DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[AlwaysinModeration]

The new rumblings and tweets have made their way to the front of MLB Trade Rumors. This seems like it is getting close. Dave, let's hope your source is right about Alvarez (and 1-2 additional players).

[d-mac]

 

The new rumblings and tweets have made their way to the front of MLB Trade Rumors. This seems like it is getting close. Dave, let's hope your source is right about Alvarez (and 1-2 additional players).

 

Although I wouldn't be disappointed in De Leon+ Stewart+ ?

[d-mac]

 

I'm guessing that the trade is close. Getting a couple national writers to talk actual players usually means things are happening.

 

I also wonder if the Twins would trade Santana should they get DeLeon and Stewart back ...

 

Or at the very least dump Santiago. Honestly, I'd have De Leon, Berrios, Stewart, May, Gibson in my rotation. Duffey and Hughes in the pen to start. Mejia in the minors. In that scenario I'd dump Santiago for a bag of balls and trade E-San for some quality prospects in the lower minors that wouldn't require a 40 man spot. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Although I wouldn't be disappointed in De Leon+ Stewart+ ?

I don't think Stewart is much better than Santiago.  He's a #5 type.

[bluechipper]

This sure is picking up steam today. I'm predicting it gets done in the next 24 hours. Deleon and Verdugo, or maybe Brock Stewart.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think Stewart is much better than Santiago.  He's a #5 type.

 

Minor league stats indicate that they are totally different pitchers. Stewart had significantly better K/BB rates and FIP at similar levels and ages. But let's say you are right, he's a #5. I'd rather pay a MLB minimum to a number 5 than 8+ mil to Santiago. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Minor league stats indicate that they are totally different pitchers. Stewart had significantly better K/BB rates and FIP at similar levels and ages. But let's say you are right, he's a #5. I'd rather pay a MLB minimum to a number 5 than 8+ mil to Santiago. 

The scouting reports on Stewart said he was a back end guy.  And I don't really care about the cost.  I don't want to use our best trade asset to pick up a guy we could just as well find on the FA line.  

[Major League Ready]

 

I agree with your hypothetical.  Alvarez should be no more valued by the Twins than an identical player with a lower signing bonus.  But it's not at all what I was trying to say.

 

The Dodgers very recently spent $32 million on Alvarez.  Do you think the Dodgers did it so that just one year later they could include him in a package to add ~$28 mil surplus value at second base?  If that was their intent, they probably would have simply bid harder for Ben Zobrist in free agency last winter, no?  Skipped Alvarez if they needed to, and kept their other prospects.

 

My contention is, they more likely invested $32 million in Alvarez with the intent of trading him for (or developing him into) more surplus value than just ~$28 mil.  Sorta like the Red Sox with Moncada and Sale (most estimates have the Red Sox adding ~$50 mil of surplus value in that swap, above Moncada's bonus).

 

Now, the $32 million has indeed been spent, so they Dodgers could certainly change their intent with Alvarez as circumstances warrant, but it was so recent, and the early returns on Alvarez have been so positive (albeit limited), that I would be surprised if they are ready to change that intent quite yet.

 

Of course, you could make the same argument, just generically saying the Dodgers value Alvarez more, and hypothetical identical player with zero signing bonus could receive this same present valuation from the Dodgers.  But this very recent bonus is an actual tangible data point that helps support that generic argument, so I thought it was worth presenting.  It's just another data point which suggests that Alvarez is not part of this offer, at least not as commonly described.

Fair enough.

[beckmt]

 

Bellinger would be great, but I don't see him as the deal breaker, and I don't think the Dodgers want to include him. DeLeon is talked about as the centerpiece; 1 or 1a, however you want to see it. It seems that his inclusion isn't really debated much. Alvarez seems like he could be the deal breaker. I think that most of us on this board would jump at DeLeon and Alvarez, and if it is pieces 3 and 4 holding the deal up, that's frustrating. However, if Alvarez is off the table, as some have suggested, would DeLeon and two of Lux, Sheffield, Buehler or Calhoun be Palatable?

 

I have no more info (actually, probably much less) than any of you, but it seems like Bellinger is not someone the Dodgers want to part with, or someone the Twins would insist upon. The argument for Alvarez not being included (the heavy investment that is looking good early) makes a lot of sense and I wouldn't want my team including a prospect like that for obvious reasons. All indications are Stewart will be in line to pitch a good portion if the season with the big-league club; i.e. in their immediate plans. 

Deleon is not the type of headliner you would give up Dozier for. You need a prospect with a higher upside, hence Alvarez.  The issue as I read it seems to be more the 3 or 4 person with prospect vs org filler being the issue.

[d-mac]

 

The scouting reports on Stewart said he was a back end guy.  And I don't really care about the cost.  I don't want to use our best trade asset to pick up a guy we could just as well find on the FA line.  

 

Scouting reports are wrong all the time. I've seen reports saying he has a potential plus fastball, plus change, above avg command. Sounds like a #3 to me. If cost is never taken into account you end up having a bunch mediocre players on a mediocre team taking up all the payroll space. Sorta like the Twins circa 2012. Payroll is a limited commodity, like roster space. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I'm just not crazy about Verdugo. His minor league track record doesn't indicate much. He doesn't strike out much and is young for his leagues, but doesn't hit for power, have any significant speed, or draw a high amount of walks. a wRC+ of 113 in AA doesn't do much for me. 

Here's the deal with Verdugo.  They have really challenged him by were they've place him in the minors. One thing I do like about Freidman and Co. is that they aren't afraid to fast track guys if they think they're up to it.  Toles and Stewart started in High A last year.  Like Bellinger, Verdugo have consistently been one of the youngest players in his respective league.  He was having a nice season at AA last year and I think he was only 19 at the beginning of the season. He ran out of gas the final month and admitted so in the AFL.  He has a gun for an arm and will probably wind up a corner OF although he's been playing CF.  He's going to need a full season at AAA and because of his young age you don't have to rush him up though.  I really like what Toles brings to the Dodgers and if Freidman and FAZ think he's past his anxiety issues the Dodgers could make Verdugo available to someone.

[King]

I don't think Stewart is much better than Santiago. He's a #5 type.

I think you're selling him short. I'm fairly confident in saying he's an MLB ready #3 starter with 6 years of control.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I don't think Stewart is much better than Santiago.  He's a #5 type.

I don't think people know where to pigeon hole Stewart yet.  So, I wouldn't label him as a #5.  He was a shortstop until I believe his final year or final two years at Illinois State.  He throws 95 with movement and has a nasty change up with enough other secondary stuff to be successful.  His first two outings were skewed by one bad inning in each.  He has great composure and when he came back up he mowed down the Chicago Cubs last August.  I think he gets labeled a #5 because he came out of nowhere.  Believe me there are plenty of Dodgers fans who don't want to do Deleon and Stewart for 2 years of Dozier which tells me it might be the right price.  

[d-mac]

 

Here's the deal with Verdugo.  They have really challenged him by were they've place him in the minors. One thing I do like about Freidman and Co. is that they aren't afraid to fast track guys if they think they're up to it.  Toles and Stewart started in High A last year.  Like Bellinger, Verdugo has consistently been one of the youngest players in his respective league.  He was having a nice season at AA last year and I think he was only 19 at the beginning of the season. He ran out of gas the final month and admitted so in the AFL.  He has a gun for an arm and will probably wind up a corner OF although he's been playing CF.  He's going to need a full season at AAA and because of his young age you don't have to rush him up though.  I really like what Toles brings to the Dodgers and if Freidman and FAZ think he's past his anxiety issues the Dodgers could make Verdugo available to someone.

 

He doesn't have the power, or project to have the power to fit a corner outfield spot. Nor has he shown the speed or OBP to make up for it. I don't think he has the skill set to push Eddie Rosario and I think he has less upside than Kepler. I just can't see us being that interested in him. I think upside of Verdugo is Alex Gordon. Decent player with a great arm. But nothing special. 

[pbrezeasap]

 

Scouting reports are wrong all the time. I've seen reports saying he has a potential plus fastball, plus change, above avg command. Sounds like a #3 to me. If cost is never taken into account you end up having a bunch mediocre players on a mediocre team taking up all the payroll space. Sorta like the Twins circa 2012. Payroll is a limited commodity, like roster space. 

 

I think there is an even greater chance scouting reports could be wrong for a guy who has only been a professional pitcher for 3 seasons after spending most of college as a position player. I sure hope he is part of any deal.

[DaveW]

My source is saying there is lots of chatter amongst the whole front office today. De Leon and Alvarez still is what they are saying, no updates about 3rd or 4th...sorry.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think you're selling him short. I'm fairly confident in saying he's an MLB ready #3 starter with 6 years of control.

Well, yeah, I could certainly be wrong.  And if we get him, I would assume our scouting guys/FO guys think more highly of him than I do.  

[Lonestar]

Although I wouldn't be disappointed in De Leon+ Stewart+ ?

Now to disagree without being disagreeable.

Are the Twins really so strapped for pitching that you would prefer Stewart to Verdugo? Who are those extra pieces that would cause you to make that deal?

[gSutter]

I predict home town boy RHP Chris Anderson is in the deal as the 3rd or 4th player to come to the Twins.

 

Twins get De Leon, Alverez, Brito, Anderson

Dodgers get Dozier

[jimmer]

He doesn't have the power, or project to have the power to fit a corner outfield spot. Nor has he shown the speed or OBP to make up for it. I don't think he has the skill set to push Eddie Rosario and I think he has less upside than Kepler. I just can't see us being that interested in him. I think upside of Verdugo is Alex Gordon. Decent player with a great arm. But nothing special.

if we could get an Alex Gordon type player that would be a score. Very good player. Better than our protected corner OF starters for next year will be.

[King]

 

if we could get an Alex Gordon type player that would be a score. Very good player. Better than our protected corner OF starters for next year will be.

Gordon was a stud in his prime years (2011 to 2014). Even if Verdugo turns out to be 2007/2008/2015/2016 Gordon that's a nice player to have. Like a Jason Heyward. I don't know how Verdugo projects on defense though, and minor league scouting reports on defense are always iffy.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think people know where to pigeon hole Stewart yet.  So, I wouldn't label him as a #5.  He was a shortstop until I believe his final year or final two years at Illinois State.  He throws 95 with movement and has a nasty change up with enough other secondary stuff to be successful.  His first two outings were skewed by one bad inning in each.  He has great composure and when he came back up he mowed down the Chicago Cubs last August.  I think he gets labeled a #5 because he came out of nowhere.  Believe me there are plenty of Dodgers fans who don't want to do Deleon and Stewart for 2 years of Dozier which tells me it might be the right price.  

 

I think so too. I'd trade Dozier for De Leon and Alvarez in a heartbeat. I'd imagine the Dodgers would push back quite a bit on that. Which is why I think DeLeon and Stewart would be the two main pieces. I'd want at least a low-minor lottery ticket in A ball included in that deal.  

[d-mac]

 

Now to disagree without being disagreeable.
Are the Twins really so strapped for pitching that you would prefer Stewart to Verdugo? Who are those extra pieces that would cause you to make that deal?

 

I'm not a fan of Verdugo. I've stated my case pretty well in the previous posts.

[Lonestar]

Verdugo's scouting report

Verdugo is advanced at the plate for his age, showing precocious feel for understanding the strike zone and recognizing pitches. He has a quick bat from the left side of the plate and figures to hit for a high average, though he makes contact so easily that it cuts into his walk totals. Scouts differ on his power ceiling, with some seeing the aptitude and strength for 20 homers per year and others wonder if he'll have enough pop to profile well if he shifts to an outfield corner.

 

Verdugo spent the majority of his first two pro seasons in center field, making up for average speed with keen instincts. He definitely has the arm strength necessary for right field if he has to move, having hit 94 mph as a high school left-hander and registering 24 assists in 122 games last year. Makeup concerns dogged him in the Draft but club officials credited him with maturing and acting like a professional during his first full season.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I predict home town boy RHP Chris Anderson is in the deal as the 3rd or 4th player to come to the Twins.

That honestly wouldn't be a bad piece. He was a first rounder, and if he could limit the walks, he could potentially be a mid-rotation type guy. That's not bad as a throw in. Not sure how high the ceiling is at this point, but you are talking about a guy who could be a decent player.

[ALessKosherScott]

Can we up this to "....completed in the next 2,400 hours"?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Verdugo's scouting report
Verdugo is advanced at the plate for his age, showing precocious feel for understanding the strike zone and recognizing pitches. He has a quick bat from the left side of the plate and figures to hit for a high average, though he makes contact so easily that it cuts into his walk totals. Scouts differ on his power ceiling, with some seeing the aptitude and strength for 20 homers per year and others wonder if he'll have enough pop to profile well if he shifts to an outfield corner.

Verdugo spent the majority of his first two pro seasons in center field, making up for average speed with keen instincts. He definitely has the arm strength necessary for right field if he has to move, having hit 94 mph as a high school left-hander and registering 24 assists in 122 games last year. Makeup concerns dogged him in the Draft but club officials credited him with maturing and acting like a professional during his first full season.
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

Corner OF that might hit 20 at best, maintain a low walk rate, and high contact rate?  I'm probably in the thanks but no thanks there. You want a bit more bat in the corner (though granted he'd probably be an above average glove).  We have that already in Rosario.

[DaveW]

Can we up this to "....completed in the next 2,400 hours"?

Quiet You!

[King]

 

That honestly wouldn't be a bad piece. He was a first rounder, and if he could limit the walks, he could potentially be a mid-rotation type guy. That's not bad as a throw in. Not sure how high the ceiling is at this point, but you are talking about a guy who could be a decent player.

 

I wouldn't want him as a throw in. Hasn't shown any ability to miss bats as evident by his swinging strike% and K% and a BB/9 of 7.94 for a 24 year old in AA is terrible.. He's probably a release candidate for the Dodgers if he doesn't figure it out next year. He didn't help matters by pitching like garbage in the AFL either.

 

And this tweet says his stuff has taken a step back.

 

Wilson Karaman ‏@vocaljavelins  Sep 1
#Dodgers fmr 1st Rd pick Chris Anderson still struggles to repeat, finish pitches 2 yrs after my first A+ look. Now 89-92 instead of mid-90s

 

Do not want!

[d-mac]

 

Gordon was a stud in his prime years (2011 to 2014). Even if Verdugo turns out to be 2007/2008/2015/2016 Gordon that's a nice player to have. Like a Jason Heyward. I don't know how Verdugo projects on defense though, and minor league scouting reports on defense are always iffy.

 

Maybe it's not the best comp. Just what I thought of when I thought of .265/.320/.415 hitter with a strong arm. Gordon was a much better OBP guy than I remember, nor I have no idea where Verdugo rates defensively- A significant portion of Grodon's value is derived from his defense.