Article: Miguel Sano Could Really Make This Work

[Ted Schwerzler]

Through their first 41 games, Miguel Sano has been nothing short of a monster for the Minnesota Twins. He's been every bit the offensive stalwart he was expected to be, and he's taken it to a whole new level. He's been the most impressive player on the club, and in terms of WAR, Fangraphs quantifies him as the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout. The question is, how much of it is a mirage?There are a couple of different scenarios. He's easily defined as a three-true -outcomes (the hits that aren't dependent on defense: strikeout, walk, or home run) player. Sano also is flirting with sustainability when it comes to BABIP (batting average on balls in play) from which home runs are excluded. So, when looking at those two scenarios, the question becomes how much should we believe in his current .319/.439/.638 slash line?

 

In answering that question, we can present the notion that it's both a mirage and sustainable at the same time. When the dust settles in 2017, I think it'd be foolish to expect Miguel Sano to hit above .300. He simply strikes out far too often for that to happen. However, he's not a traditional three-true-outcomes batter.

 

Let's look at what the numbers tell us. 34.5% of the time in 2017, Miguel Sano is striking out. That is the 5th worst percentage in the big leagues, and behind a group that includes Keon Broxton, Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, and Byron Buxton. On the flip side, Sano walks a ridiculous 17.5% of the time, good enough for third best in the big leagues. In generating free passes, he is able to sustain his on base percentage, even before looking at what happens when he makes contact.

 

That contact is where things get interesting. As of May 23, Sano has generated 82 batted ball events, or balls in play. 43 of those have been hit at 98 mph or more. His 98.2 mph average exit velocity leads the big leagues, and is nearly 4 mph above the second place finisher, Yankees Aaron Judge. Breaking down the 43 balls put in play above 98 mph, Sano has generated 32 hits and barreled 20 balls (5th most in MLB). To summarize, and as I wrote on May 1, Miguel Sano is crushing the ball.

 

So, is it a problem that Sano strikes out in nearly one third of his plate appearances? Sure, it's not ideal. Is it likely that the Twins third basemen is going to sustain a .439 BABIP and continue to bat above .300? No, probably not. What is worth noting however, is that the results are a by-product of an approach that has Sano swinging with all he has in virtually every plate appearance.

 

Production for Sano is a result of consistent hard contact. He has generated hard contact 52.4% of the time (first in MLB) while making soft contact just 3.7% of the time (lowest in MLB by nearly 5%). Those numbers suggest that while his BABIP will flatten out (and his average will follow suit) the decline will not nearly be as stark as it would be in a different scenario. Realistically, the decline for Sano will come more from a lack of swing power on his own accord, as opposed to the numbers normalizing from an inflated level.

 

Just two months into the season, it's hard to suggest that Miguel Sano is going to be consistently able to swing as hard in September as he is right now. His legs, torso and upper body will undoubtedly go through wear and tear as the season goes on and it'll be worth monitoring to see if his swing loses oomph because of it. Should things stay consistent though, Miguel Sano is going to consistently experience inflated BABIP numbers, and will remain a non-traditional three-true- outcomes player because of the quality of the balls being put in play.

 

Until Sano is consistently fooled on pitches, or can no longer catch up to heat, he's going to get the upper hand on opposing pitchers every time the ball hits his bat. The results are there to prove that, and while they'll level off some, we aren't watching Adam Dunn (even in his prime) here.

 

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[CampQ]

I wonder if one could use the Statcast data pool (especially as it grows larger) to extrapolate data on outcomes in games played before the pompously named "Statcast Era". For the sake of argument: if, say, right handed hitters have hit eight hundred home runs a distance of 440 feet to left center field since 2008, and we have all the data on exit velocity and launch angle, could we then take that data and assign a likely value for exit velocity and launch angle to a 440 foot home run hit by a right handed hitter in the 1982 season?

 

Prognosticating backwards is silly, I admit. Just a passing thought

[mikelink45]

I believe that he will continue to improve in all facets because he has the attitude to accompany his skills.  I see that at the Oriiz factor, the ability to concentrate and swing hard and not be phased by the external things that can impact a player.  I think we have just witnessed the birth of a star.

[kab21]

The interesting part here will be how pitchers are adjusting to him. He has a 42% strike zone rate (pitches thrown inside) which is lower than average but not anywhere near the top of the list. He also has a 24% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone. What will happen as he sees fewer and fewer strikes? Does he chase more or does he continue to lay off like he has?

 

My prediction - BAPIP comes down a bunch (let's say .360). K rate edges down to the low 30's while the walk rate edges up close to 20%. Part of the basis is that there little protection in the Twins lineup. Many hitters having solid seasons but nothing great. It also requires him to stay disciplined and not try to do too much.

I could see him hit (perhaps optimistic) .260/.390/.560 for the rest of the season

 

This doesn't take into consideration an inevitable slump which typically happens to every player and especially younger players.

[bustedstuff88]

I disagree. Call me stupid but I think we have a special case in Miguel Sano. As another commenter said in a different thread,t here seems to be a chronic belief among specifically MN Twins fans that we just cant have nice things.

 

JUST BELIEVE PEOPLE.

[Riverbrian]

Sano is gonna get pitched around. He needs to keep that discipline. He could use a big bomber hitting behind him. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sano is gonna get pitched around. He needs to keep that discipline. He could use a big bomber hitting behind him. 

 

Kind of hoping Vargas turns into that guy... or Park or Palka for that matter.

[Linus]

The Os pitched him up in the zone and he struggled. I think he's going to see a steady diet of that until he adjusts.

[Old Twins Cap]

Sano is a monster.  But, there are games, and you can see it from CF, when he just cannot hit the outside curve/slider.  For whatever reason.

 

What goes up, must come down.

 

We hope he continues to make adjustments.

[h2oface]

Great article!