Article: Phil Hughes Embracing New Style

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season was anything but glorious for the Minnesota Twins' Phil Hughes. He broke a bone on a comebacker, and ultimately watched his season end after just 59 innings. While shelved, he had a rib removed (undergoing thoracic outlet surgery) and the 2016 campaign turned into a giant recovery stint. Fast forward a year and the Twins hurler is learning to embrace his new realityHughes has never been a burner. Even at his best with the Twins in 2014, he threw his fastball just an average of 92 mph. What he always has been in Minnesota however, is a guy who issues very few free passes, and watches his strikeouts play off that notion. After setting an all-time major league record in K/BB rate during the 2014 season, Hughes has watched his effectiveness slip. Regardless of whether or not the injuries mounted last year, it's fair to wonder if he wouldn't have needed to adapt anyway.

 

This season though, it's been all about adaptation for Hughes. Working as the Twins number four starter out of the gate, he had some pressure lifted with how good both Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago have been. Despite an ugly start against the Indians, it's hard to argue that Hughes has been anything but acceptable.

 

Through his first six turns in the rotation, Hughes owns a 4.32 ERA that's backed by a 4.35 FIP (his best mark since 2014). His 5.7 K/9 is also the best total since 2014, and he's issuing fewer free passes at just 1.6 BB/9. Home runs continue to be a bugaboo for him, but that's virtually always been the case, and something you almost have to accept at this point.

 

What is most interesting about Hughes this season is how he is going about getting results. Both his changeup and knuckle curve have seen a slight dip in velocity, but he's utilizing them quite often. Thus far, Hughes has thrown fastballs only 22.5% of the time (per Fangraphs) while pushing knuckle curves across one-fifth of the time (20.6%) and using changeups 18.8% of the time.

 

In breaking down his offerings, it's the changeup number that jumps off the page. At 18.8%, Hughes is more than tripling the frequency of his change, from a career rate of 4.9%. Given the roughly 10 mph dip from his fastball, it keeps hitters out front of and off his pitches. It also shouldn't go unsaid that pitching coach Neil Allen is a noted chanegup guru, and that has likely played a significant role here.

 

Hughes is allowing a higher hard hit rate (43.6% in 2017 up from 37.7% and 31.2% the past two years), but he's giving up fewer line drives and his 9.3% HR/FB ratio is actually the lowest it's been since bottoming out at 6.2% in 2014. He's forcing hitters to stay off his fastball, and deal with the offspeed stuff which in turn has shifted the thinking about what type of pitcher he is.

 

The level of confidence and trust in both the knuckle curve and changeup also flesh out very high in counts when he's ahead. When batters are facing 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2 counts, they are seeing nearly a 50% mix of chanegups and knuckle curves. But when Hughes finds himself down in the count, he's still going with that same mix, throwing changeups and knuckle curves 47.2% of the time.

 

Whether a by-product of the surgery, or a simple adjustment to style, Hughes has transformed himself from a two-seam/cutter guy into a changeup/knuckle curve thrower. He's finessing players out, and relies on balls being hit in the air, as the Twins now employ one of the best outfield defenses in all of baseball.

 

It should be noted that Father Time is undefeated and that regardless of the number of procedures a body undergoes, a level of adaptation is required. When a veteran continues to roll towards the latter half of their career, there will be a point that a renaissance is needed. Whether by changing one's philosophy or finding something else that works, a new level of effectiveness can be achieved. It appears Phil Hughes has embraced this head on and right now is reaping the rewards.

 

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[Monkeypaws]

He is worthy. Wish the Twins had just sat on the original contract, but he has fully become a pitcher. If he ever gets his stuff back, wow! If not, future pitching coach.

[adorduan]

I just feel like the wheels could come off at any moment. A 4.35 FIP is nothing to throw a parade for. I guess when the bar is set so low, it's hard not to to exceed it...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I just feel like the wheels could come off at any moment. A 4.35 FIP is nothing to throw a parade for. I guess when the bar is set so low, it's hard not to to exceed it...

His hard hit rate is highest of his career as well, which adds some support to your gut

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

 

Only so many of those hard hit balls will be catchable by Buxton

Edited May 12, 2017 by Sconnie

[MN_ExPat]

Glad to see him bounce back.  I'll take effective over pretty anyday.

[Jham]

I think his metamorphosis began a couple years ago. In 2015 he came back from the dl in an important series against the astros and outdueled Dallas kuechel. He had no velocity but gutted his way through. He's gong to have to continue to develop his change up. And his days as a top rotation guy are over, but he isn't expected to be either.

[jimmer]

Hughes turns 31 next month and his days as a top rotation guy was a total of one season.  Mix in a couple #3 type seasons and the rest carp.

Edited May 12, 2017 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

 

His hard hit rate is highest of his career as well, which adds some support to your gut


http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

Only so many of those hard hit balls will be catchable by Buxton

Have we decided that pitchers DO have influence over balls in play now?

 

sheesh, I can't keep up.

[Jham]

Have we decided that pitchers DO have influence over balls in play now?

 

sheesh, I can't keep up.

That's what bothered me about the initial sabremetric analysts. They regress a bunch of variables draw correlations, and then suggest causation. The cardinal rule of stats is that correlation doesn't equal causation. Wins are arbitrary, but wins above replacement is measured in.... ERA is an outdated stat, but FIP and xFIP are trying to predict ERA?? We add obp and slugging together like they carry identical value for no particular reason. Pitchers couldn't control contact, but now that they can measure it, they suddenly can. Clutch exists in science and basically everywhere else but the baseball diamond... until they find the right way to measure it. The idea of using science to suggest that things that haven't yet been discovered as proof that those things do not exist is both ironic and annoying. Especially given the snark Bill James and others initially had. That said, the new stats are improving and do make the game easier and more fun to follow.

[HitInAPinch]

 

His hard hit rate is highest of his career as well, which adds some support to your gut


http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

Only so many of those hard hit balls will be catchable by Buxton

Embrace the gut!  I say it's time to send Hughes to the bullpen to get straightened out and, now that Berrios has been called up, call up Mejia too.  Seasons change.  And this one is headed towards the AllStar break!   LOL

[DocBauer]

For the most part, I like what we've seen from Hughes. Very disappointing last night that he looked good for the first 3 innings against the White Sox before seeming to lose it.

 

He's looked shaky at times, but battled out of most tight situations effectively. There is room for him in the rotation as a "solid" piece. There are comments about him not being able to face teams a second time with his new approach. That may prove true. But then again, what if his new approach becomes that more refined as the season goes along and he even gains a tick on his FB?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Hughes can pitch like an acceptable #5 starter at 90mph, color me thrilled.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Have we decided that pitchers DO have influence over balls in play now?

 

sheesh, I can't keep up.

 

Wait, as we use more and more math, we get smarter over time? Who knew?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Hughes can pitch like an acceptable #5 starter at 90mph, color me thrilled.

 

Not sure that's what I'd call last night.....here's hoping it gets better. I liked the original signing a lot, just the kind of guy you take a chance on.....and he seems like a good guy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing I'm curious about is whether or not his arm will get stronger over time.  He was hurt in 2015 and didn't pitch hardly at all in 2016.  Could be something where you see that velocity improve a bit as the season goes on.

[kab21]

 

Embrace the gut!  I say it's time to send Hughes to the bullpen to get straightened out and, now that Berrios has been called up, call up Mejia too.  Seasons change.  And this one is headed towards the AllStar break!   LOL

What is a Plan C if one of Mejia, Berrios or Tepesch fail or any of the starters get injured? Until Hughes implodes he will have a spot in the rotation because there aren't other alternatives available. Mejia is pretty much the only (halfway talented) option the Twins have unless the Twins have Jorge or Romero skip AAA (with only 2-3 months in AA).

 

One thing I'm curious about is whether or not his arm will get stronger over time.  He was hurt in 2015 and didn't pitch hardly at all in 2016.  Could be something where you see that velocity improve a bit as the season goes on.

This is what I am wondering. Does he get stronger as the season progresses? Possible

 

[Brandon]

I'll be honest. I loved both of Hughes contracts at the time they were signed. If Hughes pitches 180 to 190 innings of 4.00 to 4.5 era he is worth the 13 million he is being paid. Which is why i liked the second extention. There was room for him to regress and provide value on his contract.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Have we decided that pitchers DO have influence over balls in play now?

 

sheesh, I can't keep up.

 

We get to be extremely confident we're right until we're wrong.  Then we get to go back to being extremely confident again.

 

Analytics!

 

(Relax boys, there is a kernel of truth in it but relax nonetheless.  No one is impugning your analytics, just mocking your use a bit)

[Brock Beauchamp]

We get to be extremely confident we're right until we're wrong. Then we get to go back to being extremely confident again.

 

Analytics!

 

(Relax boys, there is a kernel of truth in it but relax nonetheless. No one is impugning your analytics, just mocking your use a bit)

We're all guilty of it to some extent and if you can't laugh at your own mistakes, life isn't much fun.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We're all guilty of it to some extent and if you can't laugh at your own mistakes, life isn't much fun.

 

Yup, I like analytics, but sometimes the zeal makes me wonder if I've just missed passing by the Church of WAR or something.

 

But I'm guessing they'd settle on a less problematic name....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Have we decided that pitchers DO have influence over balls in play now?

 

sheesh, I can't keep up.

i don't know how much influence Hughes has, as much as I can guess that over the course of a season hard hit balls are caught less frequently than soft hit balls. His ERA must correlate at some point, right?

 

I realize that I'm trying to do some loosey-goosey predictive assumptions but it seems to make sense in my head.

 

Otherwise, if ERA is entirely in the pitchers control, what is the point of FIP?

Edited May 13, 2017 by Sconnie

[jimbo92107]

 

If Hughes can pitch like an acceptable #5 starter at 90mph, color me thrilled.

The question is, will other teams school off how the White Sox beat up on Hughes, or was that just a bad outing for Hughes? I didn't see that game, but I've been impressed by how Hughes has moved to a different mix of pitches. He still has good command of the strike zone, but his heater has cooled off to mostly upper 80's, with an occasional 90 or 91mph. It helps that his ground ball rate is up, probably due to more sinking change ups and curves.