Article: Making Zack Granite Fit

[Ted Schwerzler]

Looking at the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster, there are some easy-to-spot-disparities. Of course the team could use another top-tier starter, and they’re without an impact arm or two in the pen. If there’s a place that opportunity doesn’t abound however, it’s in the outfield. Right now, that’s to the detriment of minor leaguer Zack Granite. As he continues to tear up Triple-A though, the Twins will be tasked with making him fit.On the year, Granite is batting an insane .371/.423/.510 across 49 games for Triple-A Rochester. Over the month of June he’s turned it on even more, slashing .486/.541/.69 through the 27th. Despite being a speed- and defense- type player, Granite has looked the part of a real threat with his bat, and the results haven’t been cheap infield hits or bunt singles. While the sample size may be small, Granite is coming off a solid 2016 in which he was named the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, and he’s beginning to force the big club’s hand.

 

At the major league level, Granite figures to find himself in a rotational role with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario. The picture may have been clearer just a few weeks ago. As Rosario has continued his free-swinging tendencies, he owned just a .676 OPS through June 11. On one of his patented hot stretches, Rosario has turned in a .432/.479/.818 slash line across his last 14 games to raise his yearly OPS up to .795. What was once a player who looked like a demotion might have been coming, is now a guy who’s distanced himself from that notion.

 

Buxton and Kepler both have their deficiencies as well. For Byron, the bat continues to lag. However, the defense has been so exceptional, that even while owning an OPS in the low .600’s over the past few months, he remains above replacement level. The Twins center fielder is well on his way to a Gold Glove, and remains a lineup fixture because of it. Kepler has lost time to lefties, but has turned in a solid season thus far. While he has dealt with a bit of a slide lately, he’s not in a position to significantly lose time.

 

For Granite, that puts the Twins in an odd spot. All three outfield positions are spoken for, but he’s clearly demonstrated he can be an asset as well. Navigating playing time will take some work, but there’s a scenario that seems to make a lot of sense: make Robbie Grossman the every day designated hitter.

 

On the season, Grossman has been the Twins greatest on-base asset. Sure, he doesn’t hit for the power of a prototypical DH, but he has the ability to drive the gaps, flashes some speed, and can be an extra runner on the basepaths. While this would take away the role of Kennys Vargas, it’s not an incredible loss given the slide he’s taken in 2017. Vargas then becomes your backup first basemen, and a bench bat. Given the switch-hitting ability, albeit a lesser one as he’s struggled mightily against lefties, he profiles as a guy who, from either side ,with one swing, can lose a ball in the seats.

 

With the shuffle in the lineup, Minnesota would have the opportunity to get Granite no less than three starts per week. Right now, Paul Molitor sits Max Kepler against lefties due to his .440 OPS against them. Granite has compiled a .768 OPS against lefties and can hit pitchers from both sides at an above-average clip. When Buxton needs a day off, it’s Granite who would easily the next best option in center. And Rosario needs rest days as well. Throw in another start for a guy slumping or an attempt to make it two in a row, and the Twins have a pretty clear path for a near every-day spot to hand to Granite.

 

Making the roster fit, the Twins would need to clear a spot on the 25-man. Keeping Vargas as a bat-first backup first basemen, the club could thank Ehire Adrianza and send him on his way. Despite being applauded for his glove, Adrianza was always going to be a difficult pairing with Eduardo Escobar. The Twins long-time utility man can play more positions (even if at a lesser defensive ability), and he has a solid hit tool as well. Escobar backs up all over the diamond, and the Twins then no longer have a glove-only player on the bench.

 

Regardless of how the shuffle is made, Minnesota is nearing a decision-making crossroads when it comes to Granite. He’s clearly advanced beyond the constraints of Triple-A, and it appears he can help the big league club. An organization doesn’t want to see a prospect get bored at an unchallenging level, but they also can’t sacrifice the construction at the top just to make the pieces fit. If the Twins get creative, they can absolutely add a solid bat and plus defender to an already improved team. Zack Granite has been putting in work at Triple-A, and it appears he’s ready for his next challenge.

 

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[ThejacKmp]

Like this.

[drjim]

Hard to see how Granite and Rosario fit on the same roster.

[Brandon]

Vargas would be the one likely demoted in this scenario to get consistant playing time. Also Granite could rotate through DH as well if he keeps hitting .360 up here

[drjim]

Vargas would be the one likely demoted in this scenario to get consistant playing time. Also Granite could rotate through DH as well if he keeps hitting .360 up here

Very Jason Tyner like if Granite gets dh reps.

[Dr. Evil]

I would be cool with him replacing Adrianza and getting reps as you describe.

[Rosterman]

The issue. You have to keep Vargas (or eventually Park) because you do need a first baseman, not a fill-in...unless you give Kepler regular reps and thus eliminate that need.

 

Second, bringing Granite in means you now have five outfielders. Is he a better backup than Grossman (I would say yes). Is Grossman a better DH than, say, Park or Vargas? Not sure.

 

You have to eliminate a pitcher. Who do you send down. Busenitz? Boshers? Hildenberger? Plus we will have Haley coming back soon, too. But then that issue is WhY do we have Belisle, Breslow, Haley taking up bullpen space. Is Hughes going to be a plus or a minus (we will soon know). The rotation still has Santiago and Gibson. We have a lot of pitchers keeping other pitchers from pitching. And even if we jettisoned a whole slew of current pitching staffers, we know we have guys like Tonkin and Pressly that are no worse...or better...not to mention Hurley!

 

Can the Twins just go after the best 25 that they can put on the field and forget about salary commitment, long-term contracts, veteran presence, being nice to guys who WON'T BE HERE IN 2018 OR BEYOND! If the pieces aren't pulling their weight THIS YEAR and not expected to be here NEXT YEAR...then why just be a feeding ground for the player to maybe better themselves at the expense of the club.

 

[carlito_b]

I think the best way to get granite up and get at bats is to get Kepler in at first base.. He played it a lot in the lower level of the minors and assuming Mauer is about done in Minnesota Kepler could be the long term first baseman if need be.. Although I doubt they want to waste his athleticism at first in the short term it could get everybody at bats.. If u did that obviously vargas would be the one to go.. If Grossman has any trade value I'd move him for a reliever I still don't think he fits in long term

[LaBombo]

Good writeup and thorough analysis of how the Twins could move pieces around to utilize Granite.

 

But if you subtract the 100 points he's exceeding his career babip by, Granite is a .270/.320/.410 AAA lefty bat whose real assets are his speed and defense.  Not sure that's the boost that an outfield which already features two lefties, speed, and defense really needs.

[youngtwinsfan]

 

 

 

But if you subtract the 100 points he's exceeding his career babip by, Granite is a .270/.320/.410 AAA lefty bat

I wonder if his exit velocity has increased and that is the reason for the high babip. Or if he just has been the luckiest player in baseball this year.

[Dman]

I don't think anything happens for Granite until the trade deadline or an injury.  It is hard to trade position players at the deadline but if a team gave up something good for Grossman that would be ideal as Granite slots best in that role.  I think rotating and platooning that outfield while not giving up defense is a better long term strategy.  Also Granite works well as a late inning pinch runner to steal a base.

 

Lots of people on this board and scouting reports don't think he can be an everyday player as his OPS is weak for MLB.  Granted it is at 900 right now but there is a lot of season left and I don't think he has had a MILB season with even an 800 OPS.  

 

I am a big Granite believer and I think ultimately he proves the skeptics wrong but I think we will have to wait until there is room on the roster before we see him.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The issue. You have to keep Vargas (or eventually Park) because you do need a first baseman, not a fill-in...unless you give Kepler regular reps and thus eliminate that need.

 

 

Only issue is that Kepler is left-handed. The real solution is to start working on Grossman at 1B. He's never played it in the minors but you'd have to think he can pick it up. Especially because he'd be the 3rd 1B - the real solution is to drop Vargas, make Sano your 1B against lefties and use Escobar at 3B those games. Grossman would only come in if you need Sano to move to 3B due to injury in the middle infield.

[mikelink45]

Really good teams have excellent players stuck in the minors, but is that the case with the Twins?  It would seem that the problem always is with pitching.  If we cannot have decent starters we need to have 13 (maybe more) relievers.  And when the relievers are not that good we need even more to throw on the fire.  Berrios and Santana and then the roster falls apart. 

[h2oface]

Can't wait. It will be just like adding Cody Bellinger. 

[h2oface]

Or at least, Ben Revere.

[h2oface]

Or another Buxton. Didn't he hit .360 in AAA ball?

 

[D.C Twins]

A few points:

 

1. This is actually another referendum on our beleaguered pitching staff. When THREE starters in the rotation cannot be reliably penciled in for 5 or more innings, you have to have an extra pitcher (and a catcher who can pitch). This of course leads to 4 instead of 5 outfielders.

 

2. Rosario, Kepler, and Bux have not established themselves as unassailable outfield starters (though I do so like Kepler). I LIKE the idea of Granite up here pushing them in person. He will work extra hard to take their jobs when/if they think they are owed something.

 

3. Grossman has done great things with his OBP and is clearly a ‘sabermetrics’ asset at the top of the lineup. But flexibility is also key to succeed in a long baseball season. Granite provides that. Grossman is a one (very good) trick pony. Try to trade him, but if unsuccessful let him go catch on elsewhere. (I understand this will be very controversial). Give Granite a month as a 5th outfielder with Vargas in AAA. If he plays in MLB then move Grossman in the best way possible and bring Vargas back up.

[LaBombo]

 

I wonder if his exit velocity has increased and that is the reason for the high babip. Or if he just has been the luckiest player in baseball this year.

 

It's certainly possible that he's hitting the ball harder, and I don't mean that his numbers are entirely the result of good fortune. It's just that when a player of his age and history suddenly starts getting two hits on every five balls in play, there's cause for curiosity about how much is real improvement and how much is mirage.

 

I'm hoping the Twins focus on building a competitive team rather than on fielding a lineup every day that's optimized for the wildcard hunt. I'm hoping Granite can with the former more than the latter. It's just unfortunate that he's not a more natural fit with what the Twins have on their roster at the moment.

[rghrbek]

I think we are starting to see enough of Vargas to know he is a replacement level player.  I'm not giving up on him just yet, but that ob% is a problem.  

 

I think eventually Granite v. Rosario is a wash.  Granite, by all accounts, is fundamentally sound, and would offer similar value to rosario, although differently.  One has a better ops, one is a better fielder and will have a more consistent approach.  

 

I think the key is, and we have not discussed it much, is having Garver, a rh batter, play first base and dh, while being the 3rd catcher.  That way Molly may not be afraid to ph for gimenez.  Having Robby and Mitch as DH/1b to spell Joe and also add depth at catching would allow for us to carry Granite, who could be a legit 4th outfielder/ pinch runner, while also finding out if he is for real at the MLB level.

 

Something to think about...Vargas sample size is getting pretty big, and as Gleeman has pointed out, Vargas is a replacement level player.

[Brandon]

Very Jason Tyner like if Granite gets dh reps.

If i remember Tyner didnt walk alot so that hurt his obp. If granite is on over 36% of the time he would be fine at dh every now and then

[Jham]

Granite isn't so young or well regarded that he couldn't be a 4th outfielder. But he's also not so good you rearrange your line-up let alone roster for. In my opinion anyway. I doubt he belongs more than Adrianza and Vargas. And he's not in the same level as our current 4 outfielders. He can wait, or we can trade him if another team thinks he's legit. Who fetches more, Grossman or granite? Of course, I've been saying that Kepler is one of a couple guys on the team capable of returning an ace. That window could be shutting already as well... But if it meant getting an ace, ruling with granite is a risk I'd take. I find it unlikely that he's better than what we have.

[drjim]

I think we are starting to see enough of Vargas to know he is a replacement level player. I'm not giving up on him just yet, but that ob% is a problem.

 

I think eventually Granite v. Rosario is a wash. Granite, by all accounts, is fundamentally sound, and would offer similar value to rosario, although differently. One has a better ops, one is a better fielder and will have a more consistent approach.

 

I think the key is, and we have not discussed it much, is having Garver, a rh batter, play first base and dh, while being the 3rd catcher. That way Molly may not be afraid to ph for gimenez. Having Robby and Mitch as DH/1b to spell Joe and also add depth at catching would allow for us to carry Granite, who could be a legit 4th outfielder/ pinch runner, while also finding out if he is for real at the MLB level.

 

Something to think about...Vargas sample size is getting pretty big, and as Gleeman has pointed out, Vargas is a replacement level player.

Garver isn't going to be a better hitter than Vargas.

[drjim]

If i remember Tyner didnt walk alot so that hurt his obp. If granite is on over 36% of the time he would be fine at dh every now and then

Granite won't walk much either nor hit for a whole lot of power. If he can keep up a high average he'll have value, like Tyner.

 

Granite also brings more speed and defense, making him a more valuable 4th OF.

[Tomj14]

 

Garver isn't going to be a better hitter than Vargas.

Then Garver isn't a prospect and the we shouldn't think of him as a solution to any need.

[Tomj14]

 

The issue. You have to keep Vargas (or eventually Park) because you do need a first baseman, not a fill-in...unless you give Kepler regular reps and thus eliminate that need.

Why do you need to keep Park (not even on the 40 man) or Vargas? Between Mauer and Sano that position should be fine, and try Grossman or Kepler there.

[Mike Sixel]

today's fringe five installment:

 

Zack Granite, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
This represents Granite’s third consecutive appearance among the Five, and his inclusion here is the source of some anxiety for the author. For one, Granite struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances since last Friday. For a player with his skill set, elite contact rates are almost a necessity. And for two, the possibility has recently occurred to me that Granite will follow, more or less, Billy Burns‘ career path. Which, Burns certainly has his virtues — and actually parlayed his talents into a slightly above-average 2015 campaign (555 PA, 2.4 WAR) with Oakland — but the lack of power has placed considerable pressure on his other skills. Granite will need to sustain an isolated-power figure north of .100 in order to remain relevant in the majors.

Here he is, fortunately, recording a 3.000 ISO in a single plate appearance earlier this week: (video in story)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-94/

[drjim]

Then Garver isn't a prospect and the we shouldn't think of him as a solution to any need.

Generally agree.

 

He certainly hits enough to be a backup catcher (even a really good backup or borderline starter), but not sure if he brings enough glove.

[Linus]

Generally agree.

 

He certainly hits enough to be a backup catcher (even a really good backup or borderline starter), but not sure if he brings enough glove.

At this point the bar is pretty low to match Vargas production at the plate or in the field.

[drjim]

 

At this point the bar is pretty low to match Vargas production at the plate or in the field.

 

I agree, but calling up Garver would challenge that bar, but I suppose nothing wrong with giving him a shot before the deadline to see if they can catch some lightening. Much more likely they try and add a cheap corner bat near the deadline (if they do anything).

[Shaitan]

 

Granite isn't so young or well regarded that he couldn't be a 4th outfielder. But he's also not so good you rearrange your line-up let alone roster for. In my opinion anyway. I doubt he belongs more than Adrianza and Vargas. And he's not in the same level as our current 4 outfielders. He can wait, or we can trade him if another team thinks he's legit. Who fetches more, Grossman or granite? Of course, I've been saying that Kepler is one of a couple guys on the team capable of returning an ace. That window could be shutting already as well... But if it meant getting an ace, ruling with granite is a risk I'd take. I find it unlikely that he's better than what we have.

I agree with the first half of this, but no Twins player not named Miguel will land an ace. It takes package deals of 2+ top prospects for an ace, sometimes 3-5.

 

I think Granite shows promise, but he'll get his chance. These things tend to work themselves out as the season progresses.