Article: Rating the Twins' Offense (in a League Without the Twins)

[BRNZ]

In a miserable season destined for 100 losses, Twins fans can be sure that their team is a mess. But as the Sept. 18 episode of Gleeman and the Geek points out, most of that mess is as a result of just one side of the ball: pitching and defense. Aaron and John noted that the Twins are actually fairly decent when it comes to hitting, and raised an interesting question: how does the Twins run production stack up against the American League, if we ignore the games the league has played against the Twins pitching staff?The Twins, despite their dreadful record, are almost exactly league average when it comes to offensive production. Collectively, Minnesota owns an OPS+ of 101, meaning they sport an OPS that is 1% better than average. They rank eighth in OPS (.745), ninth in home runs (186), third in doubles (272), and lead the league in triples (33). Perhaps most importantly, the Twins are tied for seventh in the American League in runs scored.

 

Runs per game of AL teams through 9/19/16

 

So the Twins offense is decidedly middle-of-the-road. In fact, if their pitching and defense were simply bad, and not horrendous, the Twins would likely be hovering near .500. Instead, the Twins have allowed 827 runs this season, a full 114 more than the next worst team (Oakland). To put that into perspective, the gaps between all other American League teams adds up to 113 runs.

 

If run prevention were a marathon, the other 14 teams would be bunched near the finish line and the Twins would be at mile 15.

 

The Twins pitching and defense are so bad, that it puts into question the team’s offensive rankings. Every other team on that list has had the opportunity to play against the Twins. They’ve all gotten fat by racking up runs against an outlier of a team. It's time to correct for that outlier.

 

Using Baseball Reference’s Head-to-Head feature, it was fairly easy to look up runs scored and games played, then to subtract the totals from games played against the Twins. To further balance the playing field, I decided to also remove interleague games (which I also did for the Twins).

 

Runs per game for AL teams and R/G adjusted to remove Twins games and interleague play. Good through 9/19/16.

The Twins move up a slot, and claim sixth place, narrowly edging out the Blue Jays. While the Twins’ score went down slightly (the Twins scored slightly more often against National League teams), most teams saw their score drop by more. Only three teams actually improved their scores, most notably the Rangers, who never got going against the Twins, and who jump into second place offensively. The Red Sox are still in their own realm, but the gap has narrowed.

 

It is interesting to note that the three division leaders still retain the top three spots, and the last five teams are still the bottom five, just in a different order. The biggest loser was Toronto, which fell from fourth to seventh, due to a gaudy 50 runs scored against the Twins in just seven games. All in all, Twins fans can take solace in the fact that, by this crude measure, the Twins offense is solidly above average.

 

But we can dig deeper.

 

This approach still doesn’t take into account the wildly unbalanced schedule even within the same league. Some teams play each other just six times, while others play 19 times. And the Twins aren’t the only ones with particularly bad (or particularly good) pitching staffs.

 

I decided to do the same exercise, only to average the R/G in each individual match-up to simulate a league in which every team played every other team the same number of games. Because the point of reference was the Twins, and the Twins can’t play themselves, I still decided to exclude the games against the Twins for all other teams. By also ignoring interleague games, the result was a league in which the other 14 teams each had 13 opponents, with their R/G of each match-up worth 1/13th of their over all score. The Twins had 14 opponents, so each match-up counts for 1/14th of their overall score.

 

Remember, the goal here is to compare the Twins’ run production against the rest of the league, both by eliminating games played against the Twins, and by averaging out the scores from all the teams to reflect their schedules. Let’s see how the Twins stack up:

 

Runs per game, adjusted to remove Twins and inter-league games, and weighted for a balanced schedule. Good through 9/19/16.

 

Top five! The Twins’ score stays the same (just a coincidence), but Seattle drops from fifth to seventh, making room for the Twins in the top five. Also note that the Indians fall down to fourth, with their lowest score yet. I’d be interested to see this same exercise done excluding games against Cleveland. After all, the Indians are the only team in the league that doesn’t have to face the stellar Cleveland pitching staff.

 

Now I know this was a silly exercise, but it underscores three things:

• The Twins have been reasonably proficient at scoring runs. If offense was all that mattered, it’s conceivable that the Twins are a wildcard team.
• The Twins are really bad at preventing runs, and most teams have taken advantage of that.
• Scoring lots of runs isn’t enough, unless you can also find a way to prevent your opponent from doing the same. Because while the Twins are sitting in fifth place in these standings, they’re dead last in the ones that count.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

So Santana and pray for rain right now... ouch. I think that gives more impetus on moving on from BD (below average defender) though it hurts the offense pretty bad given that BD is probably 50% of our offense (not quite, but you get the exaggeration)... 

 

Definitely makes acquiring pitching a priority. Berrios seems to have talent to get there some day, but I think patience is warranted. Sadly, short of Sano at 3B and possibly a corner spot, this team (without BD) should be solidly above average...  They need some pitching. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

You cannot simply remove 40 HR, 100R, and 100 RBI and expect the offense not to miss a beat. Our offense is good and getting better. But as I've said in other threads, it's good enough to compete, not good enough to gut for pitching.

Addition by addition, not subtraction, should be the blueprint for the new GM.

[EddieMatthews]

Good article and food for thought.  I like the stats that remove the opponents stats when facing the Twins.

 

My sense is that the Twins also are poor in clutch hitting.  Their record in one-run games is dismal (13-27).  They have been shut out 8 times and held to one run 15 additional times.  These are examples where the offense has stumbled.  I would like to see their RISP as a team as well as other stats that show their clutch hitting.  

 

If consistency improves with experience and with a stable line-up, we can have more hope for 2017 offense.  That leaves the pitching staff for the new executives to work on.

[mazeville]

 

You cannot simply remove 40 HR, 100R, and 100 RBI and expect the offense not to miss a beat. Our offense is good and getting better. But as I've said in other threads, it's good enough to compete, not good enough to gut for pitching. Addition by addition, not subtraction, should be the blueprint for the new GM.

 

Right. So how do you do that? Free agency? The Arizona Diamondbacks went out and got one of the top free agent pitchers on the market, then traded for Shelby Miller, and look where that got them. 

 

This is a 100-loss team. Clayton Kershaw wouldn't fix the pitching. 

 

This team has to fix the defense and get better pitchers if it is going to improve. And if you look at some of the best rebuilding jobs over the years -- like, say, the Cubs -- they all accelerated their rebuilds by making trades of players they should supposedly had kept.

 

For the Twins, that's Brian Dozier. While it's tough to lose that kind of production, the team didn't have any better of a record in the second half, when he was playing out of his mind, than they did in the first half, when he was awful. 

 

There is no way -- NO WAY -- the Twins can fix this problem simply by spending money on some free agent pitchers. That defense is too bad. They have to take every step possible to improve. That means trading Dozier.

 

[hybridbear]

Fascinating data. Thanks for pulling it together!

[Joe A. Preusser]

Right. So how do you do that? Free agency? The Arizona Diamondbacks went out and got one of the top free agent pitchers on the market, then traded for Shelby Miller, and look where that got them. 

 

This is a 100-loss team. Clayton Kershaw wouldn't fix the pitching. 

 

This team has to fix the defense and get better pitchers if it is going to improve. And if you look at some of the best rebuilding jobs over the years -- like, say, the Cubs -- they all accelerated their rebuilds by making trades of players they should supposedly had kept.

 

For the Twins, that's Brian Dozier. While it's tough to lose that kind of production, the team didn't have any better of a record in the second half, when he was playing out of his mind, than they did in the first half, when he was awful. 

 

There is no way -- NO WAY -- the Twins can fix this problem simply by spending money on some free agent pitchers. That defense is too bad. They have to take every step possible to improve. That means trading Dozier.

I'm not advocating dumping money on free agent SP, even if there's anyone available.

I would advocate going after a strong C, a back end BP piece, and maybe a strong setup guy. None of that would require flushing Doziers production down the tubes.

 

The outfield defense with Buck, Rosario and Kepler is no worse than average, possibly better. In the infield you just have to accept Sano and Polanco because their offense more than makes up for it. Believe me, I'm a defense first guy at heart. I was just fine with Floriman for a long time. But the team we have is the team we have. It's not a video game where you can pick and choose every leverage opportunity and make it work. Losing Dozier from our lineup would completely change the dynamic and quite possibly turn an area of strength into yet another liability.

 

You are right, we need to pitch better to get better. The best (and possibly only) way to do this is to put an excellent pen together and bring in a strong C. Prospects and one of our 1B/DH can pull this off.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You cannot simply remove 40 HR, 100R, and 100 RBI and expect the offense not to miss a beat. Our offense is good and getting better. But as I've said in other threads, it's good enough to compete, not good enough to gut for pitching. Addition by addition, not subtraction, should be the blueprint for the new GM.

I don't believe the offense will be just as good without Dozier but the real question is "what leads to more wins?"

 

1. Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X

2. Escobar/Polanco + League Average Pitcher with Upside

 

And that's not even bringing into the discussion where Dozier is only here for two more seasons and it's unlikely the Twins will be competitive in at least one of those seasons.

 

The idea is that whatever pitcher is acquired doesn't leave after the 2018 season and will be under team control through at least the 2020 season.

 

If the Twins needed only one or two pieces to scratch their way into even being a pretender, keeping Dozier might be an okay move... But the Twins don't need a piece or two. They need an entire rotation, most of a bullpen, and a damned catcher, to boot.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I don't believe the offense will be just as good without Dozier but the real question is "what leads to more wins?"

 

1. Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X

2. Escobar/Polanco + League Average Pitcher with Upside

 

And that's not even bringing into the discussion where Dozier is only here for two more seasons and it's unlikely the Twins will be competitive in at least one of those seasons.

 

The idea is that whatever pitcher is acquired doesn't leave after the 2018 season and will be under team control through at least the 2020 season.

 

If the Twins needed only one or two pieces to scratch their way into even being a pretender, keeping Dozier might be an okay move... But the Twins don't need a piece or two. They need an entire rotation, most of a bullpen, and a damned catcher, to boot.

I think we're closer to competing for the playoffs than that. A strong C, a closer, a couple of BP promotions. Progression to norm for Nicks starting 5, better OF defense from day 1, strong offense. Wild card contenders.

[wsnydes]

 

I'm not advocating dumping money on free agent SP, even if there's anyone available.
I would advocate going after a strong C, a back end BP piece, and maybe a strong setup guy. None of that would require flushing Doziers production down the tubes.

The outfield defense with Buck, Rosario and Kepler is no worse than average, possibly better. In the infield you just have to accept Sano and Polanco because their offense more than makes up for it. Believe me, I'm a defense first guy at heart. I was just fine with Floriman for a long time. But the team we have is the team we have. It's not a video game where you can pick and choose every leverage opportunity and make it work. Losing Dozier from our lineup would completely change the dynamic and quite possibly turn an area of strength into yet another liability.

You are right, we need to pitch better to get better. The best (and possibly only) way to do this is to put an excellent pen together and bring in a strong C. Prospects and one of our 1B/DH can pull this off.

So you're just going to ignore the starting rotation?  IMO, that's a bigger problem than the bullpen.  Get starters to go deeper and that takes some of the burden off of the bullpen.  The pen needs to improve as well, but they effectively have one starting pitcher that can be relied upon right now.  Defense alone won't improve the pitching staff. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think we're closer to competing for the playoffs than that. A strong C, a closer, a couple of BP promotions. Progression to norm for Nicks starting 5, better OF defense from day 1, strong offense. Wild card contenders.

The Twins need to make up ~115 runs allowed just to move to 14th place in the AL.

 

That's .75 runs per game.

 

It's not going to take a catcher, it's going to take four decent rotation pieces (currently have one) and at least two strong bullpen pieces (currently have zero).

 

Five pitchers needed and even then, success is far from guaranteed. That's just to move from "omg legendarily horrible" to "eh, still pretty bad, near the bottom of the league".

 

To be considered even average, the Twins pitching staff needs to allow one full run fewer per game. Think about that for a moment. One run fewer. Per game.

[gunnarthor]

A couple (I think semi-realistic) ways the Twins could improve defense (and maybe the pitching staff).

 

1) Sign Wilson Ramos.  He's apparently good at pitch framing which could really help a guy like Gibson, who nibbles a lot.  Plus, having Ramos back would make a vocal Twins fan happy.

 

2) Try and trade for Jurickson Profar (or another plus SS defender).  He's had an up and down season offensively and he's not playing short for the Rangers but he's still only 23 and was a great SS prospect and the minor league reports said he was good in the PCL defensively.  He has three more years of team control so he'd cost a bit to get.  But even if the Twins didn't want to trade anyone on the ML roster, they could put a nice package together around Gordon, for instance.  

 

3) If you get a new short stop you can trade Dozier and slide Polanco to second.  Big offensive drop but hopefully you'd get a nice return for Dozier to immediately help the pitching staff.

 

4) Fix bullpen through FA?  Horrible SP market but the relief pitcher market might be a bit better.  

 

5) Fire Allen.  Even if you're stuck with Molitor we can try a new pitching coach.  

 

An up the middle defense of Ramos, Polanco, Profar (or plus SS) and Buxton would be pretty good.  We'd still have a bit of problems in the corners, depending on what stat you prefer, but not major problems.  Obviously, the Twins won't do all five of those things but they might do one or two.

[Joe A. Preusser]

So you're just going to ignore the starting rotation?  IMO, that's a bigger problem than the bullpen.  Get starters to go deeper and that takes some of the burden off of the bullpen.  The pen needs to improve as well, but they effectively have one starting pitcher that can be relied upon right now.  Defense alone won't improve the pitching staff.

 

I'm not ignoring anything. Nolasco is gone, Milone won't be back. Mejia is next man up instead of Pat Dean or whomever. I expect a rotation of

 

Santana

Gibson

May

Berrios

Santiago

 

to be as much as half a run better than this year.

 

Support a young, emerging bullpen and add a very good catcher and that could easily move to 1 full run per game better.

[frightwig]

 

You cannot simply remove 40 HR, 100R, and 100 RBI and expect the offense not to miss a beat.

 

I think it would be a mistake to count on Dozier to provide 40/100/100 from here on out. He's never had anything like 41 HR or 141 wRC+ before, and there are reasons to expect that he won't age all that well, anyway. But even if he is truly a Superstar now, how much longer will the Twins be able to keep him? His current bargain deal runs through 2 more years. Are the Twins going to pay market rates to keep him into his late 30's? Should they even want to? Should Dozier want to stay, if a more successful club offers him big money?

 

In the long run, I think the club will be better off if they sell high on Dozier, when he's not only coming off a career year but he should have added value because he's signed for 2yrs/$15M. Get some young pitching talent, move Polanco to 2B. The future will depend on Buxton/Sano/Kepler/Polanco, not the Dozier/Mauer/Plouffe nucleus, and whatever the new GM can do to improve the pitching. Hanging onto Dozier will just hold them back.

[JustinCB]

 

For the Twins, that's Brian Dozier. While it's tough to lose that kind of production, the team didn't have any better of a record in the second half, when he was playing out of his mind, than they did in the first half, when he was awful. 

 

 

I think now that they presumably will have somebody savvy pulling the trigger, they shop him and try and make some meaningful improvements on the other side of the ball.  They don't have anybody else that is going to to do that for them this offseason.  I don't even think shopping Buxton or Sano (which would be crazy) would get them back what a current 7 win player will.  If the younger guys don't take some steps forward next year they aren't going to be any good again anyway, with or without Dozier.

 

Edit: of course as soon as I finish writing this he hits #42.  Gonna be real sad to see him go, don't get me wrong.

 

[Tomj14]

 

I don't believe the offense will be just as good without Dozier but the real question is "what leads to more wins?"

 

1. Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X

2. Escobar/Polanco + League Average Pitcher with Upside

 

And that's not even bringing into the discussion where Dozier is only here for two more seasons and it's unlikely the Twins will be competitive in at least one of those seasons.

 

The idea is that whatever pitcher is acquired doesn't leave after the 2018 season and will be under team control through at least the 2020 season.

 

If the Twins needed only one or two pieces to scratch their way into even being a pretender, keeping Dozier might be an okay move... But the Twins don't need a piece or two. They need an entire rotation, most of a bullpen, and a damned catcher, to boot.

In all honesty what are you expecting in return for Dozier? Are you expecting more prospects like Gonsalves,Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero,Kohl Stewart? or are you expecting a pitcher already established in the big leagues that fits behind or ahead of Santana?

I am not saying don't trade him, but if we are going to get AA or high A can't miss prospects, it seems we already have a few of them. 

Or are you thinking we can trade Dozier for somebody like Shelby Miller or Dylan Bundy? 

I don't think it is fair to say Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X,

I think you need to say Dozier/Polanco + May vs. Escobar/Polanco + S. Miller or D. Bundy.

 

Because if we only get prospects you can't say league average pitcher.

Just my two cents.

 

[EddieMatthews]

Of course, it is easy to fault the pitching staff.  After all, they have terrible numbers.  Even allowing for the disappointment of injuries to Hughes, Perkins, and assorted smaller injuries, The results are not good.

 

Can we fault the coaching?  Didn't the Twins have their best record while Neil Allen was out of the picture?  Does Molitor need to do a better job of managing the bullpen?  I think so.  He has tried extending relievers for more than one inning.  Sometimes that has worked, other times not.  Kintzler on more than one occasion has returned to the mound for a second inning with disastrous results.  Jensen followed a great 2015 with a flop in 2016.  

 

Can we find some statistics that prove or refute the correlation between pitching and coaching?

[Eris]

On Fangraphs, the Twins have -50 DRS.  The Cubs are at the top of that category with +79 DRS.  Although that is bad, most of the damage is caused by just a few players.

Grossman -19

Sano -12

D. Santana -10

Nunez -9

Suzuki -6

Polanco -5

 

Removing the worst 4 players from defense would get the Twins to 0 DRS (which I think is league average).  Our projected outfield for next year of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all have positive defensive runs saved.

[S.]

 

I expect a rotation of

Santana
Gibson
May
Berrios
Santiago

to be as much as half a run better than this year.
 

Thats a lofty expectation, especially considering Santana is pitching better this year than his career averages, by a pretty large margin. I have no reason to believe Gibson is magically going to turn a corner and improve drastically. May is a complete question mark and it'd be foolish to assume he's a sure-fire upgrade over the mess this year. Berrios I'd expect to improve, but thats not saying much. Santiago is average at best. 

 

Looks like the makings for another bad rotation to me.

[Doomtints]

 

Of course, it is easy to fault the pitching staff.  After all, they have terrible numbers.  Even allowing for the disappointment of injuries to Hughes, Perkins, and assorted smaller injuries, The results are not good.

 

Can we fault the coaching?  Didn't the Twins have their best record while Neil Allen was out of the picture?  Does Molitor need to do a better job of managing the bullpen?  I think so.  He has tried extending relievers for more than one inning.  Sometimes that has worked, other times not.  Kintzler on more than one occasion has returned to the mound for a second inning with disastrous results.  Jensen followed a great 2015 with a flop in 2016.  

 

Can we find some statistics that prove or refute the correlation between pitching and coaching?

 

Pitching - sure.

Coaching - sure.

 

Don't forget:  defense, defense, defense.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thats a lofty expectation, especially considering Santana is pitching better this year than his career averages, by a pretty large margin. I have no reason to believe Gibson is magically going to turn a corner and improve drastically. May is a complete question mark and it'd be foolish to assume he's a sure-fire upgrade over the mess this year. Berrios I'd expect to improve, but thats not saying much. Santiago is average at best.

 

Looks like the makings for another bad rotation to me.

I'm comfortable stating that May is an upgrade over this year's mess.

 

Whether he'll be any good is another question.

 

The bar is ridiculously low.

[S.]

 

I'm comfortable stating that May is an upgrade over this year's mess.

Whether he'll be any good is another question.

The bar is ridiculously low.

Yeah, you're probably right. Overall point still stands though.

[jimmer]

I'd be surprised if the Twins actually had May in the rotation next year, regardless of what's been said by our interim GM.

[TheLeviathan]

If Polanco moves to 2B and we sign an all-glove SS, we are experiencing a double hit on the offense.  Unless we get a guy with upside (Profar is certainly a good idea), we are likely taking  a dip down in production from Escobar/Polanco/Nunez to whomever plays there next year.  Dozier to Polanco is a dip too.  

 

Now there is reason to hope Buxton turns the CF production totally around and Kepler takes a step forward, but you're probably talking on the whole a net loss offensively.  Not much of one, maybe even a push, but it's hard to say.

 

I think the odds of us improving the 8-12 spots in our bullpen/rotation that need upgrading are highly improbable.  Improving the middle infield and catching spots seem like the best places to focus our efforts.  (And to focus on with trade targets)

[diehardtwinsfan]

We've already got an all glove SS in the minors... I'd rather go for upside if they are replacing Escobar (and I'm perfectly fine running him out there next season).  Something though needs to be done on the pitching side of things.

[gunnarthor]

Ivan Nova seemed to figure a few things out in Pittsburgh - probably that the NL is easier - and is shaping up to get a few more dollars in FA than I would expect.  Really rough FA class.

[twinkiller573]

Good article.

 

I agree with the fans saying keeping Dozier is VERY important. 

 

Here is how I'd suggest fixing the Twins.

 

First they are bad but not as bad as their record indicates. Fangraphs baseruns has them -11 wins. So with average luck they should have won 11 more games. Also the pitching is not as horrific as it looks. It's still bad but their ERA is 0.54 runs higher than their FIP worst in AL by quite a bit and average AL team actually beats their FIP by .04

 

Due to ridiculous price of good or great free agent starting pitching. They need cost effective additions to rotation, bullpen and trust that prospects can develop. This will mean they won't have a great rotation but if they can get close to average that will be more than enough if they can build an above average lineup and bullpen.

 

They do have Stewart, Gonsalves, Mejia and even Wheeler looked promising at AAA this year. With luck 1-2 of them might be MLB ready at some point next year.

 

1. Add Wilson Ramos he is clearly best available C and catchers are dirt cheap compared to FA starting pitching. Ramos can make an average lineup well above average and his defense should help the pitching even if it is only a slight improvement. Mitch Garver might be a solid backup C, too.

 

2. Add Melancon and 1 other above average reliever. The Twins have been slow to this trend but KC, Bal, and others have emphasized bullpen and it works. You can never have enough good relievers. Maybe Perkins can come back and be good again. Rogers and Chargios have shown some potential. Trevor Hildenberger has all the signs of a solid MLB reliever but got hurt tendonitis so "should" be healthy next year.

 

3. Make O'Rourke a lefty specialist! O'Rourke dominates Lefties but struggles vs. righties. MLB career lefties hit .127 off him. If used correctly O'Rourke can be VERY good. 

 

3. Move May back to rotation. He is probably their most talent starter other than Santana.

 

4. Quit messing with Berrios delivery and let the kid pitch. Maybe he will be a bust but I think with his raw stuff and demeanor he will be a good MLB starter.

 

5. Trust Duffey will come back. His BB/K rate is nearly 3:1 and his HR/FB rate 19.3% is almost certain to fall dramatically next year. Very few pitchers ever stay over 13%. He was good last year and his xFIP is 3.93 which is very solid.

 

I guess the easiest fix is change coaching philosophy and make fixes to bullpen and hope the young prospects develop.

 

[d-mac]

 

I think we're closer to competing for the playoffs than that. A strong C, a closer, a couple of BP promotions. Progression to norm for Nicks starting 5, better OF defense from day 1, strong offense. Wild card contenders.

 

LOLOLOL. As the British say, "That's mental." This team is on pace to go 58-104. Last place. By definition we are the farthest away from competing. 

[T_J]

If they are going to explore trading Dozier due to his current "high" value, they also need to explore moving Santana too. They can't expect a repeat of this season, nor will they see a repeat. Moving Santana must also be a priority for the Twins this offseason.

 

I don't see the huge returns for Dozier that other see, but I hope(As my dad always said, put hope in one and and **** in the other and see which fills up first) they can get something for him. Despite his great season, he is still maybe the 10th best second baseman in baseball. In this day and age, most GMs will not be wooed by a single season of great hitting. They will see the decline in defense too. I don't think most teams would even have him playing second. 

 

There is no quick fix for this current team. They need to gather as many aa/high a arms as possible and hope they pan out on an express level. That's why they should try to get for Dozier and Santana. They will have to cross their fingers and hope that the new front office has a better plan in place to produce better pitchers.

[twinssporto]

 

I'm not ignoring anything. Nolasco is gone, Milone won't be back. Mejia is next man up instead of Pat Dean or whomever. I expect a rotation of

Santana
Gibson
May
Berrios
Santiago

to be as much as half a run better than this year.

Support a young, emerging bullpen and add a very good catcher and that could easily move to 1 full run per game better.

Oh I hope not.  I'm usually one of the most optimistic fans out there.  However, based on what I've witnessed the last few years that rotation would be horrible.  As I mentioned in another post yesterday:  That lineup does not overwhelm anyone nor strike fear into an opposing team.  They truly are mediocre at best (and that is being generous). 

 

Some of those guys remind me of names in the past: Blackburn, Baker, etc., etc.,