Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 2.0

[Deduno Abides]

Pretty reasonable, except I expect Giminez to be the backup catcher unless Murphy or Garver are impressive this spring. If they aren't, whoever does well in Rochester will have a chance to supplant Giminez during the season.

 

Also, never thought I'd say this, but Boshers seemed to have a pretty good year last year, including one of the better rates of inherited runners scored, so he might have a better shot than expected.

 

Finally, see him when Perkins?

[Doomtints]

Very good analysis.

 

I think Vogelsong is very much in the mix because it will be hard for the Twins to say with a straight face that the other guys are better. Who he would replace from your list I don't know. It will be a tough decision.

[Dr. Evil]

What are the chances of Vielma getting the shortstop position just for his defense?

[Vanimal46]

 

What are the chances of Vielma getting the shortstop position just for his defense?

This year? ~5% chance. Adrianza would be the default option if they want a glove first SS. 

[Mike Sixel]

What are the chances of Vielma getting the shortstop position just for his defense?

Need three injuries and improved hitting, so, nearly zero, imo.

[jimbo92107]

Hughes needs to go to the pen as a setup or closer. He can't go a full season anymore as a starter. He'll break down in the first month. 

[Doomtints]

 

This year? ~5% chance. Adrianza would be the default option if they want a glove first SS. 

 

And probably 5% in any year going forward. Vielma can't hit. If he is on the MLB roster it is because the team is having major depth problems. Again.

[Doomtints]

 

Hughes needs to go to the pen as a setup or closer. He can't go a full season anymore as a starter. He'll break down in the first month. 

 

I disagree. I think he has to be a starter just to see if that surgery he had was as pointless as I suspect it was. The Twins (and all of baseball) should figure out if they should be paying for this sort of thing in the future.

 

Besides, there will be plenty of stories about how he kept the rib his doctors removed if he has a string of decent games. Maybe we will even get to see it. Maybe we would even get rib bobbleheads if Hughes regains his mojo.

 

Edited February 21, 2017 by Doomtints

[Dr. Evil]

 

I disagree. I think he has to be a starter just to see if that surgery he had was as pointless as I suspect it was. The Twins (and all of baseball) should figure out if they should be paying for this sort of thing in the future.

 

Besides, there will be plenty of stories about how he kept the rib his doctors removed if he has a string of decent games. Maybe we will even get to see it. Maybe we would even get rib bobbleheads if Hughes regains his mojo.

That would be totally humorous if he pulled out the rib and spiked it on the field after a complete game shutout!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Isn't there a better option in the OF than Grossman, whom you have said "may be the worst defensive OF I've seen in a Twins' uniform"? Is it more valuable to hit LF pitching and play terrible defense in the OF, or are you looking at Grossman being a DH and pinch hitter against LH pitching? How valuable is good defense in LF or RF every 5th or 6th game? Is there a way to measure this conundrum?.

[DocBauer]

What about Polanco leading off instead of Buxton? I'd bet on Polanco's on-base skills and strike zone control right now.

 

I know the prevailing thought is to have Mauer hit 2nd with Grossman doing so against LHP, playing some OF and DH. But I have also wondered about some combination of Buxton and Polanco hitting 1 & 2 with the Mauer/Grossman combination lower in the krder, possibly 6th or 7th to perpetuate and inning with their OB skill and to help set up the bottom of the order better.

[DocBauer]

Isn't there a better option in the OF than Grossman, whom you have said "may be the worst defensive OF I've seen in a Twins' uniform"? Is it more valuable to hit LF pitching and play terrible defense in the OF, or are you looking at Grossman being a DH and pinch hitter against LH pitching? How valuable is good defense in LF or RF every 5th or 6th game? Is there a way to measure this conundrum?.

 

One of the various invited OF in camp currently, or a waiver wire pickup during ST could very easily become the team's true 4th OF, IMO, replacing any thought of DanSan as the possible "13th" position player.

[D.C Twins]

There HAS to be a better 4th OF in here or out there or somewhere than Grossman and DanSan. I tend to agree with those who value defense in a 4th outfielder.

 

Wouldn't it be great if Granite progressed sooner rather than later!

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I really hope DanSan won't be on the Twins' roster this spring after ST.  Could we trade Grossman? I mean somebody out there would probably like a player who can hit lefties, right?

[D.C Twins]

I would like to see Dozier batting 5th behind Sano at the beginning of the year. The line up protection may help get Sano out of the gates better (which to me is the BIG priority) .

 

Dozier is more experienced and has proven he can supply power without line up protection.

 

As long as Kepler demonstrates progress and does not implode in his second season, I think he would actually fit well in the 3 spot behind planco and mauer (A lot of 'ifs' I know, but tis the year for experiments!)

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I know the prevailing thought is to have Mauer hit 2nd with Grossman doing so against LHP, playing some OF and DH. But I have also wondered about some combination of Buxton and Polanco hitting 1 & 2 with the Mauer/Grossman combination lower in the krder, possibly 6th or 7th to perpetuate and inning with their OB skill and to help set up the bottom of the order better.

I mean I like the thinking here and the hope is buxton and polanco will be a great 1 & 2 someday, but isn't the point of the 1&2 spots to get on base so when dozier/Sano hit bombs there's guys on base.

 

Also I don't have a problem with grossman as our 4th outfielder. It's been said before on here that when he was with Houston he was an average fielder so I'm hoping he improves this year. Plus we have 3 good defensive outfielders playing everyday so I have no problem with a guy that'll play once or twice a week being below average defensively if he hits. Let granite develop and come up when he is ready.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Ryan Vogelsong sported a 4.53 FIP and a 1.467 WHIP in 2015.

In 2016 he featured a 5.0 FIP and a 1.457 WHIP.

 

He is this year's Pat Dean. Not terrible, but not a SP on a good team.

[jimbo92107]

 

I disagree. I think he has to be a starter just to see if that surgery he had was as pointless as I suspect it was. The Twins (and all of baseball) should figure out if they should be paying for this sort of thing in the future.

 

Besides, there will be plenty of stories about how he kept the rib his doctors removed if he has a string of decent games. Maybe we will even get to see it. Maybe we would even get rib bobbleheads if Hughes regains his mojo.

Hughes has seen his velocity drop significantly over the past few years. Maybe it was due to injuries, but it is also pretty well established that pitchers really do simply lose their velocity as they enter their thirties, with very few exceptions. All I'm doing is projecting based on historical trends league-wide. The best use of a guy like Hughes tends to be as a setup man. Fewer pitches means he doesn't have to pace himself for seven innings, so maybe he gets a few mph back over 20 pitches. I would rather have an effective setup guy than another completely mediocre starter that is likely to break down before July.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Seth, I cannot see Garver making the team out of ST, and that is coming from one of his biggest fans on this board. I've got to think that will most likely be JRM unless he shows this spring that last year wasn't a fluke. Even if JRM shows he's not the option, I've got to think Giminez is above Garver. No doubt that Garver is the future, but I think a few more months in AAA will help him. 

[Dr. Evil]

There has been some coverage of Gibson using some new training drills to get ready for the season(using a bouncy ball). I'm surprised that the new methods Hughes is utilizing have not garnered the same media coverage.

 

Just yesterday he was spotted soft tossing his rib in to a pitch back and then catching it. Rumor has it, the rib has the same aerodynamic characteristics as a boomerang.

 

Stay tuned for more modern training methods! 

 

[Doomtints]

 

Hughes has seen his velocity drop significantly over the past few years. Maybe it was due to injuries, but it is also pretty well established that pitchers really do simply lose their velocity as they enter their thirties, with very few exceptions. All I'm doing is projecting based on historical trends league-wide. The best use of a guy like Hughes tends to be as a setup man. Fewer pitches means he doesn't have to pace himself for seven innings, so maybe he gets a few mph back over 20 pitches. I would rather have an effective setup guy than another completely mediocre starter that is likely to break down before July.

 

I agree 100% that Hughes is cooked. But he just had an expensive, invasive surgery to try to correct something. The Twins need to find out if that surgery was worth a darn otherwise they may find themselves having more pitchers that end up having it.

[Vanimal46]

 

Seth, I cannot see Garver making the team out of ST, and that is coming from one of his biggest fans on this board. I've got to think that will most likely be JRM unless he shows this spring that last year wasn't a fluke. Even if JRM shows he's not the option, I've got to think Giminez is above Garver. No doubt that Garver is the future, but I think a few more months in AAA will help him. 

 

Concur. He's only had 76 PA's in AAA so far, and 434 total above A ball. He could use every day at-bats in AAA instead of finding at-bats when he can at the MLB level. 
 

If Castro is injured for a significant period of time, that looks like the only path for Garver to get consistent MLB at-bats this season. 

[Thrylos]

 

Ryan Vogelsong sported a 4.53 FIP and a 1.467 WHIP in 2015.

In 2016 he featured a 5.0 FIP and a 1.457 WHIP.

 

He is this year's Pat Dean. Not terrible, but not a SP on a good team.

 

Sure, but there is a wildcard in Vogelsong's favor:  AL teams really have not seen him pitch.  The last 2 season he pitched only against the Tigers, As, Rangers, Mariners, and was pretty good against the Tigers as a starter last season (5 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K). 

[Doomtints]

 

Ryan Vogelsong sported a 4.53 FIP and a 1.467 WHIP in 2015.

In 2016 he featured a 5.0 FIP and a 1.457 WHIP.

 

This puts him as being a better option than most of the Twins pitchers....

 

The truth hurts, donut?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Do Vogelsong and Tepesch have any "outs" in their minor league deals if they are not added to the 40-man roster and don't head north? Chances we see either/or in Rochester or do they look to latch on elsewhere?

It has been reported that Vogelsong can opt out "just before the start of the season" if he doesn't make the Twins 25 man roster.  I suspect he would exercise that opt out rather than accept an assignment to Rochester at this point (he hasn't been assigned to the minors in ~6 years, so he's probably still looking for an MLB job).

 

Not sure about Tepesch -- I haven't seen it reported either way.

 

Breslow also has an opt out, same as Vogelsong, and while Breslow did accept a few minor league deals/assignments last year, I suspect he's looking for a MLB opportunity with his new arm slot too.

 

If they have a rough spring, I could see them accepting minor league assignments, but negotiating another opt-out for the end of April too.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

Breslow also has an opt out, same as Vogelsong, and while Breslow did accept a few minor league deals/assignments last year, I suspect he's looking for a MLB opportunity with his new arm slot too.

 

There is another complication with Breslow:  He will play with team Israel in the WBC.  Not that it will be more than a game (or two), but it is a week or so that he will be away.  But still the Twins have plenty of time to evaluate what he has.

[jimbo92107]

 

I agree 100% that Hughes is cooked. But he just had an expensive, invasive surgery to try to correct something. The Twins need to find out if that surgery was worth a darn otherwise they may find themselves having more pitchers that end up having it.

Spring training could provide answers. If Hughes is sitting mid-80's in spring, then move him to the pen. If he's touching 91 or 92 fairly consistently (with control) then maybe he's back.

 

The other reason to try Hughes in the pen is his super-low BB/9. That's exactly what you want from a late reliever or setup man - no walks, and get it done fast. Hughes does have a good record of working quickly. 

 

One other reason to move Hughes to the pen is the logjam at starter. The Twins have several young candidates on the verge, and the team is still in rebuilding mode, so why keep aging vets as starters? What are they afraid of, another losing season?? It's too late to play the "respectability" card. This team rates no respect from anybody, so they might as well use the whole season for tryouts...at every position. 

[Doomtints]

 

Spring training could provide answers. If Hughes is sitting mid-80's in spring, then move him to the pen. If he's touching 91 or 92 fairly consistently (with control) then maybe he's back.

 

The other reason to try Hughes in the pen is his super-low BB/9. That's exactly what you want from a late reliever or setup man - no walks, and get it done fast. Hughes does have a good record of working quickly. 

 

One other reason to move Hughes to the pen is the logjam at starter. The Twins have several young candidates on the verge, and the team is still in rebuilding mode, so why keep aging vets as starters? What are they afraid of, another losing season?? It's too late to play the "respectability" card. This team rates no respect from anybody, so they might as well use the whole season for tryouts...at every position. 

I don't think they can evaluate just on ST as he is coming off the DL.  

[Walter's Whites]

Is there any chance that Garver could take the starting role in the future (possibly late 2017 or 2018-2019)? Castro has his strengths, but if Garver could be an offensive upgrade and still be decent defensively he could be even more valuable. At the very least Castro shouldn't hit against lefties very often, his batting line is horrendous.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I wouldn't bet against Garver. Castro was brought in for a reason. And I think he will handle the staff well, show his value, and his career has shown he can be effective against RHP.

 

I don't buy in to Garver's age as a restriction. Catcher is a unique position as far as development goes. He has improved defensively by all accounts, has al ways had a great arm, and has hit decently to we'll at all levels, and even shown improvement at levels if he started slow.

 

It's not only ability but opportunity. Is he better playing every 3rd day at the ML level now, or everyday at AAA to begin the season? Does an injury get him playing time or more playing time?

 

I actually find him to be at the top of my prospect watch list. He could be a solid backup to a really good starter. His opportunity window may be one of the hardest to speculate.