Article: Extend Miggy

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Now that we’ve got to see Miguel Sano play third base for the better part of a month, it’s probably fair to say that he’s going to man the hot corner for the foreseeable future (or at least until Mauer moves on). The pop-ups that plagued him last year haven’t been an issue (yet) and the barehanded plays that he seems to make on a consistent basis are starting to prove the doubters wrong.

 

And he’s taking walks and hitting bombs again.Pre-arbitration extensions have been pretty popular around the league. There have been eight such deals in baseball since the end of the winter meetings. Though the Twins, who have a whole nucleus of players that fit in that pre-arb category, were not one of those teams.

 

That should change with Sano.

 

Currently, Sano is a 1+ player, which means that he’ll be a pre-arbitration (near minimum) player again in 2018. He’ll enter his first of three arbitration years in 2019 and will first be eligible to be a free agent after the 2021 season.

 

Looking specifically at deals of players with 1+ year of experience, we need to look no further to find one than the most recent extension that was signed: The Cardinals and outfielder Stephen Piscotty. The two parties entered into an agreement that will earn Piscotty $1 million in each of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. He will earn $7 million in each of his first two scheduled arbitration years and $7.25 in what would be his final arbitration year and his first free agent season. The Cardinals hold an option at $15 million for the 2023 season with a $1 million buyout. Piscotty also got a $2 million signing bonus and is three years older than Sano. The formatting of this deal - the large jump into arbitration and the small jump into free agency - is definitely unique. He also was given a $2 million signing bonus. His guarantee is $32.5 million over the six years that begin next season.

 

We can look further though to see, perhaps, a better comparison: Christian Yelich of the Marlins. Yelich was 24 when he signed his deal, a year older than Sano is currently. Yelich also holds an advantage in bWAR, both career-wise and in head-to-head seasons. Any potential deal should probably follow the Yelich framework. Scheduled to receive $570,000 and $1 million in his final two pre-arb years, Yelich will get a big bump during his arbitration years, earning $3.5 million, $7 million and $9.75 million. His first two free agent years are bought out at $12 million and $14 million. Then there is a team option for $15 million with a $1.25 million buyout. All told, Yelich is guaranteed $49 million from his 2+ year through two years of free agency plus an option (seven years).

 

Using those two as models, what would an offer to Sano potentially look like?

 

It would be fair to assume that the bump he’ll receive in his final pre-arb year (‘18) will be $1 million. Piscotty’s deal gives a significant bump in the first year of arbitration, but not the first year of free agency, which makes Yelich’s a more believable model.

 

Looking at the Twins pre-arb extensions, they’ve used even jumps from arbitration years to the next. (Span was $1.75m and Dozier was $3m.) Using $3 million as a good starting point with $3.5 million increases, Sano would make $3 million, $6.5 million and $10 million.

 

The part that I will always feel the Twins screwed up with Dozier’s deal was not buying out any free agent years. The Twins can’t make that mistake with Sano.

 

Though the Marlins got two years of Yelich plus an option, I’m not going to suggest the Twins do the same with Sano. Mostly because I don’t think his reps would go for it. But my contention has always been that the tradeoff of cost-certainty for the team and guaranteed money for a young player isn’t fair. There has to be an added benefit for the team. And that comes in the form of a free agent year and a team option.

 

The $12 million that Yelich is getting for his first free agent year is fair and the $15 million option that the teams are getting on both players are getting is also fair. As an added bonus for Sano, the team’s buyout will be $2.5 million, increasing the guarantee.

 

Here’s the breakdown:

2018: $1 million

2019: $3 million (would be first arbitration year)

2020: $6.5 million

2021: $10 million

2022: $12 million (would be first free agent year)

2023: $15 million or $2.5 million buyout

 

Six years and $35 million.

 

Would you?

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Your offer is a no brainer if he would do it. I'd honestly offer more if necessary. I have a bad feeling he wants to play in a big market like NYC or LA. I do think he might agree to an extra year or two, but I doubt he'll go much more than that.

[Darius]

I'd love to see them extend him. But would he do it?

 

This guy could be an MVP caliber guy. If he keeps playing 3rd and hitting the way he has been.....I can't even imagine the sum of money he could get in a free agency type scenario down the road. He'll make enough just in arbitration to set up his family for life.

 

Signing 6 years 35 million.....I wouldn't do that knowing I could easily be looking at 30 percent of that in just one arbitration year. Then, after that year he could be leaving an average 10-15 mil per year (or more) on the table.

 

When you know you're already going to be wealthy, barring catastrophic circumstances (for which there is insurance), would you leave a possible 30-40-50 million dollars on the table between now and 2024?

[nytwinsfan]

I'd propose:

 

2018: $2 million
2019: $5 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $7.5 million
2021: $10 million
2022: $12.5 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $15 million or $2.5 million buyout

Total: $52 million

[drjim]

Very skeptical Sano takes that deal.

[Seth Stohs]

I think the Twins might do it.

 

I don't think Sano's side would do it.

 

And, many of these deals, like Tim Anderson's and others, have a couple more option years at really big numbers too so I would think they'd have a couple of option years that could add another $40 million if they're picked up.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think the Twins might do it.

 

I don't think Sano's side would do it.

 

And, many of these deals, like Tim Anderson's and others, have a couple more option years at really big numbers too so I would think they'd have a couple of option years that could add another $40 million if they're picked up.

 

Sure, add a few more. But would a player rather have that or guaranteed free agency at 30.

 

How about Kepler and this deal... would you?

 

How about Buxton?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd propose:

 

2018: $2 million

2019: $5 million (would be first arbitration year)

2020: $7.5 million

2021: $10 million

2022: $12.5 million (would be first free agent year)2023: $15 million or $2.5 million buyout

Total: $52 million

 

$39.5 million guarantee. Similar structure. Works for me.

[Mike Sixel]

Can't see less than nearly fifty million. Prices are escalating, though fangraphs had an article that these kinds of deals, oddly, were not reflecting that. They also had one saying these deals seem to be dying, since they seem to favor the team. Also, Sano already got some real money, lessening his incentive. His reps, imo would laugh at your offer.

Edited April 27, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Brandon Warne]

7/$100. Two $24 million team options on the back of what NYTwinsFan posted. 

[Thrylos]

I would, but why would Sano do it? 

 

Plouffe got about $15 million in arbitration.  Why should not Sano get 25? and then a cool 6/$25M per?  That is about $175M in 10 years or 17.5 M annual value.

 

For the Twins to be close to make anything happen, the magic number would be 8 years (maybe 1 with a mutual option) and that will take care up to his age 32 season and at about $15M annual value (of course structured heavier for his later years.)   So we are looking at an 8 yr/ $120M situation for a reasonable extension...

 

[scottz]

I also think the numbers will be higher than this. By a fair margin. 

[Twins33]

I was thinking Sano likely wouldn't do anything less than 6/60M, so I'm either way wrong or not. I'd be shocked if he accepted less though, shocked in a good way.

[drjim]

I would, but why would Sano do it?

 

Plouffe got about $15 million in arbitration. Why should not Sano get 25? and then a cool 6/$25M per? That is about $175M in 10 years or 17.5 M annual value.

 

For the Twins to be close to make anything happen, the magic number would be 8 years (maybe 1 with a mutual option) and that will take care up to his age 32 season and at about $15M annual value (of course structured heavier for his later years.) So we are looking at an 8 yr/ $120M situation for a reasonable extension...

Finally someone's being realistic. Might be able to knock down some of the FA years annual value for a little more upfront money, but I'd do it either way.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I think the structure put forward by Jeremy and nytwinsfan works but I would have thought it would need to be more like :

2018: $2 million
2019: $5 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $8 million
2021: $12 million
2022: $15 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $18 million or $3 million buyout

Total guaranteed: 6yrs/$45 million

to get Sano to bite. He still gets to test free agency at age 30 and $40m+ is a lot of money to walk away from as a 23yo with a season-ending elbow surgery already on his cv.

[tobi0040]

8/120 is closer to what it takes. Because I am guessing Jay-Z is licking his chops at a 27 year old Sano hitting the free agent market.

[Shaitan]

 

8/120 is closer to what it takes. Because I am guessing Jay-Z is licking his chops at a 27 year old Sano hitting the free agent market.

Exactly.

[Intramural Legend]

 

8/120 is closer to what it takes. Because I am guessing Jay-Z is licking his chops at a 27 year old Sano hitting the free agent market.

 

Agree - anything that has him making 10-15M in his first few years of FA is not going to happen. Why would he do it?  

 

Given inflation, I would think arbitration will have him making 15-20 in 2021 (Comp - Todd Frazier is at 12M this year in his final year) 

[Bill Brown69]

I heard a report that Sano wants to be the first $50 million per year player in baseball. I think Harper will beat him to it though. 

 

I have stated before that I didn't care 1 bit about the last 2-3 years of low payroll IF they use it later to keep a nucleus of good players. As a fan I am demanding that at least 4 of what had been ranked as the top farm system in baseball play at least 10 years with the Twins. 

 

Every player has question marks (even Sano, weight and elbow) BUT there are people making a lot of money to evaluate talent and get it right. For some reason the Puckett and Mauer contracts have made a lot of people think that it never works for us. BS! If you never take a chance you never get anywhere other than close/coulda/shoulda!

 

I would make Jeremy's offer to Kepler.

Sano would get an offer for much more, way much more.

I would also consider a couple others, but within reason. Polanco, Rosario and maybe even Buxton but I do realize there is no way to keep the whole band together. 

 

[kab21]

The phone call isn't even getting answered if there isn't 100M guaranteed and the last arb year and FA years aren't being bought out for 20-25M/yr.

Yelich and Piscotty are your comparables? Yelich signed his deal after a 9HR, .764 OPS and 4.4 WAR season. Piscotty signed his deal after a 22HR, .800 OPS and 2.8 WAR season.

 

A closer comparable to Sano is Bryce Harper (prior to 2015) who has basically said 'no, thanks' to any deals. Whether or not he is actually that good doesn't matter but he is more in that realm of player when money starts getting talked about.

[SDTwinsFan]

Why not front load his contract? Not to an excessive level, but do $10 million for 2018-2022. Then add in a $15 million club option for 2023, $20 million club option for 2024. That takes us through age 30, at which point, baseball money will be much different. Add in a solid buyout ($5 million each year?). That is $55 million guaranteed (up to $85). Shows some BIG respect for a young player. Gives Twins a chance to spend some of the money early--hopefully giving them a chance to spend on big free agents and/or other homegrown talent when they get to the "championship years".

 

Strong chance I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[HitInAPinch]

Until this past off-season, I would have been inclined to not offer a long term deal.  Here's hoping other Twins prospects find their Fernando Tatis.

 

I'm putting off the decision until later.  I want to see what happens after the All Star break.  I want to see if the lessons learned have stuck.  That, and I'm a pretty cheap guy by nature.  No Calvin Griffith, to be sure.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the Twins should extend him, but 6/35 seems a bit light... I'd have no problems bumping up those numbers to make it work.  Ideally, I'd like to see him in a Twins uniform for more than just the next 6 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can't see less than nearly fifty million. Prices are escalating, though fangraphs had an article that these kinds of deals, oddly, were not reflecting that. They also had one saying these deals seem to be dying, since they seem to favor the team. Also, Sano already got some real money, lessening his incentive. His reps, imo would laugh at your offer.

Yep. I don't see the team getting Miguel for less than $20m a season in his free agency years.

 

And definitely not a team option added on. Make those final two years $20/23m guaranteed and maybe Sano doesn't walk away from the table.

[tobi0040]

It seems that transferring Joe Mauer money to Miguel Sano seems like a solid trade. I like the idea of front loading and really enticing Sano.

 

I know we have a new front office, but hopefully we learned a lesson from Johan, Mauer, and Dozier. I would much, much rather trade Sano in a year than sign him to a dumb extension that does not buy out several free agent years. We would get a kings ransom and let's face it, how many years are we going to be in contention from 2017-2021?

 

Let's not waste this one too.

[drjim]

It seems that transferring Joe Mauer money to Miguel Sano seems like a solid trade. I like the idea of front loading and really enticing Sano.

 

I know we have a new front office, but hopefully we learned a lesson from Johan, Mauer, and Dozier. I would much, much rather trade Sano in a year than sign him to a dumb extension that does not buy out several free agent years. We would get a kings ransom and let's face it, how many years are we going to be in contention from 2017-2021?

 

Let's not waste this one too.

If the Twins play this right, they can acquire someone as good as Sano who they can then trade a couple years into his career.

[MN_ExPat]

Numbers make Hulk's brain hurt... Hulk get angry when brain hurt!!!    Hulk SMAAAAASH ugly numbers!!!!

 

I'm not going to even pretend to talk numbers (unless we start talking ballistics, and that's a whole different ball game - get it?.... sigh, nevermind).  

 

If he keeps up the play and the stats follow, sign him to an extension that works for both parties.

[tobi0040]

Completely agree DrJim

[Vanimal46]

 

I would, but why would Sano do it? 

 

Plouffe got about $15 million in arbitration.  Why should not Sano get 25? and then a cool 6/$25M per?  That is about $175M in 10 years or 17.5 M annual value.

 

For the Twins to be close to make anything happen, the magic number would be 8 years (maybe 1 with a mutual option) and that will take care up to his age 32 season and at about $15M annual value (of course structured heavier for his later years.)   So we are looking at an 8 yr/ $120M situation for a reasonable extension...

 

Completely agree. If there's any extension being discussed, I'd want 8 years like you said. 

[Winston Smith]

New front office, same owner. Is it likely the Pohlads suddenly open the pocket book after sewing it shut when they fired Bill Smith?