Article: Max Kepler's Growth Follows A Marlin's Path

[Ted Schwerzler]

At age 24, Max Kepler has now played 167 major league baseball games. The German-born product has a full season of big league experience under his belt, and the $800k investment Minnesota made to sign him looks to be paying off. When projecting what he could be in the future, there's one player that I can't seem to get out of my head.

 

Enter the Marlins Christian Yelich.I began making this comparison back in March of 2016, suggesting that Kepler could be a better version of the Marlins outfielder, or if nothing else, a very similar player. Now through 51 games in 2017, we're starting to see that come to fruition. Yelich was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2013, while Kepler checked into the top 50 just once (and among only two national outlets). However, their skill sets seem quite similar, as do their frames, and the numbers are starting to bear that out.

 

Through June 6, Chistian Yelish owns a .270/.348/.407(.755 OPS) slash line with 14 extra- base hits, seven of which have been homers. He's worked a 40/23 K/BB ratio, and he's driven in 25 runners. On the flip side, Max Kepler has compiled a .269/.348/.462 (.810 OPS) line in 2017, along with 21 extra-base hits, of which also seven are homers. He owns a 40/21 K/BB ratio and has 25 RBI to his credit.

 

Opening up the hood just a bit further, the underlying peripherals are all virtually the same as well. To illustrate just how close we're talking, take a look at some of these numbers:

 

Yelich- 9.7 BB% 16.8 K% 33.9 Hard% 24.1 O-Swing% 81.6 Contact% 7.8 SwStr%

Kepler- 10.0 BB% 19.0 K% 37.4 Hard% 24.9 O-Swing% 77.9 Contact% 9.1 SwStr%

 

When looking at their spray charts, things continue to remain in line. Sure, Kepler pulls the ball to right field a bit more, but he is also a bit more uneven in his splits against opposite handed pitchers. While facing righties, Kepler owns a .901 OPS compared to a .463 OPS against lefties. Yelich remains more balanced with a .768 OPS against righties and a .665 OPS against lefties. For the most part however, they continue to work the same.

 

Defensively, things are comparable as well. In 2017, Yelich has operated solely as the Marlins centerfielder, moving over from left. Kepler has played mainly right field for the Twins, but has sprinkled in some time in center. To date, Yelich has been worth 4 DRS with a UZR of 3.0 and RngR factor of 4.7. Kepler has compiled 7 DRS for Minnesota while totaling a 4.0 UZR and a 2.3 RngR factor. A season ago, both players checked in with UZR totals right around 0.0, while being worth 6 DRS apiece.

 

So, what do we make of it all, other than the Twins might have their own version of Christian Yelich? Well, at this point, that doesn't mean all that much. Yelich is a really nice player, and he's got a Gold Glove to his credit, but the accolades pretty much end there. In 2016, he did win a Silver Slugger and came in 19th in the NL MVP voting. He's never been an All-Star, and while being a familiar name, he's not necessarily regarded as among the best in the game.

 

While no doubt overshadowed by his teammate Byron Buxton, Max Kepler is in the conversation with Aaron Judge defensively among right fielders. Unfortunately Mookie Betts exists and is running away with Gold Glove consideration for AL right fielders, but Kepler should be a finalist at the end. He's always going to have stiff competition for Silver Slugger awards, but he very realistically could be a 20/10 or even 20/20 guy (with work on the base paths).

 

Given what was expected of Yelich coming up as a prospect, and the arc of his career thus far (he just started for Team USA in the WBC), allowing Minnesota to have their own version is far from something the Twins would scoff at. Kepler is not all that far removed from last year's .734 OPS in 113 games during his first big league season, but as he's settled in, the height of his play has risen as well.

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to be salivating at the opportunity to build a core around Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, but Max Kepler is far more than a throw-in. We're seeing him turn into a legitimate name in this league, and it may be just the beginning.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

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[Bill Brown69]

I always doubted Kepler when he was in the minors but fell in love when he got to the majors and I could watch him.

 

I have posted this before but the player Kepler reminds me of is Ellis Burks only a left handed version. I can see Max becoming a 20-25 homer guy with 30+ doubles for years to come. To me he is the prototypical #2 hitter and could easily score 100+ runs.

 

I say sign the guy to a 10 year contract!!!!

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I always doubted Kepler when he was in the minors but fell in love when he got to the majors and I could watch him.

 

I have posted this before but the player Kepler reminds me of is Ellis Burks only a left handed version. I can see Max becoming a 20-25 homer guy with 30+ doubles for years to come. To me he is the prototypical #2 hitter and could easily score 100+ runs.

 

I say sign the guy to a 10 year contract!!!!

Ellis Burks – career slash line: .291/.363/.510 (.874)

 

I would love that! Optimistic, but it is really fun to watch Kepler play ball. I always feel that something good could happen when he steps into the batters box.

[adorduan]

Well, he might be "overshadowed" by Buxton, but he's also been the better major league player so far also.  It wouldn't be crazy that he ends the better player over their careers of the 2.

[Steve Lein]

 

I always doubted Kepler when he was in the minors but fell in love when he got to the majors and I could watch him.

 

I have posted this before but the player Kepler reminds me of is Ellis Burks only a left handed version. I can see Max becoming a 20-25 homer guy with 30+ doubles for years to come. To me he is the prototypical #2 hitter and could easily score 100+ runs.

 

I say sign the guy to a 10 year contract!!!!

 

I'll always remember watching Kepler at Spring Training in 2012. He was playing with the Beloit roster that also had Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas on it.

 

Kepler was the best player on that team that week, and it wasn't particularly close (Here's an oppo-double from him back then). Hit line drives everywhere, flew around the bases. I was actually astonished he did not play in the Midwest League that season, though an injury may have played a part in that.

 

He was the first (and maybe only) player where seeing him in person drastically changed my outlook on him for the better (and I already thought highly of him). You're selling him short, he's going to be a #3 hitter .

[jimmer]

I have been a big Kepler believer for a long time. Loved his defense and offense. Nice to see him doing well for us.

[Bill Brown69]

 

Ellis Burks – career slash line: .291/.363/.510 (.874)

 

I would love that! Optimistic, but it is really fun to watch Kepler play ball. I always feel that something good could happen when he steps into the batters box.

 

Coors Field helped Burk's slash line but he had a 50 WAR career.

[Bill Brown69]

You're selling him short, he's going to be a #3 hitter .

 

 

I have no doubt that he could handle #3 but my perfect lineup has right-hander guy a lot like him at #3, Sano at 4 and another power hitter at 5 with a 2017 May Joe Mauer hitting 6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

My thought on the #2 hitter is that it should be a guy who hits a lot of line drives and doubles. Speed at the leadoff can score from first on a long double. Second part is if the leadoff guy doesn't get on the #2 guy needs to be on second with 1 out.

[Willihammer]

Kepler looks so confident right now. All season really. Its fun to watch.

[Vanimal46]

Perhaps he can be paid similarly to Yelich too.... 7/$49 MM. Who says no?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Perhaps he can be paid similarly to Yelich too.... 7/$49 MM. Who says no?

Arb eligible: 2019, Free Agent: 2023

Sign him to that today and you buy out two years of Free Agency.

Would his agent go for that?

Interesting idea, though.

[Vanimal46]

 

Arb eligible: 2019, Free Agent: 2023

Sign him to that today and you buy out two years of Free Agency.

Would his agent go for that?

Interesting idea, though.

 

Could be a win-win for both parties. Kepler gets a guaranteed long-term contract and could be a FA entering his age 32 season. That's still young enough to get another big pay day before he hangs it up. 

The Twins know exactly what they're paying Kepler for the long-term and make additional plans around that. 

[Respy]

A very good statistical comparison.  Generally I would agree that they are fairly comparable players.  A striking difference I will point out, though, is that Kepler had a minors career K% of 15%, while Yelich was at 21%.  While both of them are at precisely 20.4% for their MLB career so far, Yelich has had 2363 plate appearances while Max has only had 673.  Also the two of them have put up similar numbers, while Yelich has a huge MLB BABIP of .354 while Max is quite low at .275.  In the long run, I'd place good money on Kepler being significantly better offensively.  And despite Yelich winning a gold glove and the small sample size on Kepler, advanced defensive metrics on Fangraphs seem to give Kepler a slight advantage here as well.

[jimmer]

Ive seen comparisons to Shawn Green.

[Thrylos]

If I were to compare Kepler to a player he reminds me of both in style of play, power and speed combination, glove, and demeanor (albeit Kepler is very soft spoken in his young age,) it will be Paul O'Neil.   Check out the OBP difference between Kepler and Yelitch, Burks, Green etc.  And check O'Neil's career numbers, esp in an early age. 

[Bill Brown69]

 

 

 

[Bill Brown69]

 

If I were to compare Kepler to a player he reminds me of both in style of play, power and speed combination, glove, and demeanor (albeit Kepler is very soft spoken in his young age,) it will be Paul O'Neil.   Check out the OBP difference between Kepler and Yelitch, Burks, Green etc.  And check O'Neil's career

 

 

Another good comp, although if you take Coors field out of the Burks line you have very similar stats, 4 doubles for 3 HR and plenty of each. Both line drive hitters with a decent eye and a lot of solid contact while playing very good OF defense

 

[old nurse]

I think that Kepler is just like Carl Furillo but just a little bit different.

[nytwinsfan]

Kepler is also more than a year younger than Yelich and has been in the majors a much shorter period of time (673 PAs v 2,363 PAs).

[gunnarthor]

Kepler's really turning into an all around solid player. He does a bit of everything. He's a lot better than I thought he'd be, especially in the OF.

[Brandon Warne]

Max Kepler hits the ball in the air.

Christian Yelich does not.

[USAFChief]

I've said it multiple times, but when I watch Kepler I see Paul O'Neill.

 

Which would be a pretty good thing, if true.

[Darius]

Good comparison, I like it.

 

I think he could easily be better than Yelich in the future. I think the sky's the limit for this kid. He'll get stronger and hit for more power. I think the average will come up with experience. His defense could get even better.

 

He's already a very nice player. It's tough to be a corner OF All-Star. I'm not sure he'll hit quite that much (some of those guys are 30-40 HR, 120 RBI, etc). But, I don't know if it's totally out of trouble question for him to put up the requisite stats to get there at some point.