Article: Predicting the Twins 40 Man Roster Additions

[Seth Stohs]

By the end of this week, the Minnesota Twins will have to add players to their 40-man roster. The Twins currently have 36 players on their 40-man roster. So the Twins could add as many as four players to the roster unless they remove more players from the 40-man roster, which I assume is likely. Most likely, they will add three to four players.

 

In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we discussed many of the potential transactions that will happen throughout the offseason. Today, I’ll post the players who are most likely to be added to the Twins 40-man roster. We’ll start at #1 with the player most likely to be added, and get through the top 10. Of course, these are just my opinion, so I’d encourage and welcome your thoughts below.Let’s get started… but first, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected on a 40 man roster?

• Players signed at the age of 18 or less in 2012 (signed before end of minor league season)
• Players signed at the age of 19 or more in 2013
• Players signed under the first two categories in previous years.

A player needs to be evaluated based on 1) his talent and ceiling, and 2) his likelihood of being lost in the Rule 5 draft and kept by that team throughout the season.

 

 

Here are the ten players I believe are most likely to be selected, in order of likelihood.

 

 

#1 – RHP Fernando Romero

The Twins, and every team in baseball, are looking for ace, power pitchers. If there’s one guy in the system who could be that, it is Fernando Romero. He missed two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and a knee surgery, but h came back in May this year and was tremendous in Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He’s got a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup. This is the easiest choice of many good choices right now. (He was my #2 Twins prospect after the season.) He signed with the Twins in November of 2011 from the Dominican Republic.

 

#2 – C Mitch Garver

Catchers are incredibly valuable too. As we know, it’s hard to find catchers that can hit and field, and Garver fits into that category. He’s always been able to hit. He was our choice for Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2014 in Cedar Rapids. In 2015, he played well in Chattanooga and in Rochester. Where he has made the biggest strides is defensively. It showed up this year in the pitch framing stats and in his caught stealing percentage. Like Romero, adding Garver to the 40-man roster is a no-brainer. He was the Twins 9th round pick in 2013 out of New Mexico.

 

#3 – OF Daniel Palka

Yes, he strikes out a ton, and he hits for tremendous power. His 35 homers between Chattanooga and Rochester in 2016 make him a pretty easy choice. He appears to be a left-handed version of Adam Brett Walker. Palka came to the Twins a year ago at this time from Arizona in exchange for Chris Herrmann. Herrmann had a terrific 2016 season for the Diamondbacks but the Twins have to feel good about the trade so far. He was Arizona’s 3rd round pick in 2013 out of Georgia Tech.

 

#4 – RHP Felix Jorge

Jorge is still just 22. He signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. Since a tough 2014 in Cedar Rapids, Jorge has been remarkably consistent. In 2015, he completed six innings in 19 of his 22 starts and never went less than five innings. In 14 starts for Ft. Myers in 2016, he went 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He worked six or more innings 13 out of 14 times. In 11 starts in Chattanooga, he worked six or more innings in eight of 11 starts (including his final six starts). He went at least five innings in all 25 of his starts.He has a very easy, smooth motion and delivery, but he can surprise hitters by throwing 93 at times. He throws a ton of strikes and mixes his pitches very well. He was left unprotected a year ago. If he is this time, he’ll very likely be lost.

 

#5 – OF Zack Granite

Granite was the Twins choice for 2016 Minor League Player of the Year. He was the Twins 14th round pick in 2013 out of Seton Hall. After an injury-plaqued 2014 he began 2014 in Cedar Rapids. After a month, he went to the Miracle and played all right. It was somewhat surprising when he began 2016 in Chattanooga, but he took advantage of it. He was their everyday leadoff man. He puts together terrific at bats consistently and profiles as a leadoff hitter. His 56 stolen bases led all of minor league baseball. He can play center field and has great range, though his arm (and Byron Buxton) would push him to left field. (He had a Rock Solid 2016. Here are his thoughts on the season.)

 

#6 – SS Engelb Vielma

Vielma signed with the Twins on September 8, 2011, out of Venezuela. Had he signed a week sooner, he would have been Rule 5 eligible last year. Instead, this is the first year he could be added. The rail-thin shortstop is one of the better defensive shortstops in minor league baseball. He’s got the range and a powerful arm and great instincts. He is also a leader in the infield. Will he hit? That is the question. After hitting .270 (.617) in 2015 in Ft. Myers, he hit .271 (.663) in AA Chattanooga this year. Vielma has very little power, so he will need to find a way to get on base. But his defense is his calling card. (A year ago, he did a Q&A for Twins Daily)

 

#7 – C Stuart Turner

Not all that long ago, catchers were completely defense-minded. As we know, catcher depth is very important to a team. Turner does a terrific job behind the plate, working with pitchers, calling a game and controlling the running game. He spent the last two seasons in Chattanooga. In 2015, he hit .223 (.628) and in 2016, he hit .239 (.686). He did so by increasing his power. He went from 13 to 22 doubles, and he went from four to six homers. At 6-2 and 220 pounds, Turner generally puts together quality at bats and does have the potential to hit some. But, defense is what matters most behind the plate, and Turner has that ability. He was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2013 out of Ole Miss. (Here's a Get To Know Him article on Turner from March 2014.)

 

#8 – RH RP DJ Baxendale

Baxendale was the Twins 10th round pick in 2012 out of Arkansas. He signed shortly after the Razorbacks’ College World Series run that year. He’s been a starter most of his career. After an all-star first half in Chattanooga this year, he moved up to Rochester and into their bullpen. It was at that time that he took off. As a starter in AA this year, he struck out 6.6 per nine innings. Out of the bullpen in AAA, he struck out 10.3 per nine innings. He’s got a good fastball in the low-90s and a terrific slider. With those two pitches, he could develop into a good reliever.

 

#9 – LHP Jason Wheeler

Wheeler, the Twins 8th round pick in 2011 out of Loyola Marymount, was added to the Twins 40-man roster two years ago. Late in that season, he was removed and pitched the Lookouts to the Southern League championship. That’s where he began again in 2016, but he was good for four starts and the Twins had three AAA starters already in the big leagues. Wheeler went to AAA and pitched very well. He was the International League’s starting pitcher in the AAA All-Star Game. He posted a 3.53 ERA in 145.1 innings with the Red Wings. At 6-7, Wheeler has good size. He doesn’t throw real hard, though occasionally hits 94. (Here is a Get To Know Him article on Wheeler from May 2014.)

 

#10 – RHP Aaron Slegers

Slegers is the tallest member of the Twins organization. The 6-11 right-hander has progressed at a steady pace since the Twins selected him in the 5th round of the 2013 draft out of Indiana where he was the Big 10 Pitcher of the Year. He spent a year in Cedar Rapids, a year in Ft. Myers and he spent the 2016 season in Chattanooga. With the Lookouts, he went 10-7 with a 3.41 ERA.

 

 

OTHER ELIGIBLES:

RHP Nick Anderson, RHP Luke Bard, OF Edgar Corcino, RHP Ryan Eades, OF JJ Fernandez, RHP Sam Gibbons, RHP Miguel Gonzalez, IF/OF Niko Goodrum, OF Travis Harrison, 1B Dalton Hicks, LHP David Hurlbut, RHP Zack Jones, 2B Levi Michael, 1B Amaurys Minier, RHP Alex Muren, RHP Brandon Peterson, RHP Williams Ramirez, RHP Dereck Rodriguez, LHP Lewis Thorpe, 2B Rafael Valera, RHP Todd Van Steensel, 2B Ryan Walker.

 

Of that group, Lewis Thorpe is intriguing. He’s got the talent and upside, but he hasn’t pitched for two seasons. Dereck Rodriguez is certainly one to watch. He’s got upside, but despite being 23, he’s still very raw as a pitcher. Zack Jones was drafted a year ago. He’s a candidate to be selected again, though less likely than a year ago. Amaurys Minier signed a big bonus, but he hasn’t even played full-season ball yet.

 

For me, I’d think the first six are the ones that will likely be added with Turner and Baxendale right on the bubble. Looking at it this way is interesting because it’s easy to say “I would protect (this guy) or (that guy),” but it’s hard without factoring in who would need to be removed from the 40-man roster to make room or which other guys need to be added.

 

What do you think? How many do you think will be added?

 

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[Shane Wahl]

Am I really that insane in thinking they should have made room on this roster for all 8 of the top 8?

[terrydactyls]

And Lewis Thorpe

[Cory Engelhardt]

Thorpe and even arguably Goodrum with the top 6.

[goulik]

I'm going to buck the trend and say only the top 4 need protection. I doubt Granite or Vielma stick to an MLB roster all year and I don't see anyone below them on the list sticking either. Even if selected, we will get them back (see Jones).

Now if I was PBO or GM, I may protect others because I am on the inside and know the off season plan and actual roster openings. From the outside looking in though, I am mostly only concerned about those 4.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Am I really that insane in thinking they should have made room on this roster for all 8 of the top 8?

 

I wouldn't say Insane.

 

However, one important thing to remember is that whoever they add must remain on the 40-man roster (unless traded) until spring training. If they plan on signing any free agents to MLB contracts, they have to keep some guys on there that they can drop at that time. 

 

So, it's kind of a risk-reward type of thing. I would remove Juan Centeno like 2 months ago, but if they sign Jason Castro, they need someone to DFA at that time, and if they fill up the 40 man, it's much harder to do. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm going to buck the trend and say only the top 4 need protection. I doubt Granite or Vielma stick to an MLB roster all year and I don't see anyone below them on the list sticking either. Even if selected, we will get them back (see Jones).
Now if I was PBO or GM, I may protect others because I am on the inside and know the off season plan and actual roster openings. From the outside looking in though, I am mostly only concerned about those 4.

 

I don't think that's a bad take. We often fret about losing players that weren't protected. Each year there are 2-3 guys that we think have a real chance of being taken. Last year, Felix Jorge and Zack Jones were two of them. They lost Jones and ended up getting him back. Most years, they don't lose any, or maybe one. 

 

Granite and Vielma could be types that are selected, however. Rule 5 guys don't have to play much to stay on a roster, but they have to be able to contribute something. Granite and Vielma can both fly. They could be used as pinch-runners. They are also good defensively so they can pinch run and be defensive replacements in addition to a start a week or something. 

[Lonestar]

Why is Zack Jones less likely to be drafted this year than last year?

[Lonestar]

The Twins could take Boshers, Kintzler, Centeno, Plouffe, Grossman,D Santana,and even ABW off the 40-man roster and have 12 openings. Others might take of Tonkin.

 

I would hope Centeno's spot is taken by a veteran -- namely Castro. But there is going to be a lot of interest in Castro.

 

I would replace Kintzler with another veteran, like Neftali Feliz. Again, there is going to be a lot of interest.

 

The Twins are going to need another OF and a 4th player for the bench, roughly corresponding with Grossman and Plouffe.

 

Assuming no other guaranteed roster signings, they can protect up to 8. They might want to leave a roster slot or two for their own Rule 5 signings.

[High heat]

Very good point on needing to keep guys who you can cut on your 40 man to sign players.

 

The rule 5 is either high upside guys or guys ready now who are blocked in other systems. Pitchers are easier to hide and let pitch up mop up duty, so Remero and Jorge should be givens to add. Garver is close to the majors and plays a position of great need around the league also a given.

 

Here is my argument for adding Vielma and leaving Palka and Granite off. Vielma has great speed and plays great defense at a premium defensive position. If he hits he has All star talent, he is easy to stick on the end of a bench pinch run and defensive replacement especially in the NL.

 

Palka plays corner outfield and isn't great at it and hits left handed. Hard for a guy to stick on the bench who doesn't add much unless you think he is good enough to be an everyday guy. If he was right handed and mashed lefties I'd have a different opinion. Palka would get drafted but would likely come back to use.

 

Granite is a fourth outfielder, had a great year last year but just doesn't have that high upside. If he did what he did for multiple years or at triple A I might had considered it more but the rule 5 doesn't consistently see guys like Granite get drafted and stashed.

 

I want to keep a spot open as well so we can draft someone in the rule 5. We have the first pick correct?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd definitely add Granite. He's got the skills to stick - pinch-runner, defensive replacement - and has the potential to be a starting outfielder. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Why is Zack Jones less likely to be drafted this year than last year?

He's another year older and hasn't progressed past AA is my guess.... Wouldn't lose any sleep if he were drafted by another team again. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd like to keep Granite, as he's actually the perfect 4th OF to me....

[gSutter]

With 4 open spots I would add Romero, Jorge, and Garver. Leaving a spot open to pick a guy in the rule 5 draft.

 

I would also DFA Bosher, as he is likely the 4th best lefty reliever on our 40 man behind Perkins, Rogers, O'Rourke. Then add Palka.

 

Also DFA Centeno, he doesn't really offer much offensively or defensively. Then add Granite.

 

Finally DFA Molitor's favorite, Danny Santana. I do like his versatility but when looking at the long term he isn't anything more than a utility guy who hasn't improved after breaking on the scene his rookie year. Then add Vielma.

 

I think there is a decent chance all 3 player DFA'd go unclaimed and go to Rochester.

 

Any or all of Plouffe, Santiago, Kintzler could be non tendered to open up spots for free agents, and open up to an estimated $18+ million. To me that's enough payroll to sign a catcher, infield depth, and a reliever. If they sign another lefty reliever I could see a guy like O'Rourke being DFA'd to open another roster spot.

 

[Steve Lein]

I'd keep the top 3 from this list if we're not taking anyone else off.

 

I wouldn't fret about losing Jorge, but I also don't think he'd stick anywhere the whole year. That's how I'd make my decision to not add him. 

 

Granite and Vielma I would consider more than him, he was not the same guy at AA.

[Thrylos]

I'd add Goodrum.  Good chance to replace Escobar as a bench/utility this season (can play SS, 3B, 2B and OF)

 

No need to add Turner.  He cannot hit

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd love to add Thorpe, but he hasn't pitched above low A and hasn't pitched in 2 years. I doubt he can stick, even with a rebuilding team.

[DocBauer]

The Twins are, in reality, a very young and rebuilding team. Young at the core, of course, with a few older veterans, a few of which may not even be on the team next season. And I am all about keeping the most young talent around we can to continue the rebuild. Some will never make it, of course, and some will be role players, but that's OK, you need those too. And some will become anything from solid starters to potential stars.

 

But I do wonder, once in a while, if we fret too much over the 40 man and the rule 5 draft as, usually, only a couple guys are selected from any one team, and most simply aren't kept due to the 25 man roster constraints. We also don't know how much we don't know, as in, how the new regime sees these young prospects, or their intentions for 2017. They might not even fully know at this point!

 

That being said, without getting too immediately wrapped up in how many spots are open due to those let go and the such, I do have strong feelings about a few guys.

 

Romero, Garver, Palka, Jorge and Granite are all definite, IMO. A potential stud pitcher, a potential solid pitcher, for a pitching starved team are no Brainerd. As is a potential 2-way catcher, a LH power source who could possibly play three spots as well as DH, and a defensive OF with BA and OB skills who can run like the wind and play good defense.

 

After those 5, it gets a little harder to figure out.

 

I wouldn't want to lose Vielma, or Goodrum. Vielma has the great glove and speed, but was also shackled a bit this season due to injury. More or less the same with Goodrum. But are either really a risk to be drafted and kept on a roster for the entire season by someone?

 

I'd keep Wheeler if at all possible. He may posses nothing special that is overly projectable, but he's LH, can start, fast tracked his first year or so before a bad 2015, and then pretty much kicked it at AAA last year. Do you really want to risk losing a decent arm like him? I think we can all agree he's already surpassed the likes of Dean and Albers, and I'd hate for the Twins to NOT give him a shot somewhere along the line.

 

Baxendale is the same way. His solid work at AA as a SP wouldn't get him drafted. But to take his game to a different level in AAA as a RP? Despite other quality candidates available, I'd rather not take the risk. As previously pointed out, it's easier to hide a decent arm as the last guy in a bullpen than a position player.

 

Turner is the guy I'm the most mixed about. From all reports, he is a fine defensive catcher. By all reports and numbers, he will work an AB and has some pop. He may yet surprise and develop a better hit tool, at least a good enough one to be a solid reserve catcher. But his bat is still lagging/lacking, and he has yet to play above AA. Even if selected, are we really in danger of losing him permanently?

 

So I have 5 definite.

4 that I'd like to keep, especially the 2 pitchers.

And 1 that I think I'm willing to risk exposing, despite catching being a premium position of general need, including by the Twins.

[DJL44]

The top 4 and Lewis Thorpe (highest upside pitcher in the system) please.

 

I don't think Vielma or Granite will stick on a roster all year. Shake a tree and 10 gloves fall out but only one bat. There are a ton of no-hit CF available as free agents with MLB experience.

 

Turner is a maybe but I doubt he sticks even as a backup all year.

 

I doubt Niko Goodrum makes the big leagues for more than a month total.