Article: What if the Twins do Nothing Today?

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?860-What-if-the-Twins-do-Nothing-Today

[DPJ]

If for the second year in a row the Twins do nothing at the deadline (except save the Pohlads some cash on the Liriano trade) I'm going to lose my mind.

[BobH]

Great article

[gunnarthor]

They needed to trade Liriano since he won't be part of next years team. They can move Span or anyone else in the offseason if they wanted to. If they aren't blown away for Span or Willingham, I don't expect them to make a trade. They still might make a small waiver trade involving Pavano or Capps in August.

 

I would like them to look at moving Perkins though. LH relievers might be over valued by some.

[Craig Arko]

If you get a great offer, take it. If you don't, wait until the offseason. I'm actually far more interested in seeing if they can get anything for Pavano and Capps, which is going to take a bit of time to develop.

[Blackjack]

Good article Seth!!! Always enjoy reading your posts!! TR did what he needed to do, got something out of Liriano, a free agent at the end of the season. Yes it would have been nice to get more but obviously other teams didn't want the head case that badly.

 

TR has had bad luck in the fact that his other two prime free agents, Pavano and Capps, are both hurt. I fully expect both of them to still be traded if they come back and pitch at all and prove they're healthy. Again, get something for the free agent at the end of the season.

 

I think the signing of Dumait tipped TR's hand, he thinks with his everyday lineup, the addition of a couple of pitchers, and the Twins can be contenders next year. Theres also the Target Field factor, without at least a contending team, attendance is down, less $8 beers and $6 hotdogs are sold. If they had a fire sale, fans will stay away in droves.

[Seth Stohs]

I would like them to look at moving Perkins though. LH relievers might be over valued by some.

Agreed!! I hope that Terry Ryan is on the phone all day long, and if they can get tremendous value for anyone, I hope he pulls the trigger. However, if he doesn't get a great deal for those guys who aren't free agents at the end of the year, there are options.

[Cap'n Piranha]

This team is 2-3 starting pitchers away from competing next year (and had Pavano, Baker, and Gibson not been injured this year, who knows where we'd be). It makes zero sense to trade a bat unless you're getting a king's ransom in return, because a top 7 of Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, and Doumit is as good as any top 7 in the AL Central, and can hold their own against any top 7 in the league.

 

The Twins took the pu-pu platter for Liriano because they are clearing space to sign starting pitching in the offseason (I hope). They couldn't risk offering Liriano 12m+ and having him jump on it, eating up money for other free agents. Therefore, getting something is better than getting nothing. It's also worth remembering that most of us were pretty upset when we traded Billy Bullock for Scott Diamond prior to last year. Thus far, that's looking like a pretty good trade.

[twinswon1991]

How will the twins get better without improvisations. the farm system? TR should look at the great work the Cubs and Astros have done this summer to build for the future. It looks like TR would rather have a poor/mediocre product than to build a team that can win in the postseason.

[gunnarthor]

How will the twins get better without improvisations. the farm system? TR should look at the great work the Cubs and Astros have done this summer to build for the future. It looks like TR would rather have a poor/mediocre product than to build a team that can win in the postseason.

sigh. You can rebuild without trading Span. Moves like Bullock for Diamond are also effective. Obviously, if Ryan gets a great offer he should take it but there's no reason for him to make a move - today - unless he likes it. If the 2013 Twins have this same rotation then there's something wrong but the FO has plenty of time before next April to make changes.

 

And your last sentence is just stupid.

[wavedog]

I guess to answer if I would be dissapointed - not really. I would prefer doing nothing to making a bad trade. We hope to use the pressure of the deadline to force a contending team to give up prize prospects that are "worth" more than we are dealing. If that doesn't happen we still have the offseason and next year. We will likely have to address our needs in Free Agency.

[minn55441]

Good article Seth!!! Always enjoy reading your posts!! TR did what he needed to do, got something out of Liriano, a free agent at the end of the season. Yes it would have been nice to get more but obviously other teams didn't want the head case that badly.

 

TR has had bad luck in the fact that his other two prime free agents, Pavano and Capps, are both hurt. I fully expect both of them to still be traded if they come back and pitch at all and prove they're healthy. Again, get something for the free agent at the end of the season.

 

I think the signing of Dumait tipped TR's hand, he thinks with his everyday lineup, the addition of a couple of pitchers, and the Twins can be contenders next year. Theres also the Target Field factor, without at least a contending team, attendance is down, less $8 beers and $6 hotdogs are sold. If they had a fire sale, fans will stay away in droves.

Nice article Seth.

 

I agree with you Jack. I also think TR tipped his hand by upping Doumit. As we have discussed all season. Pitching is the problem. If there isn't a boat load of pitching coming back in a trade, it is better to just hang onto our assets. Span and the rest have value and will continue to have value for years to come. Liriano had a ticking clock on his deal and that value ended at 3:00pm today. I'm glad TR took care of that, but the rest of the moves can happy, today, in the offseason or next year at the trade dealine. No move may and probably will be better than a desperate move.

[JB_Iowa]

But if the Twins decide not to make July trades or big offseason trades, that means that they have ever intention of competing right away in 2013.

 

This is incredibly depressing to me. Because to me it means that rather than taking some risks and being patient enough to obtain high-ceiling pitching prospects, the organization will be content to return to being "competitive in the Central" without any realistic expectations of going beyond that.

 

I realize that watching the cr*p we've watched the last 2 seasons hasn't been fun. But it still hasn't been as low a point for me as that day in October 2010 when I finally accepted that there was no way in the world that this team would advance in the playoffs unless some major changes were made.

 

NOTHING that is happening now leads me to believe that the organization has accepted that major changes need to be made. As long as they are good enough to keep the money coming into the coffers, this organization will be content with mediocrity -- never aiming for excellence.

 

Bah, humbug.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But if the Twins decide not to make July trades or big offseason trades, that means that they have ever intention of competing right away in 2013.

 

This is incredibly depressing to me. Because to me it means that rather than taking some risks and being patient enough to obtain high-ceiling pitching prospects, the organization will be content to return to being "competitive in the Central" without any realistic expectations of going beyond that.

 

I realize that watching the cr*p we've watched the last 2 seasons hasn't been fun. But it still hasn't been as low a point for me as that day in October 2010 when I finally accepted that there was no way in the world that this team would advance in the playoffs unless some major changes were made.

 

NOTHING that is happening now leads me to believe that the organization has accepted that major changes need to be made. As long as they are good enough to keep the money coming into the coffers, this organization will be content with mediocrity -- never aiming for excellence.

 

Bah, humbug.

Even if they're eyeing competing in 2013, that does not exclude them trading Span and/or Willingham... It just means that they probably won't be doing it today or this offseason.

 

The Twins moved AJ in the middle of contending when they felt they had the assets to make the move and not miss a step. Considering how long Willingham and Span are under contract, it's not hard to envision that scenario happening again (possibly minus the "contention" part).

 

It's not something I advocate doing but it's a real possibility and not necessarily a terrible idea.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be disappointed if they do not deal more.

[minn55441]

 

I realize that watching the cr*p we've watched the last 2 seasons hasn't been fun. But it still hasn't been as low a point for me as that day in October 2010 when I finally accepted that there was no way in the world that this team would advance in the playoffs unless some major changes were made.

 

Bah, humbug.

What? Losing sucks. We won 94 games in 2010. As St. Louis showed us last year, if you get to the playoffs you have a chance. Yes, our weaknesses were exposed during the 2010 series with the Yankees but I would much rather be in the playoff hunt right now and be looking at making trades that could put us over the top for this years wild card or division title.

[Boom Boom]

The Twins are 34-32 since May 16th?

 

The first six weeks of the season are inextricably tied to the team's record. A bad six-week stretch can't be overlooked because of a mediocre eight-week stretch.

 

The 2011 Twins during that same period from May 16th to July 30th were 38-30.

[Top Gun]

I don't expect the dead ass Twins to make a trade, because they never work at it.

[Winston Smith]

111-157 over the last two years and we are ok? If you keep lowering the goal, now play .500 so we can be in it in the central, then i guess we are ok.

[Chance]

With regards to the lineup, if Danny V has more games like last night I think it's not out of the question to move Plouffe to 2nd. Then we would be set for 8 spots. Plouffe filled in a little at 2nd this year and I thought he looked pretty comfortable there. I know that many will say he just got comfortable at third but given the full time starting 2nd base job I think he can hold that down.

 

Clearly we need pitching but I can only seeing TR signing one pitcher with a 4.00 or higher again that is an inning eater. By mid season we have Devries Walters/Deduno back up here.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

This teams needs way too much help to stand pat at the trade deadline. We don't need Span and Willingham to help us win a playoff series in 2017 or whenever. They've lowered the payroll enough that if they have to eat some of Morneua's contract to get a decent prospect they need to.

 

I'll be very disappointed if they stand pat this year. (Understanding, of course, that if the offers aren't there you don't make a move. That will just shift my frustrations from the FO to the Universe)

[DaveW]

Honestly, I'd be dissapointed is if they don't trade Carroll today, or if you won't trade Carroll trade Alexi for anything you can get.

 

I'd prefer we trade Span for some great package today as well but I just don't think it is out there at this point, maybe the trade market in the off-season will be better.

 

I'd like to hold onto Willingham and Morneau on into next season, unless we are blown away by an offer.

 

Pavano and Capps should both be dealt in August

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

With regards to the lineup, if Danny V has more games like last night I think it's not out of the question to move Plouffe to 2nd. Then we would be set for 8 spots. Plouffe filled in a little at 2nd this year and I thought he looked pretty comfortable there. I know that many will say he just got comfortable at third but given the full time starting 2nd base job I think he can hold that down.

But what would make us think that Danny V is going to have more nights like that? He's just not a very good baseball player who has gotten worse over the last 2 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Honestly, I'd be dissapointed is if they don't trade Carroll today, or if you won't trade Carroll trade Alexi for anything you can get.

 

I'd prefer we trade Span for some great package today as well but I just don't think it is out there at this point, maybe the trade market in the off-season will be better.

 

I'd like to hold onto Willingham and Morneau on into next season, unless we are blown away by an offer.

 

Pavano and Capps should both be dealt in August

Pretty much this. Take what you can get for either Alexi or Carroll today.

 

Aggressively push Willingham, Span, and Perkins. Trade if the right deal comes along.

 

Listen to offers on Morneau.

[DaveW]

But what would make us think that Danny V is going to have more nights like that? He's just not a very good baseball player who has gotten worse over the last 2 years.

Unless Danny V turns it around in a big way I can't see him being apart of this org heading into 2013.

[Jim Crikket]

On the nose, Seth!

 

People get some kind of "fever" at the end of July and think everything has to be done NOW. It's simply not true. The reason you make a big deal now, as a seller, is that the deadline is when contending teams tend to overpay for talent. If you're the GM of a seller, you do exactly what TR is doing... wait for someone to offer to overpay for your guys. If you don't get a home run of an offer, there's no reason to make a deal right now. The offseason will see more teams interested in improving for 2013 when they can all start fresh. (Think the Mariners and Cubs won't be interested in hitters during the offseason?)

 

I also don't see why it should be depressing if TR indicates a belief the team can be built to compete within the Division in 2013. That doesn't preclude improving enough to go deeper in 2014 when you'd hope some of the Twins prospects are closer to stepping up. You're more likely to go deeper in 2014 if you've at least rebuilt a sense of competitiveness in the clubhouse in 2013.

 

There's simply no rush to dismantle your offense just because your pitching needs improvement. If TR isn't allowed to spend the money to improve pitching in the offseason, THEN fans can legitimately complain (as we did last offseason for the same reason).

[Thrylos]

I think that here is part of the root of the problem with this team:

According to Twins mlb.com writer Rhett Bollinger, the Twins are 34-32 since May 16^th. If not for a horrendous first six weeks of the season, the Twins could be in contention for a playoff spot. Maybe this team isn’t as far away from contending for a playoff berth as we think?

a. you cannot cut the season in chunks look at the best chunk and hope that what happened then is the "truth". They did that last season, stayed put at the deadline and ended up losing 99. Lesson not learned?

 

b. if we are ok with them making the post-season instead of being competitive in the post-season and making and winning the World Series, it will never happen.

 

 

Back to the original premise, if they do nothing, it will reinforce my belief that for the Twins to win (see b. above - which have not done until MacPhail was the GM) this whole front office team needs to go from the top to the bottom and new blood needs to come...

[mikeee]

The Twins are 34-32 since May 16th?

 

The first six weeks of the season are inextricably tied to the team's record. A bad six-week stretch can't be overlooked because of a mediocre eight-week stretch.

 

The 2011 Twins during that same period from May 16th to July 30th were 38-30.

They had a lot of players in and out of the lineup during that time that are gone now.

Sean Burroughs is gone, Luke Hughes, Clete Thomas, Jason Marquis.

Ben Revere was in the minors then too. I think they did a lot of experimenting and it all failed.

Now they have solidified the lineup. Capps and Pavano have not been a part of this winning, so we can see they

are not needed.

 

2011, they sure put together a big steak. I do remember that.

[strumdatjag]

This is a Twins team witt one glaring weakness: Starting Pitching. Fix that and their won loss record turns aroundf fast. They have a great line-up, adequate defense (it could be better) and decent relief pitching. Despite their record, this is not a time to completely blow up the roster with bad trades (but they should always be open to improve the team through good trades, there should be very few untouchables on this team). The formula for success in the next five years is to add to the starting pitching staff now and add one or two rookies a season to maintain adequacy to excellence. Add one or two free agent starters (or thru trades) and hope for Baker to bounce back, and Hendrix and Gibson to provide some help sometime next year. The Twins will just have to eat Blackburn's contract if they are fortunate enough to put together a decent rotation which makes Blackie expendable.

[DaveW]

They had a lot of players in and out of the lineup during that time that are gone now.

Sean Burroughs is gone, Luke Hughes, Clete Thomas, Jason Marquis.

Ben Revere was in the minors then too. I think they did a lot of experimenting and it all failed.

Now they have solidified the lineup. Capps and Pavano have not been a part of this winning, so we can see they

are not needed.

 

2011, they sure put together a big steak. I do remember that.

They put together a big streak right before the deadline causing them to only be like 5 or so games out of first place at the time.

 

Also I think you are forgetting Plouffe as anohter guy who really wasn't playing at the start of the season, also Mauer and Morneau both started rather slow coming back from injuries.

 

I have said it before and will say it again, with this current roster the Twins are basically a .500 team, the hitting, defense and bullpen are all good enough to compete (could upgrades be made? Sure), its going to all come down to the starting pitching moving forward into 2013 onwards.

 

I'd say this team is 3 SP away from competing next year, ideally Gibson and Hendriks could be two of those pitchers and Ryan can go out and spend his money on a guy like Sanchez for the third.