Article: What Went Wrong For Ryan Pressly?

[Parker Hageman]

On Wednesday afternoon, following yet another bullpen meltdown, the Twins announced the decision to option Ryan Pressly to Rochester.

 

They made other moves too -- including designating for assignment lefty Jason Wheeler -- but Pressly’s demotion hurts. The right-hander had allowed 19 runs in 18 innings of work, owning a swollen 9.50 ERA. Both his walk rate and his home run allowed rate ballooned alongside the ERA. While he was far from the only contributor to the relief corp’s recent collapse, Pressly could no longer be trusted to handle the assignments.

 

The thing is, on paper, Ryan Pressly has all of the qualities of a quality shutdown reliever, someone Paul Molitor should have no lack of confidence in at the end of a game. For one, Pressly shoves upper 90s heat, a rare commodity from someone in Twins uniform. The list of Minnesota pitchers dating back to 2009 who have reached 99 MPH or higher begins and ends with Juan Morillo and Ryan Pressly. Two, he has a snapdragon curveball that toys with the laws of physics and melts minds. And three, like a Turkish celebrity chef, Pressly will season an at-bat with a harder slider, just to keep a hitter’s head ringing.

 

These are three plus pitches and yet Pressly struggled in 2017 to keep opponents from squaring him up. What went wrong for the 28-year-old and can he rebound?In April, following a bad stretch of appearances, Pressly tried to assess his issues. In his eyes, he was nitpicking, failing to attack the strike zone. His manager believed it was possible he was “overthrowing”. Both may be true but there is another issue at play and that is the notion that Pressly has fallen into a predictability pattern. The right-hander, who has one of the better breaking balls in the game, refuses to turn to it until there are two strikes in the count. This means hitters can eliminate that pitch from his arsenal in certain counts -- specifically early in the count -- and just hunt speed.

 

Download attachment: Ryan Pressly 2017.JPG

Download attachment: Ryan Pressly.png

Rehabbing pitcher Trevor May talked at length this spring about the need to alter the hitter’s ability to eliminate pitches. May discussed the idea of throwing more of his secondary pitches in counts he did not regularly do so in order to give opponents something to think about. Almost every pitcher falls into patterns, he said, such as leaning on one particular pitch type in certain situations. If, for example, a hitter knows he will not see any offspeed pitches in a 1-1 count, he might swing from the heels at the fastball.

 

“If they can never eliminate them you are going to have a leg up every single time because it is much more luck on their part,” May said. “That’s the goal.”

 

In Pressly’s case, teams have likely circulated scouting reports which inform their hitters to look for a fastball in those counts above because they will rarely see anything else. They can eliminate Pressly’s best pitch, his curveball, right away and one of the reasons why they are having success in those particular counts.

 

There does not seem to be a clear explanation for why Pressly doesn’t mix in his curveball in those counts. When he does decide to throw something other than a fastball early in the count, it is usually his slider/hard cutter. It is possible that Pressly, who has not been consistently throwing his bender in the zone this year, may shy away from using it early in counts because he is afraid of falling behind. The logic could be that curveball drops out of the zone so fast, hitters may refrain from chasing after it and thus put him in another 1-0 hole. Still, if hitters are not expecting a curveball and are actively hunting fastballs, it would stand to reason that they might be fooled by the curve and swing over it or beating it into the ground for an easy out.

 

The fact of the matter is his curveball -- the big, slow, time-and-space altering curveball -- is bar none his best pitch. In his five seasons at the major league level, Pressly’s curveball has had a .183 batting average against. Over the last two years he has maintained a swinging strike rate of over 20 percent. What’s more, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci pointed out this month, smart teams have learned that one of the quickest avenue to pitching success is by throwing your best pitch most often.

 

Spin is highly influential in the results when it comes to curveballs and Pressly’s uncle charlie rotates at one of the highest rates in all of baseball. At over 2,900 RPM on average, Pressly’s pitch had the 11th highest spin rate according to StatCast data. This number is significant because curveballs with that type of data generate low batting averages (as seen above), low exit velocity (Pressly’s is at a low 83.5 MPH vs 86.3 MPH league average), and high swing-and-miss rate (32% miss rate). With these types of returns, Pressly should be spinning his curveball every chance he gets. As Red Sox manager John Farrell told Verducci, “The data is showing, if the curveball is your best pitch, use it more often.”

 

Pressly is blessed with one of the best pitches in the game and, to his detriment, he has not been using it to its fullest potential. For the sake of the Twins’ bullpen, it is a shame that someone as gifted as Pressly has not be able to elevate to the status of lockdown reliever. Perhaps time in Rochester will help him regain some confidence in the pitch as well as give him an opportunity to break off a few snappers in counts he normally would have avoided.

 

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[terrydactyls]

No offense Parker, but if some blogger in the Upper Midwest can figure this out, then why the heck can't highly paid professional baseball coaches/managers do it? Aren't analytics supposed to be a huge factor (pardon me for sounding like Trumpelstilskin) in the new and improved front office? Pathetic.

[HitInAPinch]

At 28 yrs old and still trying to figure it out is a clarion-type warning.  

[Eris]

While it is convenient to place the blame on Pressly and he was also the one demoted, there is a catcher involved in the pitch selection as well. Has Pressly been shaking off the catcher or is he throwing what is called.

[Old Twins Cap]

He can't throw the curve for strikes.  Ergo: players cross it off the list.

 

Fastball at 97?  Bring it, the batter says.  And it flies a long way.

[Blackjack]

 

While it is convenient to place the blame on Pressly and he was also the one demoted, there is a catcher involved in the pitch selection as well. Has Pressly been shaking off the catcher or is he throwing what is called.

Thats what I was also thinking as I read the article, where is the VETERAN catcher that the Twins signed to help the pitchers??

[Eris]

 

He can't throw the curve for strikes.  Ergo: players cross it off the list.

 

Fastball at 97?  Bring it, the batter says.  And it flies a long way.

 

That is certainly part of the problem.  Per fangraphs, last year he threw 180 curveballs and 122 were strikes (68%).  This year, so far, he has thrown 63 curveballs, and only 31 have been strikes (50%).  I don't know if this is on Pressly or if batters have  figured out that they can't hit his curveball and just layoff the pitch.  Someone with more skill than I would need to evaluate the data if there is a difference in his in-zone vs. out of zone strike %.  Analytical data cuts both ways.  It tells pitchers what they need to throw for strikes, but it also helps batters identify what pitches to avoid.

[Darius]

Really disappointing. There was a stretch recently in which he looked elite.

 

Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted. This pitching staff is in a full-on, unrecoverable, death spiral. The season is over.

[Comrade Bork]

The majority of relievers have a shortish window. Maybe his just closed.

 

If it's so easy to diagnose, than you bet the MLB staff has noticed it which points me in the direction that he can't execute his pitches well enough.

[FunnyPenguin]

 

Really disappointing. There was a stretch recently in which he looked elite.

Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted. This pitching staff is in a full-on, unrecoverable, death spiral. The season is over.

A cup o' optimism?

[bighat]

Like many of you, Pressly was NOT on my list of 'players to worry about' when the season started. Even when he struggled early. Having one of our 'reliable' guys go down in flames is not a good sign!

[Mill1634]

He is buns. He doesn't have the mental makeup. Needs a new place, like little league to get that confidence back up. 

[mikelink45]

Two writers have jumped on my thoughts - the catcher.   Last year I wrote about our pitching coach and he is still here and still not showing me anything, but I guess he and Paul are a team. 

 

Pressly is the latest of a long list of players not making the transition and prospering in the MLB.  This winter we kept the pitching coach, but changed the overall system according to articles - I cannot judge and we brought in a pitch framing machine and his side kick to turn our pitchers into something they have not been.

So what has happened?  Berrios was the big disappointment last year - this year he has shown what we wanted in games one and two and slipped in games 3 and 4 - MLB tutelage?

 

Pressly should be throwing what the catcher calls and that is why we have two Mendoza line hitters behind the plate, but wait his selection is poor - whose - Pressly or Castro?   We have watched a sequence of relief meltdowns.  One is expected, but not three in a row.  What happened?  

 

Why has Belisle (who is said to be a good influence for the bullpen - was he hired as a counselor?) lost his ability?  Where did pitch framing take Gibson?  Has Santiago turned the corner (the wrong way on a one way) with his relief stint and recent starts?

 

Sorry to see him fail, bring on the next guy for the Twins Gambit!  Maybe they will be lucky like Wheeler - Hey good news, you are now on the 40 man roster and we are bringing you to the show.  You know how you have started all your career, but now you will relieve.  Great news.  Oh, now we are going to DFA you and drop you from the 40 man.  Hope you enjoyed your ride.

[108Stitches]

Bring up Rortvedt lol. He will call the curve and yell at him for shaking it off!

I agree with everyone else, if pitch selection is the main issue, FIX IT. Maybe he's throwing less strikes with the curve but it's better than 473 ft bombs.

[Johnsonalexpaul]

I strongly disagree with your opinion. For one it's because he's just not that good, he will never be a 7th or 8th inning guy. I'm so sick of this excuse that he throws hard, it's used because the Twins haven't had a lot of guys who can ramp up to 99, so a lot of people just give him the benefit of the doubt, he throws hard he must be good, look around the MLB, a lot of people throw hard. He throws the fastball straight as an arrow and people crush it. He's always been below average. But wait there's more, he will go down blow that fastball by bad AAA hitters, they will chase his breaking pitches that never hit the strike zone, ever. Twins fans will get over confident in his ability and think he can pitch 8th innings, he will blow more games and the vicious cycle will continue.

[Parker Hageman]

I don't know if this is on Pressly or if batters have  figured out that they can't hit his curveball and just layoff the pitch.  Someone with more skill than I would need to evaluate the data if there is a difference in his in-zone vs. out of zone strike %.

 

 

There's no question that Pressly's curveball has not been thrown in the zone as much as he did last year. In fact, he has thrown a lot more non-competitive (over 18 inches away from the center of the zone) than last season. So it is not surprising to see that opponents have been laying off. Still, when hitters have swung, they have missed at nearly a 75% clip, highest of his career. 

 

 

I don't blame the catcher for the pitch selection. Ultimately, it is up to the pitcher. Front office members, coaches and catchers can do all they can to recommend throwing what pitches and when but if the pitcher does not feel comfortable throwing the pitch, he is not going to throw it. 

 

I sincerely hope the message from the staff to Pressly was for him to throw his curveball a ton in Rochester. Get a feel for throwing it for a strike as well as in early counts. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

This was very poorly written...

 

Thanks for the comment!

[Mike Sixel]

 

This was very poorly written, for one it's because he's just not that good, he will never be a 7th or 8th inning guy. I'm so sick of this excuse that he throws hard, it's used because the Twins haven't had a lot of guys who can ramp up to 99, so a lot of people just give him the benefit of the doubt, he throws hard he must be good, look around the MLB, a lot of people throw hard. He throws the fastball straight as an arrow and people crush it. He's always been below average. But wait there's more, he will go down blow that fastball by bad AAA hitters, they will chase his breaking pitches that never hit the strike zone, ever. Twins fans will get over confident in his ability and think he can pitch 8th innings, he will blow more games and the vicious cycle will continue.

 

Hmmmm.....poorly written, or coming to wrong conclusions? those are 2 very different things....

 

I'm not sure how twins' fans becoming confident has anything to do with what happens in the FO or with the manager, though.

[laloesch]

The one conclusion I'm drawing from this discussion....I really want to see Trevor May pitch again in a Twins uniform as a starter.  Let's all cross our fingers that he experiences a timely recovery and successful rehab.  This young man gets it.  He understands strategy versus blowing guys away with pure speed.  That is the difference (besides a few MPH on his FB) and guys Pressley & Deduno.  Gibson should also take note as well.  You have to have a strategy and approach to keep hitters off balance and eliminate predictability.  Pure stuff will only get you so far. 

Edited June 1, 2017 by laloesch

[Johnsonalexpaul]

Thanks for the comment!

I did not mean poorly written, I just disagree with your opinion. It was poorly worded by me and for that I apologize, Sorry.

[Parker Hageman]

 

I did not mean poorly written, I just disagree with your opinion. It was poorly worded by me and for that I apologize, Sorry.

 

Well, you didn't really disagree or you misinterpreted what my opinion was. The summary of my opinion in the post above -- based on data -- is that Ryan Pressly should throw his curveball, his best pitch more. That's it. Anything you are interpreting beyond that -- such as his role -- is not a part of this analysis. 

 

You are certainly welcomed to disagree with that conclusion but, based on your post, you seem to be agreeing with the fact that his fastball gets obliterated. 

[Doomtints]

A few things:

 

- Before last year, the sample sizes on him were very small. Can't use any numbers before last year to determine his worth. 

- He was also terrible until June of last year.

- Regarding point #1, it may just be that he is only good for 10 innings a month, at most, before things go south.

 

I admit I know nothing about Pressly's pitching arsenal or tendencies, but I will add that if the Twins used him sparingly for 2 years, there was probably a reason. If anything 'happened' it is either that he is a slow starter, is overworked, or has been exposed.

 

We are probably overthinking a guy who was just medial reliever.

Edited June 1, 2017 by Doomtints

[Linus]

He and Gibson look scared on the mound. Their confidence is shot and I get the feeling neither of them trust that they can throw it where they need to.

[KirbyDome89]

So we're blaming the catching now? 

[prouster]

This is one of the better TD articles I've read in a while. Some really bizarre and kind of half baked comments, but the article itself is compelling and presents interesting data.

[Blackjack]

 

So we're blaming the catching now? 

If the hypothesis is that he's not throwing the curve ball enough, yes.  And I would also throw the coaches under the bus. If Parker can see this then professional baseball coaches should be able to see it!!! Plus Pressly should be told 'hey kid, you throw the ball, throw what the catcher tells you to throw, let him do the thinking for you, he has years of experience'.

[jimbo92107]

 

He can't throw the curve for strikes.  Ergo: players cross it off the list.

 

Fastball at 97?  Bring it, the batter says.  And it flies a long way.

This right here. ^^ Sure, Pressly's curve bends a lot, and it's well-nigh unhittable. But if he can't get it in the strike zone, what good is it? 

 

Meanwhile, Tyler Duffey's mind-bending curves zoom and slice through the air just as much, yet at some point in their crazy aerodynamic journey they usually cross the zone of strikeness. Same can be said for curves from Santana, Berrios, Santiago and Mejia. Their curves cross the zone, often just nicking an inside or outside corner, or drifting outside or beneath the zone just before a batter swings. 

 

If the curve is Pressly's best pitch, but he can't throw it for strikes, then Pressly doesn't really have a best pitch, does he? Unless he can learn to dominate with his curve, Pressly maybe doesn't belong in the major leagues. 

[jimbo92107]

 

Really disappointing. There was a stretch recently in which he looked elite.

Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted. This pitching staff is in a full-on, unrecoverable, death spiral. The season is over.

Baseball is a constant process of compensation. Pressly's early dominance depended on batters whiffing on his curve ball...until replays revealed that Pressly's curve usually isn't a strike. Then hitting coaches started telling players to hold up on anything Pressly threw that curved. That's when Pressly started falling behind in counts, which forced him to throw his fast, but relatively straight heater. 

 

There's a couple of things Pressly should work on in AAA. First, he should work on perfecting his stride and release point for his curve and his slider, so he can throw both of them for consistent strikes. Second, he should stop throwing his four seam fastball so much, going instead with two-seamers and cutters. Pressly needs to create lateral movement to get his heater off the sweet spot. Right now hitters are laying off his curve, and barreling up his heater. He can't be a big league pitcher if that keeps happening. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

If the hypothesis is that he's not throwing the curve ball enough, yes.  And I would also throw the coaches under the bus. If Parker can see this then professional baseball coaches should be able to see it!!! Plus Pressly should be told 'hey kid, you throw the ball, throw what the catcher tells you to throw, let him do the thinking for you, he has years of experience'.

So if we're blaming the catchers for Pressly does that mean they're also responsible for Gibson, Hughes, Belisle, ect? 

[spanman2]

Didn't Yogi say '90% of the game is half mental'...perhaps it is something as simple as he is lacking in confidence between the ears or he is thinking too much?  Whatever is going on with him hopefully it is cured soon...this game will eat you alive it you think too much!