On one hand, we could argue a long time about the "best" lineup, but the reality is that there will likely be 100+ different lineups used over the course of the year. Last year used 148(!), with no single lineup used more that thrice. All five ALC teams used at least 100, even Cleveland.

 

On the other hand, keep arguing, because that means we're within a week of Opening Day!

 

So my preference is, "Whatever lineup comes after the words, 'Play Ball!'"

My order would be 1) Mauer 2)Dozier 3)Buxton 4)Sano 5)Park 6)Rosario 7)Kepler 8)Castro 9)Polanco.. Id be fine with Polanco at 2 doz at 3 and Buxton at 9 to start the year, though.

 

Dozier was better with the bases empty in 2016, but a subset of a single season is such a small sample it is pretty meaningless...

 

Oops. That sample wasn't a subset, it was for the entire 2016 season.

 

The same stat across Dozier's entire career is even more telling:

 

42.6% of his ABs came when batting in the 1st position

53.2% of his RBIs came when batting in the 1st position

 

So for the tiny subset of Dozier's entire career, he has been more productive hitting lead off than anywhere else in the lineup.

Oops. That sample wasn't a subset, it was for the entire 2016 season.

A single season split (like PA with men on base, etc.) is, by definition, a subset of a single season.

The same stat across Dozier's entire career is even more telling:

 

42.6% of his ABs came when batting in the 1st position

53.2% of his RBIs came when batting in the 1st position

 

So for the tiny subset of Dozier's entire career, he has been more productive hitting lead off than anywhere else in the lineup.

So Dozier's rookie season struggles, when he never batted leadoff, is going to be used as evidence that he's just not as productive outside the leadoff spot?

 

Also, RBIs is a poor measure of anything meaningful. It is a counting stat. You would want to look at opportunities and how many he converted -- after all, you wouldn't want to judge Dozier as a less productive hitter down in the order if it was a function of batting behind worse hitters.

I wrote down these potential 2017 lineups on a notepad at the end of the 2016 season, and dug them up this week. They are lineups that I liked, not necessarily what I thought the Twins would use (particularly because they are pretty platoon-oriented). Note that I've updated them by plugging in Castro for Centeno's spot, and I left one outfielder unnamed because, well, see notes below Re: Santana/Grossman.

 

vs RHP

Mauer 1B

Kepler RF

Dozier 2B

Sano DH

Escobar SS

Buxton CF

Rosario LF

Polanco 3B

Centeno Castro C

 

Bench

(Random right-handed hitting outfielder)

Murphy

Park

 

 

vs LHP

Polanco DH

Buxton CF

Dozier 2B

Sano 3B

Park 1B

Escobar SS

Rosario LF

(Random right-handed hitting outfielder) RF

Murphy C

 

Bench

Kepler

Mauer

Centeno Castro

 

A couple of notes...

 

1) Yes, I do like Escobar that much.

 

2) Apparently I wasn't too far out of line to assume a 13-man pitching staff. But really I just couldn't think of a guy that would be helpful enough both in the field and at the plate. Examples:

a. Vargas? How many DH/1B can you carry?

b. Grossman? Couldn't handle the thought of him playing the field in 2017.

c. Santana? Couldn't handle the thought of him playing the field OR hitting in 2017.

 

3) Is it just me or does anybody else think a guy like Aaron Hicks would be a pretty good fit for this team? Rests either Rosario or Kepler against left-handed pitching and can rest Buxton in CF as well.

 

4) Is it good, bad, or just weird that almost all the guys that I wrote down at the end of 2016 are still "the guys" for 2017?