Article: Extend Miggy

[Steve Lein]

This seems like a deal more structured for someone like Kepler. I think Sano's going to require significantly more to get him to bite. At least double of what is proposed in the article and I think Brandon is a lot closer to the realistic number.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Let's just ask him to be honest and say what he would want in return for playing his whole career for the Twins. If he wants $200 million dollars, I say we give it to him. If he wants to just make up a number, say, tenjeven bagillion dollars, I say we find a way to make it work. If he wants a solid gold house and a rocket car, let's make it happen. 

[drjim]

 

New front office, same owner. Is it likely the Pohlads suddenly open the pocket book after sewing it shut when they fired Bill Smith?

 

They spent $7mil more on (40 man) contracts last year than they did in Smith's last year.

 

The myth that won't quit.

[drjim]

 

This seems like a deal more structured for someone like Kepler. I think Sano's going to require significantly more to get him to bite. At least double of what is proposed in the article and I think Brandon is a lot closer to the realistic number.

 

Kepler and Polanco are the types that are most likely to agree to the early extensions.

 

The elite guys are the ones you need to open the pocketbook for.

[Steve Lein]

 

Kepler and Polanco are the types that are most likely to agree to the early extensions.

 

The elite guys are the ones you need to open the pocketbook for.

 

Exactly...

[Jerr]

 

Let's just ask him to be honest and say what he would want in return for playing his whole career for the Twins. If he wants $200 million dollars, I say we give it to him. If he wants to just make up a number, say, tenjeven bagillion dollars, I say we find a way to make it work. If he wants a solid gold house and a rocket car, let's make it happen. 

                                                         

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-possible-extinction-of-the-early-career-superstar-extension/

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's just ask him to be honest and say what he would want in return for playing his whole career for the Twins. If he wants $200 million dollars, I say we give it to him. If he wants to just make up a number, say, tenjeven bagillion dollars, I say we find a way to make it work. If he wants a solid gold house and a rocket car, let's make it happen. 

 

Usually those kind of deals only go to veterans later in their careers:

 

[NE Gopher]

Who other than Sano can the Twins reasonably build around?

 

Pay the man.

[kab21]

 

Usually those kind of deals only go to veterans later in their careers:

 

 

Like Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Trout?

 

Sano has a chance to be Stanton and he signed for 325M (with opt out) and bought out FA years for 25M/yr. You can't expect Sano to sign a year or two earlier than Stanton did for 35M guaranteed when there is a chance that a 200-300+M extension could happen in a year or two.

Either the Twins back up one truck right now or they back up 2-3 trucks in two years if they want to keep him. And he might not be open to signing an extension at any price. 

[Trevor0333]

8 years 100 million with the 8th year being a mutual option seems much more logical to me.

 

Sano will want to hit the market again in his 29-30 year age for a final massive contract.

 

I do think Kepler would be a good candidate for a cost savings for security deal.

[markos]

 

They spent $7mil more on (40 man) contracts last year than they did in Smith's last year.

 

The myth that won't quit.

Yet MLB revenue and payroll has been skyrocketing during that time. I bet if you ranked that $7M increase over the past five years against the rest of the league, the Twins are probably in the bottom-5. Here are some payroll increases between 2011 and 2016 for mid-to-small market teams that should be comparable to the Twins:

STL +$40M
COL +$20M
KC  +$100M
Bal +$60M
Sea +$55M
Pit +$50M
Cle +$40M
SD  +$50M
Oak +$15M
TB  +$20M

[drjim]

Like Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Trout?

 

Sano has a chance to be Stanton and he signed for 325M (with opt out) and bought out FA years for 25M/yr. You can't expect Sano to sign a year or two earlier than Stanton did for 35M guaranteed when there is a chance that a 200-300+M extension could happen in a year or two.

 

Either the Twins back up one truck right now or they back up 2-3 trucks in two years if they want to keep him. And he might not be open to signing an extension at any price.

It is definitely this offseason or not happening.

 

Once Machado and Harper break the bank in 18-19 there's no incentive for any elite player to sign an extension.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

The phone call isn't even getting answered if there isn't 100M guaranteed and the last arb year and FA years aren't being bought out for 20-25M/yr.

Yelich and Piscotty are your comparables? Yelich signed his deal after a 9HR, .764 OPS and 4.4 WAR season. Piscotty signed his deal after a 22HR, .800 OPS and 2.8 WAR season.

 

A closer comparable to Sano is Bryce Harper (prior to 2015) who has basically said 'no, thanks' to any deals. Whether or not he is actually that good doesn't matter but he is more in that realm of player when money starts getting talked about.

 

Compare those WARs to Miggy. How has power done on the free agent market? Harper and Sano are NOT close comparisons.

[drjim]

They might be able to get an 8 year deal, with free agency when he's 30.

 

Digger a little deeper, it will be a minimum of $25 mil for the FA years, and I think we are light on the arb years.

 

Maybe 2-5-13-16-27-27-27-27

 

8, $144mil.

 

He might not even take it.

[Respy]

My two cents:

 

1. I think Sano has always valued himself as more than what he currently is.  When he first joined the big leagues, he said he was ready to hit 30-35+ homeruns.  After his first season, he said he was ready to start hitting 40-45+ homeruns.  That kind of ego is going to be looking for way more than $15M at the last season of the contract.  He probably thinks he's already all-star caliber worth $15M and soon will be MVP-caliber worth $20-$25M+.  
2. Sano seems to me to be the type of player who is always going to need a kick in the butt.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him lazy, but I think having pending arbitration contracts and eventually a looming Free Agent payday will make him play way, way better.  

[drjim]

Also, wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to add something like 5-165 as a player option on the backend.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Like Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Trout?

 

Sano has a chance to be Stanton and he signed for 325M (with opt out) and bought out FA years for 25M/yr. You can't expect Sano to sign a year or two earlier than Stanton did for 35M guaranteed when there is a chance that a 200-300+M extension could happen in a year or two.

Either the Twins back up one truck right now or they back up 2-3 trucks in two years if they want to keep him. And he might not be open to signing an extension at any price. 

 

Stanton's contract is a great comp. 

 

The six years of his his deal compared to the six years of Miggy's: $37.517 million.

 

I'm totally cool with backing that up with deals in the $20-$25 range... for as many years as he want. But the selling point for him is that he's still a free agent at 30. (Just like Stanton can opt out of his deal at 30.)

 

Those later years are what inflates the contracts. Not years 1-6.

[kab21]

 

Compare those WARs to Miggy. How has power done on the free agent market? Harper and Sano are NOT close comparisons.

Harper (and actually Stanton is closer or MCab) are far closer comparables to Sano than Piscotty and Yelich. WAR is meaningless in this comparison.

 

Sano has a chance to be an elite power hitter and he knows this. Piscotty and Yelich are nice players and closer to Polanco or Kepler as mentioned.

[drjim]

6-35 with some options is probably a good deal for Kepler and Polanco this offseason.

[Bill Brown69]

 

Yet MLB revenue and payroll has been skyrocketing during that time. I bet if you ranked that $7M increase over the past five years against the rest of the league, the Twins are probably in the bottom-5. Here are some payroll increases between 2011 and 2016 for mid-to-small market teams that should be comparable to the Twins:

STL +$40M
COL +$20M
KC  +$100M
Bal +$60M
Sea +$55M
Pit +$50M
Cle +$40M
SD  +$50M
Oak +$15M
TB  +$20M

 

Like I said, I don't care anything about the lack of payroll up till now or soon, but KEEP SOME OF THESE GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Pick who you like, earn your salary and pay them to spend 10 years with the Twins!!!!!!!!!!!!

[drjim]

Yet MLB revenue and payroll has been skyrocketing during that time. I bet if you ranked that $7M increase over the past five years against the rest of the league, the Twins are probably in the bottom-5. Here are some payroll increases between 2011 and 2016 for mid-to-small market teams that should be comparable to the Twins:

STL +$40M

COL +$20M

KC +$100M

Bal +$60M

Sea +$55M

Pit +$50M

Cle +$40M

SD +$50M

Oak +$15M

TB +$20M

Some go up, some stay even, some go down, depending on competitive cycles.

 

I don't think payroll is the issue, it was incompetent front office work. I'll always argue that line of thinking gets Ryan off the hook.

 

If the Twins were good and filling Target Field and needed to pay some players, they would.

[drjim]

Or better yet, if they actually had players worth paying.

 

They were so desperate they couldn't stop handing out terrible extensions.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Harper (and actually Stanton is closer or MCab) are far closer comparables to Sano than Piscotty and Yelich. WAR is meaningless in this comparison.

 

Sano has a chance to be an elite power hitter and he knows this. Piscotty and Yelich are nice players and closer to Polanco or Kepler as mentioned.

 

You used WAR to compare the players. But now it's meaningless? I just asked you to include Sano's (which was 0.8 last year but already better this year).

 

I think everybody is undervaluing Yelich and the deal he signed was ultra team-friendly.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

So what I'm hearing is more something like this:

 

2018: $2 million
2019: $6 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $9 million
2021: $12 million
2022: $18 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $21 million or $3 million buyout

2024: $24 million or $3 million buyout

 

Max deal: Seven years, $92 million.

 

If $100m is the magic number it could be...

 

Signing bonus: $2 million

2018: $2 million
2019: $6.5 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $10 million
2021: $13.5 million
2022: $19 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $22 million or $3 million buyout
2024: $25 million or $3 million buyout

 

Again, adding a few more years on is great from a team perspective... but one of the perks of a player signing a deal is letting him free agency before he's well past his prime.

 

You could do this:

 

2018: $2 million
2019: $6.5 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $10 million
2021: $13.5 million
2022: $19 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $22 million or $3 million buyout
2024: $25 million or $3 million buyout

2025: $30 million (Sano can opt out after 2025 season)

2026: $35 million 

2027: $40 million (mutual option)

2028: $40 million (mutual option)

 

$245m over 11 years.

[70charger]

Maybe neither here nor there, but the Harper free agent contract is coming up in 2018. I think a lot of agents are going to wait for him to set the market so they can point to extension offers like this and say "Pssh, the Yankees gave Bryce Harper half a billion dollars, and you expect me to happy with $200 million!?"

[mikelink45]

I am glad all of you can participate in this conversation.  As an old guy still guiding hiking trips in my 70s and trying to pay for my daily expenses I watch and read about baseball until the adding machine comes out.  When players are making more than I make in a lifetime - average players - how can I relate?  Here are the salary milestones: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/firsts/first9.shtml

 

None of it makes sense to me.  After all I bought gas from Bronko Nagurski - arguably the greatest football player of all time (my choice) from his standard oil station in International Falls.  

I hope the Twins do all they can afford to do to keep Sano and Buxton and Kepler.  I hope we get a winner again and I hope that with all this funny money circulating people will quit obsessing over Mauer's contract.  But what do I know, I still like batting averages and win-loss records.

http://onthelake.net/connections/nagurski.htm

[Mike Sixel]

No one can relate to these numbers, but it's better it goes to them than to the owners. IMO.

[kab21]

 

You used WAR to compare the players. But now it's meaningless? I just asked you to include Sano's (which was 0.8 last year but already better this year).

 

I think everybody is undervaluing Yelich and the deal he signed was ultra team-friendly.

WAR is meaningless in the sense (for Sano) because it isn't a predictive stat. Sano putting up a 3.3 WAR in his first 216 games is not the reason that this thread was started. This thread was started because many are convinced that Sano is a future star and want to make sure he can't immediately leave in FA.

 

That is what makes Piscotty and Yelich (fine players) non-comparables and Harper a comparable. People aren't talking about Harper breaking FA records because he has one season over 5 WAR in his career. They are betting that he will be in the 6-10 WAR range for most of the next decade. Piscotty and Yelich might break 6 WAR once or twice in their careers.

I could see your middle (100M) offer being considered except that there would be no buyouts. 100M fully guaranteed.

The other issue is that his agent could say no to buying out any FA years (like Boras typically does) or offering one year and then go to FA.

[tobi0040]

Interesting to note that Tom Verducci reported the Cubs tried locking up Bryant and "got nowhere" this off-season.

 

The tough part about position players is they don't get injured much. So a guy like Sano could have a .750 OPS and still command $25-30 million or more in his three arbitration years. Probably closer to $30-40 if he keeps producing. So he is going to be financially secure barring a pretty rare fall off a cliff or career ending injury.

 

If the Twins do forecast a $400 plus million dollar deal for Harper and a $300 million dollar deal for Machado, we would need to do it first. The only real incentive to get Sano to the table would be up front money, large FA dollars for a few years but allow him to hit FA around 30 so he can participate in a potential frenzy.