players people are talking about trading, Dozier, Santana, Buxton, Rosario, Grossman.

Leaving a lineup next year of

c - castro

1b- Mauer

2b - Polanco

ss - Gordon (0 big league at bats)

3b - Sano

lf - ?

cf - Granite (4 big league at bats)

rf - Kepler

DH - Vargas

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Meija

SP - Gibson

SP - ?

SP - ?

 

So unless those trades bring immediate big league help, we go into next year much worse off than this year and looking at FA to fill holes and little to no depth again in starting pitchers.

 

We already have a pretty crowded 40 man roster. I could see trading Santana if our big 2 minor league pitchers were already here and showing signs of a good future but right now they are just wildcards. 

IMO if someone is willing to over pay we trade, and we try trading a few of prospects for close to ready or already in the majors starting pitchers. Think about this how many of our top 12 or so prospects are going to have even a decent major league career, the odds say very few.

[jorgenswest]

Sam Fuld had a .379 OBP throughout three seasons in the minors at the time he hit the majors. It didn't translate well to the majors because it wasn't backed up by ISO. He even had an AZFL split of 402/492/696 in 126 PAs.

 

How different in skills is Zach Granite from Sam Fuld?

[Shaitan]

You don't rebuild by trading your youngest players, even if they aren't performing.

[Thrylos]

I have not change my mind on this.  I think that the Twins should be both buyers and sellers and make adjustments that can help them both in 2017 and in the long run.

 

Things I would do: 

 

-I would knock on the Pirates' door to see whether Buxton (.663 OPS last month) can fetch Starling Marte (28 and under team control until age 32 season in a reasonable contract and the last 2 seasons with team options) and Felipe Rivero (25 and under team control for 4 seasons).   That will give the Twins a gold glove CF and lead of option who actually gets on base and steals some, and a real closer.

 

-I would knock on the Yankees' door to see whether Santana (5.34 ERA last month) can fetch Jordan Montgomery (24, 6 seasons of team control) and Giovanny Gallegos. (25, 6 seasons of team control).  Montgomery jumps into Santana's spot in the rotation and Gallegos at the set up role.

 

- I would knock on Milwaukee's door to see whether Dozier (.645 OPS last month) can fetch someone like Corbin Burnes (22) and Freddy Peralta. (21).  Both of those guys go to AA and Nick Gordon comes up to replace Dozier as the Twins' second baseman

 

- Go for a rental starter that will not cost an arm and a leg.  Matt Moore (28) might be an interesting target there, since he can be a free agent after this season and has 2 team options.  Change of a scenery guy that might just take another change of a scenery guy (Santiago) to get him.

 

- Sell High on Kintzler and get the best prospect package you can get.

 

That will give the Twins a rotation of Berrios, Montgomery, Mejia, Moore, Gibson, a lineup of Marte, Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Castro, Gordon, and a pen of Rivero, Gallegos, Rogers, Hughes, Duffey and two rotating pieces with the minors.   The pen and the lineup will be a definite improvement and the rotation a likely improvement esp. with short leash on Gibson and Moore who both have options.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Thrylos

[70charger]

 

It's entirely possible that the Twins find themselves well below .500 after running through this gauntlet. At that point, the decision sort of makes itself. So really, if the players in this group want to make a push, they hold their destiny in their own hands.

 

This is the key to the whole article. Personally, I find it less than likely that they make it through the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers with a winning record. 

[Deduno Abides]

And don't try to bring up the 1987 Twins as an example of what could happen.

 

Also, the '87 team was simply a better team. I like Santana and Berrios, but neither is as good as Viola was and they both may be, at best, peers with '87 Blyleven. I like Sano, but neither he nor anyone else approaches Puckett, much less Gaetti or Hrbek. Finally, Kintzler and Rogers are pretty good, but Reardon and Berenguer would be preferred by most. The comparison holds for non-stars, e.g., Brunansky > Kepler and Gagne > Polanco. In the future, Sano, Berrios, Buxton and others could be as good as the '87 stars, but not yet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would argue that you could set yourself up for 2018 but trading Dozier for a pitcher that is ready now.  Might be a kid in AAA. That may be a wash in 2017, but a win for 2018.

 

I don't see how trading Santana would be a win for 2018.

[Deduno Abides]

Sam Fuld had a .379 OBP throughout three seasons in the minors at the time he hit the majors. It didn't translate well to the majors because it wasn't backed up by ISO. He even had an AZFL split of 402/492/696 in 126 PAs.

How different in skills is Zach Granite from Sam Fuld?

 

Fuld was in the goofy Cubs system, pre Theo. They didn't give him 100 PAs until he was 27, when he produced 0.7 fWAR in 115 PAs. Nonetheless, they sent him back to AAA for most of the next season and he didn't get a real opportunity until the Rays gave him 105 games the following year, when he was 29. He had 1.8 fWAR that year. Then he started a run of injuries. It's hard to use his career as a guide, except to say the pre-Theo Cubs probably had no idea how to value players.

 

Also, Zach Granite is a better name than Sam Fuld.