Article: Not-So-Premium Velocity

[Nick Nelson]

Not so long ago, hard-throwing pitchers were in high demand. As triple-digit readings became increasingly common, the Minnesota Twins notoriously lagged far behind. The organization put no shortage of effort into correcting that issue, but with mostly subpar results.

 

Now, the Twins have fireballers to spare. And so do the rest of the league's teams.On Sunday night, Parker and I subbed for Aaron on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. Among the topics discussed was the club's decision to non-tender 22-year-old right-hander Yorman Landa, thus opening a spot on the 40-man roster in advance of this week's Rule 5 draft.

 

Landa has a power arm that has touched 100 MPH. In the past, releasing such a specimen would be unthinkable for a franchise starving for special heat. But Landa's expendability is a sign of the times.

 

In Baseball America's Rule 5 draft preview, JJ Cooper notes that "at least nine pitchers who touched 100 mph or better this year" will be available to the Twins when they select first on Thursday. You can bet that a big fastball alone won't entice the Twins.

 

The past regime has been down that path too many times. Alex Meyer and Jim Hoey were seemingly acquired largely for their overpowering velocity, but the coinciding control issues never went away. J.R. Graham was Minnesota's Rule 5 selection after his velo uptick following a switch to the bullpen caught the eyes of scouts. His 95-MPH heater never translated to dominance.

 

Relievers that can bring the zing are no longer rare commodities, so big radar results in isolation aren't going to generate a whole lot of excitement anymore. It will be interesting to see what other qualities the new decision-makers prioritize. They are all but certain to add a new player in the Rule 5 draft, and there will be plenty of opportunities to find talent through other avenues before and after.

 

To find out which prospects the Twins will be choosing from on Thursday, I highly recommend checking out BA's write-up, which profiles several very intriguing names.

 

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[CJP]

Yimmi Brasoban looks like a solid bullpen arm. Two major league pitches will make him capable for low leverage innings and mop up. We could take a chance on a higher risk/higher velocity pitchers but without a good secondary pitch they are a long shot at best.

[The Wise One]

100 mph balls far out of the zone are of no use. Nor    are pitches that have little movement.

[Seth Stohs]

It is interesting that so many hard-throwers are left unprotected, but each team has its reason. 

 

Like all Rule 5 picks, the thing to remember is that they were left unprotected for a reason. There will be a few misses, but teams have gotten to the point where they don't miss too often. But there are always a couple. 

 

The Twins have a lot of 100+ mph guys now. Chargois, Light, Burdi, Romero, Graterol are all guys that have hit 100. But guys like Quezada, Reed and a few others site in the upper 90s, hitting 97-98 fairly often. 

[Vanimal46]

I'm glad the Twins are moving on from acquiring anyone with a pulse that can throw over 95 MPH... They could find someone throwing 115 MPH, but if they can't locate the pitch, then it provides little value for the pitcher. 

[nicksaviking]

I was happy the Twins attempted to get some hard throwers, there was a clear change of direction after the Alex Wimmers draft.

 

However getting hard throwers alone clearly wasn't the solution as it did not result in missing more bats at the MLB level. I don't know what the solution was but it's clear that at least one person from each of the other 29 organizations did as no other team struggled with that issue like the Twins.

 

This one singular issue shows why an organization can't remain insular and only try to copy league trends without having outside perspective and insight. I'm glad Falvey and Lavine are here, hopefully they keep adding others with unique visions and theories and fix most of our systemic issues.

[USAFChief]

I don't think removing Landa from the 40 man means any of the following:

 

 - "the Twins have fireballers to spare"

 

 - "so do the rest of the league's teams"

 

I think it means the Twins needed an open spot on the 40 mand, and a  22 year old who has been in the organization since 2011 and not advanced past A ball was a logical person to drop, because he has little chance to help the Twins (or any other team) in 2017.

 

The Twins, like every other team, will still be looking at velocity as a desirable trait for their pitching staff, because velocity, in and of itself, is a weapon.  

 

Not the only weapon, but a weapon, and a valuable one.

[HitInAPinch]

In the end, I believe the 100 mph fastball fad will only cause more shoulder injuries than anything else.  Surely, there are freaks of nature like Nolan Ryan.  It just seems like the Twins have had a fair share of ACL injuries in the MiLB. 

[belker]

They used to say the average MLB fastball was 88 or 89 MPH, I forget which...  Now there are guys that throw 92-93 and they are classed as control/finesse guys.  I wonder what the average fastball is.  Do you have to throw 95+ to be considered a hard-thrower now?

[Oxtung]

 

They used to say the average MLB fastball was 88 or 89 MPH, I forget which...  Now there are guys that throw 92-93 and they are classed as control/finesse guys.  I wonder what the average fastball is.  Do you have to throw 95+ to be considered a hard-thrower now?

2016 stats:

 

Mean: 92.1 mph

Median: 91.7 mph

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

The Twins, like every other team, will still be looking at velocity as a desirable trait for their pitching staff, because velocity, in and of itself, is a weapon.  

 

True. All I'm saying is that the number of unprotected hard throwers, as well as Landa being dropped from the 40-man (and subsequently re-signed) indicates that top-tier velocity on its own isn't the draw it once was. 

[Thrylos]

 

I'm glad the Twins are moving on from acquiring anyone with a pulse that can throw over 95 MPH... They could find someone throwing 115 MPH, but if they can't locate the pitch, then it provides little value for the pitcher. 

 

Depends on who the umpire is, how has been calling the game, and how wild the ball is...

[David HK]

On this issue, I'm always reminded of what the late, great Eddie Matthews said--  "I could hit a bullet if it's straight."

 

[Eris]

I think it demonstrates if we incentivize a certain skill set, people will go out and try to achieve that skill set.  In this case, being able to throw a mid-90's fastball is a path to the majors.  In the area that I live (northern NJ), there is a whole industry devoted to teaching young children the mechanics needed to throw hard.  It is almost impossible for a player to be a high school pitcher without his parents spending thousands of dollars in these coaching / player development activities.  At a local DIII school where I teach, pitchers with low 90's fastballs ride the pine.

 

There is a significant downside to the velocity arms race.  Many teenagers, MiLB and MLB players with arm injuries.  On the Mets team, 4 of their 6 stud pitchers (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, and Wheeler) have had TJ surgery.

 

What the current situation also demonstrates is given enough exposure and practice, hitters can catch up to 100 mph pitches, just like they learned to hit sliders.  While I think the velocity arms race is over done, the data does support that higher velocity generates more K's.  Arms are now considered expendable.  Until that changes, the velocity arms race will continue.