Rotation "Set"

[kab21]

 

I've never understood this "based on his salary" issue for playing time. Once a player is signed his salary becomes a fixed expense like water for the playing field at Target Stadium. Unless committed player salaries are so high the team is pressed for cash (and with about $100 million is salaries, the Twins are not) then how much someone's salary is should not effect who is in the lineup, IMHO. The only decision should be the long term best interest of the Twins.

Does anyone think that long term Hughes is a major contributor to the Twin's success? Or are Berrios and May more likely to fit that criteria? Unless Hughes miraculously finds his fastball he should not be in the lineup. The Twins should be finding out at the ML level if one of their younger arms will be able to contribute long term.

Beside, any embarrassment over the Hughes contract falls on prior management.

The other factor is that players w/o contracts have options to go down. Once you cut a big contract then that player is no longer an option.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't know why anyone would be surprised about this.

Molitor has demonstrated a Gardy-like preference for veterans, and he's on the last year of his contract. If he's going to save his job he's got no time to throw Berrios out there to take lumps.

 

Berrios had his chance.  14 of them last season.  And he sucked: 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 1.869 WHIP

 

Worse than Santiago

Worse than Gibson

Worse than Hughes

Worse than Dean

Worse than Albers

Worse than Nolasco

Worse than Duffey

Worse than Milone

 

If Berrios who pitched worse than all of those, and apparently is not interested in staying with the Twins to fight for a spot in their rotation, deserves a spot, why any of the others (eg. Gibson, Hughes, Santiago) who pitched better than him, and are actually pitching for the Twins this Spring, should not?  How about Duffey?  How about Mejia?

 

Berrios is not a major league ready pitcher, and as a matter of fact, he is not one of the 5 best starters for the Twins right now.  Some day he will be.  Hopefully before the season ends.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I've never understood this "based on his salary" issue for playing time. Once a player is signed his salary becomes a fixed expense like water for the playing field at Target Stadium. Unless committed player salaries are so high the team is pressed for cash (and with about $100 million is salaries, the Twins are not) then how much someone's salary is should not effect who is in the lineup, IMHO. The only decision should be the long term best interest of the Twins.

Does anyone think that long term Hughes is a major contributor to the Twin's success? Or are Berrios and May more likely to fit that criteria? Unless Hughes miraculously finds his fastball he should not be in the lineup. The Twins should be finding out at the ML level if one of their younger arms will be able to contribute long term.

Beside, any embarrassment over the Hughes contract falls on prior management.

Again, I'm surprised Hughes was set this early but 1) he has been an effective ML pitcher before 2) the new FO seems willing to give him a shot and 3) he was injured last year. I personally think the injury isn't going to get better but giving him 5-6 starts isn't horrible, esp since Berrios isn't going to be around much. The starting five in April isn't as important as the starting five we have for most of the year.

[laloesch]

 

What would change for any of them if it was set in 2 weeks? I literally have no idea, hence my question.

 

I'm completely miffed as to why Molitor would do this this early.  I mean opening day is April 2nd?  That's just shy of 4 weeks.   I don't get the whole certainty argument.  We had the worst rotation in all of MLB baseball last year and they want to set the rotation now!  Are you freaking kidding me?  Not very bright IMO.

 

I want to see more starts from Santiago, Gibson and Hughes before setting anything!  Anything less is absolutely foolish.  What i find interesting is that it's down to May and Berrios again for the fifth spot without that many starts to back it up.  Paul Molitor must really not like Trevor May.  Didn't the FO say he WOULD BE A STARTER this season?  This seems to cast that into doubt.  Perhaps this is push back from Paul on this.  I look forward to 2018 when Mr. Molitor's contract is up.     

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm completely miffed as to why Molitor would do this this early.  I mean opening day is April 2nd?  That's just shy of 4 weeks.   I don't get the whole certainty argument.  We had the worst rotation in all of MLB baseball last year and they want to set the rotation now!  Are you freaking kidding me?  Not very bright IMO.

 

I want to see more starts from Santiago, Gibson and Hughes before setting anything!  Anything less is absolutely foolish.  What i find interesting is that it's down to May and Berrios again for the fifth spot without that many starts to back it up.  Paul Molitor must really not like Trevor May.  Didn't the FO say he WOULD BE A STARTER this season?  This seems to cast that into doubt.  Perhaps this is push back from Paul on this.  I look forward to 2018 when Mr. Molitor's contract is up.     

Agree on Molitor and May - but the FO seems to have put its foot down on this. I'm more worried about the rope Molitor gives him once the season starts. Remember how quickly he'd pull Meyer and Berrios early last season (while letting Milone pitch out of stuff)? Hopefully, May starts hot and we don't have to worry about this but I'm pretty concerned about Molitor affecting this team. But the FO also put Pickler in the dugout for a purpose and this might be the reason.

[laloesch]

 

Agree on Molitor and May - but the FO seems to have put its foot down on this. I'm more worried about the rope Molitor gives him once the season starts. Remember how quickly he'd pull Meyer and Berrios early last season (while letting Milone pitch out of stuff)? Hopefully, May starts hot and we don't have to worry about this but I'm pretty concerned about Molitor affecting this team. But the FO also put Pickler in the dugout for a purpose and this might be the reason.

 

Yes, agreed on both comments.  I don't get why Molitor yanks some guys so quickly while letting others toil away.  It wouldn't surpise me if one of the reasons Pickler was brought in from the "outside" was to keep a close eye on Molitor and not feel a sense of obligation / loyalty to the existing system of doing things.  Smart move by Falvey and Levine. 

[mikelink45]

Why bother with bringing in all the bodies to ST if we just set the rotation over the winter?  This is ridiculous.  If the "big four" prove to have the velocity, the skills, and composure to lead us to the promised land fine.  But compete!  If we are already posturing for opening day, a month away, we are wasting opportunities.  In the last six years our best has been a near .500 team, our worst 103 losses, and in the last six years to are 407 - 565, a pct of .419.  http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/history/year_by_year_results.jsp  and their pitching stats are easy to check out: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/pitchteam.shtml

 

I might also suggest that the Twins might like to revisit the fact that attendance has gone down steadily in all six years.

 

So, here is the ultimate question - why are these pitchers secure?  Why are they not worried about some young arm just shoving them out of the way? 

 

[Jham]

A few things.  

1) Phil Hughes is only 30 years old.  It's not like he's 38.  He was a much higher rated prospect than any of the kids, and he's actually done it at the MLB level.  Compare to May at 27.

2) The season is 162 games long.  Berrios, maybe even Gonsalves will get some time.  The rotation we break camp with will not be the rotation we end with.  

3) May is an injury risk who has a less than proven record as a starter and reliever.  Berrios track record is even more sordid. 3a) Berrios' minor league numbers were dominant, but not necessarily MLB dominant.  There are pitchers who cut through the minors with 10-12k/9.  These guys tend to be very good major leaguers.  Lots of guys put up good MLB numbers in the minors, and not surprisingly, can't replicate that level of success in the Majors.  I still think Berrios will be a nice pitcher, but he's not ready yet, and confidence is very, very important.  I think we May set him back last season by bringing him up before he was ready.

[laloesch]

 

A few things.  

1) Phil Hughes is only 30 years old.  It's not like he's 38.  He was a much higher rated prospect than any of the kids, and he's actually done it at the MLB level.  Compare to May at 27.

2) The season is 162 games long.  Berrios, maybe even Gonsalves will get some time.  The rotation we break camp with will not be the rotation we end with.  

3) May is an injury risk who has a less than proven record as a starter and reliever.  Berrios track record is even more sordid. 3a) Berrios' minor league numbers were dominant, but not necessarily MLB dominant.  There are pitchers who cut through the minors with 10-12k/9.  These guys tend to be very good major leaguers.  Lots of guys put up good MLB numbers in the minors, and not surprisingly, can't replicate that level of success in the Majors.  I still think Berrios will be a nice pitcher, but he's not ready yet, and confidence is very, very important.  I think we May set him back last season by bringing him up before he was ready.

 

I guess my thought is that we haven't seen enough of ANYONE (Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, May, Berrios, etc.) to make a decision.  The ONLY guy that should be a lock is Santana.  He has earned it.  The rest of those guys sucked so bad last season none of them deserve an "automatic lock".

[Vanimal46]

 

A few things.  

1) Phil Hughes is only 30 years old.  It's not like he's 38.  He was a much higher rated prospect than any of the kids, and he's actually done it at the MLB level.  Compare to May at 27.

2) The season is 162 games long.  Berrios, maybe even Gonsalves will get some time.  The rotation we break camp with will not be the rotation we end with.  

3) May is an injury risk who has a less than proven record as a starter and reliever.  Berrios track record is even more sordid. 3a) Berrios' minor league numbers were dominant, but not necessarily MLB dominant.  There are pitchers who cut through the minors with 10-12k/9.  These guys tend to be very good major leaguers.  Lots of guys put up good MLB numbers in the minors, and not surprisingly, can't replicate that level of success in the Majors.  I still think Berrios will be a nice pitcher, but he's not ready yet, and confidence is very, very important.  I think we May set him back last season by bringing him up before he was ready.

 

He's so far past his prospect rankings that it shouldn't make any difference... If he doesn't have the velocity anymore, doesn't matter if he's 25, 30, or 38. He'll get crushed. 

 

We realize that the rotation is not going to be the same at the end of the year as it is today... The question is why defer to the same rotation of veterans when they were historically bad last season?

 

May was trending in the right direction as a starter until he got Pelfrey'd. In regards to Berrios, many, many rookie pitchers last year got crushed. I'm not going to think less of him as a result. He should be on the MLB team for a lion's share of time this year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually May's record as a starter is pretty good -- a solid debut at AAA in 2014, and a league-average-ish first half of 2015 to kick off his first full MLB season.  Unfortunately that's the most recent starting data point we have for him, through no fault of his own.  I'd probably "lock" him into a starting spot this spring before Hughes.

[laloesch]

 

Why bother with bringing in all the bodies to ST if we just set the rotation over the winter?  This is ridiculous.  If the "big four" prove to have the velocity, the skills, and composure to lead us to the promised land fine.  But compete!  If we are already posturing for opening day, a month away, we are wasting opportunities.  In the last six years our best has been a near .500 team, our worst 103 losses, and in the last six years to are 407 - 565, a pct of .419.  http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/history/year_by_year_results.jsp  and their pitching stats are easy to check out: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/pitchteam.shtml

 

I might also suggest that the Twins might like to revisit the fact that attendance has gone down steadily in all six years.

 

So, here is the ultimate question - why are these pitchers secure?  Why are they not worried about some young arm just shoving them out of the way? 

 

Stat for Stat last years squad was the worst pitching staff we've seen in 20 years (since 1996).  That's saying A LOT!  That was one of the dark ages (mid 90's) for this franchise.  I'm sure there were others but i'm not old enough to remember anything before 1985.

[laloesch]

 

I'm a bit surprised that they are set on Hughes but the other three were pretty clear.  I think May gets the fifth spot (FO over rules Molitor on that) and Berrios starts the year at AAA along with Duffey.  

 

Another thing.  Last year Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made it clear that they preferred (right or wrong) that May be used as RP in a setup role instead of starting.  

 

Fast forward to the new regime and Falvey assured Trevor May that the club "pictures him as an every-fifth-day pitcher," and that Falvey "seems really sincere about it."  The question is did Paul get the message or is the new FO going to have to push back and say no no we aren't going to play favorites here and name starters 4 weeks ahead of opening day despite the fact that no-one has proven anything yet and we have one other guy (Mejia) also in the mix.  This will be a real test of whose really in charge.  If I was GM i'd tell Molly to retract that statement about a rotation being set. 

[d-mac]

 

There are $42 million reasons you shouldn't be surprised at Hughes being in the rotation.  

 

If it were my decision he'd be the one going to the bullpen, but its not my money... 

 

What happened to the no scholarships rule? 

[Deduno Abides]

At least two of the "core four" could likely be DFA'd today and would go unclaimed - Hughes and Santiago. Last year, Milone was given the same starting opportunity, was outrighted, went to AAA after nobody wanted his salary, then was again available to be brought back up. Hughes and Santiago would be in the same boat, but instead they're being given scholarships. To announce it this early, on a team with this track record, that suggests that management thinks the next candidates just aren't good.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At least two of the "core four" could likely be DFA'd today and would go unclaimed - Hughes and Santiago. Last year, Milone was given the same starting opportunity, was outrighted, went to AAA after nobody wanted his salary, then was again available to be brought back up. Hughes and Santiago would be in the same boat, but instead they're being given scholarships. To announce it this early, on a team with this track record, that suggests that management thinks the next candidates just aren't good.

 

Disagree. If you don't have to pay them real money, they'd 100% be claimed. Especially Hughes.

 

IMO, Hughes is the PERFECT RP candidate at this point. I really think he could be quite good in RP. I hope he can start, but I am very confident he could be a good to very good in the bullpen.

[gunnarthor]

 

At least two of the "core four" could likely be DFA'd today and would go unclaimed - Hughes and Santiago. Last year, Milone was given the same starting opportunity, was outrighted, went to AAA after nobody wanted his salary, then was again available to be brought back up. Hughes and Santiago would be in the same boat, but instead they're being given scholarships. To announce it this early, on a team with this track record, that suggests that management thinks the next candidates just aren't good.

I don't think Hughes is in the same boat but Santiago might be, although he might not be either based on his service time.  Someone smarter might know how that works better than I. 

[Deduno Abides]

Disagree. If you don't have to pay them real money, they'd 100% be claimed. Especially Hughes.

 

IMO, Hughes is the PERFECT RP candidate at this point. I really think he could be quite good in RP. I hope he can start, but I am very confident he could be a good to very good in the bullpen.

Mike, you think someone would take Hughes' contract?

 

Also, if they do, that would probably be good.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Berrios had his chance.  14 of them last season.  And he sucked: 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 1.869 WHIP

 

Worse than Santiago

Worse than Gibson

Worse than Hughes

Worse than Dean

Worse than Albers

Worse than Nolasco

Worse than Duffey

Worse than Milone

 

If Berrios who pitched worse than all of those, and apparently is not interested in staying with the Twins to fight for a spot in their rotation, deserves a spot, why any of the others (eg. Gibson, Hughes, Santiago) who pitched better than him, and are actually pitching for the Twins this Spring, should not?  How about Duffey?  How about Mejia?

 

Berrios is not a major league ready pitcher, and as a matter of fact, he is not one of the 5 best starters for the Twins right now.  Some day he will be.  Hopefully before the season ends.

I haven't seen anybody argue that he was good last season, but do you think those numbers are indicative of the pitcher he actually is? Do you really believe he is a worse pitcher than any of those that you listed? I don't. I have no problem with him earning a rotation spot. He didn't pitch well at all last year, but neither did a few of the "locks," which is the point most are making. 

 

He is playing for Puerto Rico in the WBC; saying he doesn't care enough to be in ST is completely unfair. As a side note, Santiago is on the roster as well, so he shouldn't receive credit for caring. Vargas and Rosario are also members of the team. 

 

His time spent at AAA and the numbers he put up there would suggest its time for him to pitch in the majors, ie MLB ready.  

[Deduno Abides]

Pitcher 1, age 22: 58.1 innings, 5.4 W/9, 6.2 FIP.

Pitcher 2, age 23: 67.2 innings, 5.6 W/9, 6.5 FIP.

 

Note that Pitcher 2 was worth 4 fWAR the next year.

 

Any guesses?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, you think someone would take Hughes' contract?

Also, if they do, that would probably be good.

 

They don't have to take his contract.....if the Twins take action and cut him, they eat his contract, and he's a FA. I think. I could be wrong on that.....

[alarp33]

 

They don't have to take his contract.....if the Twins take action and cut him, they eat his contract, and he's a FA. I think. I could be wrong on that.....

 

IIRC, if they claim him, yes they would take his contract. So he would go unclaimed.  But, with his service time I believe he could refuse his assignment and become a free agent

[Mike Sixel]

 

IIRC, if they claim him, yes they would take his contract. So he would go unclaimed.  But, with his service time I believe he could refuse his assignment and become a free agent

 

Which is what I was trying to say, yes, but said it wrong....

[Deduno Abides]

IIRC, if they claim him, yes they would take his contract. So he would go unclaimed.  But, with his service time I believe he could refuse his assignment and become a free agent

If he becomes a free agent, that's $42M in contract gone.

[alarp33]

 

If he becomes a free agent, that's $42M in contract gone.

 

No - the Twins would owe him that money

[d-mac]

 

That works when you have an ace at the front of the rotation, or two very good starters in the 1 and 2 postitions.  Pitching wins ballgames and the Twins do not have a front of the rotation piece at this time.  Therefore we cannot afford a back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation.  We need a player or players who need evaluation over the next two years, to see if they are the future or we need to find other pitchers to fill these spots, you cannot wait until next year for this or you will see more of the SSS comments.

 

A back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation is better than a Vogelsong retread or sub-replacement level player regardless of who is starting at the top. So I fail to see your point. 

[gunnarthor]

If the Twins remove him from the 40 man roster (i.e. cut him), Hughes can refuse the assignment to the minors and sign with another team. The Twins would be required to pay him the difference between his contract and the new one. So if he signed with Atlanta for the league minimum, we'd save 550k or so while paying most of his salary.  If Santiago has 5 years of service time, which he does, he can also refuse an assignment and sign with other teams.

 

The confusion comes from waivers where a team can make a claim for a guy on waivers but takes the risk of getting stuck with the players contract.

[Willihammer]

I wouldn't cut Hughes either but his role in the rotation shouldn't be a lock at this point. We don't have similar contract issues handcuffing the bullpen.

[Deduno Abides]

No - the Twins would owe him that money

Forget it. Looked it up. You're right.

[Thrylos]

 

If the Twins remove him from the 40 man roster (i.e. cut him), Hughes can refuse the assignment to the minors and sign with another team. The Twins would be required to pay him the difference between his contract and the new one. So if he signed with Atlanta for the league minimum, we'd save 550k or so while paying most of his salary.  If Santiago has 5 years of service time, which he does, he can also refuse an assignment and sign with other teams.

 

 

Agreed re: Hughes.  However, since Santiago is on an arbitration-agreed contract that is not guaranteed before the Twins break camp, they can cut him in March and pay only 25% of what he was to be owed ($2M) for the year and call it a day