This is not necessarily an endorsement of signing Bautista, particularly at his current asking price, but a prospect acquired in July trade would probably be less "voodoo" than one drafted in June -- he would already have pro experience, closer to the majors, etc.  There's also the chance that they could acquire multiple pieces for Bautista in July, as opposed to one pick in the draft.  Even if they're not top prospects, I could see an effective Bautista fetching some interesting packages in July.

 

based on 1.4 WAR (or whatever) players who can't field and are declining having fetched a lot the last few years?

based on 1.4 WAR (or whatever) players who can't field and are declining having fetched a lot the last few years?

Obviously they would be placing a bet on a bounce back. Last year was basically the first time in ~7 years that Bautista fell short of a ~5 bWAR full season pace, so it wouldn't be that crazy of a bet. Player performance trends aren't always straight linear.

 

Obviously they would be placing a bet on a bounce back. Last year was basically the first time in ~7 years that Bautista fell short of a ~5 bWAR full season pace, so it wouldn't be that crazy of a bet. Player performance trends aren't always straight linear.

 

And that bet is a good bet? He's a bat only player at this point. 

 

Bautista on a bounce back helping the Twins contend, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

Bautista on a bounce back, not helping the Twins contend, and traded for something useful, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

No Bautista, a 2nd round pick, and the $2MM in pool money

 

Which of those seems like the best bet for a 59 win team with a mediocre (or worse) farm system (which is how they will rate when stack ranked by BA, Sickels, Fangrapsh, KLAW, MLB)?

 

I don't see Bautista going for $20M.  Max would be $15M, but I'm guessing he signs in the $10M-$12M range unless a bottom feeder team wants to pay the $15M.

 

Maybe someone gives him $20M for two years, but I doubt that too.

Edited January 12, 20179 yr by Doomtints

He probably doesn't sign until June, just like Morales. 

 

I certainly would get in on the bidding then. Though so would everybody else.

 

And that bet is a good bet? He's a bat only player at this point. 

 

Bautista on a bounce back helping the Twins contend, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

Bautista on a bounce back, not helping the Twins contend, and traded for something useful, forfeighted 2nd round pick and $2MM in signing money for the draft

No Bautista, a 2nd round pick, and the $2MM in pool money

 

Which of those seems like the best bet for a 59 win team with a mediocre (or worse) farm system (which is how they will rate when stack ranked by BA, Sickels, Fangrapsh, KLAW, MLB)?

I'd bet on bounceback actually.  He'll hit enough to be worth a second round return at the deadline.  I don't think that's particularly risky.  That said, I do think there is some logic in keeping all three picks in the first 38 (or whatever) because maybe the Twins could get something like the #3 college pitcher at 1 and get a two more top 15 players to drop.  I like that idea, too.  But I'm not going to complain either way.  I'm more optimistic about this team than most.  I think they have the core of a very good offense but could use a big improvement at 1b/DH which could be internal (bounceback season from Mauer, break out from Park) or external (Bautista).  

While we may be confident Bautista will hit enough to net a second round pick equivalent, let's not forget that will cost the Twins at least $10m with a peak of $15m-ish if the receiving team needs cash back to make a deal work.

 

It could cost the Twins over 10% of their payroll to pick up a guy just in hopes he'll be good enough to flip for the equivalent of a draft slot they already have banked.

 

That's a terrible risk for something with so little upside (the upside being that if Bautista goes bananas, he'll net more than that second round pick).

 

I'd love to have Bautista on the team but it simply doesn't make much sense on a team trying to figure out what they have in Sano, Park, Vargas, and Mauer.

 

While we may be confident Bautista will hit enough to net a second round pick equivalent, let's not forget that will cost the Twins at least $10m with a peak of $15m-ish if the receiving team needs cash back to make a deal work.

 

It could cost the Twins over 10% of their payroll to pick up a guy just in hopes he'll be good enough to flip for the equivalent of a draft slot they already have banked.

 

That's a terrible risk for something with so little upside (the upside being that if Bautista goes bananas, he'll net more than that second round pick).

 

I'd love to have Bautista on the team but it simply doesn't make much sense on a team trying to figure out what they have in Sano, Park, Vargas, and Mauer.

Not sure your numbers are right.  The Twins aren't going to sign him at a 1/20 deal.  They'd get him at something like 1/10 or 1/12 and half that would be paid by the receiving team in a trade (unless the Twins eat salary to get a better prospect).  

 

There are a lot of reasons to not do the deal but payroll isn't one of them.

 

Bautista is only 6 behind Mauer for career Target Field HR

This 100x. Someone probably already posted it but Bautista has hit 349/429/895 at Target Field in 21 games. We can hope our offense will develop into a playoff level offense, or sign him for 3 years and virtually guarantee it. 

 

Not sure your numbers are right.  The Twins aren't going to sign him at a 1/20 deal.  They'd get him at something like 1/10 or 1/12 and half that would be paid by the receiving team in a trade (unless the Twins eat salary to get a better prospect).  

 

There are a lot of reasons to not do the deal but payroll isn't one of them.

I was going from a line of a $15m deal but $10m-12m has similar issues.

 

First, few players are traded on July 1st, which is the rough halfway point of the season. The Twins would likely be on the hook for 60-67% of Bautista's salary, not 50%.

 

Going from a baseline of $12m, that's still a lot of money. If the Twins want to open up the trade partners to all teams, they may need to be open to adding cash to the deal and cash included usually doesn't translate to prospect worth at a 1:1 ratio.

 

The best case scenario is that Bautista goes into the break mashing and the Twins net a top 50-75 prospect, a better prospect than what they would have chosen with the second round pick, though not enormously better. Just... Better. A more sure thing.

 

The worst case scenario is that Bautista is injured/bad and worth nothing. The Twins burn $12m and the first second round pick of the draft.

 

I don't see much upside there and I see a lot of downside. Bautista is going into his age 36 season. He's pretty old in baseball terms.

 

This 100x. Someone probably already posted it but Bautista has hit 349/429/895 at Target Field in 21 games. We can hope our offense will develop into a playoff level offense, or sign him for 3 years and virtually guarantee it. 

 

You really think that's about the stadium, and not facing the worst pitching staff in baseball?

Probably don't need two of these, let's discuss this here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24675-article-pursuing-jose-bautista-seems-unconventional/