Article: Report From The Fort: Batting Order Time!

[ThejacKmp]

Cuz it's fun, what it should be:

 

Vs. Righties

1B Mauer

SS Polanco

2B Dozier

3B Sano

RF Kepler

CF Buxton

LF Rosario

DH Park

C Castro

 

Park maybe seems low but he doesn't have the side advantage here. 

 

Vs. Lefties

LF Grossman

3B Polanco

2B Dozier

DH Sano

1B Park

CF Buxton

RF Rosario

SS Escobar

C Gimenez

 

Fully believe that when Mauer sits, Sano should DH. Keep him fresh all year and get Escobar some time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But the most revealent because it was last year. 

Maybe but I don't think it's terribly relevant. This is Dozier's career thus far:

 

2013: 100 OPS point advantage to Men on Base

2014: No advantage for either Men on Base or Bases Empty

2015: 50 OPS point advantage to Men on Base

2016: 150 OPS point advantage to Bases Empty

 

There's no trend there. Like most players, it's just kinda scattershot and all over the place because that tends to happen to players when viewing splits year-by-year. The relatively SSS causes a lot of fluctuation.

[bighat]

 

The only thing I don't want to see is Dozier leading off. I got tired of seeing countless solo HRs while he could have hit runners in. I know his OBP is good, but I'd rather see him in the 2-4 spots.

 

I agree Dan.  We keep hearing that "Dozier likes hitting leadoff" and assume that he wouldn't have hit 42 home runs if he was batting cleanup.  Probably true, but he'd have still hit 30 and that's not bad.    One issue:  I'm guessing if the Twins get a few guys on, pitchers are going to be careful about pitching to Dozier in the 3 or 4 hole.  That means the guy following Dozier is going to have to be good.  Do we put Mauer behind Dozier in the 5-spot?  Does that mean we put Bux in the 3-hole? 

 

I like: 

 

1. Polanco

2. Kepler

3. Bux

4. Dozier

5. Mauer

6. Sano

7. Park

8. Rosario

9. Castro

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wish managers would show a little more proactive thinking in these situations.

 

Brian Dozier: "I like hitting leadoff, I do better in that role."

 

Paul Molitor: "Brian, here are your stats from last season. Notice how you hit better in the cleanup spot, posting an elite .950 OPS. So how about we put you where it helps the team score the most runs instead?"

 

In no way am I suggesting Dozier is better in the cleanup spot because he hits better there. I would make that statement solely to show Dozier that his perspective is skewed, not that I believe he would do better or worse in any given spot in the lineup.

 

The guy is a classic middle of the order bat. The team will score fewer runs with him in the leadoff spot and that's all that should matter.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

For a team that young, I would not worry about having the high OBP first, but I would worry more about protecting strikeout prone batters.  I think something like:

 

Polanco-Buxton-Mauer-Sano-Dozier-Park-Kepler-Rosario-Castro

 

might work pretty well.

Are you concerned about batting 3 right-handed batters in a row, followed by 3 left-handed batters in a row?

[Mike Sixel]

There is no guarantee he'll hit at that level if he hits leadoff, either. And the data is clear, it is fairly random. I'd prefer Dozier hit 2nd or 3rd, but I'm not sure how much it really matters, as long as he's in the top 3-4 in the order so he gets more ABs than others....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

While I think Dozier would be better hitting 30 to 40 home runs in the middle of the lineup, he clearly prefers and is more comfortable hitting leadoff.

In 183 career PAs and a career-best .885 OPS from the cleanup spot, he sure looks "comfortable" in that role to me.

 

I'm not saying Brian Dozier's opinion should be ignored. What I'm saying is part of the manager's role is to explain to players that sometimes superstition is just that, superstition. Paul Molitor shouldn't be acquiescing to Dozier's desire to bat leadoff immediately, he should be lobbying Dozier that the best way to help the team is from the middle of the order and statistically, Brian has been slightly better in the cleanup spot than leadoff.

 

It's important to keep players happy and give their opinion weight. It's also important to point out when they're wrong and/or just being silly about something, especially when that something negatively impacts the team. If a manager can't perform that task, why is he there at all?

[Dave The Dastardly]

"Or, I suppose one could look at left-handed hitting catcher Jason Castro, who has veteranness (veterenacity? veterantment?) on his side."

 

John- Might I suggest "veteranshipmanship". Apologies to MASH.

 

Nice article by the way. I am getting so baseball smart from this site I think the Twins will soon be calling me to take over for Molly. Unless of course they go with Dougie instead.

[mikelink45]

Lets play for the future.  If we have an idea of where 2018 might be we should start working players into that system.  Dozier, Polanco, Buxton in the top three is great potential and I would love them to stick with it for at least two months to see if it will work.  

Mauer is not a 4/5 batter - Park, Sano fit better and I would not worry about their batting sides.  Use them there.  If Sano fails, move him down, not out.  The end of the lineup is really interesting.  Mauer, Rosario, Kepler, Castro could bat anywhere from 6 - 9, but I like Rosario or Kepler as an on base option for Doziers subsequent at bats.  Remember that the first batter could potentially be lead off only in the first inning.  I would have put Mauer and his OBP there, but I know they could never consider putting him 9 so I would take six, Castro 7 and Kepler/Rosario 8 and 9. 

[sthpstm]

 

I think we need to avoid falling in the trap of looking at a guys statistics and assuming they will be the same regardless of where they hit in the lineup. While I think Dozier would be better hitting 30 to 40 home runs in the middle of the lineup, he clearly prefers and is more comfortable hitting leadoff.. There is far from any guarantee that he will continue to perform at the same level if you move him into the 3, 4 or 5 hole. Moreover, we really don't have a traditional leadoff hitter in that Mauer and Grossman are both too slow  and Polanco is as yet unproven.I think what we  are going to do, and probably should do is:

 

VS. RH

 

Dozier

Mauer

Sano

Kepler

Buxton

Rosario

Park

Castro

Polanco

 

Other option - move Park into the 4 hole, and Kepler, Buxton and Rosario all slide down one to hit 5, 6 and 7. 

 

VS. LH

 

Dozier

Grossman

Sano

Park

Mauer/Kepler (depending on whether Grossman is in RF or DH with Park at 1B)

Buxton

Rosario/Kepler (see above) 

Polanco

Gimenez

 

Also makes it easier to put in reserves without switching the battting order unless you sub for Sano with Escobar.  Then, you just bat Escobar 8 and put Polanco at 2, Mauer at 3 and Escobar at 8 against RH, and move Buxton to 3, Polanco to 6 and Escobar 8 against LH.  Same with Adrianza if he makes the team.    

The only argument I can make on Dozier is that he actually hit better at the 4 spot than the 1 spot last year. And yes, it was a SSS but it was far and away the most at bats he's had at the 4 spot in the majors. Maybe he prefers the 1 spot because that's almost all he's done. More time at the 4 spot, and success there, and he might change his mind.

[gocgo]

Hasn't Buxton been working on his bunting?  I would consider batting him behind Dozier in the 2 spot due to the amount of pressure that puts on a defense.  As far as not batting Dozier at leadoff because of the home runs, he also gets better pitches to start off a game because no pitcher wants to walk the first guy.  I'd have him lead off.  I like Kepler splitting up Sano and Park.  You could also split them up by batting Sano 3rd, Mauer 4th, Park 5th, and then follow him up with Kepler.  So, here's my twisted lineup (not saying good, but something else to consider):

 

Dozier

Buxton

Sano

Mauer

Park

Kepler

Polanco

Rosario

Castro

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting stats. I guess I am also swayed by the lack of other options for the lead off role. I'm not real comfortable with Mauer/Grossman there because of their lack of speed. Perhaps that's too old school but I think Molitor feels the same way.  Do you think Polanco is ready to lead off? I frankly don't see another candidate. 

I'd run with Polanco but that's just my opinion. I can see a few reasons to go with Mauer or Grossman or whatever.

 

But I think it's folly to put a 40 home run guy in the leadoff spot where he's guaranteed to spend 20-25% of his plate appearances with no one on base. Given an equal distribution of home runs, that means Dozier will hit 3-4 home runs without anyone on base where, if he was hitting further down the lineup, men would be on base in those situations. That one move alone will cost the team between three and ten runs over the course of a season.*

 

*predicated on the idea Dozier is a 40 homer guy, shift the numbers accordingly if you think he's a 30 homer guy

[Ryan Atkins]

I am comfortable having Dozier lead off and he is obviously most comfortable there as well.

 

There IS a statistical trend with Dozier. The trend is that for 5 consecutive years (his whole career), he has increased his H, HR, and RBI totals every year. So, why make him uncomfortable, just enjoy the ride.

 

Just because you hit lead off doesn't mean you never hit with men on base. That is only guaranteed to happen once per game. Similarly, just because you are not leading off doesn't guarantee that you will be hitting with men on base.

 

68% of Miguel Sano HR in 2016 were solo.

71 % of Brian Dozier HR in 2016 were solo.

 

Really, not much difference there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am comfortable having Dozier lead off and he is obviously most comfortable there as well.

 

There IS a statistical trend with Dozier. The trend is that for 5 consecutive years (his whole career), he has increased his H, HR, and RBI totals every year. So, why make him uncomfortable, just enjoy the ride.

 

Just because you hit lead off doesn't mean you never hit with men on base. That is only guaranteed to happen once per game. Similarly, just because you are not leading off doesn't guarantee that you will be hitting with men on base.

 

68% of Miguel Sano HR in 2016 were solo.

71 % of Brian Dozier HR in 2016 were solo.

 

Really, not much difference there.

 

Once per game, is, what? 155 at bats, or 25% of at bats? That's a lot of at bats. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Once per game, is, what? 155 at bats, or 25% of at bats? That's a lot of at bats. 

Yeah. Break down the numbers and it gets pretty ugly.

 

150 plate appearances is 22% of Dozier's 2016 plate appearances.

 

Brian Dozier hit 42 home runs last season. 22% of 42 is nine home runs.

 

Assuming the average player down the order goes to the plate with men on base 40% of the time, that means at least four of his home runs scored a single run when, had he hit further down the order, they would have scored multiple runs.

 

Assuming the average men on base number is 1.5, that is, at minimum, six runs the Twins left on the table last season.

 

Six runs is close to one team win.

[Ryan Atkins]

I agree it is not ideal to have Dozier as a lead off hitter, I just think in his current situation with this team, it is the best option right now--that could always change. But I love the idea of hitting Buxton 3rd and hope that will really launch his career.

 

Keep in mind that over the course of a season, the lead off hitter will also have more plate appearances than any other batting order position.

 

Sano - 8 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 3rd or 4th

Dozier - 12 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 1st

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree it is not ideal to have Dozier as a lead off hitter, I just think in his current situation with this team, it is the best option right now--that could always change. But I love the idea of hitting Buxton 3rd and hope that will really launch his career.

 

Keep in mind that over the course of a season, the lead off hitter will also have more plate appearances than any other batting order position.

 

Sano - 8 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 3rd or 4th

Dozier - 12 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 1st

 

That could be partly because Dozier hit 42 HRs, meaning he wasn't on base 42 times when he did get a hit....and he hit in front of Sano (not that moving Dozier to 3rd changes that).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just because you hit lead off doesn't mean you never hit with men on base. That is only guaranteed to happen once per game. Similarly, just because you are not leading off doesn't guarantee that you will be hitting with men on base.

 

68% of Miguel Sano HR in 2016 were solo.

71 % of Brian Dozier HR in 2016 were solo.

 

Really, not much difference there.

Do you want your best HR hitter hitting behind Castro/Gimenez, Escobar/Santana, and whoever else they stick at the bottom of the lineup?  (For 10 games this season, we will even have a pitcher batting.)

 

Or would you rather have them hitting behind Mauer, Grossman, Polanco, etc.?

 

Also, Dozier's 2016 numbers are skewed because he only batted leadoff slightly less than half the time.  For a better comparison, look at Detroit -- they had a pretty steady lineup last year.  Conveniently, their regular leadoff hitter Kinsler and regular number 3 hitter Cabrera each had 679 total PA, but Cabrera had 81 more PA with men on base.  Basically every other game he was coming up an extra time with men on, as compared to the leadoff spot in the lineup.

 

Is that an advantage worth flushing away, for uncertain player comfort? (As has been pointed out in this thread, no matter what he says about preferring the leadoff spot, Dozier's numbers in the cleanup spot were great last year.) Unless your lineup is overflowing with talent, I don't think so.

Edited March 27, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keep in mind that over the course of a season, the lead off hitter will also have more plate appearances than any other batting order position.

Twins leadoff batters had 34 more PA than Twins #3 batters last year.

 

Which is worth more?

 

+1 total PA every 5 games (likely with no one on base)

 

or +1 PA with men on base every other game

 

If you've got a ton of great hitters in your lineup, it probably doesn't matter.  Likewise if Dozier was surrounded entirely by scrubs, maybe it doesn't matter so much.  But the Twins have some very strong OBP guys in Mauer and Grossman, with hopefully more to join them soon.  And some sizable question marks in their projected middle of the order bats (Sano, Park, etc.).  And a few terrible OBP guys at the bottom of the lineup.  Seems very wasteful to bat Dozier ahead of the best OBPs, and behind the worst OBPs, without a compelling reason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

At +34 PA for the season, with his 2016 rates, Dozier would hit 2 extra HR, 2 other XBH, and 8 more times reaching first, while batting leadoff.  All more likely with no one on base.

 

At +81 PA with men on base, it would add baserunners to 5 solo HR, 5 other XBH, and 18 more times reaching first.

 

It seems pretty evident which is the bigger contributor to team run scoring, no?

[Bill Brown69]

The #4 hitter leads of the second inning 33% of the time. The #3 hitter is AB with nobody on 50% of the time in the first inning. 

 

That is why I had Polonco and Rosario batting 8 and 9. No matter where you are most of your RBIs come from the guys hitting before you getting on and preferably standing on 2nd. 

Edited March 27, 2017 by Bill Brown69

[BuxtonBandwagon]

The one thing I hope to see this year is molly trying different lineups based on who's hot and who's pitching. One thing nobody has talked about on this thread because molitor said it's not gonna happen is buxton batting leadoff. I know he doesn't have the ideal on base % and most of his hits are extra base hits I wouldn't mind seeing him batting leadoff. A lot of the doubles he hits would be singles for most players but he turns them into doubles. So if he's leading off games with a double or a single then stealing second and mauer is walking or doing his ground out to second then you got buxton at third with dozier and sano coming to bat. Also I don't mind dozier leading off if he's most comfortable there

 

Vs RH

Buxton/Dozier

Mauer

Dozier/Buxton

Sano

Kepler

Park

Castro

Polanco

Rosario

 

Vs. LH

Buxton/Dozier

Grossman

Dozier/Buxton

Sano

Kepler

Park

Polanco

Giminez

Escobar

[nicksaviking]

I remember back in the day when the Twins traded for Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo. The Twins didn't just acquire them because of the position they played, but because they filled a specific need in the lineup.

 

It doesn't seem like the Twins have done much of that lately.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

For a better comparison, look at Detroit -- they had a pretty steady lineup last year.  Conveniently, their regular leadoff hitter Kinsler and regular number 3 hitter Cabrera each had 679 total PA, but Cabrera had 81 more PA with men on base.  Basically every other game he was coming up an extra time with men on, as compared to the leadoff spot in the lineup.

 

I would suggest that if Miguel Cabrera played for the Twins, he would still be batting #3 and Dozier would still be batting #1. Dozier and Kinsler are very similar players.

 

The problem is that we don't have a Miguel Cabrera

 

The % of Dozier's RBIs while in the lead off position should be far less that the % of Dozier's ABs while in the lead off position if it were always true that RBIs came easier from a lower batting position. But alas...

 

49.7 % of ABs came from Batting 1st
49.5 % of RBIs came from Batting 1st

 

Now, I am sure that is an anomaly of sorts.  And it is true, in general, that you have more RBIs batting 3rd or 4th than you do batting 1st. But maybe there is actually a dependency on the human player and the others on the team as far as where each fits in relative to the others.

 

All we can really do is put our trust in Paul Molitor since he will be setting the lineup. And it wouldn't surprise me if he has Dozier leading off in game #1.

[ashbury]

No, it should read:

 

"Batting Grossman first is Gross, man."

A flubbed opportunity, I agree. ☺

[ashbury]

I remember back in the day when the Twins traded for Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo. The Twins didn't just acquire them because of the position they played, but because they filled a specific need in the lineup.

 

It doesn't seem like the Twins have done much of that lately.

Then again the Tommy Herr trade came from that thinking, and we know how well that worked out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then again the Tommy Herr trade came from that thinking, and we know how well that worked out.

 

It's still baffling how badly that one went. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The % of Dozier's RBIs while in the lead off position should be far less that the % of Dozier's ABs while in the lead off position if it were always true that RBIs came easier from a lower batting position. But alas...

 

49.7 % of ABs came from Batting 1st

49.5 % of RBIs came from Batting 1st

 

Now, I am sure that is an anomaly of sorts. And it is true, in general, that you have more RBIs batting 3rd or 4th than you do batting 1st. But maybe there is actually a dependency on the human player and the others on the team as far as where each fits in relative to the others.

Dozier was better with the bases empty in 2016, but a subset of a single season is such a small sample it is pretty meaningless. He was also poor in high leverage situations in 2016, but you wouldn't suggest pinch hitting for him because of that, would you? You wouldn't use single season platoon splits to make him a platoon player, would you? That's basically what you are doing by using his 2016 bases empty split to justify batting him leadoff.

[nicksaviking]

 

Then again the Tommy Herr trade came from that thinking, and we know how well that worked out.

 

Funny you mention that, I almost included Herr in my post to preemptively acknowledge it doesn't always work, but I figured no one would make that connection.

 

Ya got me!

[IndianaTwin]

 

 

Mom always said, "If you can't say something nice..."