June 12, 20179 yr I'm quite concerned about his velocity number in general, and the fact that his velocity drops even lower after 55-60 pitches. I just don't see that combination as a front of the rotation starter. I get that. I'd be way more excited if he sat in the mid-90's, but with his other pitches and his control, I can see him at the top of a rotation. A lot of pitchers succeed throwing 90-94.
June 12, 20179 yr Well he is a lefty, which is a plus for me. Hope he proves me wrong if he's the pick.
June 12, 20179 yr 12:40Josh: If you were the Twins, who would you pick? 12:40Travis Sawchik: I am not a draft expert. But Hunter Greene is the most compelling guy, for me, in the field
June 12, 20179 yr There's a reason McKay is viewed as a top 5 pick by everyone. Great command, great curveball, and a good fastball. Who is projecting him as a back end starter?If you look at the past 15 years or so, the college guys drafted in the top 15 picks that actually became legit front-of-the-rotation starters all come out of college with big fastballs: Cole, Harvey, Sale, Strasburg, Price, Lincecum, Scherzer, Verlander, Prior. The only exception to this is possibly Jered Weaver. There is also a pretty long list of polished lefties with good-but-not-elite stuff that didn't amount to much in the majors: Sowers, Romero, Detwiler, Matusz, Minor, Bradley, Hultzen, Heaney. If you want to find exceptions to this, you really need to go all the way back to the 1990s when the A's selected Zito and Mulder. Maybe there is something about McKay that makes him unique in this regard, but I think there is a lot of historical evidence that pitchers like McKay will struggle.
June 12, 20179 yr McKay. workhorsepoisedaccuratecalmnice consistent deliveryproven himself at a high level of competitionmaturitysweet swing Pick him. Not to mention a sweat soaked cap with a little rosin mixed in.
June 12, 20179 yr There's a reason McKay is viewed as a top 5 pick by everyone. Great command, great curveball, and a good fastball. Who is projecting him as a back end starter? Well looking at the odds of draft pick success, that's probably the most realistic outcome for any pitcher drafted at or near the top of the draft. Plenty better, plenty worse. Plenty exactly that. Looking at McKay, his velocity, handedness, draft position, repertoire and level of competition look most like Brian Matusz to me; both had huge college numbers also. Matusz was always a top prospect but his stuff never translated, even in the minors. That's only one sample point so it's nothing to base a projection on and I haven't heard any of the draft wonks use the comparable, it's just who I see.
June 12, 20179 yr 12:40Josh: If you were the Twins, who would you pick? 12:40Travis Sawchik: I am not a draft expert. But Hunter Greene is the most compelling guy, for me, in the field ...in the field. He talking about SS or just the general field of players in the draft?
June 12, 20179 yr If you look at the past 15 years or so, the college guys drafted in the top 15 picks that actually became legit front-of-the-rotation starters all come out of college with big fastballs: Cole, Harvey, Sale, Strasburg, Price, Lincecum, Scherzer, Verlander, Prior. The only exception to this is possibly Jered Weaver. There is also a pretty long list of polished lefties with good-but-not-elite stuff that didn't amount to much in the majors: Sowers, Romero, Detwiler, Matusz, Minor, Bradley, Hultzen, Heaney. If you want to find exceptions to this, you really need to go all the way back to the 1990s when the A's selected Zito and Mulder. Maybe there is something about McKay that makes him unique in this regard, but I think there is a lot of historical evidence that pitchers like McKay will struggle. Great post... Thanks for doing the research!
June 12, 20179 yr ...in the field. He talking about SS or just the general field of players in the draft? Not sure. He didn't clarify it on the Fangraphs chat.
June 12, 20179 yr If you look at the past 15 years or so, the college guys drafted in the top 15 picks that actually became legit front-of-the-rotation starters all come out of college with big fastballs: Cole, Harvey, Sale, Strasburg, Price, Lincecum, Scherzer, Verlander, Prior. The only exception to this is possibly Jered Weaver. There is also a pretty long list of polished lefties with good-but-not-elite stuff that didn't amount to much in the majors: Sowers, Romero, Detwiler, Matusz, Minor, Bradley, Hultzen, Heaney. If you want to find exceptions to this, you really need to go all the way back to the 1990s when the A's selected Zito and Mulder. Maybe there is something about McKay that makes him unique in this regard, but I think there is a lot of historical evidence that pitchers like McKay will struggle.How many college guys in the top 15 or so picks didn't have big fastballs?
June 12, 20179 yr There's a reason McKay is viewed as a top 5 pick by everyone. Great command, great curveball, and a good fastball. Who is projecting him as a back end starter?McKay's performance later in games is a real concern. Widespread reports of velo loss by inning 5. In the game I saw (vs Oklahoma two weeks ago) he started hanging curveballs around pitch 55 (a sign of fatigue) and almost totally abandoned it by the end of his stint, moving to a 84 mph cutter instead which hitters made a lot of contact on. He struckout 5 of the first 7 batters in that start but only 2 of the next 17. Maybe when he turns pro and doesn't have to hit in the same game he pitches in, he'll have the energy to maintain velo a little deeper. Maybe he's got a mechanical flaw causing him to waste energy. Could be fixable. Or could be he just doesn't have the stamina to go deep into games consistently no matter what.
June 12, 20179 yr workload data on college pitchers! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-workloads-of-2017s-top-draft-prospects/
June 12, 20179 yr LH college pitchers drafted in the top 10 since 2007: David PriceDaniel MoskosRoss DetwilerBrian MatuszMike MinorDrew PomeranzDanny HultzenAndrew HeaneyCarlos RodonKyle FreelandTyler JayA.J. Puk
June 12, 20179 yr ...in the field. He talking about SS or just the general field of players in the draft?I would assume "in the field" of all draft prospects. Doesn't really make sense, otherwise.
June 12, 20179 yr LH college pitchers drafted in the top 10 since 2007: David PriceDaniel MoskosRoss DetwilerBrian MatuszMike MinorDrew PomeranzDanny HultzenAndrew HeaneyCarlos RodonKyle FreelandTyler JayA.J. Puk hmmmm.....a few names stick out bad and good there, for me. And one super depressing one.
June 12, 20179 yr If you look at the past 15 years or so, the college guys drafted in the top 15 picks that actually became legit front-of-the-rotation starters all come out of college with big fastballs: Cole, Harvey, Sale, Strasburg, Price, Lincecum, Scherzer, Verlander, Prior. The only exception to this is possibly Jered Weaver. There is also a pretty long list of polished lefties with good-but-not-elite stuff that didn't amount to much in the majors: Sowers, Romero, Detwiler, Matusz, Minor, Bradley, Hultzen, Heaney. If you want to find exceptions to this, you really need to go all the way back to the 1990s when the A's selected Zito and Mulder. Maybe there is something about McKay that makes him unique in this regard, but I think there is a lot of historical evidence that pitchers like McKay will struggle. I think the good McKay as a pitcher reminds me a lot of Barry Zito. And the bad McKay is something closer to Christian Friedrich. At the same time, the bad McKay as a hitter is probably pretty close to the bad version of Joe Mauer and the good version the good version of the first baseman Mauer. So I'm not sure I get putting him on the mound given we're about 18 months away from a Mauer-less existence.
June 12, 20179 yr Well I assume he'll focus on whichever looks most promising early in his MiLB career (assuming he does both out of the gates). Given that, 50% on each seems about right given only the information we have today. Of course if he fails at one the probability that he later suceeds at it falls a bunch, but I'm not sure how we'd know that today. I'm hoping the Twins take McKay just because I'm curious as to how this plays out. Pitch? Hit? Both? May not help the big club in the future but it's a heck of a story line!
June 12, 20179 yr Didn't McKay's velocity drop coincide with him trying a new pitch? I thought he pitched pretty well down the stretch for Louisville regardless of his velocity and his secondary pitches are supposed to be pretty solid. A lefty can get away with slightly less mph than a righty.
June 12, 20179 yr I don't buy him gaining velocity if he gives up hitting. I just dont Yeah, I mean didnt Buxton pitch 98 the year we took him outta HS? He was obviously an every day guy then too. So I doubt McKay would have a big bump up at this point.
June 12, 20179 yr Warren Spahn was an all time great. But despite what Bob Feller liked to claim, no one was throwing all that hard back then. There were probably only a handful of guys who regularly hit 90MPH prior to 1960s. Which was also why those guys could go 8-9 innings every start every 4th day. Interesting that you mention Feller. Went goose hunting with him one morning on our farm when I was about 11 or 12. Gave me a baseball with a very nice personal comment. While in college, my parents sold the farm and my Mom tossed it with a lot of other stuff.
June 12, 20179 yr KLaw Chat in 10 if interested: http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/06/12/klawchat-61217/
June 12, 20179 yr KLaw Chat in 10 if interested: http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/06/12/klawchat-61217/ I asked: If the Twins take McKay or Lewis, will they be the top prospect in MN?
June 12, 20179 yr Yeah, I mean didnt Buxton pitch 98 the year we took him outta HS? He was obviously an every day guy then too. So I doubt McKay would have a big bump up at this point.Yes Buxton was clocked up to 98 on the mound his senior year. There is YUGE difference between two way playing in HS and two way playing in College, especially a D1 school. By concentrating solely on pitching, skills are honed instead of getting by with athletic ability. McKay is considered the first real Top 5 pick as a pitcher and as a hitter since Dave Winfield in 1973.
June 12, 20179 yr Didn't McKay's velocity drop coincide with him trying a new pitch? I thought he pitched pretty well down the stretch for Louisville regardless of his velocity and his secondary pitches are supposed to be pretty solid. A lefty can get away with slightly less mph than a righty. I generally agree that lefties can get away with slightly less mph than a righty. Though I'm a big believer in velocity being a key indicator of a pitcher's success. There's a new article on Fangraphs "In Game Velocity Changes - When Fatigue Attacks" that discusses the fine line of velocity and a pitcher's success. Matt Harvey for example was very very good when he sat at 96 and 2 plus secondary pitches. Now he looks like a shell of his former self now that he's sitting at 92. Arietta this season is seeing a drop in velocity, and as a result, struggling with a 4.68 ERA. If McKay is sitting at ~90 right now, and he loses any sort of velocity along the way, I fear the Twins drafted Tommy Milone.
June 12, 20179 yr I asked: If the Twins take McKay or Lewis, will they be the top prospect in MN?Gotta be, especially as 1:1. Who else Gordon? Romero? Gonsalves?
June 12, 20179 yr Gotta be, especially as 1:1. Who else Gordon? Romero? Gonsalves?Kohl Stew....wahhhhhh
June 12, 20179 yr Gotta be, especially as 1:1. Who else Gordon? Romero? Gonsalves? Gordon. If they draft a guy that isn't better than him, sigh. But, others have said on other threads that those two might be behind Gordon, hence my question.
June 12, 20179 yr First prep bats taken since 2008: Tim BeckhamDonovan TateManny Machado (as Bryce Harper was technically a 17-year-old Juco guy)Bubba StarlingCarlos CorreaClint FrazierNick GordonBrendan RodgersMickey Moniak
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