Article: Trust The Process And The Stats

[ThejacKmp]

Vargas' career OPS is .751. The BEST season Mauer has had since the start of Vargas' MLB career is .752. I'm too lazy to do the math to figure it out exactly, but overall since the start of 2014 it's lower than .751. So, please explain how that statement is incorrect. Perhaps you should check the numbers.

Over the past four years Vargas has had the equivalent of one full season. Not a tiny sample but it's pretty misleading to say "over the past four seasons." I think it's rather telling that on a team with a need for power, a switch hitting power hitter has had a hard time sniffing the field. He has some hot streaks that buoy his stats but he's pretty streaky and undependable. And it's not like it was hard to get PT - the Twins have had an open spot at DH (last year 13 guys were DH for a game and no one had more than 36 games) that Vargas has never seized and made his own.

 

Mauer has had 1100 more at bats. Mauer has also been recovering from concussions throughout the first part of that period and is now being used more appropriately as a 120 games, mostly against RHP guy. I'd still take Mauer over Vargas this year. I hope I'm wrong, it will likely mean Vargas is having an explosive year.

 

And again, this thing started with a discussion of Mauer's place among best Twins hitters of all time. You ignored my response to that and turned it into a discussion of RBI. When I explained why RBIs were useless you ignored that and moved it to Vargas being better than Mauer right now. I think you're more interested in moving the goal line when it behooves you than in having a real discussion about anything.

 

Unless you want to actually talk about some of the things I've mentioned previously, I'm likely respectfully done responding because this discussion isn't really very fun and you're more of a fencer ("scoring" points) than a debator (cohesive presenter of a reasoned argument). One tip would be to not just bold one phrase in a lengthy response and jump on that - deal with the whole concept or at least acknowledge the parts you agree with before zooming in on something you wish to discuss further.

 

I wish you a pleasant Wednesday.

[USAFChief]

It's an overstatement. RBI are extremely valuable. RBI are also an extremely poor evaluation tool.

 

Guys who hit lots of home runs collect lots of RBI. It's that simple.

 

Mauer walks an incredible amount in RBI situations, which further deteriorates his number. The best outcome of an RBI situation is to get that RBI. The second best outcome is to get on base.

 

In that regard, yeah, I guess Mauer isn't the greatest outcome player, he's simply the second-greatest outcome player.

If RBI are extremely valuable, why would they be an extremely poor evaluation tool?

[Cap'n Piranha]

If RBI are extremely valuable, why would they be an extremely poor evaluation tool?

Because they're very situation dependent. A triple is better than a single, but judging by RBI, a single with the bases loaded that scores two is better than a triple, or for that matter, a homer, that comes with the bases empty.

 

RBI's should be used, but should be used in conjunction with some sort of rate stat that details how often a player gets to bat with runners on.

[jharaldson]

 

That was true. As Berardino pointed out, there were several indicators that Mauer’s process was solid. For instance, he was putting the ball in play, a lot. He wasn’t striking out much at all. When he did make contact, he was hitting a very high percentage of line drives. 

 

......

However, Mauer trusted the process. He likely made a few adjustments. For instance, his walk rate has returned to where it has been in his career. He’s seeing more pitches again, which has always been a good thing for him.

 

......

He has continued to hit a lot of line drives.
 

 

I am questioning some of the statements here:

 

1. Line Drives - Joe Mauer's current LD% is 23.5%, lower than his career average and his lowest since the bilateral leg weakness 2011 season.  I don't see why you or Beradino are pointing to this as a strength.

 

2. Walk Rate - Joe Mauer's current BB% is 9.1%, lower than his career average of 12% and his lowest since his rookie season of 2004.  This is another drain on his OBP.

 

I would also add some stats that make me this that this .700 - .750 OPS is his high water point.

 

1. FB% - Mauer currently has his highest FB% since his rookie year.  In addition, his HR/FB% is the lowest of his career and at half his career average.  This tells me he has lost a good chunk of his already low power skill and that these fly balls will turn into outs with the next point.

 

2. Pull% - Mauer currently has his lowest Pull% of his career.  This tells me that the shifts that have been put on him will continue to be effective.

 

3.  BABIP - Mauer current has a .294 BABIP, close to his .301 and .309 of the past couple of years.  I think that is his current skill level and don't expect much more.

 

In addition to these points, I think we need to stop comparing 2017 Joe to 2007 Joe and we need to starting comparing him to his peers, other MLB 1B.  He is 25th out of 27 1B in OPS:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

 

His .705 OPS is significantly below the league average for 1B of .818.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Joe Mauer 2017 is a bad 1B.  I hope he gets better and become closer to average or below average so as not to be a drain on the team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If RBI are extremely valuable, why would they be an extremely poor evaluation tool?

Because there's not a strong correlation between player performance and RBI but there is a strong correlation between team RBI and win-loss record.

 

And RBI is largely a team stat, not an individual stat. The exception is the solo home run.

[jmlease1]

 

Because they're very situation dependent. A triple is better than a single, but judging by RBI, a single with the bases loaded that scores two is better than a triple, or for that matter, a homer, that comes with the bases empty.

RBI's should be used, but should be used in conjunction with some sort of rate stat that details how often a player gets to bat with runners on.

This. Without the context assigned with it, RBI totals don't really tell you much about the hitter.

 

Mauer's greatest skill as a hitter has been in avoiding outs. During his prime, he was a guy who got a lot of hits and plenty of walks, making him a perfect guy to hit ahead of hitters with power. Having Mauer hit ahead of Morneau, Cuddyer, and Hunter was ideal.

 

The RBI crowd seems to get offended when Mauer takes a walk with runners on base, especially late in the game with the Twins behind. I've actually heard anti-sabermetrics "experts" insist that a "real star" would expand their strike zone and take less pitches. Seems to me to be a counter-productive and fundamentally selfish tactic...and the stats prove it out.

 

I'm glad to see Mauer getting the results in May his April performance should have seen. Luck usually evens out and Mauer's approach is sound. Walks and hard-hit balls have been playing very well for this Twins team and if Mauer can avoid prolonged slumps this season he'll be a real asset. Is he ever going to be "worth" $23M again? doubtful at 1B, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value and his contract isn't what's been holding this team back the last few years.

 

It's also really nice to see how good his D has gotten. He's gone from just another guy to someone adding real value and directing traffic while making tough plays out there. His consistent play receiving the ball has to be helping Sano and Polanco in the field.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This. Without the context assigned with it, RBI totals don't really tell you much about the hitter.

 

Mauer's greatest skill as a hitter has been in avoiding outs. During his prime, he was a guy who got a lot of hits and plenty of walks, making him a perfect guy to hit ahead of hitters with power. Having Mauer hit ahead of Morneau, Cuddyer, and Hunter was ideal.

 

The RBI crowd seems to get offended when Mauer takes a walk with runners on base, especially late in the game with the Twins behind. I've actually heard anti-sabermetrics "experts" insist that a "real star" would expand their strike zone and take less pitches. Seems to me to be a counter-productive and fundamentally selfish tactic...and the stats prove it out.

 

I'm glad to see Mauer getting the results in May his April performance should have seen. Luck usually evens out and Mauer's approach is sound. Walks and hard-hit balls have been playing very well for this Twins team and if Mauer can avoid prolonged slumps this season he'll be a real asset. Is he ever going to be "worth" $23M again? doubtful at 1B, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value and his contract isn't what's been holding this team back the last few years.

 

It's also really nice to see how good his D has gotten. He's gone from just another guy to someone adding real value and directing traffic while making tough plays out there. His consistent play receiving the ball has to be helping Sano and Polanco in the field.

 

In fairness, the bigger issue according to many on this site isn't expanding the zone, it is taking a FB down the middle of the zone on 2-0 counts with men in scoring position. That seems to be the issue most here have with him.

 

He's not good compared to other 1B, that's a real issue for the competitiveness of this team. 

[USAFChief]

In fairness, the bigger issue according to many on this site isn't expanding the zone, it is taking a FB down the middle of the zone on 2-0 counts with men in scoring position. That seems to be the issue most here have with him.

 

He's not good compared to other 1B, that's a real issue for the competitiveness of this team.

 

Yup.

[USAFChief]

This. Without the context assigned with it, RBI totals don't really tell you much about the hitter.

 

Mauer's greatest skill as a hitter has been in avoiding outs. During his prime, he was a guy who got a lot of hits and plenty of walks, making him a perfect guy to hit ahead of hitters with power. Having Mauer hit ahead of Morneau, Cuddyer, and Hunter was ideal.

 

The RBI crowd seems to get offended when Mauer takes a walk with runners on base, especially late in the game with the Twins behind. I've actually heard anti-sabermetrics "experts" insist that a "real star" would expand their strike zone and take less pitches. Seems to me to be a counter-productive and fundamentally selfish tactic...and the stats prove it out.

 

I'm glad to see Mauer getting the results in May his April performance should have seen. Luck usually evens out and Mauer's approach is sound. Walks and hard-hit balls have been playing very well for this Twins team and if Mauer can avoid prolonged slumps this season he'll be a real asset. Is he ever going to be "worth" $23M again? doubtful at 1B, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value and his contract isn't what's been holding this team back the last few years.

 

It's also really nice to see how good his D has gotten. He's gone from just another guy to someone adding real value and directing traffic while making tough plays out there. His consistent play receiving the ball has to be helping Sano and Polanco in the field.

And the anti-RBI crowd seems to think the object of the game is to avoid outs.

 

That's not how they determine the winner at the end of the game.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And the anti-RBI crowd seems to think the object of the game is to avoid outs.

That's not how they determine the winner at the end of the game.

 

No one is anti RBI, people are anti using RBI as one of the best ways to say if a hitter is good or not, since they are very situational. A routine fly ball to the OF can be an RBI, or not, but it was still an out that the player had little control over.

[USAFChief]

No one is anti RBI, people are anti using RBI as one of the best ways to say if a hitter is good or not, since they are very situational. A routine fly ball to the OF can be an RBI, or not, but it was still an out that the player had little control over.

Well, the post I responded to used "RBI crowd," so...

 

While we're on the subject, a walk may or may not lead to a run, too, but I don't see the OBP crowd saying walks are situational. Mauer's (former) on base percentage is cited as indisputable proof of his value.

 

I also disagree that hitting a fly ball that results in a run is something a player has little control over.

[ashbury]

And the anti-RBI crowd seems to think the object of the game is to avoid outs.

Most of them probably think studies exist showing that avoiding outs is one of the most highly correlated stats to scoring runs.

[jimmer]

 

Most of them probably think studies exist showing that avoiding outs is one of the most highly correlated stats to scoring runs.

Crazy people...

 

Again, as said before and many times, most people aren't against RBI nor are they Anti-RBI. They think it's a horrible way to evaluate players' abilities.  That doesn't make them anti-RBI, that just means they understand that there are MANY factors out of the batter's control that contributes to a player getting RBI.

Edited May 24, 2017 by jimmer

[drivlikejehu]

The object of the offense is to avoid outs. The object of the pitching staff/defense is to get outs. 

 

The only way to avoid outs effectively is to be a good hitter. There are different kinds of hitters, which results in an uneven distribution of various events (runs scored, RBI, etc.). Those are accounting items that have basically no relevance to player valuation. 

 

A lineup with 9 players that walked every plate appearance would of course score an infinite number of runs and each batter would have an infinite number of RBIs. Similarly, a lineup in which every batter always homered would have an infinite number of runs and RBIs. 

 

Of course, a home run is more valuable than a walk - but the reason for this is still avoiding outs. If a batter walks, subsequent batters may get out and the runner would be stranded. A home run, by contrast, removes that possibility.

 

Power therefore is of obvious value, which of course is reflected by wOBA, RC+, etc. 

[baumannmd]

Mauer is derided for three reasons that are mostly ou of his control. Injuries, position, and personality.

 

If not for injuries, Mauer and Morneau would probably be popularly regarded as two of the best Twins of all time. Bad luck and too many hits to the head make them two of the Twins greatest tragedies along with Puckett.

 

His position really hurts him. He doesn't have the power for first. But at catcher, he would still be among the most valued at his position in the league.

 

I don't know how Mauer operates in the clubhouse and in the dugout, but fans see a low key guy who takes his knocks in stride and doesn't get too worked up and assume that means he doesn't care or isn't a leader.

 

The contract stuff complaints are complete nonsense. Anyone offered $137M would break their arm signing that contract as fast as possible. I completely agree that Mauer isn't earning $23M with his play on the field, but I didn't hear too many complaints about his contract in 2007-2009 or when Target Field was built.

 

I'm a couple years older than Mauer, so I just can't idolize him, but I have four kids who will grow up hearing stories about Mauer the way my dad talked to me about Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew.

[spanman2]

Well said. I wonder if a lot of the angst about Mauer arises from his $23 million annual salary, perhaps augmented by the perception that ownership  isn't willing to spend enough money to feel the truly competitive team and Mauer's taking up too much of the available salary. I think we just all need to get over ourselves.. Mauer was worth that kind of money at the time he signed his contract. multiyear contracts in Baseball all work pretty much same; you agree up  front to high salaries for a number of years  hoping that you will get that kind of value in half to two thirds of those years, and knowing that you will be overpaying towards the end of the contract as the player ages.  That's basically the deal. Every team would love not to have to have contracts longer than two or three years but then you can't get the best players because they demand and receive longer term contracts. If we want to be in the big leagues, we have to play the big league financial game and this is part of that game. As far as ownership being too cheapand potentially using Mauer's salary as a reason to not spend big money on anyone else, that's on ownership not on Mauer.

 

I say that once a contract is signed we should all just forget about how much anyone is being paid and judge them on their performance. Mauer is playing well enough to start and play at least 75 to 80% of the Twins games. Is he playing at a $23 million a year level? Not even close, but who cares? Let's just enjoy the guy for who he is, one of the best players to ever don a Twins uniform and probably the best local player in Twins history (although I'm sure someone will correct me on that last point).

 

The only thing I wish is that the business I'm in paid the way ballplayers get paid. Oh well, they do something none of us can do.. Actually, I live in LA and I wish I got paid the way movie stars get paid.

 

 

It has everything to do with the $23/year he is making.  Had the Twins let him walk can you imagine the bleeping you know what fans would have done?  They paid him what the market dictated at the time.  He was going to get PAID big time either here or somewhere else.  You can argue to a certain extent they have been careful with their payroll since Joe signed that deal but you cant argue they didn't commit to a player who at the time was the best hitting catcher in the game.  Time catches up to all of us eventually.  Joe has had some years I am certain he thought were below par for a player of his caliber.  Would it make people feel better if here making say $15/year and had times were he struggled compared to where he used to be?