Article: 40-Man Roster Decisions: The Hitters

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins currently have 38 players on their 40-man roster (including the three players still on the 60-Day disabled list). Yesterday, we reviewed the 22 pitchers on the roster, and today, we will review the 16 hitters currently on the roster.

 

On Monday, the Minnesota Twins announced that five players had been outrighted to AAA Rochester. Two were hitters. According to Mike Berardino, Logan Schafer has elected free agency. He showed some impressive self-awareness in the story. “I am a free agent, though, and I’m sure I am way down the priority list for the Twins this busy offseason.”James Beresford can also become a minor league free agent following the completion of the World Series. He would seem to be a strong candidate to come back to the organization on another minor league contract.

 

Speaking of ‘after the World Series,’ that is when Derek Falvey will take over his role as the Twins Chief Baseball Officer. He will have plenty of very important decisions to make throughout the offseason, but today we’ll just discuss the 16 hitters on the 40-man roster. Again, after reading today’s article, we are going to want your thoughts and opinions on who should be added. How many of them are Givens to remain on the roster? Any of the arbitration-eligibles? Who are the guys on the proverbial roster bubble? For this, we are going to assume no trades for now. It is, of course, possible that the Twins make a trade or two before the Winter Meetings which would effect this as well.

 

The Twins have six arbitration-eligible players, including two hitters. There are other articles on the arbitration-eligibles and (Coming Soon!) there will be more in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook.

• Eduardo Escobar
• Trevor Plouffe

FREE AGENT

 

Just one player currently on the 40-man roster will automatically become a free agent after the World Series. That player is catcher Kurt Suzuki. It is highly unlikely that he will be brought back, though certainly not impossible.

 

THE GIVENS (Assuming no trades)

• Byron Buxton - High draft pick. Top prospect. Yes, he struggled in the big leagues in 2015 and through August of 2016. However, we also saw September, when he put together an incredible month. We saw what he can be offensively. We already know what he is defensively. And he’s just 22. Easy choice.
• Brian Dozier - I mean, the guy just hit 42 home runs in 2016. He posted an .886 OPS. And he’s got two more years left on his contract. Could he be traded? It’s certainly possible, but otherwise, he will be on the roster. Not much more to say about that.
• Max Kepler - Was named the Twins top rookie by Twins Daily and the Baseball Writers. Certainly had his ups and downs in his first full-time big league experience, but the 23-year-old showed the potential we started seeing in 2015.
• Jorge Polanco - Polanco finally got the opportunity to play in the big leagues, pretty much every day, after August 1st. Can he play shortstop? He should get a shot in 2017. Regardless, Polanco has an exciting future ahead of him and is a given. He will be out of options next season.
• Joe Mauer - Let’s see. Big contract. No trade clause. He’s a given, assuming he wants to keep playing.
• John Ryan Murphy - It was a difficult season for the backstop acquired a year ago from the Yankees. However, he is good defensively and in the past has shown more offensively than he did in 2016. Still just 25, he’ll be on the roster in 2017.
• Byungho Park - He came in with a lot of hype after hitting 105 homers over his previous two seasons in Korea. He showed power when healthy, hitting 22 home runs in 93 games. Unfortunately, contact issues meant that 10 of the homers came in 31 games in Rochester. He had wrist/hand injuries that may or may not have contributed to his struggles. With his power potential, he remains a given.
• Eddie Rosario - Certainly he has his flaws, the most obvious being his complete lack of control of the strike zone. However, Rosario is immensely talented and can do a lot of good on the baseball field. Just 25, he’s a given to remain on the 40-man roster.
• Miguel Sano - Most will admit that 2016 was a difficult year for Sano on several levels, but even in a “bad” season he hit 25 homers. He can be much better which is scary to think about, especially for AL Central pitchers.
• Kennys Vargas - He will be out of options in 2017, so he’ll need to make the 25-man roster. He didn’t hit for average, but finally showed patience and a bunch of extra-base power in 2016. That likely pushed him from the bubble to a given.

There are ten hitters who are "givens' to be on the Twins 40-man roster. In addition, there are two arbitration-eligible hitters. In my opinion, Eduardo Escobar should be nearly a given to stay on the roster and be offered arbitration. Most likely, he will be a reserve infielder, but he could get time at third base or shortstop depending upon how other situations play out. Trevor Plouffe is a much more difficult decision. 2016 was a frustrating season Plouffe, but when healthy, he can play solid defense at third base and be relied upon for 18 to 20 homers. For one year and $9 million, it’s not unreasonable to bring him back. I just think it’s pretty unlikely.

 

Here are the hitters remaining on the 40-man roster who remain question marks for the roster at this point. As a reminder, room still needs to be made on the roster for players who need to be added to the 40-man roster or potentially lost to the Rule 5 draft. Of the below names, the front office will need to determine if they prefer to keep the current guy or go with a potential Rule 5 selection. There are a lot of difficult decisions.

 

ON THE BUBBLE

• Adam Brett Walker - For me, he would be a given to remain on the roster. He just turned 25, and he has moved up the organizational ladder, continuing to show power. But there are the strikeouts and concerns about his defense.
• Juan Centeno - For me, he would have been removed from the 40-man roster already. I’ve tweeted several times that I don’t recall seeing a worse defensive catcher (maybe Matthew Lecroy) in team history. He can hit a little and he’s only 26, so maybe he could stick.
• Robbie Grossman - For me Grossman is a given to remain on the roster. He had a terrific on-base percentage. He can also hit left-handed pitching quite well. He could be an ideal platoon candidate. But his defense is so weak in the outfield that a new regime might have another opinion.
• Danny Santana - Currently on the 60-day disabled list, he will need to be removed from that soon. He is certainly a terrific athlete. He can play in the outfield or the infield (not necessarily well, but he can play them), but he just hasn’t shown any offense since that incredible rookie season in 2014. He’s is out of options and just can’t be guaranteed a roster spot.

POTENTIAL 40-MAN ROSTER ADDS

 

Real quickly, here is an incomplete list of hitters who would need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster or risk being lost in the Rule 5 draft (with my thoughts on likelihood of them being added):

• Mitch Garver - Given
• Zack Granite - Highly likely
• Daniel Palka - Highly likely
• Engelb Vielma - Likely
• Stuart Turner - Bubble

So there you have it, a crib sheet review of the hitters on the Minnesota Twins current 40 (or 38?) man roster. As I see it, there are 10 easy choices to keep on the roster. There are two hitters who are arbitration-eligible. Neither is a given. There are four hitters who I believe are on the 40-man roster bubble. To make matters more confusing, there are four or five hitters who need to be considered for addition to the 40-man roster.

Between yesterday’s review of the pitchers on the 40-man roster and today’s review of the hitters, we’ve got information to hand over to Derek Falvey to help in his decision. Discuss the options below, and let us know what your transactions would be.

 

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[Shane Wahl]

I would definitely add all five of those hitters. I agree about Centeno. I no longer care about Santana, and I have doubts about Grossman. Plouffe's time should have come a long time ago--it is incomprehensible to me.

[wsnydes]

It's time for this team to start getting even younger.  Plouffe's time in MN should be up.  Centeno should also be gone.  I'm trying to pretend that Santana doesn't exist.  Grossman is fine as a platoon/DH, emphasis on DH.  I like the five you listed as adds.  Keeping Centeno at the expense of exposing Turner or Garver makes no sense to me.  I'm hoping one of them can earn their way north in the spring.  

 

For the pitchers, I was more about team direction than names.  I'm that way to a degree with the position players too, but I think there is a bit more separation in the position player ranks than the pitchers.  My biggest concern is about a definitive direction the team is heading.  That should be going younger and building towards the future, which means jettisoning older players like Plouffe or stopgaps like Centeno.

 

 

[Eris]

I would keep Stuart Turner.  Good defensive catcher are premium and he would likely be lost to Rule 5.  I agree about Centeno.  John Ryan Murphy would be on the bubble.

 

Palka, Walker, Park, and I might add Sano to this list are all offensive first players with high K%.  I would trade 2 of them.  Sano might have the most value to trade, albeit diminished from his rookie year.  

 

I would keep Vielma and probably let both Escobar and D. Santana go.  A utility infielder should be able to play great defense.

 

I would not protect Grossman, He was responsibe for -21 DRS.  Would either Walker or Palka be that bad? 

[Vanimal46]

I would add Vargas to the bubble list, and don't feel he's a given. 

Plouffe has to go. 

I'd be a very happy fan never seeing Centeno, Grossman, and D Santana in a Twins uniform again. 

Add Garver, Palka, and Granite to the 40 man. 

[beckmt]

Both Centeno and Grossman have value.  Danny Santana is a meh to me, but we could need his roster spot.  I would add the 5 given and not add Turner.  Would not like losing him, but something has to give and I do not think he could stick all year with another club.

[Mike Sixel]

100% keep:

Byron Buxton 
Max Kepler 
Jorge Polanco 
Joe Mauer
John Ryan Murphy
Byungho Park
Eddie Rosario 
Miguel Sano 

Mitch Garver
Zack Granite 
Daniel Palka 
Engelb Vielma 

edit: forgot Escobar

 

Trade if given a great deal:

Brian Dozier

 

Probably keep:

Adam Brett Walker

Kennys Vargas

Stuart Turner

 

I wouldn't keep:

Trevor Plouffe (though he's more on the bubble for me)

Juan Centeno - Just not that good at anything

Robbie Grossman - terrible on defense, terrible. 
Danny Santana- can't hit, can't field, somehow doesn't run the bases well

 

Edited October 21, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[DocBauer]

I generally agree with everything you say Seth. I admit to being torn on Centeno and Turner both. Not overly impressed by Centeno, but a solid LH stick as a reserve catcher is tempting. And I'm not entirely convinced Turner would be selected or kept by a selecting team at this point.

 

Also torn on Grossman. I like him as a 5th OF/DH/PH who could play in the field occassionally. But I don't like him as the 4th OF. I'd rather see the Twins sign someone for that spot and allow Granite, Palka, Walker more time.

 

I also agree on moving on from Plouffe, especially since I think Molitor would feel compelled to play him daily. But I think there is room on the roster for a quality bench guy, and someone mentioned Lawrie as a possibility some time ago. I could get behind a move like that. And while I do think it's time for Plouffe and the Twins to go a different direction, I wouldn't be upset by a 1 year, low cost deal coming off a poor and injury plagued season as a each bat who can play a couple spots and DH.

[Mike Sixel]

Unless you want Plouffe to play 3B, in case Sano can't, I just can't justify him on this roster.

 

Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Park---where does Plouffe really fit...but I think Escobar can play 3B in a pinch, maybe Dozier....I'd definitely try to sign a decent AAA 3B from another system, or ask for one back in trade. Doesn't need to be a great prospect, but needs to be able to play some if Sano can't.

[wsnydes]

 

Unless you want Plouffe to play 3B, in case Sano can't, I just can't justify him on this roster.

 

Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Park---where does Plouffe really fit...but I think Escobar can play 3B in a pinch, maybe Dozier....I'd definitely try to sign a decent AAA 3B from another system, or ask for one back in trade. Doesn't need to be a great prospect, but needs to be able to play some if Sano can't.

I agree with this.  I'm willing to let 3B be in a state of flux next season.  Let Sano have a longer leash and determine for you if he can play the position or not.  I'm not sure I've seen enough either way yet.  

 

Either at the trade deadline or during the following offseason, you can target 3B if you need to.  No sense in blocking people or creating roster issues now if you don't need to.  I think they need to let Sano sink or swim at the position.

 

My approach to this offseason and heading into the next one is to determine what the organization needs heading forward.  That should have been done this past season, but in many regards it wasn't.  Let the kids play next season and address obvious needs at the trade deadline or in the next offseason to make a real push in 2018.

Edited October 21, 2016 by wsnydes

[Vanimal46]

Letting Sano sink or swim at 3B is an option. Time will tell if he's dedicating this winter to honing his craft at the position. 

OR... Sign 3B Justin Turner, a very good defensive and offensive player at the position, and let Sano to 1B happen earlier than anticipated. In this hypothetical situation, I'd lean towards this option. Rotation of Sano/Mauer/Vargas at 1B/DH. 

[Thrylos]

Few names missing on the adds to protect, and more importantly Nico Goodrum's who can a break through season last year hitting .275/.352/.464 and can provide flexibility in 3B, SS, OF.  Kinda like the Escobar and Santana roles, but with more potential.  And solves the "Keep Plouffe to back up Sano, just in case" issue) Someone will snag him, if the Twins do not add.

 

I thought about the catching situation in 2017 (and wrote about it in my 40 man roster spot...)  For me Garver and Murphy, unless the Twins target a young MLB-ready C in a Dozier and/or Santana trade, should be the next MLB-level catchers.  One of Centeno and Turner should be on the 40-man.  And you have a catcher with pretty horrible blocking skills (the rest of his D is ok) and a catcher who is worse hitting than Butera. Who wins? I'd say Centeno because of his LH bat that hit .265/.326/.424 against RHPs and would be more useful in situational plays at the MLB-level than Turner.  You hardly make substitutions for defense at catcher.  However with 2 outs and bases loaded with a RHP and Murphy with his career .226/.268/.295 against RHPs (he is actually hitting fairly reasonably against LHPs) up, Centeno might win you a game...

 

Plouffe has to go.

 

Who would I rather have?  Grossman or Palka?  No-brainer, Palka.  Grossman's got to go.  Granite can be a decent OF backup if needed.

 

The only other name missing is one who I am afraid that a team might pull a Johan Santana on the Twins:  Amaurys Minier. I have been going back and forth on this because of the level he has been playing, but the guy has so much potential that I'd hate to see him gone.  And I would gladly give up Plouffe's (or Escobar's that Vielma and Goodrum cover) spot to protect him.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be open to Sano at 1B.....but not thrilled to give up on 3B just yet, plus you have Mauer, Park, and Vargas to play 1B. heck, I'd be ok with Sano at DH full time, if that makes the most sense. It is, imo, bunk that you can't "relegate" someone that young to DH....if he can't field, let him DH full time. DH is a position. But, for now, I'd see if he can play 3B.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I would keep Stuart Turner.  Good defensive catcher are premium and he would likely be lost to Rule 5.  I agree about Centeno.  John Ryan Murphy would be on the bubble.

 

Palka, Walker, Park, and I might add Sano to this list are all offensive first players with high K%.  I would trade 2 of them.  Sano might have the most value to trade, albeit diminished from his rookie year.  

 

I would keep Vielma and probably let both Escobar and D. Santana go.  A utility infielder should be able to play great defense.

 

I would not protect Grossman, He was responsibe for -21 DRS.  Would either Walker or Palka be that bad? 

 

Vielma isn't ready yet. He may be a year out, maybe a little more. I don't think he'd be ready for an MLB utility infield job. That's why I'd keep Escobar. 

 

Grossman's offense makes him a consideration... His defense puts him on the bubble. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Few names missing on the adds to protect, and more importantly Nico Goodrum's who can a break through season last year hitting .275/.352/.464 and can provide flexibility in 3B, SS, OF.  Kinda like the Escobar and Santana roles, but with more potential.  And solves the "Keep Plouffe to back up Sano, just in case" issue) Someone will snag him, if the Twins do not add.

 

I thought about the catching situation in 2017 (and wrote about it in my 40 man roster spot...)  For me Garver and Murphy, unless the Twins target a young MLB-ready C in a Dozier and/or Santana trade, should be the next MLB-level catchers.  One of Centeno and Turner should be on the 40-man.  And you have a catcher with pretty horrible blocking skills (the rest of his D is ok) and a catcher who is worse hitting than Butera. Who wins? I'd say Centeno because of his LH bat that hit .265/.326/.424 against RHPs and would be more useful in situational plays at the MLB-level than Turner.  You hardly make substitutions for defense at catcher.  However with 2 outs and bases loaded with a RHP and Murphy with his career .226/.268/.295 against RHPs (he is actually hitting fairly reasonably against LHPs) up, Centeno might win you a game...

 

Plouffe has to go.

 

Who would I rather have?  Grossman or Palka?  No-brainer, Palka.  Grossman's got to go.  Granite can be a decent OF backup if needed.

 

The only other name missing is one who I am afraid that a team might pull a Johan Santana on the Twins:  Amaurys Minier. I have been going back and forth on this because of the level he has been playing, but the guy has so much potential that I'd hate to see him gone.  And I would gladly give up Plouffe's (or Escobar's that Vielma and Goodrum cover) spot to protect him.

 

I like Niko. I do think that he could develop into what they wanted Santana to be, so I probably should have put him on the bubble. Was very glad to hear earlier this week that the Twins had re-signed him to a minor league deal. 

 

As for Minier, I'd be shocked if he was selected in the Rule 5 draft after striking out so much in Elizabethton. I mean, Santana had at least spent time in Low A when the Twins traded for him.

[Steve Lein]

I'd probably keep Walker and Grossman on for now.

 

Grossman can be okay in a platoon, but I would definitely limit his OF exposure. Centeno and Santana don't need to be there.

 

Garver, Granite, Palka, and Vielma I would add. Escobar and Plouffe will probably stay too, but if I had to choose one it would be Escobar.

[HitInAPinch]

Eduardo Escobar needs to be back with the Twins. 

1st I think he's the Twins starting Short Stop.  He also filled in at 3rd last year. 

2nd, I don't really believe Polanco is a starting SS right now.  As far as being graceful defensively, Polanco and Sano are on the same level.  Not good, not hideous  :-) 

Right now, I see Polanco as the utility guy getting a lot of playing time.  Sano needs to hit more consistently to be a starting 3rd bagger.

 

Plouffe doesn't HAVE to go.  I just don't see a spot for him. 

Grossman should go.  Slow-footed, mediocre arm.

DanSan:  I've always liked him, but realistically, is there a place for him?  Go.

 

I'm still working on the whole conversation with the new PoBO:  Hey Derek Falvey, we really need to trade the guy that just hit 42 HR's last year.  LOL

[HitInAPinch]

 

I would be open to Sano at 1B.....but not thrilled to give up on 3B just yet, plus you have Mauer, Park, and Vargas to play 1B. heck, I'd be ok with Sano at DH full time, if that makes the most sense. It is, imo, bunk that you can't "relegate" someone that young to DH....if he can't field, let him DH full time. DH is a position. But, for now, I'd see if he can play 3B.

Same, here.  Not willing to move him around just yet or off 3rd just yet.  Need to see what kind of shape he's in coming into Spring Training.  Show me the dedication and take it from there. 

[DocBauer]

Agree on Sano at 3B. I remain convinced that more time and work, possibly a little better conditioning, he can be at least solid there. His arm is excellent, and I've always been surprised how well he seems to charge the ball. The Twins did him no favors, in regard to 3B defense, in their handling of him last season.

 

I don't know that the Twins really need a backup plan at 3B necessarily. I just think someone who COULD play a solid 3B and another position as a bench option would be nice.

 

If Dozier is gone, you need at least one more infielder to be brought in from somewhere to compete with Escobar for the SS/utility spot. Even with 4 OF and a pair at 1B/DH, that leaves a spot open for such a player.

 

I also like the idea of a quality AAAA level 3B, probably another infielder or two as well. Rochester looks a little light in the infield right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Rochester looks barren outside the OF right now.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Rochester looks barren outside the OF right now.

 

Which is why I might advocate trades like the Nunez/Mejia deal where they're giving up middling veterans for near-ready talent (whatever the position, but obviously focusing on pitching). 

[Loosey]

Considering Grossman was released by the Indians this year already.  I assume Falvey had some sort of say in that decision.  So based on that, his terrible defense and his known ceiling and floor I am going to guess he is left off the 40 man.  

 

I think he is the sort of player that fits the mold of a deep bench bat for team already set with known quality veteran OFer's who needs a guy who can hit lefties when asked and play the field as little as possible.  The Twins need to use their roster spots on youth to see who can make a long-term impact on the team.

 

[Rosterman]

Nike Goodrum is one to consider. Believe he will also be a minor league free agent, thus he could just walk to another team. Is he more valuable to the organization than, say, Danny Santana or Robbie Grossman.

 

It's these fringe guys, or a couple of players lower down in the minors that won't be AA/AAA guys right now but could be rgabbed in the minor league portion.

 

Someone mentioned turner. Happily, the Twins didn't advance him. He is still too rough to be held all season as a third catcher even.

 

Adam Walker? If the Twins removed him from the 40-man, some team would grab him immediately, which rubs salt in the wounds that the Twins didn't expose him to major league pitching in September to just see how good/bad he may be.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Considering Grossman was released by the Indians this year already.  I assume Falvey had some sort of say in that decision.  So based on that, his terrible defense and his known ceiling and floor I am going to guess he is left off the 40 man.  

 

I think he is the sort of player that fits the mold of a deep bench bat for team already set with known quality veteran OFer's who needs a guy who can hit lefties when asked and play the field as little as possible.  The Twins need to use their roster spots on youth to see who can make a long-term impact on the team.

 

Grossman had an opt-out in his contract that he used. At the time, Cleveland's OF was full, Naquin was playing well, Marlon Byrd might have been around and Michael Brantley was about to come back. . Little did they know that they'd need him a few weeks later. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nike Goodrum is one to consider. Believe he will also be a minor league free agent, thus he could just walk to another team. Is he more valuable to the organization than, say, Danny Santana or Robbie Grossman.

 

It's these fringe guys, or a couple of players lower down in the minors that won't be AA/AAA guys right now but could be rgabbed in the minor league portion.

 

Someone mentioned turner. Happily, the Twins didn't advance him. He is still too rough to be held all season as a third catcher even.

 

Adam Walker? If the Twins removed him from the 40-man, some team would grab him immediately, which rubs salt in the wounds that the Twins didn't expose him to major league pitching in September to just see how good/bad he may be.

 

Like I wrote above, and tweeted a few days ago, the Twins have already signed Niko Goodrum to bring him back in 2017.

[Thrylos]

 

Rochester looks barren outside the OF right now.

 

Not really.  Hopefully they will get rid of aging AAAA players and bring up most of the 2016 Chattanooga team that finished 10 games over .500.  Pitching could be Rochester's strength. 

[dxpavelka]

Grossman might be OK as a platoon/DH but keeping him in that role means taking big league at bats away from the likes of Vargys, Park, Walker, Palka and even Rosario & Kepler.  No thanks.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

[DocBauer]

Like I wrote above, and tweeted a few days ago, the Twins have already signed Niko Goodrum to bring him back in 2017.

 

I had missed this somehow until today. Very happy to hear it. Always thought he might be a quality late bloomer. Personally, I think the Twins initially messed with him a bit by moving him around so much. In the long term, however, it could make him a versatile piece to the future roster.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

WOW!! This is tougher than it looks. Easy to cut/non-tender Plouffe and Grossman. Easy to keep Buxton and Escobar and then trade Dozier or Polanco and put the other at 2B. Now you have got a whole bunch of offensive threats with no defensive ability. I would try Sano at 3B, and rotate Park, Mauer (untradeable) and Vargas at 1B/DH. That's 7. Keep Walker and Palko on the 40 man...probably Nico too. As to the rest...don't know--trade some for pitching and catching help...speaking of catcher...to me Centano, Murphy, Turner and whomever are all blah...find a catcher keep Turner as back up...this team needs a major overhaul...focus on keeping guys under 25 with potential...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not really.  Hopefully they will get rid of aging AAAA players and bring up most of the 2016 Chattanooga team that finished 10 games over .500.  Pitching could be Rochester's strength. 

 

I can't see any of them starting in AAA in spring, and they have no infielders either. I guess they are set at catcher.....but we'll see.