Article: Twins Select Royce Lewis First Overall

[gagu]

 

Someone's going to have to explain this to me. Why is justification in taking a certain player No. 1 overall made by the selections of two other players at 35 and 37? The Twins didn't get those two picks because of who they took first overall. 

"It's ok if the top pick wasn't so good because we know the rest of baseball -- including us -- totally snoozed on the guys we got at 35 and 37!" How does that make sense? 

2012 draft. Astros cut a lower deal with Correa at 1.1 and had the extra $$ to get McCullers to pass on his commitment to Florida. Right or wrong, it looks like the Twins are hoping lightning strikes twice.          http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1205703-top-mlb-draft-prospect-lance-mccullers-prepared-to-bring-the-high-heat

[drivlikejehu]

 

OK. Whatever. The Reds suck at picking, too, if you like. Still livid. They didn't pass on Greene when they had the opportunity, though.

 

So what you're saying is that the Twins just didn't want an ace? It was an easily available commodity and they just were like "eh, who cares, we don't need Hall of Fame pitchers anyway"?

[jimmer]

 

OK. Whatever. The Reds suck at picking, too, if you like. Still livid. They didn't pass on Greene when they had the opportunity, though.

while I obviously hope Lewis does very well for us, I'll be rooting for Greene for a long time as well.

Edited June 13, 2017 by jimmer

[adorduan]

 

2012 draft. Astros cut a lower deal with Correa at 1.1 and had the extra $$ to get McCullers to pass on his commitment to Florida. Right or wrong, it looks like the Twins are hoping lightning strikes twice.          http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1205703-top-mlb-draft-prospect-lance-mccullers-prepared-to-bring-the-high-heat

Hoping is not a plan.

[twinsfanstreif]

I would love to go back and read these comments 5 years from now

[beckmt]

They must have had an idea of what Lewis would sign for before the draft.  Maybe they will be double-crossed again by Boris, but it will depend on how badly Lewis wants to sign.  Was not happy with the pick, but will wait and see how it turns out.  Maybe they saw things in the pitchers they did not like, or maybe McKay just played too much hard ball with them.  

[Roaddog]

Greene wasn't a consensus #1. He's a gamble, just like the others. As far as pitching goes, we still have 30 plus rounds. Relax

[beckmt]

See the NC pitcher fell all the way to 15.  Clubs seem to be doing more diligence than before.  Scary that high school kids went 1-3.  Maybe the Cubs model with success of position players early is changing thinking in the front offices.

[Mike Sixel]

See the NC pitcher fell all the way to 15.  Clubs seem to be doing more diligence than before.  Scary that high school kids went 1-3.  Maybe the Cubs model with success of position players early is changing thinking in the front offices.

They also traded well, and signed an ace. The twins traded for meyer and may, and won't sign an ace.

[jimmer]

I like the Tigers pick.

[h2oface]

 

So what you're saying is that the Twins just didn't want an ace? It was an easily available commodity and they just were like "eh, who cares, we don't need Hall of Fame pitchers anyway"?

 

No. That is what you said, and quite well. I say what I want to say. I really don't know what your point is in engaging me now. I have the right to my opinion, as do you, your's. I have nothing for you further here.

[Cooz]

 

It's like the Twins don't realize that the Twins have a 21 year old SS Nick Gordon (our top prospect I might add) hitting .311 at AA. Add in Palacios as his viable running mate in the middle infield and with a dire need for starting pitching in the coming years, we instead draft a player at a position we don't need who is likely 4-5 years out??

 

To be fair, the current regime did not draft Gordon, and Lewis is 17 years old and is an exceptional athlete for his age. If Gordon pans out as a SS, perhaps they like Lewis in LF down the road. Maybe it's the other way around.

Reports indicate the Twins wanted McKay, and perhaps they wanted him to pitch. One reason or another, he turned them down. So just by that, Lewis was no better than their second option. I initially thought they wanted McKay to pitch and perhaps he wanted to play 1B. Someone else mentioned his reaction when he was drafted (they called him a first baseman, allegedly he was under the impression he'd be announced as a two-way player), so perhaps that wasn't the case. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

No. That is what you said, and quite well. I say what I want to say. I really don't know what your point is in engaging me now. I have the right to my opinion, as do you, your's. I have nothing for you further here.

 

If you're going to share your opinion, someone else might point out that's it's not logically sound. That's just how it goes.

[h2oface]

 

Reports indicate the Twins wanted McKay, and perhaps they wanted him to pitch. One reason or another, he turned them down. So just by that, Lewis was no better than their second option.

 

The pitcher with the highest ceiling wasn't even the second choice of this Front Office. Telling.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think people are marking too much of this Boras thing.  Boras was talking to all those teams and had a pretty good idea where Lewis was going to go. I would say that cutting a below slot deal with MN could still maximize his client's return which is a win/win for both teams in that aspect.  Boras isn't the problem here unless he does a 180 and change his demands, which would be pretty foolish and not very Boras like.  He strikes a bargain when he has leverage and makes smart moves for his clients when he does not. I don't think Lewis has that kind of leverage. We aren't talking about the next Ken Griffey Jr. here.

 

As for underslot, I think we forget that if you want a major leaguer, your best bet is to get one in the first round as they are much MUCH harder to come by later. Getting someone with first round talent that falls is a lot easier to do when you have the flexibility to go overslot. It also allows them to go heavy on HS players all through the draft, and those are the guys who tend to have much higher ceilings. 

 

To be clear, I'm not a fan of the Lewis pick. I do hope I'm wrong and we just walked away with the next A-Rod (minus the mental issues and steroids), but I'm not sure the strategy is necessarily bad. The Twins will obviously have a much better idea as to who will be around at 35/37 later tonight than we do. Yes, they don't have control about it, but one thing we do know is that someone ALWAYS falls, and they probably have a pretty good idea as to which someone(s) will fall tonight. My bigger concern is that they need pitching now, and short of Seth Romero who will likely be there (but presents a pretty significant risk of his own), they just punted on their best option to add a quick rising starter to the fold.

[Cooz]

 

2012 draft. Astros cut a lower deal with Correa at 1.1 and had the extra $$ to get McCullers to pass on his commitment to Florida. Right or wrong, it looks like the Twins are hoping lightning strikes twice.          http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1205703-top-mlb-draft-prospect-lance-mccullers-prepared-to-bring-the-high-heat

Obviously no one can suggest the Astros missed the boat on that, but logically, that really doesn't make much sense for the team that has more (bonus pool) money than everyone else. I'm not an agent, but if the Twins call me and say we're going to pay you x, would you take that if we drafted you at 35? All I'm doing is saying "I don't know. Lemme call the guys at 31-34 and see if they'll offer me more, because what I really want to do is leverage YOU at 35, because: 

A.) You went cheap with the top pick, giving me the impression you are over-valuing the 35th pick (certainly more proportionally than you valued the 1st pick).

B.) You have more money available, so logically, you SHOULD be able to spend more than the teams around the 35th pick, but what's more important is you CAN spend more, so I'm going to shop around.

C.) And thank you for giving me all the power in this conversation. Not sure how many guys you feel are worth paying over slot at the 35th pick but I'm going to guess that list isn't very long and I'm at or near the top of it. Unless your plan was to compile a list of several players you'd like to overpay at this spot . . . ?

Tell ya what, though, if no one else is willing to pay me a little more than you are, congratulations, you got yourself a player no other team was willing to pay as much for at 35 overall. Let's pop the champagne, because you, like everyone else, are smarter than everyone else. 

[gagu]

 

Hoping is not a plan.

Hope is the word I used. I understand the comment, but suggesting that Falvey doesn´t have a plan seems to be jumping the gun a bit. The sup picks haven´t even been made yet. The repetitive boilerplate "Twins FO will blow it" comments are wearing on me. The Falvey regime has hardly started. 

[Willihammer]

I would love to go back and read these comments 5 years from now

Or in a couple hours.

[twins_89]

 

2012 draft. Astros cut a lower deal with Correa at 1.1 and had the extra $$ to get McCullers to pass on his commitment to Florida. Right or wrong, it looks like the Twins are hoping lightning strikes twice.          http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1205703-top-mlb-draft-prospect-lance-mccullers-prepared-to-bring-the-high-heat

 

The strategy of getting above slot talent that slips at #35 isn't looking good at this point. Carlson and Kendall are about the only top 20 players still on the board.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Hope is the word I used. I understand the comment, but suggesting that Falvey doesn´t have a plan seems to be jumping the gun a bit. The sup picks haven´t even been made yet. The repetitive boilerplate "Twins FO will blow it" comments are wearing on me. The Falvey regime has hardly started. 

 

A lot of posters essentially blame Falvey & Levine for things that happened before they were even hired, by conflating past and present decisions as being collectively made by "the Twins." Various reasons for this are given - lack of turnover among supporting staff, ownership, etc. But it's not reasonable at all.

[ALessKosherScott]

If they wanted to save money they should have selected Bukauskas.

The right answer is never taking Adam Johnson 2.0.

[PseudoSABR]

It's clear the Twins were not in love with any of the options at the top.  So picking a player they like just as much with less risk (as non-pitcher), and saving money to get two more guys they want at 35 and 37 makes a lot of sense to me.  

 

As the margins between slots gets tighter and tighter, whatever money the Twins were able to save will have greater leverage as the draft moves into even later rounds.   I'm excited to see what they get at 35 and 37, but the Twins set themselves up to get high upside players throughout the draft.

 

There's a clear logic, that can work to the Twins benefit.  Of course the actual players will determine the success of the draft, but the blueprint itself has no logical flaws.    It mitigates the risk of drafting a pitcher number one while giving more flexibility and leverage throughout the rest of the draft. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by PseudoSABR

[Willihammer]

The strategy of getting above slot talent that slips at #35 isn't looking good at this point. Carlson and Kendall are about the only top 20 players still on the board.

Carlson sticks out like a sore thumb tho. We'll see, still 11 more picks to go.

[jimmer]

Kendall is gone.

[Major League Ready]

 

Good for McKay. Entitled is the system. The individual, no matter when, has the right to take control of ones career. This is a lot of supposition here.

 

Did you see his face when he was selected.  He was selected lower than he expected and as a 1B.  He looked like he was not happy with the way it played out.  .

[Mike Sixel]

After pick forty, it is random. And they are using the same scouts that drafted Stewart and Jay. Some skepticism is reasonable. It's gotta be Carlson art this point.

[drivlikejehu]

 

After pick forty, it is random. And they are using the same scouts that drafted Stewart and Jay. Some skepticism is reasonable. It's gotta be Carlson art this point.

 

It's not random after 40, the decline in value just becomes increasingly gradual until eventually its not significant. But that happens well after 40.

[h2oface]

 

Did you see his face when he was selected.  He was selected lower than he expected and as a 1B.  He looked like he was not happy with the way it played out.  .

 

Again, as it was posted earlier, it is reported that was a mistake, and what surprised McKay. Tampa was wanting McKay to be announced as a two way player. He was rightfully annoyed and surprised.

[Mr. Patient]

I'm surprised at how many people who have seen maybe one Youtube clip of a high school righthander who threw 28 innings this year are ready to pronounce themselves experts and excoriate a new front office with many years of scouting and development experience and who saw the high schooler in person multiple times this year.

 

Is Greene a better pick than Lewis? Maybe! But you sure as heck have no idea, and neither do I. I suspect that Falvey & Levine have a somewhat better idea.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Lewis could wind up at SS, 2B, 3B, CF, or LF. The idea that his selection means anything for Gordon or any other player is just completely wrong.

 

Just edited that.  Based on what I've heard his arm is Revere-like...