Article: Pondering A Plan For Jorge Polanco

[Nick Nelson]

As we gear up for a crucial Minnesota Twins offseason, we have talked – and will continue to talk – about pitching a great deal. But on the other side, Jorge Polanco stands out as one of the most pivotal figures in the organization's planning.

 

Today, we'll take a look at five options for handling the talented young infielder heading into 2017.Polanco has been a longtime star in Minnesota's system. He has been among the Top 10 on Twins Daily's top prospect list each of the past three years, performing well at each level of the minors. In 2014 he became the youngest Twin to debut in the majors since Joe Mauer a decade before. And this year, in his first prolonged taste of the big leagues, he put up very strong numbers and looked every bit the part of an everyday MLB player.

 

But the problem now, as it has been for the past few seasons, is that there's no obvious full-time opening for the 23-year-old switch-hitter. And while patience has been an affordable luxury in the past, that is no longer the case.

 

Polanco will be out of options in 2017, meaning that the Twins will need to keep him on the roster out of spring training or lose him. That reality will weigh heavily as they lay things out for next season.

 

As I see it, the Twins have five different routes they can take with Polanco. Let's run through the merits of each:

 

1. Starting Shortstop

 

For a few reasons, this would appear to be the most likely outcome. First, because the Twins don't really have another strong candidate for the position. Eduardo Escobar is the only alternative and he had a tough year that ended on an extremely sour note (.384 OPS in September). Second, because Polanco was Paul Molitor's exclusive starter at shortstop in the final six weeks of the season. That would seem to set the stage for a full-time assignment going forward.

 

However, there's a problem here, and it's a big one. Polanco is not a good defender at shortstop. The organization had essentially given up on playing him there in the minors before he was called up. Defensive metrics rate him very poorly at the position. Even Molitor, the manager who wrote his name in at shortstop daily in the final stretch of the campaign, would only say that Polanco "handled it fairly well" and was "not going to get an 'A' grade."

 

The Twins need to vastly improve in terms of run prevention, and defense is a big part of that. Outside of catcher, shortstop is arguably the most important position on the field. In my opinion, rolling with a subpar glove like Polanco is simply not an option.

 

2. Starting Second Baseman

 

I think everyone can agree that this is Polanco's best position. It minimizes his primary weakness (his arm) and allows his strengths to shine. It's where he spent all of his time in the Dominican Winter League last year and in Rochester this year before joining the Twins for good.

 

Of course, he happens to be blocked at this position by Minnesota's best player. As long as Brian Dozier is on the roster, second base is off limits. I do think the possibility of a Dozier trade is reasonably strong, so Polanco could still end up here. But as things stand, it's not an option.

 

3. Starting Third Baseman

 

Sort of an intriguing possibility. If the Twins want to move on from Trevor Plouffe and his expensive 2017 commitment but aren't ready to entrust Miguel Sano with the position following a very shaky defensive showing this year, Polanco could be a solution. He didn't look especially good in his nine starts at the hot corner this year, but could improve if it is his focus heading into the offseason and spring training.

 

However, the downsides here are clear. His arm might play a little better at third than short, but still would hardly be an asset. And while his bat stands out at a middle infield spot, that's less true at an offense-driven corner position. This year, American League third basemen posted the highest OPS of any position other than DH.

 

4. Backup or Utility Man

 

This idea has its appeal. In a utility role, Polanco would be able to fill in a few times per week around the diamond, and would be an excellent fallback if (when?) one of the starters fizzled or got hurt. With his ability to swing from both sides and his solid speed, he would be a handy piece of have on the bench.

 

Yet, it feels like a bit of a waste. It's also not especially fair to the player. Polanco has shown enough during his time in the majors to justify an everyday role. He's still in a developmental stage and that could be hindered by a lack of regular playing time.

 

5. Trade Him

 

I really wonder if this is what they are leaning toward. In the latter part of the season, Polanco was constantly playing shortstop and frequently batting third in the order. Does the team really view him as that caliber of player, or were they simply showcasing him for the rest of the league?

 

Everyone knows Polanco would be fine at second, but now teams have plenty of film to evaluate and make their own judgments about his proclivity at short. The Twins know that if they want to acquire impact talent via trade, it might mean giving up some of their own coveted young players. Polanco is among the only ones among that group that could really be viewed as expendable.

 

What it comes down to is how much the rest of the execs around the league value Polanco. It doesn't make sense to give up a young, controllable middle infielder who has proven his capabilities at the major-league level unless you're getting a significant haul in return. Given that Polanco has a well-rounded yet unspectacular skill set, I do wonder if a sufficient offer is going to come.

 

What would be your plan for Polanco this offseason?

 

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[bluechipper]

My plan would be for Polanco to open the season at SS. No, his defense is not at the level that you'd want, but his offensive upside makes up for a lot of that. Plus, if he's not the starting SS, I don't think Eduardo Escobar is enough of a defensive upgrade to justify putting Polanco in a utility role.

[Kwak]

Starting SS--as long as we remember that Polanco isn't going to be entrenched there, and will have to yield considerable PT to Escobar et al.

 

Starting 2B--requires trading Dozier. This would be my preferred choice of those mentioned. But, Polanco shouldn't be entrenched there either, he's only the first choice at 2B.

 

Starting 3B--No. Unless there has been a rash of injuries similar to tackles on the Vikings.

 

Back-up or Utility--Almost as good of an option as SS, and is the fallback position when Molitor can't 

tolerate his "defense" any longer.

 

Trade--He has no trade value. Please consider the statement "out of options" if anybody wanted him they would just wait for the Twins to waive Polanco. Also consider that if Polanco isn't good enough to make the worst team in baseball why would anybody think he would help their team--it just doesn't make any sense.

[KirbyDome89]

Polanco as SS could be dicey if Sano is playing 3B. I think some of the offensive that Polanco may lack at 3B can be found at 2B by Dozier, 1B if Vargas platoons, and an improving OF of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler. It isn't an ideal fit but giving up a little offense at 3B won't devastate this team. I agree, a utility role isn't appealing, but if Molitor uses Polanco like Dantana (i.e. playing him nearly every day) then I can stomach the utility role. Obviously 2B is the preferred spot for Polanco. I  can see scenarios where options 1-4 work out. If somebody is traded, I hope its Dozier. He'll absolutely return more than Polanco, and he has only 2 years left on a good contract before free agency. Given the outlook for 2017 I think it makes much more sense to trade Dozier.

[bluechipper]

 

Trade--He has no trade value. Please consider the statement "out of options" if anybody wanted him they would just wait for the Twins to waive Polanco. Also consider that if Polanco isn't good enough to make the worst team in baseball why would anybody think he would help their team--it just doesn't make any sense.

Really? He's made several top 100 lists the last couple of years. It'll be years before the Twins, or any team, considers waiving Polanco.

[Shane Wahl]

Starting SS. 

[curt1965]

I agree with Shane- starting SS. He actually is NOT horrible, and would be a great bridge to 2018. His bat will make up for a lot of defensive questions.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Trade--He has no trade value.

 

He just turned 23 and has been remarkably consistent through all levels - .280/.340/.410 ish throughout his minor league career with a 109 OPS+ in his limited time with the big club. He certainly has trade value; the question is whether he has more value as a young player on a rebuilding team than he would return in a trade. 

 

I suppose the supplementary to that question is whether Polanco + the return from a Dozier trade > Dozier + the return from a Polanco trade.

 

It all depends on the trade market, but I would plan to roll with him as the starting SS in 2017 unless the Twins are blown away in the offseason in a trade for Dozier, in which case I'd happily slide him across to 2B. There's a reasonable prospect Dozier gets traded in the next 18 months anyway, if not this offseason, at which point you put Polanco at 2B and hope Gordon is ready at SS.

[mickeymental]

stick him at short with sano at third. let them take their lumps.

[The Wise One]

Jorge Polanco has a woba of .326. Last year that would put him as 15th best hitting 2b. It makes it tough to   trade him as a significant  upgrade over what someone else already has. Trading him as a cheap alternative player  wouldn't bring back a significant prospect.  Play and develop him as a SS or hope that a team falls in love with Dozier and well pay a fair price. Shortstop seems far more likely

Edited October 13, 2016 by The Wise One

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This team needs to improve pitching and fielding. Keeping both Polonco and Dozier does neither.

 

Gotta trade one of them and get the biggest impact possible for a high end young starting pitcher. I think Dozier has more value and would bring a better return. I would imagine Escobar would be as good or better than Polanco at SS, need to find a better solution, but Esco isn't a bad utility option.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Sconnie

[Yossarian]

GMs around the league will run through the same progression and only give value for Polanco as a 2B, but an unproven one. So, I would only trade Polanco if offered a startling good pitching prospect, which is unlikely. In the meantime, I'd start him at 2B. If he hits as expected, it will increase his trade value. Move Dozier to LF. Brian has more arm than Polanco and runs very well. If he's adeqaute defensively and retains his offense, that will improve his trade value and plug a gaping hole in the lineup leaving low-OBP, good-defense Rosario as the OF backup. Food for thought: how many IFs have moved to the OF successfully in recent years in forward-thinking organizations like the Cubs, Rays and, ..., Indians?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the TD consensus is to trade BD and install Polanco there. That's where I am.

 

That said, Polanco does have value. He's young, has 5 or 6 seasons remaining under control, has had stellar minor league numbers, and pretty decent major league ones. Is there risk there?  Sure, but it's low. The question is what the reward would look like. That said, I think it would be downright foolish for the Twins to trade him. I really hope option 5 is not on the table here. I've got to think it's option 2. I'd rather him not be the SS, for no other reason than I think it would be odd to rely on BD knowing he is either gone after 2018 or very expensive during what would be his decline phase (which to be fair could start as soon as this season, asking him to hit another 40 HR is asking a lot).

 

I've got to think the smart move is trading BD. Polanco won't likely upgrade Dozier. He may never upgrade Dozier, but what he can be is above average with the bat and glove at an up the middle position. A high OBP and a low 800s OPS with above average defense is still a fine player, and if trading the 900s OPS guy with sub par defense nets a top shelf pitcher, the team is better off in both the short term and long term.

[Vanimal46]

I will continue to bear the drum of trading Dozier and letting Polanco take over 2B full-time.

[mazeville]

 

I really wonder if this is what they are leaning toward. In the latter part of the season, Polanco was constantly playing shortstop and frequently batting third in the order. Does the team really view him as that caliber of player, or were they simply showcasing him for the rest of the league?

 

Yeah, the problem with this is that the regime at Target Field is changing. So any alleged showcase could be dismissed with the presence of Derek Falvey.

 

Personally, I think the trade Brian Dozier scenario is the most likely given where the Twins are at and what they need. You trade Jorge Polanco when you need to trade for a veteran because you're close to contention. You trade Brian Dozier when you need prospects to help your team improve.

 

This team is definitely in the latter category.

[Blackjack]

If you can't get a good offer for Dozier, keep him, with the idea/hope that some contending team will have an injury at 2nd base, making them more willing to offer a good deal before the 2017 trade deadline.

[Thrylos]

Hard to criticize the guys defense at SS when the Twins have moved him all over the place the season after Baseball America rated him the best defensive SS in the FSL (scroll down.)  One has to realize that Polanco, outside of the Twins farm brass that for some reason do not like his play at SS, has been seen as a better than average defender.  In addition to the above, BA rated him the Twins best defensive infielder in 2009 and 2010 (same link.)  

 

The Twins' talent "evaluators" and "developers" messed with him by not letting him develop in the position.   It is hard to play SS well right away, after you play 2B only for 2 seasons.

 

Let the kid play a full season or two at SS and then we can talk about his defense.

 

 

[mudcat14]

I can see not wanting to trade Dozier after the season he had, but is he locked in at 2B?  If Polanco can be considered for 3B, why not Dozier?  Brian certainly fits the offensive profile of a third baseman, plus is veteran enough that he could probably handle the position switch better than the youngster.

[Darius]

This is just my opinion, but I see only two viable options here:

 

1). Everyday 3B with Sano moving to 1B/DH. I think this is the best option for both players (mostly Sano), assuming there are not major roster changes. Mauer can stay put and cut his ABs significantly, and Vargas can rotate in/

 

2). Trade Dozier in the offseason, get some pitching in return, move him to second.

 

Either way, status quo is clearly lacking.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Hard to criticize the guys defense at SS when the Twins have moved him all over the place the season after Baseball America rated him the best defensive SS in the FSL (scroll down.)  One has to realize that Polanco, outside of the Twins farm brass that for some reason do not like his play at SS, has been seen as a better than average defender.  In addition to the above, BA rated him the Twins best defensive infielder in 2009 and 2010 (same link.)  

 

The Twins' talent "evaluators" and "developers" messed with him by not letting him develop in the position.   It is hard to play SS well right away, after you play 2B only for 2 seasons.

 

Let the kid play a full season or two at SS and then we can talk about his defense.

I'm curious:  how do Escobar and Polanco compare defensively at SS?  I know Escobar was hurt once, maybe twice, last year.  And then there's Polanco's SSS.

 

Personally, I didn't think Polanco was all that bad.  Are looked pretty good there.  Footwork needs some help/experience. 

 

I know you're a lot better at looking this up than I am    ;-)

 

[vessey]

He cannot be the starting short. His advanced numbers were worse than Sano's at third. I think people are stuck on the first impression of Polanco at SS which were good, be he digressed as he went along. Sano on other had started awful and pulled it together at the end. You have to trade Dozier and make Polanco the 2b. 

[wsnydes]

I see it as a matter of time before Polanco gets shifted to 2B with Gordon coming down the pipe.  Why not capitalize on Dozier's season and trade him now?  Move Polanco to 2B and use Escobar at SS until Gordon is ready to come up.  A utility role for Polanco would be a complete waste.

 

Polanco seems destined to be a 2B regardless of his defensive abilities at SS.  With that considered, Dozier wouldn't seem to be in the long term plans for this team and frankly shouldn't be.  They've got to let this core group of youngsters grow as a team together.  Keeping Dozier, in my view, is a wasted opportunity to improve the club and free up space for younger players that figure to be a part of the resurgence of this club.

[Doomtints]

Just give him a bat and a glove in in the middle infield and all star games will follow.  

[nicksaviking]

I just want to see moves that are consistent with a vision, not just throwing crap at the wall to see what sticks.

 

Polanco can stay at SS, but then get rid of the sinkerballers like Gibson and Kintzler, (or tell Gibson to stop throwing his terrible sinker).

 

Polanco can be a utility guy, but then make sure your manager isn't so stubborn in his positioning at the other positions that Polanco doesn't play six games a week.

 

Polanco can play 3B, but then there better be a plan to upgrade the SS position because it's not like Eduardo Escobar playing SS everyday is a huge upgrade.

 

Polanco or Dozier can be traded, but the players coming back better make sense. Both players are too good to be traded just for the sake of a trade, because the above three options could work if they are made in conjunction with other moves to make a specific organizational vision.

 

This just can't be another, "Eh, we're kind of just winging it, just stick Sano in RF for the time being" situation.

[NE Gopher]

Why isn't there more interest in moving Dozier to third?

 

[ashbury]

Having both Dozier and Polanco on the same team is a sub-optimal use of their talents, as they belong both at 2B and putting one at SS or 3B diminishes his contribution.

 

The question for me is whether trading either one brings back enough to exceed the suboptimal combination. (SydneyTwinsFan among others also expressed this point of view.) Therefore, before making any other decisions, I would shop both Dozier and Polanco hard. I want to know concretely the return either player would bring. Tactically, I think letting it be known both are being shopped will slightly increase the offers for the one who other GMs want more, probably Dozier - "I don't especially want Polanco, but if I lowball on Dozier, the Twins might accept an offer on Polanco from someone else, and then Dozier won't be traded".

 

Dozier is at an age that he'd be the natural one to trade, if your business model is to exploit your minor league talent pipeline. We may look back and realize 2016 was his career year. On the other hand, if he's achieved a new level of performance, it's enough above average that he's the kind of player you want to retain. There is also the public relations problem with trading your best player, something that can not be ignored. So I want a lot in return for him, if I trade him - high upside starting pitching, to start with. The point of putting together a contending team is to fill all your positions with above MLB-average players. Those don't grow on trees. We finally have one.

 

Polanco, as has been stated by others already, is less likely to bring back much in trade right now. If that assumption proves wrong, he's the one I probably deal. He projects as an above average 2B eventually, so I don't let him go for scraps in return.

 

If neither trade option works out, I would roll with Polanco at SS for 2017.^* I have been a harsh critic of Polanco's arm for a couple of years now, and I remain very skeptical he can ever become even an average shortstop overall. But his bat looks like it's good enough to make up for it, during a transition season; and unlike some players, being in over his head on defense didn't seem to harm his offensive production. Keep the channels open for a trade during 2017, and re-evaluate a year from now if I still have both players.

 

^* An option I haven't seen discussed: move Dozier to SS instead of Polanco. Both players are about average at 2B; if Dozier might provide marginally better defense at SS then that change has to be considered. The old regime seemed to give undue preference to veterans in their choice of positions; maybe under Falvey that changes. I think Dozier sees himself as enough of a team player to accept the challenge of being a mediocre SS for the good of the team. It's something Molitor wouldn't have asked of Dozier mid-season, but perhaps now he would.

[DocBauer]

I think we all agree trading Dozier, grudgingly perhaps, for real pitching help is the Twins best option at this point. But if the market/return is just not there, or, for whatever reasons the new FO has for not trading Dozier would be at this time, then you play Polanco at SS.

 

I'm not saying it's best position, or he should stay there for good, hut as stated previously, he's not awful there. His bat does somewhat make up for average-ish defense. Further, getting a chance to play the position full time, work at it instead of being bounced around, will assist him in getting better.

[ericchri]

If you get the right offer for Dozier, problem solved.  Otherwise roll with Polanco at short and see if being the regular start has any effect on his defense, positive or negative.  I don't think he's really gotten to the point where we know yet what his defense is ultimately going to be, he's been used too inconsistently to make a full decision.

 

I'm intrigued by the notion of moving Dozier to 3rd, but we're already overcrowded at DH/1B and making Sano part of that without 3B as a home just makes it worse. 

[pogofan]

An ignorant question from a non-athlete (and a Maryland resident who sees MLB highlight clips but not whole games): if arm strength is Polanco's (main?) liability at SS, is there any possibility of him building it up?

[ashbury]

An ignorant question from a non-athlete (and a Maryland resident who sees MLB highlight clips but not whole games): if arm strength is Polanco's (main?) liability at SS, is there any possibility of him building it up?

An ignorant answer from another non-athlete: arm strength has been the knock on Polanco for as long as I remember, including comments from Twins personnel, so I would presume he's worked with whatever experts there are, already.

 

The lack of zip on his throws when he guides it to first, or the scattershot results if he really tries to bring it, is not a sudden revelation.