Article: Santiago Starting To Turn Heads

[KirbyDome89]

 

  On 4/19/2017 at 3:55 PM, howieramone2 said:

Who says we have to spend it during the offseason? It was money earmarked to be spent in 2017 and we have plenty of 2017 left. 

It was spent in 2017. The "savings," from that trade are gone. They used the money to resign Santiago and they're paying part of Nolasco's salary this season. 

[drjim]

 

  On 4/19/2017 at 6:54 PM, Winston Smith said:

With him Santana and Dozier we could have 3 real strong trade chips come July.

 

I wouldn't sleep on Kintzler either.

[MN_ExPat]

So can we safely say that Santiago is the Bumble Bee of pitchers?  He defies the laws nature of FIP (I.E. Flight).

[drivlikejehu]

His swinging strike rate is well above his career norms - 10.5% instead of 8-8.5% (it dipped below that in 2014 but then came back up). On a related note, hitters so far have chased outside the zone much more often than has been the case in the past against Santiago.

 

So, arguably his xFIP is misleading, regardless of whether he has the true ability to outperform it, because his strikeout rate is lower than would be expected based on his swinging strike %. 

 

But . . . it's 18 innings. Pitch data seems to indicate that his stuff and command are basically in line with the past. He certainly could have a decent year but there's no reason to think he's stepped up his overall game.

[Doomtints]

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome, let's let the sample size grow a bit.

[Linus]

  On 4/20/2017 at 12:22 AM, Doomtints said:

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome, let's let the sample size grow a bit.

Yep and we can do the same with Mauer, Rosario and Buxton before we burn them at the stake.

[kab21]

 

  On 4/19/2017 at 3:40 PM, Thrylos said:

His 90.0% LOB, 4.2 HR/FB, .222 BABIP along with 15.3% K% / 5.4 K/9 and 4.76 xFIP makes me think that it will be nice to enjoy the mirage while it lasts (or even better, finding a trade partner ASAP.)

Of course a 1.47 ERA is a mirage just like the 5.58 ERA last season with the Twins was a mirage. I think nearly everyone in this thread expects him to revert back to the average 4.00 (career ERA is a little lower) that he has always been and your stats do nothing to refute that.

I think we should all have the expectation that every GM knows that Santiago will go back to being Santiago. There is no find a trade partner fast because he has had 3 great starts.

The issue that I see the Twins facing is somehow clinging to a .500 record and not selling Santana or Santiago. Of course as a fan of MN sports I expect an 6 game losing streak at some point breaking our hearts. But winning would be great even if we weren't able to pawn off a couple of veterans for mediocre prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 12:35 AM, Linus said:

Yep and we can do the same with Mauer, Rosario and Buxton before we burn them at the stake.

 

It's almost like the last 2 years didn't happen, and people are only judging these guys on this year. Not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 1:49 PM, Mike Sixel said:

It's almost like the last 2 years didn't happen, and people are only judging these guys on this year. Not.

Sure, Buxton and Mauer have question marks but people are concerned about Rosario.

 

Why?

 

It's fine to show emotion and want players to succeed. What I find maddening is watching people who have been baseball fans for a decade or longer gnashing their teeth over a dozen games. What an exhausting way to live.

 

Yes, I'm concerned about Buxton. I'm concerned about Mauer. I'm watching Rosario closely... but man, it's 14 games. If Rosario has two good games, he jumps above his career OPS. If Buxton or Mauer have two good games, their numbers are suddenly respectable.

 

Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me.

 

I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:13 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.

Well, it kinda seems everyone is right to me. Buxton is having huge problems right now. He's also played only a dozen games.

 

If Buxton hadn't shown windmill tendencies in the past, I'd chalk this up to a horrific start and that's that. But this isn't new to Buxton. He's done this before. And we should be really concerned about it happening over and over again.

 

On the flip side of that coin, he's begun to strike out less in recent games. He looks a bit more cohesive at the plate. If he keeps trending in that direction, he should begin to come around. And given how early it is in the season, if he has three consecutive good games, this problem fades from memory in a hurry.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:19 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well, it kinda seems everyone is right to me. Buxton is having huge problems right now. He's also played only a dozen games.

 

If Buxton hadn't shown windmill tendencies in the past, I'd chalk this up to a horrific start and that's that. But this isn't new to Buxton. He's done this before. And we should be really concerned about it happening over and over again.

 

On the flip side of that coin, he's begun to strike out less in recent games. He looks a bit more cohesive at the plate. If he keeps trending in that direction, he should begin to come around. And given how early it is in the season, if he has three consecutive good games, this problem fades from memory in a hurry.

 

I'm looking, as KLAW suggested, for months of good outcomes before I can erase months of bad outcomes from my mind.

[drjim]

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:13 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.

I, for one, appreciate the burden you're willing to bear for the good of the board.

 

It's a lonely island to say Buxton is struggling right now.

[kab21]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:03 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

EDITED out

 

Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me.

 

I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.

But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:28 PM, drjim said:

I, for one, appreciate the burden you're willing to bear for the good of the board.

It's a lonely island to say Buxton is struggling right now.

 

this made me laugh out loud. Nicely done. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:29 PM, kab21 said:

But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:23 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm looking, as KLAW suggested, for months of good outcomes before I can erase months of bad outcomes from my mind.

I agree. Waiting for Buck to have a 2 for 4 game with 2 doubles and 5 RBI in a 6-4 win. Some will proclaim that Buck is now a star!

I believe consistent hitting will come.

I am, on the other hand, finding it increasingly difficult to be patient.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:32 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

 

I'd say it's close. Another half year of this, and it's hard to say he's not this, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:39 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd say it's close. Another half year of this, and it's hard to say he's not this, imo.

Yeah, pretty much my thoughts as well.

[kab21]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:32 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:54 PM, kab21 said:

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

 

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:54 PM, kab21 said:

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

If it was one season, I'd be more skeptical of it... But picking up a second half season and performing at the same level gives it a bit more weight, IMO.

 

Guys get hot all the time and ride that streak for a couple of months. Picking up that hot streak six months later and doing it again seems more unlikely, IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:55 PM, Mike Sixel said:

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

His BABIP is maybe 20 points too high, 30 points tops.

 

It's hardly the 60-80 points Santana and Colabello saw in their "breakout" seasons.

[drjim]

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:54 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

There was a time when Robbie Grossman was considered a hot Pirates prospect and Houston pursued him as part of a trade. Maybe he just took a couple of extra years to hit his stride. . I think Grossman is for real as a .280/.375/.425 kind of hitter. Also food for thought on waiting for Rosario and Buxton to hit their potential (for that matter, Kepler and Polanco too). Sometimes it takes some time.

Not only that, they were trying to sign him to an early extension (which Grossman turned down). So he isn't exactly coming from nowhere.

[kab21]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 2:55 PM, Mike Sixel said:

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

.370 BAPIP

Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really.

And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 3:02 PM, kab21 said:

.370 BAPIP

Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really.

And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.

It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground.

 

That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.

[Mike Sixel]

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

[kab21]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 3:04 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground.

 

That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.

So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that.

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 3:04 PM, Mike Sixel said:

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

I will take it also. In fact it is what I projected BEFORE the season began when some people wanted to cut him.

[Oxtung]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 3:04 PM, Mike Sixel said:

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

Until he actually plays in the OF, then his defensive shortcomings make him a liability.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 4/20/2017 at 3:17 PM, kab21 said:

So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that.

I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no.

 

And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games.

 

Is that truly unreasonable?

 

The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.