Article: Breaking Byron Buxton

[Linus]

I think it was good to ditch the kick. He has to make better contact or he will never succeed. Kirby came up as a contact hitter with a compact swing. Once he was an accomplished big league hitter he added the leg kick. Buck also has a huge pitch recognition challenge as well.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have never read of anyone who said Buxton has a 'compact swing'.

Sending him to AAA would only reinforce his 'long swing'. He'll be able to hit those pitchers without making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

It would be like sending Rosario down to learn to swing at strikes. In AAA Rosario can hit anything they throw that's reachable with bat. It would only reinforce bad habits.

 

I don't know the solution. I do wonder if a fast, good CF with a OBP>=.330 would be better for the team than Buck looking hapless at the plate far more often than not.

And then I wonder if they could get a promising AA pitcher for him...

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe bringing Granite up in place of Vargas and giving Granite some playing time would be beneficial. Perhaps a little more bench time would send the message to Buxton better than being in AAA. The message being you need to perform or you won't play.

[Respy]

 

Why don't they move him closer to the plate?  I mean he's got 10-12 inches from his toes to the edge of the batters box.   

 

Not quick enough on those inside pitches.

[ewen21]

 

I have never read of anyone who said Buxton has a 'compact swing'.

Sending him to AAA would only reinforce his 'long swing'. He'll be able to hit those pitchers without making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

It would be like sending Rosario down to learn to swing at strikes. In AAA Rosario can hit anything they throw that's reachable with bat. It would only reinforce bad habits.

 

I don't know the solution. I do wonder if a fast, good CF with a OBP>=.330 would be better for the team than Buck looking hapless at the plate far more often than not.

And then I wonder if they could get a promising AA pitcher for him...

Buxton has 16 defensive runs saved this year, but he has just 32 runs produced this year with his offense and that is flat out terrible.  I am not saying defense does not matter.  It certainly does.  However, compared to pitching and offense defense is a distant third

[snap4birds]

He's in danger of having his nickname changed from "Buck" to "Buck Ninety Eight" if he doesn't figure out how to get that average above the Mendoza line.  

 

With the luck of the Twins, he'll probably figure out how to hit about a year before he becomes a free agent.

[alskntwnsfn]

Poor contact has to do with one of the following: 

 

a poor swing plane

poor timing

 

The worse your swing plane, the harder it is to be on time with the swing. Focusing on hitting groundballs will probably make contact harder, not easier. Buxton is usually too early, I think he needs to just let the ball get deeper. I know that's not a new theory, but it's true... and it's easier said than done, takes a lot of practice and repetition. 

 

http://www.efastball.com/images/hitting-ted-williams-swing-plane.jpg

 

[alskntwnsfn]

Awesome post Parker! The Seinfeld reference is spot on. We're all sick about hearing the pilot tell us we are flying around another weather pattern, when will we get there!? 

[IaFan1]

I get the defense thing on Buxton. He has been fantastic in that respect. But you just have to hit something to be in an everyday lineup. Hovering around the Mendoza line for a half season doesn't cut it. Especially when you have a CF with speed in Zach Granite tearing it up in AAA. Even if Granite came up and hit 100 points less then he is in Rochester he would still be in the .260's and surely not striking out 33% of the time. Buxton needs to go back to AAA and get hot again. Otherwise all you really have is a late inning defensive replacement who happens to play everyday.

[ewen21]

 

I get the defense thing on Buxton. He has been fantastic in that respect. But you just have to hit something to be in an everyday lineup. Hovering around the Mendoza line for a half season doesn't cut it. Especially when you have a CF with speed in Zach Granite tearing it up in AAA. Even if Granite came up and hit 100 points less then he is in Rochester he would still be in the .260's and surely not striking out 33% of the time. Buxton needs to go back to AAA and get hot again. Otherwise all you really have is a late inning defensive replacement who happens to play everyday.

The common rebuttal I have been given for sending him back to AAA is, "he won't learn anything down there"

 

Oh really?  Like he's learning anything up here?  One thing anyone should notice with Buxton if you watch his game and listen to his quotes on hitting is that he is not confident and he has literally no though process behind his at bats.  He also has tinkered and messed with mechanics over and over. Currently we have a player who is deserving of a promotion even though his name doesn't have the cache Buxton does.  What are we really trying to do here?  Can we at some point as fans admit that he just is not ready to step into a major league batter's box?

 

I will admit I was part of a large crew of folks who thought it was best to call him up in 2015 even though he was rushed.  I felt that way at the time because I hoped he would show flashes and that he would fill in bad spots with more flashes of goodness until he eventually became solid.  Well, it's now three shots he has had and he is not even close.  In my opinion, he has to go down.  NOW.  In the name of his development AND accountability this cannot go on any longer.  The team has surprised us this year and we are near the top of the division in July.  Why not send him down and call up Granite?  Too "kneejerk"??  Please.  Maybe Granite can prove he belongs and now we have another outfielder to consider.  It's best to set up some competition.  I don't think it is a good thing to give one guy special treatment (coddling) it is starting to become that with Buxton.   Send him down like you would any other player and hopefully he goes to Rochester and picks up the pace.  You cannot let a guy experience this much failure and pretend it won't have long term implications on the mental part of his game.  You also cannot give one guy endless rope while another deserving player stays down.  It is not a good thing for an organization,

 

Most of all, confidence seems to be an issue with Buxton.  The mental part of the game is something that can prevent a guy from becoming a major leaguer and he isn't going to get it by continually failing at the major league level.

Edited July 1, 2017 by ewen21

[HitInAPinch]

I'm not so sure any of this matters.  His pitch recognition is horrible.  Throw Buxton breaking balls outside the strike-zone and he'll swing at it.  If he get's close to it, fouls it off, whatever, bust him inside and dump another break ball outside.  He will swing and he will miss.   

[twinsbaby]

He is still an overhyped player, not a franchise player. His trade value is zero right now.

[Shane Wahl]

This is an amazingly good article.

[yarnivek1972]

Yeah, Buxton sure looks broken. Sometimes people think they know everything about this game. In my experience, no one does. An approach that doesn't work for some does wonders for others.

[Oxtung]

Yeah, Buxton sure looks broken. Sometimes people think they know everything about this game. In my experience, no one does. An approach that doesn't work for some does wonders for others.

what does this even mean? He has an OPS of .568 over the last 2 weeks.......

[yarnivek1972]

what does this even mean? He has an OPS of .568 over the last 2 weeks.......

The article was written June 29. I would presume the change took place that same time. Since then he's hitting over .300 and struck out just 5 times in 26 plate appearance. That is progress.

[Possumlad]

 

He is still an overhyped player, not a franchise player. His trade value is zero right now.

Your second assertion is flat-out false. Buxton would net a significant return if the Twins decided to trade him (they won't).

[Doomtints]

I'm not convinced that the problems are mechanical flaws over simply being green.

 

There are really no true red flags around Buxton. He is already providing value to the team, even with his weak bat. 

 

Tell me, what would the Twins W-L record be right now without Buxton?

Edited July 7, 2017 by Doomtints

[yarnivek1972]

 

I'm not convinced that the problems are mechanical flaws over simply being green.

 

There are really no true red flags around Buxton. He is already providing value to the team, even with his weak bat. 

 

Tell me, what would the Twins W-L record be right now without Buxton?

I don't know enough about hitting to make an informed analysis, but in my "fan's view" I would say it is not so much a flaw and more like being really bad at pitch recognition.  Is that part of being inexperienced?  Probably.  After all, lots of guys have leg kicks (and other motions) and do just fine.  Clearly it is an approach that can be successful at the MLB level.  But what eliminating it does for Buxton is give him that extra split second to see the pitch and have a better chance to do something with it.  Perhaps with experience and better pitch recognition, he'll go back to it someday.  But what it does in the short term is turn him from a near automatic out into a useful MLB hitter.  Quite frankly, that's all he needs to be for the next couple years.  Useful.  Impactful hopefully in the future.

[Linus]

Even without the leg kick he still is kind of long as his hands are held high and it seems to take an extra split second to get to the zone. He's also off balance a lot-hes kind of a diver which doesn't help. Anyway glad for the improvement.

[Parker Hageman]

Just wanted to add something to this: Since the start of July, Buxton has lowered his hands (back to where they were in September of last year, btw) and has far less movement in bringing them back to the load position. It's very efficient compared to where he was just a few weeks ago. Plus, you see him loading more with his upper half (his numbers turning toward the pitcher more are indicative of this). The results have been more solid contact. 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/883382416777326596

 

Launch angle still needs work. He's not going to hit for power on the ground. I would argue that his "base hit" to third the other night against the Angels was also a gift from the official scorekeeper (a better throw would have gotten him but Pennington threw it away). Nevertheless, exit velocity doesn't lie. He's hitting the ball harder. It is a start. 

 

 

[drjim]

Seems his k rate keeps dropping too. It's not often you get to watch such a talent rebuild a swing on the fly in the majors. He deserves credit.

 

I still strongly believe it's all going to come together, and it's going to be glorious.

[Oxtung]

The article was written June 29. I would presume the change took place that same time. Since then he's hitting over .300 and struck out just 5 times in 26 plate appearance. That is progress.

Yeesh. Has it only been a week since this was written. Seems like his non-leg-kick has been around so much longer. Since that is the case we really don't have any data to make a judgement one way or the other. It's just too SSS. Case in point his BABIP is .381 over that same span. When that normalizes his BA will drop, though perhaps not to his previous Mendozian levels.

[yarnivek1972]

Yeesh. Has it only been a week since this was written. Seems like his non-leg-kick has been around so much longer. Since that is the case we really don't have any data to make a judgement one way or the other. It's just too SSS. Case in point his BABIP is .381 over that same span. When that normalizes his BA will drop, though perhaps not to his previous Mendozian levels.

With his speed, Buxton should have no problem maintaining a BABIP north of .350.

[Oxtung]

With his speed, Buxton should have no problem maintaining a BABIP north of .350.

Do you have anything to support that claim? He doesn't hit the ball hard so that will negatively impact his BABIP.

[yarnivek1972]

Do you have anything to support that claim? He doesn't hit the ball hard so that will negatively impact his BABIP.

Wouldn't not hitting the ball hard increase his chances of getting a hit if it is hit on the ground?

 

How many infield hits does he have already this year that would be outs for anyone else? I remember two in the last week. Doesn't that increase his BABIP?

 

Rod Carew had a career BABIP of almost .360. He certainly didn't hit the ball particularly hard. In his younger years, he was blazingly fast.

[ewen21]

 

The article was written June 29. I would presume the change took place that same time. Since then he's hitting over .300 and struck out just 5 times in 26 plate appearance. That is progress.

He deserved the criticism for being an awful hitter for almost 700 at bats. I will not apologize for the criticisms I made a little over a week ago. Nor should anyone else.  He has been one of the worst hitters in the major leagues over the last three seasons.  That is not a take.  It is a fact and it isn't mean spirited or wrong to point it out

[Oxtung]

Wouldn't not hitting the ball hard increase his chances of getting a hit if it is hit on the ground?

 

How many infield hits does he have already this year that would be outs for anyone else? I remember two in the last week. Doesn't that increase his BABIP?

 

Rod Carew had a career BABIP of almost .360. He certainly didn't hit the ball particularly hard. In his younger years, he was blazingly fast.

So Your point is Buxton hitting the ball softer actually increases his BA? That seems an odd stance to take. The amount of hits added due to lower exit velocities on the ground would be more than cancelled by the reduction in hits to the gaps/outfield. Not to mention the corresponding drop in ISO.

 

I've been searching for a correlation between speed and BABIP and while there is a general sentiment that speed positively increases BABIP the only study I could find showed a very low correlation (r^2=.08) between Bill James "speed score" and BABIP. If you find anything different I'd love to read it.

 

Until then I'll remain skeptical that Buxton can maintain a .350 BABIP given his current exit velocities.

 

Just to add some context to this, only 13 players in baseball had a BABIP >.350 in baseball last season. That doesn't include Billy Hamilton btw who has a .302 career BABIP in ~500 games.

[yarnivek1972]

So Your point is Buxton hitting the ball softer actually increases his BA? That seems an odd stance to take. The amount of hits added due to lower exit velocities on the ground would be more than cancelled by the reduction in hits to the gaps/outfield. Not to mention the corresponding drop in ISO.

 

I've been searching for a correlation between speed and BABIP and while there is a general sentiment that speed positively increases BABIP the only study I could find showed a very low correlation (r^2=.08) between Bill James "speed score" and BABIP. If you find anything different I'd love to read it.

 

Until then I'll remain skeptical that Buxton can maintain a .350 BABIP given his current exit velocities.

 

Just to add some context to this, only 13 players in baseball had a BABIP >.350 in baseball last season. That doesn't include Billy Hamilton btw who has a .302 career BABIP in ~500 games.

Hitting it softer would only help his average when he hits it on the ground. Like I said. Please don't change my words to bolster your argument.

[twinsnorth49]

Just wanted to add something to this: Since the start of July, Buxton has lowered his hands (back to where they were in September of last year, btw) and has far less movement in bringing them back to the load position. It's very efficient compared to where he was just a few weeks ago. Plus, you see him loading more with his upper half (his numbers turning toward the pitcher more are indicative of this). The results have been more solid contact.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/883382416777326596

This was always more relevant than his leg kick/no leg kick thing. The guys load and start to his swing was a hot mess. He's way shorter to the ball and is able to let the ball travel a little deeper on him. Nice to see