Article: Giants 13, Twins 8: Bullpen Vets Lead Twins To Loss

[Tom Froemming]

How much does veteran leadership cost? Well, on Sunday afternoon it cost the Twins nine runs. Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow got crushed, blowing a game the Twins were leading 5-4 heading into the bottom of the seventh.

 

Despite the ugly loss, it’s a pretty amazing time to be a Twins fan right now. The team is still in first place after going 6-4 on a West Coast road trip and tomorrow they’ll finally be making their choice for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Byron Buxton even had a good game today!Giants 13, Twins 8

Box Score

 

Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WX611.png

It would probably be an appropriate time to write a eulogy for Matt Belise’s pitching career, but nobody would take any joy in that. It’s been a good run, he’s been a big leaguer for 14 years, but after getting rocked for four runs in 0.2 innings, his ERA is all the way up to 8.59. With his reputation, I’m sure he’ll have no trouble staying in the game as some type of a coach if he so chooses. No roster moves have been announced, but you have to figure it’s only a matter of time now.

 

What's gone wrong for Belisle? Well along with an increase in walks (BB percent is up from 3.8 in 2016 to 13.6 this year), he's giving up more hard contact and more fly balls. That's a recipe for disaster. Info below via Fangraphs:

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Craig Breslow, one-upped Belisle by giving up five runs in the eighth. He had been pitching fairly well prior to tonight’s meltdown, but almost exclusively in low-leverage situations. Both Belisle and Breslow were added over the offseason in large part to add leadership to the bullpen. We'll see just how much the team values that leadership based on how much longer they stick around.

 

The big intrigue leading into this one surrounded Nik Turley making his major league debut. Things got off to a rough start, as the 27-year-old lefty gave up a pair of runs in the first inning. His teammates picked him up by tying the game in the bottom of the first. Turley settled in some after that, but he only pitched four innings, giving up four runs on eight hits. He had four strikeouts and did not walk a batter.

 

Brooks Baseball had Turley maxing out at 95 mph, and he managed to get eight swinging strikes on 73 pitches (10.95 percent whiff rate). It wasn’t a great start by any means, but he probably won’t be taking the next flight to Rochester, either. Lord knows Turley’s traveled enough this season. Here’s a look at all the transactions he’s been involved in so far this season, via MiLB.com:

Download attachment: TurlyTransactions.png

Eduardo Escobar had a big night, going 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBI. Byron Buxton had two hits, one of them a home run, and also made a four-star catch, according to Statcast.

Here’s the catch, via FSN on Twitter:

Today

Twins (Adalberto Mejia, 4.18 ERA) vs. Seattle (Yovani Gallardo, 6.26 ERA), 7:10 pm CT

 

This will be a rematch from Wednesday, which the Mariners won on a walk-off homer. Seattle scored three runs off Mejia over his five innings pitched, but only managed a pair of hits (both home runs) off the lefty in that contest. Gallardo went seven innings in that game, giving up five runs. He’s pitched well at Target Field over his career, logging a 3.65 ERA over four starts.

 

AL Central Standings

Twins 32-27

Cleveland 31-29 (-1.5)

Detroit 30-32 (-3.5)

Kansas City 28-34 (-5.5)

Chicago 26-35 (-7.0)

 

From Yesterday’s Game

 

Unfortunately, some of the really cool, fun stuff I like to look at isn’t always available right when I write these up. Here’s Kennys Vargas’ monster homer at AT&T Park from Saturday with a Target Field overlay vis ESPN's Home Run Tracker:

Download attachment: VargasTF.jpg

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Good work!

 

Hard to figure why Molitor brought in Belisle in the 7th up by a run.  Or, why he left him in after a lead-off walk, an infield hit, a double, another double, etc.

 

But, with a winning road trip in the bag, it's a luxury to be able to rest Duffy, Kintzler and Rogers.

 

It's still a loss though, in a game they could have won.

 

Turley did not have good command, but he does have good stuff.  He can help once he gets used to the Majors.

 

If Sano had a better game, on both sides of the ball, the Twins win this one easily.

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Are Belisle and Breslow better than Hildenberger, Melotakis and Curtiss? Seems like a good time to find out how good a couple of these guys are. 

[Seth Stohs]

I'd feel pretty good about guessing that Belisle's got another year or two of big league time coming. But have no problem with a different direction.

[mikelink45]

If leadership is demonstrating how to handle miserable results the Twins have gotten their money's worth.  So that lesson learned - lets move on.  I can tolerate young arms imploding more than old ones on this team. 

[Tomj14]

If the twins let Belisle fly home on the team plane that was a mistake. They should have cut him after the game, and said we have and will pay you quite a bit a money. Good Luck

 

There is no reason to have a 37 pitcher with an ERA of 8.59 on this or any team.

[drjim]

 

I'd feel pretty good about guessing that Belisle's got another year or two of big league time coming. But have no problem with a different direction.

 

I would feel less good. Teams don't usually keep signing mediocre relievers in their mid/late 30s with exploding bb and hr rates to mlb contracts.

[Mike Sixel]

Who are they leading, exactly? All the other veterans? 

[Doomtints]

This type of performance and management is becoming too predictable. Someone is in over his head.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Two things--Buxton is so fast he doesn't even look like he's running fast in that video.

 

Second--when a catch is assigned a catch rate of 44%, is that number based on Buxtons abilities, or a generic fielder? For instance, if Grossman was for some inexplicable reason playing center field when that ball was hit, it's nowhere near a 44% chanc it's caught.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Two things--Buxton is so fast he doesn't even look like he's running fast in that video.

Second--when a catch is assigned a catch rate of 44%, is that number based on Buxtons abilities, or a generic fielder? For instance, if Grossman was for some inexplicable reason playing center field when that ball was hit, it's nowhere near a 44% chanc it's caught.

Those numbers are based on the average fielder. The bulk Statcast catch probability data is available over at Baseball Savant. It's based upon the hang time of the ball and the distance the fielder had to cover to get to it. The percentages come from historical data on similar plays from the last two seasons.

 

So basically what they're saying is on similar plays over the past two years the outfielder was only able to make that catch 44% of the time. And, you're right, Buxton made it look pretty routine. Guy is amazing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would feel less good. Teams don't usually keep signing mediocre relievers in their mid/late 30s with exploding bb and hr rates to mlb contracts.

Yup. Belisle was already on thin footing, given his average-to-low leverage use from the previous few seasons.  Blowing up in higher leverage for the Twins, at age 37, could be the end of the MLB line for him.

[Oldgoat_MN]

When I see a young man who is chasing his dream to get to the Major Leagues I am always kind of pulling for him. After years of sub-minimum wages in the minor leagues I hope he gets a real chance to show he can succeed in MLB.

 

I cannot generate the same level of patience with a 37 year old pitcher who has had, by nearly any measure, a successful MLB career. After making >$24 million he has been well rewarded for all his hard work. Congratulations!

 

I have to agree with mikelink45 above, though when he said "I can tolerate young arms imploding more than old ones on this team."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup. Belisle was already on thin footing, given his average-to-low leverage use from the previous few seasons.  Blowing up in higher leverage for the Twins, at age 37, could be the end of the MLB line for him.

 

And yet, on the roster he is. 

[yarnivek1972]

I think we fans need to stop making excuses for Belisle. It's entirely likely that a 3 run (or more) meltdown in less than 1 IP every couple weeks is simply who he is now. He's already had 4 such outings. What's the point of keeping a guy that you have zero confidence to use in any kind of close game? It's time to cut bait.

[drjim]

 

I think we fans need to stop making excuses for Belisle. It's entirely likely that a 3 run (or more) meltdown in less than 1 IP every couple weeks is simply who he is now. He's already had 4 such outings. What's the point of keeping a guy that you have zero confidence to use in any kind of close game? It's time to cut bait.

 

Are people actually making excuses for Belisle? It think the vast majority of people want him gone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are people actually making excuses for Belisle? It think the vast majority of people want him gone.

I think people were making excuses for him, after his first few 3+ run outings. "Can't judge by ERA" etc.  But I agree, fan opinion is coming together on him now.

 

Unfortunately, the team opinion doesn't seem to be moving, still putting him into close games with a long enough leash to completely blow it...

[drjim]

 

I think people were making excuses for him, after his first few 3+ run outings. "Can't judge by ERA" etc.  But I agree, fan opinion is coming together on him now.

 

Unfortunately, the team opinion doesn't seem to be moving, still putting him into close games with a long enough leash to completely blow it...

 

Fair enough, I should have said "Are people STILL making excuses". I do think a front office is almost always going to give a free agent signing a couple of months before they move on.

 

They've probably hit that point though. As soon as Pressly is back he's gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if Breslow soon follows, now that Boshers looks competent. Once Breslow goes, it will give them a bullpen spot to start rotating some of the prospects through. Wimmers can stay as the long man for now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They've probably hit that point though. As soon as Pressly is back he's gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if Breslow soon follows, now that Boshers looks competent. Once Breslow goes, it will give them a bullpen spot to start rotating some of the prospects through. Wimmers can stay as the long man for now.

I wouldn't wait for Pressly.  Get a few reps for Hildenberger or Busenitz or whoever they think is next in line.  Odds are you will need bullpen reinforcements later anyway -- even if they don't stick now, there is value in getting them acclimated to the big leagues before you may have to call on them in a pennant race.  (And also see how they acclimate/adjust a bit before you have to make July trade decisions.)

[Brandon]

Time for Belisle to go. I hate to say it. I wanted to see him get his era down to the high 4s but i don't see that as a possibility anymore. Not worth a spot at his production level. Though we could swing a trade and restart the Neshek era again.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Brandon

[wavedog]

I thought I would take a look at his game logs for this season - 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/5829/matt-belisle

 

Man, when he goes south he goes in a big way.   Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde. He is pitching more like a rookie, I would expect a veteran to be able to collect themselves and limit the damage in those situations. He has had several nice quiet outings as well but the overall line is ugly.   

[Doomtints]

 

I thought I would take a look at his game logs for this season - 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/5829/matt-belisle

 

Man, when he goes south he goes in a big way.   Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde. He is pitching more like a rookie, I would expect a veteran to be able to collect themselves and limit the damage in those situations. He has had several nice quiet outings as well but the overall line is ugly.   

He was great last year, but this year he has 4 utter meltdowns and 3 more bad performances on top of those 4.

It looks like he is missing the strike zone v. righties.  He's trying to be too fancy. His velocity is up a touch, if he slows down a bit so he can have better control he should be fine.

But games like the last one, he's gotta stop that.  .

[John Kelsey]

 

He was great last year, but this year he has 4 utter meltdowns and 3 more bad performances on top of those 4.

It looks like he is missing the strike zone v. righties.  He's trying to be too fancy. His velocity is up a touch, if he slows down a bit so he can have better control he should be fine.

But games like the last one, he's gotta stop that.  .

 

He can work on that stuff for someone else. He should have been gone a month ago. 

[yarnivek1972]

Fair enough, I should have said "Are people STILL making excuses". I do think a front office is almost always going to give a free agent signing a couple of months before they move on.

 

They've probably hit that point though. As soon as Pressly is back he's gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if Breslow soon follows, now that Boshers looks competent. Once Breslow goes, it will give them a bullpen spot to start rotating some of the prospects through. Wimmers can stay as the long man for now.

No really, he can't be. Wimmers does not have the ability to get MLB hitters out with any kind of regularity. 25 pitches already and he's gotten 3 outs.

[drjim]

 

No really, he can't be. Wimmers does not have the ability to get MLB hitters out with any kind of regularity. 25 pitches already and he's gotten 3 outs.

 

Yea, that didn't age well. He'll be gone after tonight. I don't have an especially strong opinion on who the long man is at any given time, just like that they are active in rotating them through (as they have been). Haley will have to make a triumphant return at some point.

[Mike Sixel]

Yea, that didn't age well. He'll be gone after tonight. I don't have an especially strong opinion on who the long man is at any given time, just like that they are active in rotating them through (as they have been). Haley will have to make a triumphant return at some point.

Given both of the killer bees are still here I got no idea what the bullpen plan is at this point.

[yarnivek1972]

40 pitches. 4 outs. Not exactly qualifying as a long man.

[yarnivek1972]

IMO Belisle and Wimmers can both be DFA. Next!!! At some point maybe it will be Busenitz or Hildenberger. There aren't many left down there to try.

 

Edit: Rochester is off today. Hildenberger threw over 30 pitches Sunday. Busenitz just 15.

Edited June 13, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[drjim]

Given both of the killer bees are still here I got no idea what the bullpen plan is at this point.

I don't get it either at this point. Once they called Pressly back up Belisle really brings nothing to the table.

 

Seems they are delaying the inevitable.