Rotation "Set"

[beckmt]

Look at it this way, we have Vogelsong and Tempesh at AAA to back the young starters, and I did not say to cut the veterans, I said to shop them and take offers if not lowballs. Sometimes pitchers develop faster in the big leagues, look at the number of college pitchers who are up in about 2 years. I understand Twins need to address Molitor's job security, but that is a separate issue. Do right by the players, worry about the manager later. With this pitching staff I see little chance Molitor is here after this year anyway, unless Pohlad insists and if I am the head of baseball ops or the GM I might walk if the owner is going to meddle.

[beckmt]

A back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation is better than a Vogelsong retread or sub-replacement level player regardless of who is starting at the top. So I fail to see your point.

Twins at the current time have 12 pitchers for 5 rotation spots. Trading a couple of the veterans at the end of spring training will not hurt. They are blocking the future and you will not find out what you have if the future is in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

At least two of the "core four" could likely be DFA'd today and would go unclaimed - Hughes and Santiago. Last year, Milone was given the same starting opportunity, was outrighted, went to AAA after nobody wanted his salary, then was again available to be brought back up. Hughes and Santiago would be in the same boat, but instead they're being given scholarships. To announce it this early, on a team with this track record, that suggests that management thinks the next candidates just aren't good.

Actually both Santiago and Hughes could refuse an outright minor league assignment, and with 5+ years service time, they would be entitled to their full salaries.

 

Milone only had 4 years service time, so he had to accept the outright assignment to keep his salary.

[laloesch]

 

What happened to the no scholarships rule? 

 

If the start to this spring training is a sign of things to come for Hughes upcoming season we have serious reasons for concern already.  High eighties fastballs with little to no movement is a recipe for disaster.  He is going to get CLOBBERED this year throwing like that.  IMO the Twins are crazy naming him a starter the way things currently stand.  I don't care how much money he's owed.  That's like saying: we choose to lose for the sake of losing, but everyone knows its the MONEY and it's the dam truth.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Agreed re: Hughes.  However, since Santiago is on an arbitration-agreed contract that is not guaranteed before the Twins break camp, they can cut him in March and pay only 25% of what he was to be owed ($2M) for the year and call it a day

I thought there was something about Santiago that took that option away. But I'm not sure. I think in general you're right but I think there might be an obstacle in this individual case.  That said, it's a moot point since the Twins aren't going to cut him.

[puckstopper1]

 

There are $42 million reasons you shouldn't be surprised at Hughes being in the rotation.  

 

If it were my decision he'd be the one going to the bullpen, but its not my money... 

 

Sounds like the Nolasco syndrome still exists with the Twins...

[Mike Sixel]

See, I don't think it is the money at all.

 

I think they saw what Hughes can be, and they want to see if it happens again this year. I have my doubts, and believe he'd be a VG to great RP, but I can't totally blame them for trying Hughes out as a SP again. I just want them to be decisive in May if he's not GOOD.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

Most of the playoff teams in my estimation(I do not have the numbers in front of me)would have a starting pitcher WAR of 15 or higher. ...

If you're interested, the 8 teams with the highest SP WAR (per FanGraphs) all made the playoffs. Mets led with 18.3 WAR, Indians 8th with 13.8 

Orioles (in 18th place with 9.5 WAR) and the Rangers (in 22nd place with 7.9 WAR) were the other two.

The Twins had 6.0 WAR.

 

EDIT: data here

[VikingGuy]

 

I saw in a notes section (Strib) that Molitor said barring some significant change his starters are Santana, Hughes, Gibson and Santiago. Berrios, May, et al will battle for the 5th spot.

This shocked me that he would say something like this so early. How can he be so comfortable saying this after last year? In my book Santana is a lock and the rest can battle it out with no guarantees.

I think he can say that because he realizes that any 25-man is fluid.  Opening Day rotation is one thing. July/August rotation is another.

[alarp33]

 

See, I don't think it is the money at all.

 

I think they saw what Hughes can be, and they want to see if it happens again this year. I have my doubts, and believe he'd be a VG to great RP, but I can't totally blame them for trying Hughes out as a SP again. I just want them to be decisive in May if he's not GOOD.

 

If he wasn't coming off a fairly major injury, I would probably agree with you.  

 

My real issue is going to be if its May that is moved to the pen to start the season.  For now, if May wins the 5th spot in the rotation, I don't have a huge issue with giving Hughes April to see how he looks as a starter

[beckmt]

If you're interested, the 8 teams with the highest SP WAR (per FanGraphs) all made the playoffs. Mets led with 18.3 WAR, Indians 8th with 13.8 

Orioles (in 18th place with 9.5 WAR) and the Rangers (in 22nd place with 7.9 WAR) were the other two.

The Twins had 6.0 WAR.

 

EDIT: data here

This validates on of the points I have been making. Most teams making the playoffs have starting pitching WAR greater than average. The other two clubs did not make it very far in the playoffs. Pitching matters, Twins need to find out how the youngsters do, will understand if they cannot trade a couple of starters at the end of spring training as you cannot give assets away, but expect they can get a fair transaction at that time and open more spots to the younger pitchers.

[laloesch]

 

If he wasn't coming off a fairly major injury, I would probably agree with you.  

 

My real issue is going to be if its May that is moved to the pen to start the season.  For now, if May wins the 5th spot in the rotation, I don't have a huge issue with giving Hughes April to see how he looks as a starter

 

I don't have a problem with that unless its at the expense of Berrios whom we need to work into this rotation at some point.  The sooner he takes off the better.  If May is struggling at the end of spring training then perhaps he should go to the pen or AAA to get his head on straight.  If Santiago, Gibson or Hughes is really struggling at the end of spring training then they better reconsider unlocking three of those slots that are apparently "locked" before the season kicks off.  

 

It all depends on how these guys pitch the next few weeks.  That's why i don't understand why Molitor said what he said.  Just silly IMO.  

[Taildragger8791]

 

Actually both Santiago and Hughes could refuse an outright minor league assignment, and with 5+ years service time, they would be entitled to their full salaries.

Milone only had 4 years service time, so he had to accept the outright assignment to keep his salary.

 

I kind of wish that system were changed a little. Make it so vested veterans can refuse assignment and walk away with 20% or 30% of their remaining contract and still get to be free agents. If they want their full remaining contract they can be sent down to clear 25-man roster space. They can always try to earn their way back, but this gives the team and the player some flexibility to move on from bad situations or at least make them better. I doubt many players want to be the albatross on a team who gets playing time or roster space based on his contract instead of his performance. Let him accrue MLB service time too if you want, I don't care. Just don't clog my roster.

 

I'm sure this would open up avenues for abuse that need to be considered, but it's silly that teams are stuck reserving a roster spot for non-performing veterans just because their contracts by nature are expensive and guaranteed.

[Boom Boom]

Berrios had his chance. 14 of them last season. And he sucked: 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 1.869 WHIP

 

Worse than Santiago

Worse than Gibson

Worse than Hughes

Worse than Dean

Worse than Albers

Worse than Nolasco

Worse than Duffey

Worse than Milone

 

If Berrios who pitched worse than all of those, and apparently is not interested in staying with the Twins to fight for a spot in their rotation, deserves a spot, why any of the others (eg. Gibson, Hughes, Santiago) who pitched better than him, and are actually pitching for the Twins this Spring, should not? How about Duffey? How about Mejia?

 

Berrios is not a major league ready pitcher, and as a matter of fact, he is not one of the 5 best starters for the Twins right now. Some day he will be. Hopefully before the season ends.

I was only using Berrios as an example of a Twins pitcher who hasn't been penned into the rotation. Substitute May, Duffey, Mejia, or whoever and my point is the same - Molitor has a vested interest in not throwing non-veterans to the wolves.

 

Not sure why you seem to have a gripe with Berrios for pitching in the WBC. It sounds like you think he should be punished for that.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope our new FO doesn't care about the money the old FO spent when making decisions....

[Deduno Abides]

If I were guessing as to which pitchers could put up one to two WAR this year, I'd pick the core four. If I were guessing which pitchers could put up 3.5 WAR or more, however, it'd be Berrios and May at the top of the list, with Santana third. Hughes is a contraction for "who knows?" Gibson and Santiago may be two WAR at their ceilings, which may have occurred in the past.

[Linus]

I guess I just don't get the mentality. I think Molitor should be putting the entire pitching staff on notice that last year is unacceptable. IDK not much has changed.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Not sure why you seem to have a gripe with Berrios for pitching in the WBC. It sounds like you think he should be punished for that.

 

Punished?  Nope.  It is a choice that he made and it should have consequences.  If you are in a battle for a spot and you leave, it is natural that others will get ahead of him.   As is he will not pitch for 9 days after the last time he pitched.  And at this point both May and Mejia seem to be ahead of Berrios and they will be getting the ball every 5th day, so he will fall further behind.

[Jham]

This validates on of the points I have been making. Most teams making the playoffs have starting pitching WAR greater than average. The other two clubs did not make it very far in the playoffs. Pitching matters, Twins need to find out how the youngsters do, will understand if they cannot trade a couple of starters at the end of spring training as you cannot give assets away, but expect they can get a fair transaction at that time and open more spots to the younger pitchers.

Do we really have to go through a prospect carousal to find out that all our pitching prospects aren't ready to be even average major leaguers yet? Look a at Gibby. Look at Hughes. Look at Santana. These were premium arms coming up who have been fairly pedestrian major leaguers. What are the odds that May, Berrios, Mejia, et al will be better than those guys at their peaks. Let alone early on. Hughes Gibby and Santana have had recent success. Better defense can help. A not 0-9 start will help. If we get to May or June and things are bad start looking. If May or Berrios had come up and killed it, they wouldn't be in this position. But they were called up before they were ready.

 

Some of these kids are victims to their own prospect ratings. We treat them like potential aces for no reason. Berrios is a AAA Ace. What is that in the majors?

 

Of course guys could develop. Happens occasionally. But it's not a great bet. A bet on Hughes or Gibby to rebound is a strong bet, imo. And we have a hedged bet if they don't bounce back. Then we can go get a hopefully more prepared prospect up.

 

If we have play them in the show in order to see what we have, we probably have crap. Do we need a year? Can't we see what we have in the guys with more/equal talent and a actual success before we see what we have in guys who haven't succeeded and aren't blue chip prospects like Gibby and Hughes were?

[Mike Sixel]

Frank Viola had an ERA over 5 his first two years. If you guys were in control, he would not have even been up in MN and learning how to pitch in the majors.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Punished?  Nope.  It is a choice that he made and it should have consequences.  If you are in a battle for a spot and you leave, it is natural that others will get ahead of him.   As is he will not pitch for 9 days after the last time he pitched.  And at this point both May and Mejia seem to be ahead of Berrios and they will be getting the ball every 5th day, so he will fall further behind.

Unless the consequences are positive that would be punishment...

 

Should Santiago, Vargas, and Rosario face these consequences as well? 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Unless the consequences are positive that would be punishment...

 

Should Santiago, Vargas, and Rosario face these consequences as well? 

 

Berrios is in a critical phase of development trying to transition from AAA wonderboy to MLB regular. This is an important time for him to be working on his adjustments he needs to make to be effective in the big leagues. Taking off to go pitch in the WBC, where he isn't getting critical instruction and feedback from his coaches and may not be building up the requisite arm strength he needs will naturally set him back. Berrios is also on the roster bubble, mostly because of those struggles, and by not competing or showing the coaches he made the necessary adjustment he's naturally put himself at a disadvantage in that 5th starter competition. That's his choice to make, and he made it.

 

Santiago is a vet and is what he is. Vargas and Rosario are more established and known quantities and don't have any serious competition for their roster spots (whether or not they should is another issue). So these guys going off to the WBC for a while isn't much of an impact as long as they are professional enough to get themselves ready.

[Boom Boom]

You know, if the Twins really wanted to, they could prevent Berrios from pitching in the WBC.

 

I don't think he had much chance to break camp regardless, but I won't criticize the guy for going.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Berrios is in a critical phase of development trying to transition from AAA wonderboy to MLB regular. This is an important time for him to be working on his adjustments he needs to make to be effective in the big leagues. Taking off to go pitch in the WBC, where he isn't getting critical instruction and feedback from his coaches and may not be building up the requisite arm strength he needs will naturally set him back. Berrios is also on the roster bubble, mostly because of those struggles, and by not competing or showing the coaches he made the necessary adjustment he's naturally put himself at a disadvantage in that 5th starter competition. That's his choice to make, and he made it.

 

Santiago is a vet and is what he is. Vargas and Rosario are more established and known quantities and don't have any serious competition for their roster spots (whether or not they should is another issue). So these guys going off to the WBC for a while isn't much of an impact as long as they are professional enough to get themselves ready.

We'll disagree on Vargas as an established and known quantity. We'll agree on the fact that they should face competition for their roster spots. 

 

It might be cliche but there really is nothing left for Berrios in AAA. He is spinning his wheels there. I see no way in which pitching against WBC lineups and trying to win games will derail his spring. Can he not make adjustments to be effective during those games? Will he not get instruction and feedback from coaches on his team? Are the Twins for some reason not allowed to monitor his progress during the WBC and take that into account? 

 

To me this feels like a cheap way to DQ him from a competition that should involve A LOT more players. 

[Vanimal46]

 

We'll disagree on Vargas as an established and known quantity. We'll agree on the fact that they should face competition for their roster spots. 

 

It might be cliche but there really is nothing left for Berrios in AAA. He is spinning his wheels there. I see no way in which pitching against WBC lineups and trying to win games will derail his spring. Can he not make adjustments to be effective during those games? Will he not get instruction and feedback from coaches on his team? Are the Twins for some reason not allowed to monitor his progress during the WBC and take that into account? 

 

To me this feels like a cheap way to DQ him from a competition that should involve A LOT more players. 

 

Agreed. He's also facing some of the best MLB talent at the WBC. I'll take him pitching against Manny Machado 3 times instead of Manny MayNotMakeIt any day. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

We'll disagree on Vargas as an established and known quantity. We'll agree on the fact that they should face competition for their roster spots. 

 

It might be cliche but there really is nothing left for Berrios in AAA. He is spinning his wheels there. I see no way in which pitching against WBC lineups and trying to win games will derail his spring. Can he not make adjustments to be effective during those games? Will he not get instruction and feedback from coaches on his team? Are the Twins for some reason not allowed to monitor his progress during the WBC and take that into account? 

 

To me this feels like a cheap way to DQ him from a competition that should involve A LOT more players. 

 

I agree that Vargas isn't an established major leaguer, I just meant that he kind of is what he is and we have a good idea of what we're going to get with him. He's 26 years old and has been up and down for a few years and is basically at sink-or-swim time in the major leagues.

 

As for Berrios, if he is making serious adjustments to his delivery then no, I don't think he'll get to work on that as well because his primary focus will be winning games. Not to mention that he won't get as many innings/appearances in WBC as he would in ST. I also don't think we want random coaches on his WBC team screwing with his delivery and mechanics (remember complaints about last year when every Joe Blow had access to him to give advice?). The Twins' coaches are in the best position to monitor him and provide feedback on his progress, and he can throw whatever pitch as much as he needs to instead of worrying about game results and situations dictating his pitching. What if he reverts to his old form he's comfortable with and gets blown up all spring? Even if he reverts and succeeds, then he comes back to us a mess and will have to go to AAA to start over again so he can learn to reliably get actual MLB hitters out.

[Thrylos]

 

Frank Viola had an ERA over 5 his first two years. If you guys were in control, he would not have even been up in MN and learning how to pitch in the majors.

 

The Twins did not have any better pitchers than him then.  They have several better than Berrios now.  That's the difference here.

When Santana sucked his second season he was sent to the minors to figure it out and he did...

[Kwak]

 

Do we really have to go through a prospect carousal to find out that all our pitching prospects aren't ready to be even average major leaguers yet? Look a at Gibby. Look at Hughes. Look at Santana. These were premium arms coming up who have been fairly pedestrian major leaguers. What are the odds that May, Berrios, Mejia, et al will be better than those guys at their peaks. Let alone early on. Hughes Gibby and Santana have had recent success. Better defense can help. A not 0-9 start will help. If we get to May or June and things are bad start looking. If May or Berrios had come up and killed it, they wouldn't be in this position. But they were called up before they were ready.

Some of these kids are victims to their own prospect ratings. We treat them like potential aces for no reason. Berrios is a AAA Ace. What is that in the majors?

Of course guys could develop. Happens occasionally. But it's not a great bet. A bet on Hughes or Gibby to rebound is a strong bet, imo. And we have a hedged bet if they don't bounce back. Then we can go get a hopefully more prepared prospect up.

If we have play them in the show in order to see what we have, we probably have crap. Do we need a year? Can't we see what we have in the guys with more/equal talent and a actual success before we see what we have in guys who haven't succeeded and aren't blue chip prospects like Gibby and Hughes were?

The "prospects" cited by most posters are guys who are products of a system that consistently produces "below average" pitching.  Why should they receive "a pass" having done little, nothing, or failure at the MLB level over men who have "been there" for a few years?  Would one season (or most likely much less than that) convince the FO (or my my posters) that "they have arrived"?  I think not.

 

Using the veterans, those time-tested and boring, is still a valid approach to begin the season.  Will these pitcher still be with the Twins 3-4 years from now?  Most teams experience turnover over a 3-4 period, so it is to be expected the Twins will also.  The call to arms (so to speak) is just as likely to have similar results to previous years--much fanfare and build-up and lots of failure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If he becomes a free agent, that's $42M in contract gone.

his contract is guaranteed. If he's a free agent, its over and above the contract paid by the Twins

[KirbyDome89]

 

 he can throw whatever pitch as much as he needs to instead of worrying about game results and situations dictating his pitching. 

I think if this is the case then he either is guaranteed a rotation spot or he is guaranteed to start the season at AAA. Unfortunately it looks like the latter is true, especially when you consider the Twins allowed him to pitch in the WBC this spring but denied his winter ball request. I can't see anybody who is actually fighting for a rotation spot not having to worry about game results and situational pitching.