Article: Red Sox 6, Twins 3: Series of Unfortunate Events

[Tom Froemming]

Kyle Gibson was rolling right along until, as it seems so often with him, things derailed. It was a strange series of events that led to Boston rallying from behind, much of which was outside of Gibson’s control, to be fair.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays (via Fangraphs)

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Download attachment: TopPlays629.png

The Twins jumped out to a 3-0 lead thanks to a brain fart by David Price, who failed to cover on a ground ball to the first baseman, and a Jorge Polanco two-run double. Despite the struggles from the bullpen this season, the Twins entered this game with a 29-2 when holding a lead entering the fifth inning, so things were looking good.

 

Unfortunately, Boston took the lead in an odd fifth inning for Gibson and the Twins. Gibby lost Hanley Ramirez after getting ahead 1-2, issuing a leadoff walk. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit an RBI double that, per Baseball Savant, only had a hit probability of 13 percent. In most parks it’s a lazy flyout, but instead it hit off the ladder on the Green Monster.

 

Things continued to go south, as Polanco made a fielding error. Anticipating a bunt from the next batter, the Twins had both Eduardo Escobar (who was playing third) and Joe Mauer crashing toward home plate. The batter hit a grounder back to Gibson, but with the wheel play on (Polanco was hustling over to cover third) and Brian Dozier heading over to first in case he had to cover, there was no opportunity for a double play.

 

The inning continued with another fluky hit from Mookie Betts, a single that had a hit probability of just 12 percent. This one was a chopper back up the middle that barely made it through the shifted infield.

 

Twins hitters also had a strange inning in the eighth. Joe Kelly managed to record a 1-2-3 inning, but it took him 27 pitches -- 12 to retire Robbie Grossman alone. You don’t often see a team work a reliever that hard and have absolutely nothing to show for it.

 

Phil Hughes made his first appearance back from the DL. He pitched well, going the final 1.2 innings, giving up just one hit while striking out two batters. We did see a slight uptick in velocity for Hughes. He had been averaging 90 mph on his fastball earlier this season, but he eclipsed 92 mph five times tonight. Nothing crazy, but beats the alternative.

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Some exciting news broke as the game was unfolding. Right-handed starting pitcher Felix Jorge will be promoted for Saturday’s doubleheader. The 23-year-old has a 3.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 for Chattanooga this season.

If you need to feel better after that loss, here’s the Price brain fart I mentioned earlier. Credit to Dozier for coming around to score from second on this play.

 

Postgame With Molitor

Postgame With Gibson

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

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Friday

Twins (Ervin Santana, 2.80 ERA) at Kansas City (Jason Vargas, 2.29 ERA) 7:10 pm CT

 

What in the world has gotten into Jason Vargas? After making a combined 12 starts over the previous two seasons, the 34-year-old lefty looks like the favorite to start the All-Star Game. He has a league-best 2.29 ERA and 11 wins.

 

Santana has pitched well at Kauffman Stadium over his career, holding a career 3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 29 starts at The K. Eric Hosmer has given Ervin some trouble, hitting .308/.438/.731 (1.168 OPS) with three homers. There will be a day-night doubleheader Saturday, so it’s imperative that Santana pitch deep into this game.

 

AL Central Standings

Cleveland 42-36

Twins 40-37 (-1.5)

Kansas City 38-39 (-3.5)

Detroit 35-43 (-7)

Chicago 33-44 (-8.5)

 

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[jun]

Hughes and Gibson should be long relievers.

[HitInAPinch]

Getting tired of Gibson's "bad luck".  Seems like game after game, he has "bad luck".

But glad to see Hughes back in the pen and, maybe, adding some stability.  

[drjim]

I'm surprised that the Red Sox aren't up in that division more than they are. Should win it by 10 games.

 

Twins obviously aren't as good as Boston and Houston, but they can still hang with everyone else.

[Old Twins Cap]

Some bad luck, sure.  But Twins did not play well last night or in this series.

 

Kepler let one get over his head.  Sano swinging out of his spikes.  Getting zilch out of the catcher position.  Buxton, still trying to find himself.

 

Young guys, learning on the fly that MLB ain't patty cake.  This will help, in years to come.

 

That statement has credibility now, as compared to 2011-2014.

 

 

[Linus]

Sorry not interested in the bad luck theory Kyle. He seems like a really nice guy but whenever he speaks about his performances I get the feeling he is in denial.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I'm surprised that the Red Sox aren't up in that division more than they are. Should win it by 10 games.

Twins obviously aren't as good as Boston and Houston, but they can still hang with everyone else.

 

The Twins haven't played the Yankees yet.  They have a +103 run differential.

Edited June 30, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[Tomj14]

The comebacker was terrible luck and then Gibson went to first instead of third. Our bullpen usage is terrible, why pull Gibson after the homer, let him finish the damn inning. It seems like Paul is looking to pull our starters out as fast as he can. If Gibson isn't mentally strong enough or is unable to get the final out in the 6th, cut him. he only had 88 pitches at that point.

It seems that our starters know that after the 5th they better not give up another hit or they are out of the game.

[drjim]

The Twins haven't played the Yankees yet. They have a +103 run differential.

Yankees will start to fade a little (still a WC favorite) if they don't make a big addition, they don't have the starting pitching depth.

 

By the end of the year all 3 divisions could have 10 game spreads.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Yankees will start to fade a little (still a WC favorite) if they don't make a big addition, they don't have the starting pitching depth.

By the end of the year all 3 divisions could have 10 game spreads.

 

 

Then I'm confused.  How do you expect the Twins to hang with the Yankees?  Do you feel the Twins starting pitching depth is as good as the Yankees?  The offense isn't close.  The bullpen isn't close.  The Yankee rotation isn't great, but 3-5 is WAY better than the Twins

[drjim]

Then I'm confused. How do you expect the Twins to hang with the Yankees? Do you feel the Twins starting pitching depth is as good as the Yankees? The offense isn't close. The bullpen isn't close. The Yankee rotation isn't great, but 3-5 is WAY better than the Twins

I think the Yankees are better than the Twins and the favorite for the first wild card. But there are two, and Twins should be able to hang in there for that. I do think barring a trade, Yanks do fade a little, but league behind division leaders is a muddled mess.

[Dantes929]

 

Sorry not interested in the bad luck theory Kyle. He seems like a really nice guy but whenever he speaks about his performances I get the feeling he is in denial.

Tom provided really good details about how Gibson was unlucky.    Two hits with about 10% probability is unlucky.    Gibson has been pitching pretty well lately and even this game he kept within reach.    Lead off walk is generally not bad luck though.   I don't accept bad luck over the long term.   Certainly applies in the short term.

[Cap'n Piranha]

My frustration with Gibson is that it seems like every time the team puts up some runs for him, he immediately gives them back in the next half inning. I'm not sure if that's statistically true, but it sure seems like it.

[Linus]

Tom provided really good details about how Gibson was unlucky. Two hits with about 10% probability is unlucky. Gibson has been pitching pretty well lately and even this game he kept within reach. Lead off walk is generally not bad luck though. I don't accept bad luck over the long term. Certainly applies in the short term.

Sure that happens. It happens frequently to all pitchers. He should be a lot more worried about the 3 run Homer that was crushed. What's your win probability in games where your starter gives up a 3 run homer? Not high.

[SwainZag]

 

Sure that happens. It happens frequently to all pitchers. He should be a lot more worried about the 3 run Homer that was crushed. What's your win probability in games where your starter gives up a 3 run homer? Not high.

 

Except there was no 3 run homer. Solo shots to Betts and Ramirez.

[Mr. Brooks]

The comebacker was terrible luck and then Gibson went to first

 

instead of third. Our bullpen usage is terrible, why pull Gibson after the homer, let him finish the damn inning. It seems like Paul is looking to pull our starters out as fast as he can. If Gibson isn't mentally strong enough or is unable to get the final out in the 6th, cut him. he only had 88 pitches at that point.

It seems that our starters know that after the 5th they better not give up another hit or they are out of the game.

Luck has nothing to do with getting caught playing for a bunt in the FIFTH INNING! Seriously, why on earth would they expect bunt there? Do they think Molitor is managing the Red Sox?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Luck has nothing to do with getting caught playing for a bunt in the FIFTH INNING! Seriously, why on earth would they expect bunt there? Do they think Molitor is managing the Red Sox?

 

Agreed, more bad tactics, based on their own bad tactics.

[Kwak]

 

Luck has nothing to do with getting caught playing for a bunt in the FIFTH INNING! Seriously, why on earth would they expect bunt there? Do they think Molitor is managing the Red Sox?

What words would have been used to describe a ground-ball that went through the infield instead of being fielded for a 6-4-3 DP?

[bluechipper]

Just a very sloppy series. 2 errors by Polanco, Kepler and Rosario both missed catches near the wall that should have been made, Sano continuing his bad slide at the plate, etc.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not only that, but Gibson is an excellent fielder. No reason to rush Mauer and send Dozier to cover first when Gibson can already cover that part of the infield.

[Linus]

Except there was no 3 run homer. Solo shots to Betts and Ramirez.

I'm getting old. I'm still not buying this view. Instead of complaining about the ladder don't let them hit it there. At what point do we just say he ain't getting it done because he is not good enough?

[SwainZag]

 

I'm getting old. I'm still not buying this view. Instead of complaining about the ladder don't let them hit it there. At what point do we just say he ain't getting it done because he is not good enough?

 

Meh.  In any other park that's an out, any other place on the entire monster Ramirez has no shot at scoring.  I thought Gibson threw a decent game yesterday and got a few unlucky breaks, which were looked at in depth in the write-up.  Yeah his interview he did complain a little bit, but it was deserved IMO. I would rather hear that than a candid "I didn't get the job done today" response, but that's just a personal opinion.

Edited June 30, 2017 by SwainZag

[Kwak]

 

Meh.  In any other park that's an out, any other place on the entire monster Ramirez has no shot at scoring.  I thought Gibson threw a decent game yesterday and got a few unlucky breaks, which were looked at in depth in the write-up.  Yeah his interview he did complain a little bit, but it was deserved IMO. I would rather hear that than a candid "I didn't get the job done today" response, but that's just a personal opinion.

I'm waiting for the "We're the Twins, s--- happens!" response.

[SwainZag]

 

I'm waiting for the "We're the Twins, s--- happens!" response.

 

Ha, we're a Minnesota sports franchise, s-- happens!

[drjim]

I'm getting old. I'm still not buying this view. Instead of complaining about the ladder don't let them hit it there. At what point do we just say he ain't getting it done because he is not good enough?

Maybe I'm too nice, but I found his performance acceptable for a backend starter.

 

To put it another way, his performance yesterday makes it more likely he stays in the rotation and is tendered a contract in the offseason.

[Linus]

Maybe I'm too nice, but I found his performance acceptable for a backend starter. And he is soon to be 30; the guy isn't some young prospect.

 

To put it another way, his performance yesterday makes it more likely he stays in the rotation and is tendered a contract in the offseason.

Agreed on the stays in the rotation. If he continues like this there is no way I would tender him next year. His number will be pushing 5 million. Take his money and Santiago money and get a real pitcher. I'm usually a glass half full guy but at some point the numbers don't lie. He has been a bad MLB pitcher for the vast majority of his time in the bigs. Edited June 30, 2017 by Linus

[h2oface]

What happened? Didn't anyone tell the rest of the team it was Gibson pitching? That is when they score 10 runs!

 

[drjim]

 

Agreed on the stays in the rotation. If he continues like this there is no way I would tender him next year. His number will be pushing 5 million. Take his money and Santiago money and get a real pitcher. I'm usually a glass half full guy but at some point the numbers don't lie. He has been a bad MLB pitcher for the vast majority of his time in the bigs.

 

They have over $20 mil (Santiago, Perkins, Kintzler, Belisle, Breslow) coming off the books, and not a ton coming back in guaranteed contract increases or arb players. Could save another $3mil if they move on from Escobar.

 

You could do Gibson, a legit starter, and a reliever and not increase payroll. If they want to bump payroll, they have a potential of $45mil coming off after 2018 (Mauer, Santana, Dozier), though that's when arb starts to hit.

[Linus]

They have over $20 mil (Santiago, Perkins, Kintzler, Belisle, Breslow) coming off the books, and not a ton coming back in guaranteed contract increases or arb players. Could save another $3mil if they move on from Escobar.

 

You could do Gibson, a legit starter, and a reliever and not increase payroll. If they want to bump payroll, they have a potential of $45mil coming off after 2018 (Mauer, Santana, Dozier), though that's when arb starts to hit.

I respect your premise but don't share your view. Money aside if they don't improve on him for their rotation I will be severely disappointed.

[drjim]

I respect your premise but don't share your view. Money aside if they don't improve on him for their rotation I will be severely disappointed.

At this rate, I would anticipate disappointment. Assuming they don't trade Santana, I would predict they sign or trade for a starter and go into the season with:

Santana, Berrios, addition, Gibson, May/Hughes/Mejia battling for last spot, with Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge waiting in minors.