Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Willihammer]

Rays seem like they could fit as a third team, no?

What would the Dodger's offer (JDL+) be worth to the Rays?

[King]

 

I'm sorry, the last part of this statement makes no sense.

For a guy who signed in 2015 and didn't pitch until 2016 (player dev's decision), I'm not sure how his pitching (well) while showing an elite fastball, flashing a plus-plus slider and some feel for a changeup "did him no favors."

Yeah that doesn't make any sense at all. He absolutely shredded Low A and looked fantastic while doing it.

 

Also are you Dustin Nosler (https://twitter.com/DustinNosler)? I follow you on twitter, and really appreciate the Dodgers insight. Just wanted to say if that's you (I assume it is) keep up the good work!

[Han Joelo]

I'm starting to think that Alvarez is the big market, Cuban version of Wander. Only a pitcher, and a year older.

 

Trading their investment in him for a sure thing in Dozier seems smart to me.

[specialiststeve]

 

I think the market has spoken. I think that DeLeon along with Alvarez (or Stewart) is enough to make deal

You don't need to agree. I'm ok with that.

 

I do think for a lot of us that is the whole issue. The market for a top notch player ie. Eaton set the market and not getting close to that we would not be getting close to the market price for Dozier.

 

Sending Barios and Jay for Seager and saying that is a good deal is about the same..... not enough..... if the market says that is the price than you wait until the price goes up as it is not enough.

 

 

[AZTwin]

I'm starting to think that Alvarez is the big market, Cuban version of Wander. Only a pitcher, and a year older.

 

Trading their investment in him for a sure thing in Dozier seems smart to me.

Absolutely. I would trade wander Javier and Jose berrios for Clayton kershaw all day

[Eris]

 

Can anyone think of any recent prospects who have exceeded limited upside? I mean Dozier obviously did, so there is probably a ton of examples, but I can't think of any. Any pitchers who were thought of as #5 types who turned out to be more #2 or #1 types? Im usually pretty good about that kind of thing, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. 

 

Kyle Hendricks.

 

From Fangraphs: (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-stock-watch-kyle-hendricks/)

 

The Rangers flipped him to the Cubs in the Ryan Dempster deal, prompting this report entering 2013:

Were the Rangers selling high, or do the Cubs have something special here? Hendricks threw up to 94 MPH when used in the bullpen in 2011, but as a starter he’s more in the 88-92 range. His command is excellent and he has a full assortment of secondary pitches, using a curveball, traditional slider, cutter, and changeup. None of his pitches are plus offerings, but hell, he’s got five of them, and he throws strikes. That’s enough to make short work of A-ball. We need to see him at higher levels, but Hendricks could end up being a useful four/five starter. He could also return to the bullpen, where his diverse arsenal and superior command could give hitters fits in short doses. Grade C+

 

Also, Jacob DeGrom wasn't on any top prospect lists although injuries played a role. (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/5/6874227/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-jacob-degrom-rhp-new-york-mets)

 

Corey Kluber (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/6/6922083/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-corey-kluber-rhp-cleveland-indians)

[jorgenswest]

I do think for a lot of us that is the whole issue. The market for a top notch player ie. Eaton set the market and not getting close to that we would not be getting close to the market price for Dozier.

 

Sending Barios and Jay for Seager and saying that is a good deal is about the same..... not enough..... if the market says that is the price than you wait until the price goes up as it is not enough.

I have been trying to think of an equivalent from the Twins perspective.

 

There is no way I would trade Berrios and Jay for Eaton or Dozier. Dozier has two years of team control for which he should have an OPS around his career mark of .762 representing very good production at 2B. Eaton has the extra year and a slightly better career OPS. He can play CF which is more valuable than 2B but his plus defense is on a corner.

 

Corey Seager is far more valuable in years of control, age and position.

[specialiststeve]

 

I have been trying to think of an equivalent from the Twins perspective.

There is no way I would trade Berrios and Jay for Eaton or Dozier. Dozier has two years of team control for which he should have an OPS around his career mark of .762 representing very good production at 2B. Eaton has the extra year and a slightly better career OPS. He can play CF which is more valuable than 2B but his plus defense is on a corner.

Corey Seager is far more valuable in years of control, age and position.

Evidently you missed it the Nationals acquired OF Adam Eaton from the White Sox for RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo Lopez, and RHP Dane Dunning....... THREE high end pitchers.....

 

If you believe that Eaton has  more value than Dozier I do believe you are wrong. Looking at offensive stats? Also if you look at Eaton in CF he is on the negative side of replacement value. Dozier a 40 plus HR guy who is a run producer, good on defense, great in the locker room..... etc....

 

Only thing with Eaton is his contract is longer and at a controllable price. But as a player... not even close.

[dnosler]

Yeah that doesn't make any sense at all. He absolutely shredded Low A and looked fantastic while doing it.

 

Also are you Dustin Nosler (https://twitter.com/DustinNosler)? I follow you on twitter, and really appreciate the Dodgers insight. Just wanted to say if that's you (I assume it is) keep up the good work!

Yeah, that's me. Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.

[DodgerFan1234]

Yeah, that's me. Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.

Same here. I referenced the fine website you do run with Moriyama and that (scab) Petriello and got accused of owning your website and referencing it for profit. I didn't think people could think so low of me until that moment

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have been trying to think of an equivalent from the Twins perspective.

 

There is no way I would trade Berrios and Jay for Eaton or Dozier. Dozier has two years of team control for which he should have an OPS around his career mark of .762 representing very good production at 2B. Eaton has the extra year and a slightly better career OPS. He can play CF which is more valuable than 2B but his plus defense is on a corner.

 

Corey Seager is far more valuable in years of control, age and position.

Eaton has an extra 3 years on Dozier (team options). And he's slightly younger so those years are more valuable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Evidently you missed it the Nationals acquired OF Adam Eaton from the White Sox for RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo Lopez, and RHP Dane Dunning....... THREE high end pitchers.....

 

If you believe that Eaton has more value than Dozier I do believe you are wrong. Looking at offensive stats? Also if you look at Eaton in CF he is on the negative side of replacement value. Dozier a 40 plus HR guy who is a run producer, good on defense, great in the locker room..... etc....

 

Only thing with Eaton is his contract is longer and at a controllable price. But as a player... not even close.

How about career OPS?

 

Last year was the first time Dozier had a season OPS higher than Eaton's career mark.

 

Eaton is younger, controlled longer, and has been far more consistent -- all of those have real value.

 

Dozier has value too, but there is no shame in having less value than Eaton or Sale -- those are strong players on two of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Yeah that doesn't make any sense at all. He absolutely shredded Low A and looked fantastic while doing it.

 

 

And rookie league too.  

[specialiststeve]

 

How about career OPS?

Last year was the first time Dozier had a season OPS higher than Eaton's career mark.

Eaton is younger, controlled longer, and has been far more consistent -- all of those have real value.

Dozier has value too, but there is no shame in having less value than Eaton or Sale -- those are strong players on two of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

Sale I understand as he has the ability to win a game by himself and is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game....

 

Eaton I was stunned with what they gave up for a mediocre player but he has a very team friendly contract. I look at his stats for his career and they are nice but not real special..... OBP is very good not much power, not a run producer.... If you want a place setter he is nice ... if you want someone to drive him in.... Dozier...

 

Maybe I am a homer but Dozier has only got better and better and I would much rather keep him than take less than several GREAT prospects.

[King]

Sale I understand as he has the ability to win a game by himself and is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game....

 

Eaton I was stunned with what they gave up for a mediocre player but he has a very team friendly contract. I look at his stats for his career and they are nice but not real special..... OBP is very good not much power, not a run producer.... If you want a place setter he is nice ... if you want someone to drive him in.... Dozier...

 

Maybe I am a homer but Dozier has only got better and better and I would much rather keep him than take less than several GREAT prospects.

I think we have different definitions of a mediocre player.

[specialiststeve]

 

I think we have different definitions of a mediocre player.

Last 3 years.... Averages about 10 hr's, 90 runs scored, 50 RBI,  15 SB's, 300 ave and about a 330 OBP. Very nice but to me that is a mediocre player. My standards are evidently pretty high.... as I hope the Twin's nation would be.

[snepp]

Pulled this out of an article written after Eaton was traded.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-eaton-is-the-nationals-newest-star-player/
 

Why beat around the bush, right? Over the past three years, 235 players have batted at least 1,000 times. If you go by WAR per 600, Adam Eaton ranks in 40th place. That puts him in the top 20% out of players who have already been getting at least semi-regular playing time. I don’t know where your star cutoff is, and the whole thing is subjective and arbitrary, but are there, say, 50 star position players? Eaton fits. Statistically, if not by perception, Eaton fits, and now here’s a reference table. This is not the top of the list. Mike Trout is at the top of the list. But here are the five players on either side of Eaton’s rank.

 

Last Three Seasons

Player  WAR/600

 

Russell Martin  4.1
Andrew McCutchen  4.0
Alex Gordon  4.0
Brian Dozier  4.0
J.D. Martinez  4.0
Adam Eaton  3.9
Odubel Herrera  3.9
Jose Bautista  3.9
George Springer  3.9
Brandon Belt  3.9
Robinson Cano  3.9

 

Minimum 1,000 plate appearances.

 

 

 

If Eaton is mediocre, so is Dozier.

[jorgenswest]

I think Eaton is a reasonable enough comp. I don't think the return from the Nationals sets the market though. It is a single transaction and possibly an outlier beyond where other teams see his value.

[beckmt]

 

Rays seem like they could fit as a third team, no?

What would the Dodger's offer (JDL+) be worth to the Rays?

Rays have plenty of pitching, what they lack is a 1B player.  Will that work with the Twins, maybe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

How in the world is Kansas City not a potential option here?  Their system has thinned out no doubt, but for a team that gave up 712 runs last season, their porblem was the ability to score netting them a .500 record a year after winning the WS.  2B is a gaping hole for them both offensively and defensively.  They need to win now.

 

I would think, just looking at their system, that they could get this done in some way.  Their top prospect (Josh Staumont) has top of the rotation potential and should be knocking on the door next year some time. Yeah, he's not opening day 2017 ready, but Matt Strahm may be as he spent some time in the major leagues this season. If those arms aren't appealing, perhaps you could get a 3rd team involved using Hunter Dozier and potentially some of our other chips instead.  There's more risk there, but there's still quite a bit of talent. 

[Willihammer]

KC has Raul Mondesi slated for 2nd no? Maybe next winter if Mondesi works out, move him to SS and pickup a 2B then.

[doscinco]

I like how you guys are finding every flaw for JDL, but then turn around and say guys like Josh Staumont and Archie Bradley, who can't throw strikes, are enticing

[gunnarthor]

 

I like how you guys are finding every flaw for JDL, but then turn around and say guys like Josh Staumont and Archie Bradley, who can't throw strikes, are enticing

Shoulder soreness is a hell of a flaw.

[doscinco]

He pitched well after he came back from it though? 11 k/9 in the Pacific League is unheard of.

 

The Dodgers are highly conservative with their young starting pitchers. I don't think like at inning pitch does much. Hell, Alvarez don't throw many innings.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

KC has Raul Mondesi slated for 2nd no? Maybe next winter if Mondesi works out, move him to SS and pickup a 2B then.

 

I was looking at another post where their projected value at 2B was worst in the league.  For a team with a reasonable shot at contending, replacing a worst in the league position with a best in the league position would be a pretty big bump.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I like how you guys are finding every flaw for JDL, but then turn around and say guys like Josh Staumont and Archie Bradley, who can't throw strikes, are enticing

 

Staumont isn't a bad prospect. He needs more time. Yes, he's got control issues. He's also played at AA making him a reasonable bet to start in Rochester. He would hardly be the only arm acquired in that scenario either, which is by far the bigger issue here.

 

But to the other point, we need pitching and lots of it. Some will pan out, some won't.  There's a ton more risk when acquiring pitching. That's the nature of pitching prospects. I wouldn't do JDL for Dozier straight up for that reason alone. Not even sure I'd do JDL and Stewart for Dozier straight up for that reason alone. While both will pitch in the majors in 2017, neither are sure thing impacts beyond that and both have serious reasons for concern.  I need more.  Now if LA came at me with JDL, Stewart, Alvarez, I'd do it.  If they said JDL, Stewart, Ruiz, and another 10-20 prospect (especially a P, SS, or CF), I'd probably do it.  But I do have very bad memories of that Santana trade where a bunch of quantity was put in place of quality. There was only one potential quality piece to that trade, and he didn't live up to the potential.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

He pitched well after he came back from it though? 11 k/9 in the Pacific League is unheard of.

The Dodgers are highly conservative with their young starting pitchers. I don't think like at inning pitch does much. Hell, Alvarez don't throw many innings.

 

Both De Leon and Stewart have the SSS thing going with their PCL time. I'm not saying these are bad prospects, but we've all seen plenty of guys put up gaudy K/9 rates in the minors and never amount to much in the majors.

[King]

 

I like how you guys are finding every flaw for JDL, but then turn around and say guys like Josh Staumont and Archie Bradley, who can't throw strikes, are enticing

The Archie Bradley discussion went like this.

 

"How about Archie Bradley?"

 

"His command profile is terrible and he has an extensive injury history. Too much risk"

 

"You're right he is risky."

 

 

Very enticing.

[King]

 

Both De Leon and Stewart have the SSS thing going with their PCL time. 

Not really. De Leon pitched 86 innings of an obscene level in AAA and Stewart had 50 innings of dominance as well. And both these guys have an extensive history of dominating the minor leagues at levels below AAA. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Shoulder soreness is a hell of a flaw.

Seems like some of you are talking about JDL like he's had a chronic condition.  He's had one sore shoulder after his 1st start last season which followed being shut down by an ankle injury.  The Dodgers babied him after the soreness because there was no need to rush him.  It's not like he's had injuries every season.