Article: Twins Claim Ehire Adrianza, DFA Pat Light

[jorgenswest]

Groundball pitchers Duffey and Gibson will benefit most from Adrianza. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA among their starters last year and he seems the getting little consideration for the rotation. He mixed an extremely high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in double play rate last year driving a huge disparity between ERA and xFIP. The HR rate will regress and Adrianza should help considerably.

 

I could be wrong about whether the Twins view him as a starter but I hope his xFIP- of 92 offers them some hope that his ERA was driven by both very poor luck and very poor defense. They should be counting on him for the rotation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That is funny. What an alternative truth. The Twins starting rotation might be Hughes, May, Gibson and Santiago. By your logic, I just compared them. Funny logic.

by predicting an outcome, are you not comparing those 4 against a sample to determine who you believe are the best candidates?

[The Wise One]

 

by predicting an outcome, are you not comparing those 4 against a sample to determine who you believe are the best candidates?

No I am not comparing them to anything.  It is a simple declarative statement  without any reason for the opinion. The reason could have nothing to do with my opinion of their relative talents but other factors.   Saying that players will be claimed if designated for assignment means nothing more than that. It does not mean I think they should be, or should not have been DFA. Simply a statement that players would be claimed

Edited February 13, 2017 by The Wise One

[Mr. Brooks]

Dozier is the only player to start over 150 games for the last three years. Sano will not play 3b every game, like it or not.

I said if healthy.

And when I say every day, I don't mean 162 games. He'll play 150 games at 3B if he's healthy- which of course is a big if.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well we will agree to disagree..... Actually I didn't say that each would DH 2 times a week - I said possible one time of the 2 days off. Leaving plenty of time for Polanco to play.

 

Again I would love to have Sano be the guy at 3rd as I think he can be a superstar. I also understand that our new FO's priority is to improve our pitching and defense. They go together. If he can't play defense the team will find a spot for his bat that is certain.

 

Nothing more deflating as a former player as not trusting that a guy is going to make a play and he doesn't .... over and over again. I am sure we have some former pitchers in here that can tell you this first hand.

 

Don't have the stats but I am sure that one of our metric dudes can connect good defense to good pitching as they go together. More importantly good pitching and good defensive teams have a much better chance of winning.

You want to give Dozier and Sano a day off every week?

There are 26 weeks in the season. Limiting those two players to 136 games max, even if healthy would be silly.

[killertwinfan]

Maybe Vielma is not ready and this makes sense?  It seems like window dressing to me.  

[specialiststeve]

 

You want to give Dozier and Sano a day off every week?
There are 26 weeks in the season. Limiting those two players to 136 games max, even if healthy would be silly.

 

Probably true. But moving Polanco around getting AB's versus setting him at short and not having a quality Defensive player at arguably the most important defensive spot on the field day in day out also to me seems silly. Watched Polanco play in person a half dozen times and he just did not appear to have "it" as far as being the everyday SS. Bat is fine but he is no Cal Ripkin so saying his bat is why we need to keep him there is really not a good argument. Good bat but not an "impact" bat.

[Mr. Brooks]

Probably true. But moving Polanco around getting AB's versus setting him at short and not having a quality Defensive player at arguably the most important defensive spot on the field day in day out also to me seems silly. Watched Polanco play in person a half dozen times and he just did not appear to have "it" as far as being the everyday SS. Bat is fine but he is no Cal Ripkin so saying his bat is why we need to keep him there is really not a good argument. Good bat but not an "impact" bat.

But if you are getting him at bats at the expense Dozier or Sano then you are not improving your lineup on those days.

 

I'm not saying Polanco at SS is ideal, but they saw this coming from a mile away and still chose not to trade Dozier. That makes me think they think he can at least be passable at SS, even if you disagree with them.

I doubt the plan is keep Dozier so that Polanco can steal at bats from better hitters.

[specialiststeve]

 

But if you are getting him at bats at the expense Dozier or Sano then you are not improving your lineup on those days.

I'm not saying Polanco at SS is ideal, but they saw this coming from a mile away and still chose not to trade Dozier. That makes me think they think he can at least be passable at SS, even if you disagree with them.
I doubt the plan is keep Dozier so that Polanco can steal at bats from better hitters.

 

 

As I have tried to state this is not about offense but defense. I understand the masses think that this is "fantasy" baseball and everything is about the offense. Reality is that defense is just as important (for winning teams ) and putting "passable" defensive guys at the most important defensive position is not a good idea long-term. I think we all agree that Polanco's preferred position would be second but that does not appear to be happening.

 

What the Front office and the manager as well as fans need to weight is the do we want a "passable" offensive player which I do think Adrianza would  be with regular at bats and "excellent" defense.....  or do we want Polanco with "passable" (I would say that is questionable) defense and a "good" (not great) bat.

 

As a former college player and HS coach I can tell you at that position 100% of the time I would go with the high end defense and less of an offensive player as long as passible is not Mendoza like..... 250 is okay if his defense is top notch.

[Mr. Brooks]

As I have tried to state this is not about offense but defense. I understand the masses think that this is "fantasy" baseball and everything is about the offense. Reality is that defense is just as important (for winning teams ) and putting "passable" defensive guys at the most important defensive position is not a good idea long-term. I think we all agree that Polanco's preferred position would be second but that does not appear to be happening.

 

What the Front office and the manager as well as fans need to weight is the do we want a "passable" offensive player which I do think Adrianza would be with regular at bats and "excellent" defense..... or do we want Polanco with "passable" (I would say that is questionable) defense and a "good" (not great) bat.

 

As a former college player and HS coach I can tell you at that position 100% of the time I would go with the high end defense and less of an offensive player as long as passible is not Mendoza like..... 250 is okay if his defense is top notch.

Yes, I understand what you are saying.

I'm simply pointing out what I think the organization is going to do, not what is right or wrong.

They aren't benching Sano or Dozier just so they can be a little better defensively. That's just not happening.

 

If Polanco can't win the SS spot, then he just won't play much. He's not playing at the expense of Sano or Dozier.

[Rhino and Compass]

9 pages on a utility player claimed on waivers is a sure sign of the offseason.

 

This is the type of thing a good FO does, IMO. IF the pitching isn't coming along, you give them a nudge by shoring up the defense. Maybe Adrianza doesn't start, nearly ever, but if there is a groundballer on the mound late in the game? Why not? It's just one at bat a game, maybe, and everyone else in the org has played short at some point, so if you want to pinch hit for him later, you can do that too. 

[specialiststeve]

 

Yes, I understand what you are saying.
I'm simply pointing out what I think the organization is going to do, not what is right or wrong.
They aren't benching Sano or Dozier just so they can be a little better defensively. That's just not happening.

If Polanco can't win the SS spot, then he just won't play much. He's not playing at the expense of Sano or Dozier.

 

Understand and agree....

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

9 pages on a utility player claimed on waivers is a sure sign of the offseason.

 

This is the type of thing a good FO does, IMO. IF the pitching isn't coming along, you give them a nudge by shoring up the defense. Maybe Adrianza doesn't start, nearly ever, but if there is a groundballer on the mound late in the game? Why not? It's just one at bat a game, maybe, and everyone else in the org has played short at some point, so if you want to pinch hit for him later, you can do that too. 

 

Hopefully any infielder can handle ground balls.  But sure, there's nothing wrong with this signing.

[Doomtints]

 

If Polanco can't win the SS spot, then he just won't play much. He's not playing at the expense of Sano or Dozier.

 

If Polanco doesn't stick in the lineup it will be because of his bat. No reasonable person thinks he won't be able to play decent defense at SS over the long haul.

 

Adrianza is likely competing with Santana and Escobar for the backup spot, not Polanco for the starting spot.  

[jorgenswest]

If Polanco doesn't stick in the lineup it will be because of his bat. No reasonable person thinks he won't be able to play decent defense at SS over the long haul.

 

Adrianza is likely competing with Santana and Escobar for the backup spot, not Polanco for the starting spot.

 

I suppose the same could be said about Plouffe, Nishioka and Dozier as they started playing shortstop for the Twins. There were people who questioned their ability to play decent defense at SS in the majors. Perhaps they were unreasonable. The Twins did seems to have more confidence in Plouffe and Dozier at the time they arrived given they had stayed at SS through the minors. The Twins moved Polanco away from shortstop a few times including the start of 2016. Reports of his struggle with defense have been around since he hit high A. I think there is a good chance his defense won't approach my understanding of decent (not in the bottom quartile). Call me unreasonable.

[Doomtints]

 

I suppose the same could be said about Plouffe, Nishioka and Dozier as they started playing shortstop for the Twins. There were people who questioned their ability to play decent defense at SS in the majors. Perhaps they were unreasonable. The Twins did seems to have more confidence in Plouffe and Dozier at the time they arrived given they had stayed at SS through the minors. The Twins moved Polanco away from shortstop a few times including the start of 2016. Reports of his struggle with defense have been around since he hit high A. I think there is a good chance his defense won't approach my understanding of decent (not in the bottom quartile). Call me unreasonable.

 

By "reports" do you mean Keith Law? Usually when I read an idea that multiple people are convinced of being true but there is zero evidence to back up, Law has been writing about it. He is the godfather of baseball, some people will follow him anywhere.

 

Polanco has a pretty big sample size at SS in the minors and I don't see any red flags in the data. I'll trust data over a writer getting paid to fill up space on every player in the universe any day of the week.

Edited February 15, 2017 by Doomtints

[jorgenswest]

By "reports" do you mean Keith Law? Usually when I read an idea that multiple people are convinced of being true but there is zero evidence to back up, Law has been writing about it. He is the godfather of baseball, some people will follow him anywhere.

 

Polanco has a pretty big sample size at SS in the minors and I don't see any red flags in the data. I'll trust data over a writer getting paid to fill up space on every player in the universe any day of the week.

How is his data more trustworthy than that of Dozier, Santana or Plouffe?

 

I see in the data 200 games at 2B in the minors and almost exclusive play at 2B by his winter ball coaches. It would have to be extreme incompetence on the part of the Twins to play his that often at 2B that often if they thought he had a shot to be a decent SS. It is critical teams keep players as far to the right of the defensive spectrum as long as possible.

 

I am curious what you see in the data that gives you more confidence in his ability to be decent than the three players above who couldn't make it. All three played SS a much greater rate of time in the minors.

[snepp]

Speaking of data, how about his abysmal marks in the majors at shortstop? A small sampling for sure, but it is a data point, and it is a serious reg flag.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If Polanco doesn't stick in the lineup it will be because of his bat. No reasonable person thinks he won't be able to play decent defense at SS over the long haul.

 

Adrianza is likely competing with Santana and Escobar for the backup spot, not Polanco for the starting spot.

in the near term I'm more confident of Polanco's bat than his glove.

 

Today Adrianza is competing for backup super utility but if/when Polanco is a butcher between a second baseman with a bigger bat and not great range and a third baseman with an even bigger bat with even less range, Levine seems like he'll turn polar opposite to the all glove no stick guy.

[Doomtints]

 

How is his data more trustworthy than that of Dozier, Santana or Plouffe?

I see in the data 200 games at 2B in the minors and almost exclusive play at 2B by his winter ball coaches. It would have to be extreme incompetence on the part of the Twins to play his that often at 2B that often if they thought he had a shot to be a decent SS. It is critical teams keep players as far to the right of the defensive spectrum as long as possible.

I am curious what you see in the data that gives you more confidence in his ability to be decent than the three players above who couldn't make it. All three played SS a much greater rate of time in the minors.

 

He has 129 more games and 1200 more innings in the minors at SS than at 2B....

 

At some point everyone has to stop reacting to what people write and start looking things up themselves.

Edited February 15, 2017 by Doomtints

[Doomtints]

 

Speaking of data, how about his abysmal marks in the majors at shortstop? A small sampling for sure, but it is a data point, and it is a serious reg flag.

 

He was good at SS with the MLB club in 2014 and 2015.  But as you say, "small sample size."

 

Just let the kid play, he'll be fine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He has 129 more games and 1200 more innings in the minors at SS than at 2B....

 

At some point everyone has to stop reacting to what people write and start looking things up themselves.

Dozier played 289 MiLB games at short and only 47 games at second.

 

MiLB positions are often based on the Peter Principle. Generally, the earlier a guy drops out of a premier position, the less competent he is at that position. Dozier had a chance to stick at short so he was given every opportunity to do so, playing the overwhelming majority of his MiLB games at the position. Despite those chances, he failed at the MLB level. You can repeat those statements for Trevor Plouffe as well.

 

Polanco, on the other hand, has close to a 50/50 split between SS/2B in the minors. Like Dozier and Plouffe, his scouting reports are not optimistic (and, generally, I'd say they're less optimistic than they were for Dozier). Polanco's initial taste of shortstop at the MLB level was... not good.

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing there that indicates Polanco will be an adequate MLB SS. Is it possible? Sure. Lots of things are possible. Is it likely? No. He has a lot going against him.

 

Hell, there are scouts out there who question Gordon's ability to stick at short and he was considered a polished, advanced fielder out of high school.

 

Playing shortstop at the MLB level is really, really hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He was good at SS with the MLB club in 2014 and 2015.  But as you say, "small sample size."

Small sample sizes for fielding are half of a season.

 

Polanco played less than a week's worth of innings between 2014 and 2015 combined.

 

As many of us were hollering at the time, 2014/2015 were complete wastes of Polanco. The front office burned two options for a total of 40 innings played in the field.

 

Had that not happened, we should be asking if Polanco will start the season in Rochester.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Small sample sizes for fielding are half of a season.

 

Polanco played less than a week's worth of innings between 2014 and 2015 combined.

 

As many of us were hollering at the time, 2014/2015 were complete wastes of Polanco. The front office burned two options for a total of 40 innings played in the field.

 

Had that not happened, we should be asking if Polanco will start the season in Rochester.

wasn't he out of options when added?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

wasn't he out of options when added?

Last season? Yeah, that should have been his final option.

 

But had the Twins not inexplicably called him up in either 2014 or 2015, he'd still have an option remaining.

[Doomtints]

 

Dozier played 289 MiLB games at short and only 47 games at second.

 

MiLB positions are often based on the Peter Principle. Generally, the earlier a guy drops out of a premier position, the less competent he is at that position. Dozier had a chance to stick at short so he was given every opportunity to do so, playing the overwhelming majority of his MiLB games at the position. Despite those chances, he failed at the MLB level. You can repeat those statements for Trevor Plouffe as well.

 

Polanco, on the other hand, has close to a 50/50 split between SS/2B in the minors. Like Dozier and Plouffe, his scouting reports are not optimistic (and, generally, I'd say they're less optimistic than they were for Dozier). Polanco's initial taste of shortstop at the MLB level was... not good.

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing there that indicates Polanco will be an adequate MLB SS. Is it possible? Sure. Lots of things are possible. Is it likely? No. He has a lot going against him.

 

Hell, there are scouts out there who question Gordon's ability to stick at short and he was considered a polished, advanced fielder out of high school.

 

Playing shortstop at the MLB level is really, really hard.

 

I don't disagree. All I'm saying is pump the brakes. Many people have decided in their minds that he can't do the job when there is evidence that he can.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Last season? Yeah, that should have been his final option.

 

But had the Twins not inexplicably called him up in either 2014 or 2015, he'd still have an option remaining.

 

sorry... not what I meant.  40 man add.  He had to be added to the 40 man, which required those options to be used regardless.  He wasn't an early 40 man add if I remember right. In that sense, the FO had no choice but to burn the options... yes, he could have gotten more ML PT, but in 2014 he clearly wasn't ready since he was in High A if I remember right. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't disagree. All I'm saying is pump the brakes. Many people have decided in their minds that he can't do the job when there is evidence that he can.

Sure, which is why I'm not entirely against him starting the season at short. I'm wary of it but given the other options, it's not the worst idea in the world to see if he can hack it at short.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

sorry... not what I meant.  40 man add.  He had to be added to the 40 man, which required those options to be used regardless.  He wasn't an early 40 man add if I remember right. In that sense, the FO had no choice but to burn the options... yes, he could have gotten more ML PT, but in 2014 he clearly wasn't ready since he was in High A if I remember right. 

Ah, good point. I can't recall if he was an early add to the 40 man.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I *think* Polanco must have been an early add to the 40 man.

 

He was signed at 16 years old. Doesn't that give an additional year of pre-40 man roster time?