Good basestealers also help you avoid double plays and create scoring chance. Madtro almost single handedly got us on the board last night. Revere in the ninth kept us out of two.

 

And they disrupt pitcher's rhythm and IF defenses. Hit and runs create infield gaps for batters to exploit. But the stat guys know better...right....

True. He's been picked off way too many times this season.

You mean every season?

And they disrupt pitcher's rhythm and IF defenses. Hit and runs create infield gaps for batters to exploit. But the stat guys know better...right....

Hit and runs also mess with the batter, forcing them to swing at crap they would otherwise take.

And they disrupt pitcher's rhythm and IF defenses. Hit and runs create infield gaps for batters to exploit. But the stat guys know better...right....

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a stat guy that doesn't believe a speedy runner on first is disruptive and changes how the game is played. The only quantification I've seen about base-stealing is that if you're not successful around 70% of the time, you're actually costing your team runs instead of benefiting it.

In fairness, Span does lead the team with 27 doubles so he's at least been putting himself on second base fairly often without needing to steal. He'll probably finish the season with around 40 doubles and 20 steals. I'll take that.

I'm still confused by the Twin's thinking that Clete Thomas and Komatsu were better answers to our outfield when they shipped Revere to AAA earlier this season. But, then again, they thought Marquis would be a serviceable starter. I agree with whoever said that they are in denial.

Span is a very good baseball player, but he is an outfielder, and they have four in AA. The only way this team gets better is by trading for pitching, and the only position to do that from is the outfield.

Hit and runs also mess with the batter, forcing them to swing at crap they would otherwise take.

Obviously, everything is situational, it makes no sense to HnR with poor contact guys and the power hitters, but it makes a lot of sense with guys that hack alot at a high contact rate, tend to GIDP at a hi %, or hit like Carroll.

Obviously, everything is situational, it makes no sense to HnR with poor contact guys and the power hitters, but it makes a lot of sense with guys that hack alot at a high contact rate, tend to GIDP at a hi %, or hit like Carroll.

That was just a bad example of HnR. (Willingham K/Mauer CS DP, WTF-ouch!)

Edited August 1, 201214 yr by jokin

...The only quantification I've seen about base-stealing is that if you're not successful around 70% of the time, you're actually costing your team runs instead of benefiting it.

I'm curious. Do you know if the 70% finding is the derived from historical results? Or is it simply the mathematics of probabilities using assumed or actual values on the variables?

I'm curious. Do you know if the 70% finding is the derived from historical results? Or is it simply the mathematics of probabilities using assumed or actual values on the variables?

You know, I'm not sure. It's probably been close to ten years since I read that study. I can't remember.

In fairness, Span does lead the team with 27 doubles so he's at least been putting himself on second base fairly often without needing to steal. He'll probably finish the season with around 40 doubles and 20 steals. I'll take that.

It's a very good player - Span is probably my favorite Twin at this point - but I'm just suggesting that we overlook just how valuable he'd be as a 40 double-40 steal guy. His speed is capable of that, his instincts are just brutal.

 

It's almost sad to watch him try to be that guy, but he's just not able to do it. He can't read a pitcher's move to save his life.

Also....Span's home/road splits are amazing. What the hell?

Cristian Guzman was similar to Span, minus the OBP. Tremendously quick, but a horrid base stealer. He was a very good base runner, however, in fact, I'd say he's one of the best I've ever seen live at running bases. He didn't get the triples he did by accident.

You know, I'm not sure. It's probably been close to ten years since I read that study. I can't remember.

The book by Tom Tango. It's derived from actual numbers.

Cristian Guzman was similar to Span, minus the OBP. Tremendously quick, but a horrid base stealer. He was a very good base runner, however, in fact, I'd say he's one of the best I've ever seen live at running bases. He didn't get the triples he did by accident.

No, but he did get help from the concrete under the metrodome turf.