Article: Out With The Old

[DJL44]

If you're dumping Old you have to include Park on the list. He's going to be 30 and hasn't proven anything yet. I have no idea why people want to release Mauer to play Park. Park should be dealt to a team that doesn't have as many options at 1B and has a relief pitcher that looks interesting. They need to balance this roster and get rid of some all-bat players.

[old nurse]

Dueling SSS. 

 

The statistics would bear out that Ploufe nor Mauer play very well nicked up The new management needs to keep that kind of player on the dl as it only hurts the team. 

 

The selling of any player requires someone to want them. At their age, for Dozier or Santana to be moved it would be likely to a team that thinks one of them will make them a contender. In a weak FA market Santana does have value.  If Santana can be viewed as  he can be the third starter in a playoff rotation he will net more than a team looking for innings being eaten. A trade should net you a better long term player than an accepted QO next year.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I wouldn't count on the QO and draft to be tied after the next CBA.....

[Loosey]

Temporary fixes without Trades or FA, but how about this for some shuffling simply by moving Dozier to 3B:  That bench though - Woof.

 

Lineup

Polanco 2B

Escobar SS

Dozier 3B

Sano 1B/DH - Think he ends up there eventually anyways

Vargas DH/1B

Kepler RF

Buxton CF

Rosario LF

Murphy C

 

Bench

Mauer DH/1B

Grossman OF

Garver C

Santana Util

 

[South Dakota Tom]

Any player that we are talking about keeping to improve his trade value should be gone.  The only way to improve their trade value is to play them, and that takes away from the big picture vision.

 

Yes, I'm talking primarily about Trevor.  I like him and think he can be a valuable player at some point, but not worth a gamble that paying him $8M and playing him over youngsters improves his value to the point where someone eats his contract and gives us anything of value.   That just makes no sense to me, unless you really feel he is going to rebound in a huge way and don't mind platooning Sano - neither of which seems wise to me.

 

I like the idea of platooning Vargas/Mauer/Park at 1B/DH.  I agree with the folks who say that there is no place to trade Mauer (and the idea of cutting him is not wise either - if we were going to agree to pay his entire salary, someone would give us something for him, so why pay the whole salary and get nothing back?).  Plus, the breakdown of the numbers shows that Joe was an .800 OPS guy until he got hurt and my personal visual was that he was pretty good in clutch situations (even though his RBI total was way down).    There is clearly a place on this team for Joe Mauer, given all the alternatives.  He would be an ideal pinch-hitter in late-game situations and the idea of him getting 350 ABS and working primarily against RH pitchers with Vargas as the DH on those days, and Park at 1B with Vargas DHing against lefties makes sense.

 

And yes, if we're going to improve the starting staff, it is a combination of factors, many of which we already possess.  We can't jettison upside prospects (and I am hoping Gibson turns it around next year and think he will).  Keep Santana unless you are blown away by a deal for a major-league ready starter who is 23 and who will project into your lineup.  Having Gibson, Santana, Mejia, May, Santiago, Berrios, Gonsalves, potentially Hughes (not counting on it) potentially available to start next year (plus the young starter we get for Dozier) is a pathway, if not a solution.

 

So trade Dozier for the starter most likely to succeed, run the 1B/DH rotation, Polanco at 2b, Escobar at SS, Sano at 3B, outfield is set at the starting spots and pick a 4th OF from F.A. or Grossman. 

 

The biggest need on this team is behind the plate.  I don't pretend to know much about Castro or any other FA, but we need the best pitch-framer run-stopper we can find, as it improves 12 other guys pitching and helps 8 other guys fielding. 

 

I think the biggest obstruction to the future is resigning ballplayers that take ab's away from guys who need to get a look, just so we can shop them for value.  It is backward thinking.  I think we blew it the last two months of the season by playing marginal stopgaps instead of the future, and hope we're not so awful that we get another chance next year to get it right.

[TheBoofIsLoose]

Sell high on most of these "old guys." Mauer isn't leaving, whether or not this is the right thing is irrelevant, it just simply won't happen. A hometown player, who has been the face of the franchise for a decade, with some impressive hardware is staying. Realistically this team still has to sell tickets and Mauer is a draw for the average fan. Santana should be shopped aggressively, how trustworthy is a 33 year old inning eater going to be from year to year? Aside from that this team is still at least a few years from contending for the playoffs and there is an even smaller chance he is relevant. Plouffe has to go, no other way around it, he just does not fit into the team construct anymore. Dozier is trickier, any offers shouldn't be ignored, but we shouldn't take anything just to clear up space. He has never had as much value as he does now, but the notion that he should switch positions for the Twins is wrong, OF or even 3B is a terrible idea. That is just asking to cut value and further muddy up the picture.

[glanzer]

I don't disagree that trading Dozier could make a lot of sense from a baseball standpoint, but the team also has selling tickets to worry about in 2017, and parting with the team's best player/face of the franchise would undoubtedly alienate a large portion of the fan base. I'm not sure Mauer is particularly marketable anymore, and Sano/Buxton probably aren't recognizable enough to the casual fan yet. Trading Dozier means losing the team's most marketable player in a year where the team desperately needs someone of his stature. In my opinion, they'd need to make a pretty splash move to offset that... again, from a marketing standpoint.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't disagree that trading Dozier could make a lot of sense from a baseball standpoint, but the team also has selling tickets to worry about in 2017, and parting with the team's best player/face of the franchise would undoubtedly alienate a large portion of the fan base. I'm not sure Mauer is particularly marketable anymore, and Sano/Buxton probably aren't recognizable enough to the casual fan yet. Trading Dozier means losing the team's most marketable player in a year where the team desperately needs someone of his stature. In my opinion, they'd need to make a pretty splash move to offset that... again, from a marketing standpoint.

winning sells tickets. A player does not. That's very clear from years of data.

[lukeduke1980]

After watching playoffs thus far its a reminder how critical pitching is and how far away our collection of arms are.  

 

The Giants have Conor Gillespie at 3rd.  Plug and play accordingly after you figure out pitching.

[DocBauer]

While I don't want to trade him, and remain unconvinced that he couldn't still be part of the next winning Twins team, you have to hope to sell high on Dozier for SP help.

 

Not so sure about trading Santana. The FA market is not good this season, and it's very possible a team needing SP help could see real value in acquiring him from the Twins. But if the best offer is an A level player, you might just have more value keeping him and see what the trade deadline brings.

 

I totally agree Mauer is a 300-350 AB role player at this point. Due to injuries that seem to constantly flare up as well as diminished offensive production. But good defense, and a LH bat with quality OB can still help.

 

IN WITH THE OLD:

 

I'm still campaigningredients for a quality veteran 4th OF. Someone who can fill in, be a solid bat off the bench, and hold a place for someone like Palka or Granite. I don't think you want them only playing occassionally or part time at this point. A veteran allows them to play daily and continue their growth while deepening the Twins overall.

 

I also wonder about an experienced closer, perhaps someone on bounce-back or near the end. It could help stabilize the entire pen, allow the younger arms to really embrace their various roles, and allow guys like Chargois to slide in to the closer role without having the pressure of doing so straight out of ST.

 

And I wonder about one more veteran role player. Grossman could be the team'should 5th OF and could PH and DH at times. But what Plouffe? Or someone similar. If Plouffe, or similar, could be signed on the short and cheap to be a bench bat and multi position role player, would that be so bad?

 

Look, I'm all about the kids and the rebuild taking place. And the starting OF and most, if not all the infield when you discuss Vargas, could also be relatively young. And I dont want to take AB away from the kids. But why not a veteran 4th OF instead of relegating a Granite or Palka to the bench most days? If Escobar and Polanco start, where is your utility guy or bench role player? Point is, it could be good in the long run to bring on a veteran or two for the short and relatively cheap to firm up the club and buy developmental time for others. They might even be flippable at the trade deadline.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think if the Twins were in a postseason series right now, you write Plouffe in as the third baseman. Easily. Going forward I just don't see it. 

 

Out with the old. I am open to the idea of trading Dozier or moving Mauer to left or third, but I just don't see either happening. I think this season taught us that cutting Mauer's innings in the field will keep him fresher and more productive.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/0/5/0/187004050/062916_sano_med_ok9rqg9t.gif

..............

He will own that forever, and deservedly so!

[Yossarian]

That would cut his trade value in half...

 

 

If Dozier played well in LF (not the most difficult position on the field unless your name is Grossman), it would double his trade value. Dozier has the speed and enough arm and athleticism to do it.

[HitInAPinch]

 

http://nesncom.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/plouffe-goof.gif?w=400&h=225

 

 

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/TrevorPlouffeError.gif

Highlight reel material !!

[HitInAPinch]

 

If you're dumping Old you have to include Park on the list. He's going to be 30 and hasn't proven anything yet. I have no idea why people want to release Mauer to play Park. Park should be dealt to a team that doesn't have as many options at 1B and has a relief pitcher that looks interesting. They need to balance this roster and get rid of some all-bat players.

Park had season ending wrist surgery [damaged tendon on back of right hand].  This right after homering eight times in 10 games through late July.

 

Because of the surgery, I have my doubts that any team would take Park and his salary.  The July explosion makes me want to see more of Park.

[glanzer]

 

winning sells tickets. A player does not. That's very clear from years of data.

 

Of course winning sells tickets. But try selling season tickets this winter for the 2017 season to a fan base whose team just lost 103 games and then proceeded to trade its best, most marketable player, presumably for prospects that won't pay off for a few years.

Edited October 12, 2016 by glanzer

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course winning sells tickets. But try selling season tickets this winter for the 2017 season to a fan base whose team just lost 103 games and then proceeded to trade its best, most marketable player, presumably for prospects that won't pay off for a few years.

 

That's a terrible reason to keep him. How many people are buying tickets depending on what they do with Dozier?

[Doomtints]

 

Of course winning sells tickets. But try selling season tickets this winter for the 2017 season to a fan base whose team just lost 103 games and then proceeded to trade its best, most marketable player, presumably for prospects that won't pay off for a few years.

 

I think Pohlad saved 2017 ticket sales as best he could by firing management.  There will be a buy in period where many fans will be willing to give the new team a chance, even if Dozier is wildly popular (is he?) and gets traded.  

Edited October 12, 2016 by Doomtints

[glanzer]

 

That's a terrible reason to keep him. How many people are buying tickets depending on what they do with Dozier?

 

Dude, I'm not saying we keep him. You and me, we both know that if we can get a solid return package for Dozier, we move him. My comment is about the team's marketing strategy for the 2017 season, and how losing your star player will make it more difficult to sell tickets, especially after a 103-loss season. That's all. From a marketing standpoint, losing your most marketable asset is bad. That's all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Dozier played well in LF (not the most difficult position on the field unless your name is Grossman), it would double his trade value. Dozier has the speed and enough arm and athleticism to do it.

No. No, it would not.

 

You may as well say that Dozier's value doubles if he "learns" to play first base.

[Darius]

Just a few things:

 

1). Plouffe is not good. Nobody is giving up anything for him. At this point, I don't see how just giving him his walking papers would hurt the Twins in any way.

 

2). Dozier should absolutely be traded. He'll never be as good as we was this year again. That's not so say he won't be a good player, but he's not playing MVP calibur baseball again. Just gut feeling (and about 10 years of numbers). Even if he does, it's not helping them compete for anything meaningful with this pitching staff. Hell, you could double all of his statistics this year, and the Twins still don't sniff the playoffs. For the love of God, Twins FO, have some foresight just one time and sell high on someone.

 

3). The biggest need on this team going into next year (outside of any carbon-based life form to stand on the mound, and in some way project the ball towards home plate) is catcher, IMO. The horrendous defense behind the plate has been sucking the life out of this team since Mauer moves. There are people walking the street who are better than Suzuki with the gear on at this point. He does some things well, but the guy can't frame a pitch, and he might as well be the BP net in terms of controlling base runners. It's time for him to start his coaching career.

[The Wise One]

Trading Dozier could be a great idea. For a near top of rotation arm is another great idea. That takes a team with a need for a 2b, and  arm to trade.  Hate to be a nugatory  person, it is not happening.  The number of quality 2B on competitive teams  are numerous. A rebuilding team would not want Dozier for the same reason people here want to trade him.

[Kwak]

 

That would cut his trade value in half...


If Dozier played well in LF (not the most difficult position on the field unless your name is Grossman), it would double his trade value. Dozier has the speed and enough arm and athleticism to do it.

No. If Dozier "had the arm"--he would be the starting SS instead of 2B. Playing the OF also requires a certain "knack" of judging fly balls--yet to displayed as an OF. This concept of putting a functional INF in the OF "because he's athletic" must stop NOW! The Twins have enough options to play the OF.

 

Dozier should be traded this off season. The priority is starting pitching and trading Dozier is the best option to get it.

 

As for finding a 4th OFer?--should be about 15th on the to do list at the very highest.

 

 

[adorduan]

I don't care what some stupid metrics say, Sano is not a better defensive 3rd baseman that Plouffe.  I'm sure the "metrics" didn't take into account the time he actually ran away from a freaking pop up.

[Linus]

No. If Dozier "had the arm"--he would be the starting SS instead of 2B. Playing the OF also requires a certain "knack" of judging fly balls--yet to displayed as an OF. This concept of putting a functional INF in the OF "because he's athletic" must stop NOW! The Twins have enough options to play the OF.

 

Dozier should be traded this off season. The priority is starting pitching and trading Dozier is the best option to get it.

 

As for finding a 4th OFer?--should be about 15th on the to do list at the very highest.

I'm pretty sure they can focus on more than one thing at a time

[Jham]

I wouldn't be surprised if Dozier was shopped at the deadline without much interest.  He's cheap, he's really really good, and he's worthy of a trade package involving an MLB ready blue chip pitching prospect.  If that's not being offered, then what's the point in trading him.  Keep in mind, the idea is that we're trying to make our team better not just younger.  

 

Also, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Berrios are already up.  Arcia is gone, DanSan is practically gone.  Gibson is a non-tender candidate.  Exactly what stage of the rebuild are we in?  Are we at the end of a failed rebuild, the beginning of a new rebuild, or the middle of a new new rebuild?  I mean, if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios et al are our core, exactly how many seasons do we expect to be able to keep them all?  Are we willing to waste half of them chasing some future alignment of planets?  Try to win with these kids once or twice, then rebuild.  And if this isn't a good enough core anyway, Sano would bring back better pitching than Dozier.

[Kwak]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Dozier was shopped at the deadline without much interest.  He's cheap, he's really really good, and he's worthy of a trade package involving an MLB ready blue chip pitching prospect.  If that's not being offered, then what's the point in trading him.  Keep in mind, the idea is that we're trying to make our team better not just younger.  

 

Also, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Berrios are already up.  Arcia is gone, DanSan is practically gone.  Gibson is a non-tender candidate.  Exactly what stage of the rebuild are we in?  Are we at the end of a failed rebuild, the beginning of a new rebuild, or the middle of a new new rebuild?  I mean, if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios et al are our core, exactly how many seasons do we expect to be able to keep them all?  Are we willing to waste half of them chasing some future alignment of planets?  Try to win with these kids once or twice, then rebuild.  And if this isn't a good enough core anyway, Sano would bring back better pitching than Dozier.

They likely will have to trade Sano because of his agent-representation anyway. But Sano is the epitome of cheap (for a ballplayer) and could easily put together some monster seasons. Then Sano's trade value would soar way above his present value. Therefore, trading him this season is a very poor idea. 

[Mike Sixel]

I wouldn't be surprised if Dozier was shopped at the deadline without much interest.  He's cheap, he's really really good, and he's worthy of a trade package involving an MLB ready blue chip pitching prospect.  If that's not being offered, then what's the point in trading him.  Keep in mind, the idea is that we're trying to make our team better not just younger.  

 

Also, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Berrios are already up.  Arcia is gone, DanSan is practically gone.  Gibson is a non-tender candidate.  Exactly what stage of the rebuild are we in?  Are we at the end of a failed rebuild, the beginning of a new rebuild, or the middle of a new new rebuild?  I mean, if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios et al are our core, exactly how many seasons do we expect to be able to keep them all?  Are we willing to waste half of them chasing some future alignment of planets?  Try to win with these kids once or twice, then rebuild.  And if this isn't a good enough core anyway, Sano would bring back better pitching than Dozier.

Exactly how would they not waste next year and the year after if they don't get pitching? Where do you expect to get pitching, if not thru a trade?

[Jham]

 

Exactly how would they not waste next year and the year after if they don't get pitching? Where do you expect to get pitching, if not thru a trade?

I agree 100%.  That is the question I was raising.  If Dozier can't bring back a franchise changing pitching package, what are our options?  Here's how I see them:

 

1. Take the best package we can get even if it's not a perfect exchange of value.
2. Accept a package that includes riskier prospects that are further away (not likely to help in the next 2 years)

3. Stand pat and hope the market for pitching and trading improves by next season.  

4. Try to acquire pitching through trades of prospects or current players more coveted than Dozier. 

 

I think we cheer for Cubs and hope the Dodgers end up a right handed bat short of the Series.  But I don't want to give away Dozier the way we gave away Span (even though that was probably a necessary risk).  If we trade Dozier, I'd prefer there not be much risk involved.

[Vanimal46]

I will be cheering heavily for the Cubs. Then hope Falvey takes out the Dodgers PBO for a night out on the town. Buy him enough drinks that he offers Maeda for Dozier. Easy enough!