Article: Haley Could Fill Essential Role In Twins' Bullpen

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins won't be putting their best twenty five players on the Opening Day roster. That's never quite how it happens. Instead, much of how the final few roster spots are decided comes down to how the players fit into specific roles or whether or not a guy can be sent down to the minors without risk of losing him.

 

The Rule 5 Draft, one of the most obscure and convoluted things in all of sports, can give players what equates to a golden ticket into the big leagues. The Twins ended up with Justin Haley once the dust settled on this year's draft (it's a long story), meaning they get to keep him just so long as he's on the 25-man roster (or the DL). Haley comes over from the Red Sox, where he put up very similar 2016 numbers to another recent Twins acquisition.

 

Player A: 3.14 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, opponents hit .241/.286/.366

Player B: 3.01 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, opponents hit .225/.291/.345

 

Player A is Adalberto Mejia, Player B is Haley. Mejia is the better prospect because he's two years younger, but Haley's probably a better bet to be of use to the Twins in 2017. Also, one big advantage to a Rule 5 draftee is development gets tossed out the window. The Twins wouldn't want to use Mejia as a long reliever because it would derail his development as a starting pitcher. With Haley, they can't send him to the minors for further seasoning as a starter. It's now or never.Yes, it's possible the Twins could try to work out a trade with the Red Sox (they traded for Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond in 2010 in order to be able to send him down to Rochester), but I don't see that as very likely in this case. I doubt Boston would be interested in cash considerations or lower level minor leaguers; they're flush with cash and trying to compete. Sure, they exposed Haley to the Rule 5 Draft, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't like to have him back if given the opportunity.

 

Beyond anything else, the biggest reason I feel it would be wise for the Twins to make room on the roster for Haley is he can provide valuable insurance to the rotation and protection for the bullpen. Here's how I imagine the pitching staff shaking out right now:

 

Rotation

Ervin Santana

Kyle Gibson

Hector Santiago

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

 

Bullpen (assuming Glen Perkins starts on the DL)

Brandon Kintzler

Ryan Pressly

J.T. Chargois

Matt Belisle

Taylor Rogers

Justin Haley

Buddy Boshers

 

Neither Gibson nor Santiago are known for pitching deep into games, and both Hughes (recovering from injuries) and May (transitioning from he bullpen) aren't exactly guys you want to count on to eat innings out of the gate. This staff needs a reliever who can be called upon to throw multiple innings early in games, and I'd rather not see another promising young starter moved to the pen (like May was) or a reliever miscast into a role he's not suited for (like Michael Tonkin was).

 

Basically what I'm saying is Haley should be this year's version of J.R. Graham, the Twins Rule 5 pick in 2015. It's tough to point to a guy who had a 4.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP and say he was a valuable member of a pitching staff, but Graham throwing 63 2/3 innings was essential to keeping the rest of the bullpen fresh that season. He even made one emergency spot start.

 

Over his 38 relief appearances, Graham entered a game prior to the fifth inning 12 times, he pitched in multiple innings 25 times and in 20 of his appearances there was at least a five-run difference in the score (one way or the other) when he entered the game. He was basically the definition of a mop-up man.

 

Another big thing to remember concerning the Opening Day roster is it can change the next week, the next series, hell, the next day if need be. Bringing Haley north with the big club doesn't necessarily mean committing a roster spot to him for the entire season. If he doesn't pan out, no big loss. You basically rented him from Boston in order to gobble up a bunch of low-leverage innings early in the season and you send him back once you're convinced he's nothing special. No harm done.

 

Some people may take issue with Jose Berrios not being included on the Opening Day roster. While he has nothing left to prove in the minors in terms of performance -- he's dominated every level -- he does have plenty to work on. At this point I'd rather he work out the kinks in Rochester, where guys like he, Tyler Duffy and Mejia would stay stretched out to serve as rotation insurance. Berrios was the youngest AL pitcher to start a game last season, so it's important to keep in mind he's still way ahead of the curve.

 

Leaving Tonkin off the roster would mean exposing him to waivers, but I think there's more of a chance that Tonkin would clear waivers than there's a chance the Twins could work out a suitable trade for Haley with Boston. But I do not view Haley and Tonkin as being in direct competition for the same spot. There needs to be a long man behind this rotation, and we saw last season, Tonkin cannot thrive in that role.

 

Haley making the 25-man roster wouldn't be "blocking" any of the higher upside relievers. Would you rather see a guy like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi or (insert your favorite of the Twins 46 relief prospects here) getting abused in a mop-up role in the majors or pitching in the back end of the bullpen in the minors? To me, Haley's primary competition is against the guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Nick Tepesch, not any of the traditional one-inning relief guys.

 

Is Justin Haley one of the Twins' best dozen or so pitchers? No, probably not. Is he an excellent fit to be the last man in the bullpen? Absolutely.

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Good insight as to why we should never sweat the opening day roster.

 

Fact is, with all the inning limits and arm concerns, if you can use a rental for $150K and get "x" number of innings at close to a respectable ERA, why wouldn't you?

 

At the end of the day, it's the equivalent of benefitting -- avoiding costs -- by using some other corporation's asset.

 

AKA, the American way.

[Blackjack]

Good analysis Tom!!!

[HitInAPinch]

"Neither Gibson nor Santiago are known for pitching deep into games, and both Hughes (recovering from injuries) and May (transitioning from he bullpen) aren't exactly guys you want to count on to eat innings out of the gate."

 

4 - 5ths of the rotation.  Not really awe inspiring.  Aw something else is more like it  :-( 

 

If the Twins need to carry more in the bullpen again, why not put Berrios there and get him reps against MLB hitters?  Seems to make more sense to me than sending him down.

 

[USAFChief]

I had higher hopes for the top rule 5 pick than "potentially expendable mop up guy."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"Neither Gibson nor Santiago are known for pitching deep into games, and both Hughes (recovering from injuries) and May (transitioning from he bullpen) aren't exactly guys you want to count on to eat innings out of the gate."

 

4 - 5ths of the rotation. Not really awe inspiring. Aw something else is more like it :-(

 

If the Twins need to carry more in the bullpen again, why not put Berrios there and get him reps against MLB hitters? Seems to make more sense to me than sending him down.

because you need Berrios stretched out. Hughes is coming off surgery, May had back issues last year, Gibson lost some significant time last year as well. Santana was healthy last year, but getting advanced in his career. At best you only need one starter on the Rochester shuttle, but will at points need two. If Berrios and Duffey are in the Pen and the rotation is Santana, Gibson, Santiago, May, Hughes. All you got left on the 40 man is Mejia. Are you going to put R. Rosario and Romero on the active roster? I'm not.

 

Meanwhile May, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes are all making short starts. Duffey and Berrios are not exactly workhorses (yet) either. Hughes circa 2014 was, but coming off injury he probably won't be logging 180 innings this year. How do you keep from destroying the bullpen?

 

I like the idea of a long man for this Twins team. I like the idea of two long men on this team, and would rather Hughes be in the pen with Haley and both of them pitch multiple innings w/ Berrios in the rotation, but that necessitates a 13 man pitching staff to start the season.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Sconnie

[DocBauer]

I agree on Haley and that his competition is someone like Vogelsong and not Tonkin or a similar shorter IP RP. Could he end up as a starter still? Yes, but this would be his best role for the time being, and the best fit for the team.

 

I appreciated the comments on Berrios. I want him in the rotation and believe he will be there sooner rather than later. There are always injuries, trade possibilities, etc. He is young and still working on tweaking a few things. And sometimes, whether we like it or not, there can be a numbers crunch coming out of the gate to begin the season. "Youngest pitcher to start a game in the AL last season" speaks volumes to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How valuable is this role when Ryan Vogelsong could also fill it?

 

Or JR Graham himself, who would have had the added benefit of being optionable -- meaning you could swap him out for a fresh arm after a long outing or period of heavy use? Given that, it is not even clear that a Rule 5 guy is particularly good for this role -- if you have to use him for 3 innings one day, he is basically unavailable the next day, while a normal young pitcher without Rule 5 restrictions could be swapped out for a fresh arm.

[Vanimal46]

Or, Phil Hughes could fill the role of potentially expendable mop up guy and the Twins could get Berrios back in the picture. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

I had higher hopes for the top rule 5 pick than "potentially expendable mop up guy."

There's upside in Haley I didn't explore in the article. He sits lower as a starter, but he's touched 95 in the past. If he can maintain an uptick in velocity as a reliever and weed out is fourth (or even third) best pitch, you might have something worth getting excited about. I also feel like he could hold his own as a fifth starter, I just don't see an avenue to that role for him.

[laloesch]

I think given how poorly this team pitched last season a 13 man pitching staff is a necessary evil.

[gocgo]

Tonkin should clear waivers, but if he doesn't no sweat off my baseballs.

[clutterheart]

I wish the Twins had better options instead of Gibson and Santiago.   Neither of them deserve to be considered a lock to be a major league starter.    

 

Wouldn't it be something if a guy like Gonsalves took advantage of the fact that guys are pitching in the WBC, and used his extra looks to force a spot onto the rotation?

 

The chances of that happening are very, very, very low but it would make the season so much more fun to not watch the same guys fail every five days.  

 

[laloesch]

 

I wish the Twins had better options instead of Gibson and Santiago.   Neither of them deserve to be considered a lock to be a major league starter.    

 

Wouldn't it be something if a guy like Gonsalves took advantage of the fact that guys are pitching in the WBC, and used his extra looks to force a spot onto the rotation?

 

The chances of that happening are very, very, very low but it would make the season so much more fun to not watch the same guys fail every five days.  

 

I would like to think that is a possibility but given he's only pitched up to AA it's not at all likely to happen.

[Mike Sixel]

I too think it would be better if this person had options, and could be swapped out with another pitcher or two. The bullpen, imo, should be made up of a couple of elite guys, and 6-8 guys that can be swapped back and forth to AAA.

[mikelink45]

Why does every article on Twins pitching make this season seem so depressing - everytime I look at one of the rotations with so many replacement level and below starters, hangers on like Vogelsong and Tepesch, returning injured arms like Perkins and Hughes, head scratchers like Santiago, and statements about all that Berrios has to learn (who is teaching him) - I am looking for some light somewhere.

Then we justify Haley because we are admitting our rotation is so inept we need a mop up guy, maybe two to just soak up innings - would not matter if the era was in double digits.  

 

Where is the hope?  Wait until next year?  Its only been five years, what's one or two more?    Something has to change.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I had higher hopes for the top rule 5 pick than "potentially expendable mop up guy."

 

I get that, but I also wonder why. By definition, the Rule 5 is a draft of players that another team didn't put on their 40 man roster (much less their 25 man roster). 

[KirbyDome89]

"Would you rather see a guy like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi or (insert your favorite of the Twins 46 relief prospects here) getting abused in a mop-up role in the majors or pitching in the back end of the bullpen in the minors?"

 

I'm not sure I understand where this argument is coming from. Is a a guarantee that any of the above options are destined to struggle through a sharp learning curve? I think not, but that is what seems to be implied and if that is the case, then wouldn't you rather have them take their lumps in a season like this? 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Why does every article on Twins pitching make this season seem so depressing - everytime I look at one of the rotations with so many replacement level and below starters, hangers on like Vogelsong and Tepesch, returning injured arms like Perkins and Hughes, head scratchers like Santiago, and statements about all that Berrios has to learn (who is teaching him) - I am looking for some light somewhere.

Then we justify Haley because we are admitting our rotation is so inept we need a mop up guy, maybe two to just soak up innings - would not matter if the era was in double digits.  

 

Where is the hope?  Wait until next year?  Its only been five years, what's one or two more?    Something has to change.

Midseason. I think the first two months of this season will be all about the new front office trying to get this team back to respectability and figuring out whether or not this team has any chance to be a serious contender in 2018. If they decide that's not realistic, I expect an epic fire sale and for Molitor to get canned (or resign).

 

I'm not sure the pitching would initially be any better after a roster makeover, but it would certainly be a lot more interesting/young.

[Tom Froemming]

 

"Would you rather see a guy like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi or (insert your favorite of the Twins 46 relief prospects here) getting abused in a mop-up role in the majors or pitching in the back end of the bullpen in the minors?"

 

I'm not sure I understand where this argument is coming from. Is a a guarantee that any of the above options are destined to struggle through a sharp learning curve? I think not, but that is what seems to be implied and if that is the case, then wouldn't you rather have them take their lumps in a season like this? 

By getting abused, I mean in terms of their usage, not getting abused by major league hitters. If you're down more than five runs early, sometimes you need a guy you can toss out there and basically say "we gotta get 2-3 innings out of you no matter what happens." 

 

A lot of bullpen guys throw multiple innings in the minors, so maybe I'm more nervous about over usage than I should be, but I'd rather risk Haley than one of those arms.

[Thrylos]

I think that Haley has higher ceiling than that.  Really.  His floor is a mop up guy, which might be higher than Hector Santiago's or Phil Hughes's this season.  Both of these guys have problems so far and I would not write their names in stone for the rotation.   Hughes admitted that he has not been throwing at 100% (and will not for another 2 starts) and his FB is sitting at 87-88 now.  Will figure out more about Hughes in a couple weeks.  Saturday is really big for Santiago, if he repeats his first start debacle before he leaves the team for 3 weeks, he is the one who at best will be the mop up guy (his contract is not guaranteed, thus the "at best", the Twins have other options with him.)

Edited March 3, 2017 by Thrylos

[Vanimal46]

 

By getting abused, I mean in terms of their usage, not getting abused by major league hitters. If you're down more than five runs early, sometimes you need a guy you can toss out there and basically say "we gotta get 2-3 innings out of you no matter what happens." 

 

A lot of bullpen guys throw multiple innings in the minors, so maybe I'm more nervous about over usage than I should be, but I'd rather risk Haley than one of those arms.

 

Haley's in the same age bracket as the other prospects... We're getting to that point where Burdi, Melotakis, Reed, Hildenberger are no longer spring chickens. Let's call them up and give them a chance. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

By getting abused, I mean in terms of their usage, not getting abused by major league hitters. If you're down more than five runs early, sometimes you need a guy you can toss out there and basically say "we gotta get 2-3 innings out of you no matter what happens." 

 

A lot of bullpen guys throw multiple innings in the minors, so maybe I'm more nervous about over usage than I should be, but I'd rather risk Haley than one of those arms.

Gotcha, the innings angle makes much more sense. 

 

Given Molitors bullpen usage I would say you have reason to worry. Honestly I would go with the "Pick em," group for reasons already stated; you have a revolving door available if usage or ineffective become issues. 

[bird]

 

I had higher hopes for the top rule 5 pick than "potentially expendable mop up guy."

 

To be fair, though, we have to acknowledge that the talent level has been underwhelming since the pool was shrunk. We're not seeing the Darren O'Days and Hector Rodons with regularity, and this type would represent our highest hopes. The last two Rule 5 pitchers to stick for a season were named Joe Biagini and Matt Bowman. So maybe Justin Haley is as good as it gets these days?

[Mike Sixel]

 

To be fair, though, we have to acknowledge that the talent level has been underwhelming since the pool was shrunk. We're not seeing the Darren O'Days and Hector Rodons with regularity, and this type would represent our highest hopes. The last two Rule 5 pitchers to stick for a season were named Joe Biagini and Matt Bowman. So maybe Justin Haley is as good as it gets these days?

 

Agreed, I expect NOTHING from this group of players ever again. Anything you get is bonus.

 

I do agree, they need someone to fill this kind of role. I'd just prefer it be someone you can move to the minors if/when needed.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I have a question – what can you do with Hughes or Santiago if they don't make the rotation and you don't want to put the bullpen? Is there an option other than a trade? Do they both have to be exposed to waivers?  For example,  if Hughes isn't ready and is still throwing 87 – 88 MPH at the end of Spring Training  does the team have the option to simply send him to AAA or do we have to put him on the DL  and then have it pitching rehabilitation start somewhere? I'm just wondering if the only real options are simply releasing Hughes or Santiago or keeping them in the rotation and there is no other way to go.  

Since Hughes and Santiago have more than 5 years of MLB service time, they can refuse a demotion to the minors and elect to become free agents instead.

 

Since, as Seth explained earlier this week, Santiago's contract isn't fully guaranteed until he's added to the 25-man roster, I'd think the team would just release him.

 

Hughes, on the other hand, does have a guaranteed contract. I think "hiding" him on the DL to start the year would be a much more likely option the Twins would pursue if they're not interested in putting him in the Opening Day rotation.

[alarp33]

 

The Twins wouldn't want to use Mejia as a long reliever because it would derail his development as a starting pitcher. 


 

 

Yeah, I would hate for the Twins to derail the development of another young left hander by starting him off in a bullpen clean-up for a year or two... 

 

 

(For the record I am totally kidding, and not calling Mejia the next Santana)

Edited March 3, 2017 by alarp33

[IndianaTwin]

Isn't this the perfect role for Nolasco? 

 

Oh wait, he's not here anymore. 

 

(Sorry, it's been a while since I've read any Nolasco comments -- it just doesn't seem like Twins Daily without one from time to time.)

[bird]

 

Why does every article on Twins pitching make this season seem so depressing - everytime I look at one of the rotations with so many replacement level and below starters, hangers on like Vogelsong and Tepesch, returning injured arms like Perkins and Hughes, head scratchers like Santiago, and statements about all that Berrios has to learn (who is teaching him) - I am looking for some light somewhere.

Then we justify Haley because we are admitting our rotation is so inept we need a mop up guy, maybe two to just soak up innings - would not matter if the era was in double digits.  

 

Where is the hope?  Wait until next year?  Its only been five years, what's one or two more?    Something has to change.

 

 

You're absolutely spot on. I see little immediate hope myself. The hope will be for the most part in Chattanooga's rotation, in the quick insertion of Berrios into the rotation, in a fast and steady progression at the MLB level by May and Berrios, and in the readiness of Mejia, Duffey, and/or Gonsalves to step in and acceptably fill the role of back-end starter.

 

I think anyone investing a great deal of hope in the resurgence of Hughes or even positive regression (let alone improvement) from Gibson is risking disappointment. Santiago? Blah.

Edited March 3, 2017 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

Agreed, I expect NOTHING from this group of players ever again. Anything you get is bonus.

 

I do agree, they need someone to fill this kind of role. I'd just prefer it be someone you can move to the minors if/when needed.

 

 

I'm not terribly concerned about that one instance of inflexibility. Frankly, I'm practically hoping for a 4-pitcher shuttle from Rochester to the rotation, and hope it would be a one-way ticket most of the time. This team is caught in a bad spot IMO. While they won't compete on a sustained basis until they upgrade the ceilings of their top three starters, they don't have prospects who appear ready to reach their better ceilings for a couple of years. In the meantime Falvey has a delicate dance ahead of him. I'm hoping he has the option to accept a big overpay for Santana at the deadline because it's offered and because Berrios, May, and one or two others now in the minors (Romero or Jay?) are shining.

 

If the relief staff isn't on a shuttle system, we're in trouble. We absolutely have to get at least two real gems out of that group that includes Shaggy, Burdi, Melo, Reed, etc. 

Edited March 3, 2017 by birdwatcher