Article: The Anti-Arcia: Rosario Resurrected In Rochester

[Tom Froemming]

Back in late May, Eddie Rosario appeared to be destined to become this season's Danny Santana and fall prey to the sophomore slump so many had predicted. After an electric rookie season, Rosario stumbled mightily out of the gate this year and was sent down to Rochester.

 

Unlike Oswaldo Arcia before him, Rosario responded well to the demotion and is quietly having a nice second half.At the time of his demotion, Rosario was at serious risk of becoming an afterthought if he couldn't find some success in Triple A. Robbie Grossman was called up the same day and got off to a brilliant start. Miguel Sano was still occupying right field and Arcia was also still on the roster at that point.

 

Rosario was joining a Rochester outfield that already included Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Adam Walker. If things went poorly, it was entirely possible Eddie wouldn't make it back to Target Field until September, or (like Arcia in '15) not at all. But instead, Rosario went down, took care of business and the rest of the cards fell in his favor.

 

In 41 games with the Red Wings, he posted a .319/.343/.538 slash line and tallied seven home runs, earning a promotion on July 3. His numbers have been markedly better since his recall, even though it doesn't appear Rosario has made any major adjustments. He still swings at everything.

 

He swings at 58% of pitches, which ranks third of 184 hitters to log 800 plate appearances over the past two seasons (only Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop swing more often). And since his recall, he's still striking out in over 25% of his plate appearances and drawing walks less than 4% of the time.

 

But, thanks to a .143 point increase in BABIP (.244 vs. .387), the rest of his numbers look great. And while there's certainly some luck involved, with Rosario hitting fewer fly balls than most batters (38.5 FB%) and possessing good wheels, you'd think he'd be a good candidate to sustain a higher than average BABIP.

 

Either way, Rosario's current totals (.268/.294/.420) are probably a pretty fair representation of who he is as a hitter. He's not nearly as bad as he was at the start of the year (.200/.218/..313), but also probably not as good as he's been since his return (.307/.336./.482). In the end you're left with a guy who's been a slightly below average hitter so far in his career (96 OPS+). Despite his flaws, there's still a lot to like about Rosario's game.

 

He hasn't looked comfortable in center or right, but Rosario has been among the best left fielders in baseball the past two years. Among players who've logged at least 1,000 innings in left field, Rosario's UZR/150 of 11.1 ranks fourth, ahead of highly regarded defenders such as Alex Gordon and Starling Marte.

 

He also rates out as an elite base runner. His 6.9 UBR ranks sixth among the 184 hitters with at least 800 plate appearance the past two seasons. And while he still has strides to take at the dish, it is refreshing to see a young left-handed hitter hold his own against fellow southpaws (.739 OPS vs. RHP and .719 vs. LHP for his career).

 

There's also a lot to like about his age and contract status, as Rosario isn't arbitration eligible until 2018. He turns 25 later this month, and while some people would like to see the team call up Adam Walker or Daniel Palka, both those guys are only a few weeks younger than Eddie. Whether they provide any upside over Rosario is highly debatable, seeing as both Walker (38.0 K%) and Palka (38.6 K%) had alarming issues making contact in Rochester.

 

If there's one word I'd use to describe Rosario's game it would be aggressive. And it's his aggressive brand of play that leads him into trouble. We've seen him flail at countless terrible pitches, overthrow cutoff men and run into outs. But we've also seen him do things like get outs by throwing behind runners and score from second base on sacrifice bunts.

 

When you get to see a player's flaws on a regular basis like that they become magnified and it can warp your perception. It can wear you down as a fan to see a guy make the same mistakes over and over. But, just the same as Walker and Palka, Rosario is not a finished product. He still has time to smooth out those rough spots in his game. He still has upside.

 

It's anybody's guess how the new front office will view Eddie Rosario, but he deserves credit for playing his way back into the picture. No, he hasn't quite lived up to his impressive rookie showing, but his turnaround is a much welcomed sight after watching both Arcia and Danny Santana fail to get things back on track after encouraging early showings.

 

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[Tom Froemming]

Quick Eddie update: Phil Miller reports he's in Molitor's dog house after making a dumb decision in the ninth inning of last night's game. Here's a link to the video.

 

Again, it was a stupid idea, but Eddie's arm has been special. Since the start of last season, only Starling Marte has more outfield assists and he's played over 600 more innings.

 

Should be interesting to see who gets the nod out in left tomorrow. Robbie Grossman was a triple shy of the cycle last night, but Rosie did hit a home run off of Friday's starter Danny Salazar earlier this season.

[jimmer]

Often large outfield assist totals are about opportunity with people running a lot on someone. Alfonso Soriano was able to have a few years where he got a lot of assists too.

 

Yes, Rosario has gunned some people down, but he's also made some bad throws that allowed runners to advance and he's also allowed runners to advance due to ill-advised throws (i.e., throwing to the wrong place because he over-estimated his ability).

 

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

Edited September 9, 2016 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Great article. Looks like Rosario was trying to do too much on that play, so I'm not sure what Molitor's problem is. I thought Molitor said would rather pull a guy back from being too aggressive than have to get a guy stirred up.

 

I doubt Rosario will ever be a great hitter but not everyone in the lineup needs to be a great hitter. He is good in the field. I hadn't checked on his UZR and didn't realize it was that high.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

Rosario is extremely talented but young and still learning what is possible at the major league level.

[alarp33]

He has a 3.8% BB rate and .387 BABIP since returning from Rochester. Resurrected? Not so much

Edited September 9, 2016 by alarp33

[Tom Froemming]

 

Often large outfield assist totals are about opportunity with people running a lot on someone. Alfonso Soriano was able to have a few years where he got a lot of assists too.

 

Yes, Rosario has gunned some people down, but he's also made some bad throws that allowed runners to advance and he's also allowed runners to advance due to ill-advised throws (i.e., throwing to the wrong place because he over-estimated his ability).

 

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

These are all legit concerns, but the tools are all there. You should be able to coach a guy to make smarter decisions and in time he should improve his plate discipline. You can't really teach anybody to run faster or throw harder.

 

I would agree he should be a 4th OF but only if he can't improve from what he is now. But, the guy's still only 24. He lost some development time from his minor league suspension and they tried to teach him second base one year. Could explain why he's so raw out there, maybe not.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Great article. Looks like Rosario was trying to do too much on that play, so I'm not sure what Molitor's problem is. I thought Molitor said would rather pull a guy back from being too aggressive than have to get a guy stirred up. I doubt Rosario will ever be a great hitter but not everyone in the lineup needs to be a great hitter. He is good in the field. I hadn't checked on his UZR and didn't realize it was that high.

It was a bad play, but you make an excellent point. Molitor did call a team meeting and urged the guys to go out and try to make plays instead of worrying about making mistakes. Kind of a mixed message.

[THE DFC]

 

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

 

Don't understand this one bit.  A 24-year-old with a quality minor league track record that has a 120 tOPS+ since being called back up, is one of the better left fielders defensively this season and is an excellent base runner should be a 4th outfielder?  

 

How about we play him for the next 3 years in a row, so he learns from his mistakes and becomes a smart player when he hits his physical prime versus just writing him off?  

 

This cut-throat mentality for our sub 26-year-old high-level prospects is frankly dumbfounding to me. 

[Woody Wants Wins]

Theres playing aggressive and there is playing without a concern for the team.  A mistake in the first 4-5 innings is one thing,  A MAJOR mistake in the 9th inning of a game you have a chance to win is something else. My biggest complaint about Rosario is that he always wants to be the hero.  He never does things for the team.  When the Twins need a bunt, he should be lifted for a pinchhitter.  He doesn't want to do that. He won't hit behind the runner when there is a guy on 2B.  I will say he has a lot of talent and I hope those things can be corrected because he needs to play next year.  

[old nurse]

It is not s much the BABIP as it is BA to BABIP.  A 40 point difference would seem to be the new normal.  68 points for Rosario would probably be unsustainable.  Votto sticks around 50,   It can be done, but rare. It would require resources I do not have to figure out why it has gone up.  Aggressive swingers may make that difference. Higher LD% low IFFB % might play a factor for high BABIP.   Aggressive swings on 2 strike pitches rather than just trying to make contact seems logical, but I would  prefer to see data.

[big dog]

Agreed, but the time to make a play is not when you are allowing the tying run to get into scoring position in the ninth inning, by trying to throw out a runner who really doesn't matter too much...

[darin617]

 

Quick Eddie update: Phil Miller reports he's in Molitor's dog house after making a dumb decision in the ninth inning of last night's game. Here's a link to the video.

 

Again, it was a stupid idea, but Eddie's arm has been special. Since the start of last season, only Starling Marte has more outfield assists and he's played over 600 more innings.

 

Should be interesting to see who gets the nod out in left tomorrow. Robbie Grossman was a triple shy of the cycle last night, but Rosie did hit a home run off of Friday's starter Danny Salazar earlier this season.

That played bothered me as well. I would paid anything to see a manager pull an outfielder out of a game when they make a bad decision like that throw. It would be a wake up call to all to quit making poor decisions. The Twins are playing for nothing so why not send a message.

[Tom Froemming]

 

He has a 3.8% BB rate and .387 BABIP since returning from Rochester. Resurrected? Not so much

That's like looking at a glass that's half full and saying that it's completely empty. And by only taking his hitting into account, you're also looking at the glass with one eye. And it's your bad eye.

 

This article was intended to be read with Rosario colored glasses  

 

Yes, those are real concerns.

[DocBauer]

A couple things:

 

*I think he tries too hard sometimes. Your choice of the word "aggressive" to describe him is dead on. But teams also need that kind of player and personality, especially when they are as athletically gifted as Rosario. Time and experience should help Polish him though.

 

*With his tools and potential, I wouldn't even think of making a 4th OF any time soon. If he plateaus or someone else flat out takes the job, OK. Not saying he will, but what if Granite is the real deal, plays a good LF, and provides speed and OB ahead of Buxton in the lineup, for instance?

 

*Rosario will be sooooo much the better ballplayer if he just curbs some of that aggressiveness and quits looking like a drunk lumberjack on those pitches that are head high, in the dirt, or headed outside toward the dugout. With his natural ability, just a little more restraint will make him that much more effective and dangerous.

 

*Looking at his milb track record, he hit and produced everywhere except first his "second" stint following his suspended first half a couple years ago. And while he has never been a BB or OB machine, I believe he never had a AVG vs OB differential that was lower than around 40-42%, meaning he wasn't immune to a walk. Again, a little more Polish and restraint, and look out. A dynamic 6-7 place hitter with quality defense.

[stringer bell]

I don't have any stats to back it u, but i have seen some incremental change in Rosario's selectivity. He has gotten ahead more and thus gotten better pitches to hit. I doubt Rosario will ever walk much, but if he forces the pitcher to throw strikes, he will improve.

 

As far as the ill-advised throw, Eddie has done that several times. At what point is it too many poor decisions? Perhaps Rosario crossed that threshold last night.

[Jham]

I think too much is made of that throw to the plate. He took a risk. A good throw nails him he's out and the game ends if Murphy just hold on to the ball. Royals were giving us an out if you can execute the throw and catch. Dyson could have easily stolen and scored and we let a gettable out walk home. To me, it's similar to his getting thrown out stealing third to end the inning. If you're gonna try it, you better make it. I think he saw it as an easy out and a throw he can make 8/10 times. The risk probably outweighed the reward in that case, but probably not by as much as people are making it out to be. I think they didn't like the result. I mean, again, if murphy catches the ball, even with a fast from perfect throw, the runners out, game over.

[kab21]

 

Often large outfield assist totals are about opportunity with people running a lot on someone. Alfonso Soriano was able to have a few years where he got a lot of assists too.

 

Yes, Rosario has gunned some people down, but he's also made some bad throws that allowed runners to advance and he's also allowed runners to advance due to ill-advised throws (i.e., throwing to the wrong place because he over-estimated his ability).

 

This team has to play smarter baseball.  Too many fundamental mistakes. And for Rosario, between poor defensive fundamentals and the need to swing at anything within a 5 mile radius of the strike zone, he's got major holes in his game.  It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.

Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.

[Platoon]

Jham made some interesting points. When I saw him throw it, I thought ugh, go to second. But as it got there, he beat the runner by 5', but off the plate. With a catchable chest high throw. Results matter of course. But the guy who made the biggest mistake was the third base coach, sending home the non tying run with two outs, against probably the best LF arm in baseball in the last two years. The second mistake was the catcher (Murphy?) not getting into postion to catch it, and not catching it, the third mistake was the ball was offline, but not fatelly so. Who did what counts, Grossman and one of the Shaefer twins should have thrown to second. Rosario could have, and I am sure no one would have commented about the player trotting to the plate about the time Dozier had the ball. Molitor is not unhappy the the play went that way, he's unhappy that Rosario did it. Anyone care to guess what his reaction would have been if it had been Plouffe, Suzuki, Dozier, or Mauer?

[Platoon]

IF I am reading FanGraphs correctly, and thats a big IF last year Rosario had 16 assists, not sure if they were all clean throw outs. Suzuki had 14 CS. This year it's Rosaio 10 and Suzuki 12. Is that possible? For a LF to throw out more runners than a catcher? Again, I might be misinterpreting the graphs.

[jimmer]

 

IF I am reading FanGraphs correctly, and thats a big IF last year Rosario had 16 assists, not sure if they were all clean throw outs. Suzuki had 14 CS. This year it's Rosaio 10 and Suzuki 12. Is that possible? For a LF to throw out more runners than a catcher? Again, I might be misinterpreting the graphs.

You're not misinterpreting the graphs. What you're looking at can be found on most any sports site.  They are basic defensive stats that have been around for quite some time, no cutting edge info. That info can be found on ESPN, MLB dot com, Baseball-Reference, etc.  I'm really not sure what the point of comparing CS to outfield assists is though.

Edited September 9, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.

 

Well, I didn't say he's a 4th OF now, I said, 'It's why I think his future SHOULD BE 4th OF.'

 

Seems clear that the Twins DON'T have better options now so he's a starter now. Hopefully they will in the future.

 

It's like I don't call Santana an ACE type starter just because he's easily our best starter. His talent level says screams top notch 3 starter or the lower end of #2 starter, not Ace.

Edited September 9, 2016 by jimmer

[wsnydes]

 

It was a bad play, but you make an excellent point. Molitor did call a team meeting and urged the guys to go out and try to make plays instead of worrying about making mistakes. Kind of a mixed message.

Part of making plays is knowing when to make them.  Discretion is the better part of valor.  There are times when a play isn't the correct thing to do.  It isn't needed.  The message is double speak from a distance, but I would imagine that the context in which that message was delivered was about picking your spots better.

[Old Twins Cap]

If I am pitching to Rosario, why throw him a strike?  Ever.  Let him get himself out.

 

That level of scouting will permeate the MLB approach to him if he doesn't learn to lay off bad balls.  It will, and his ability to mash will be reduced.

[gocgo]

 

That played bothered me as well. I would paid anything to see a manager pull an outfielder out of a game when they make a bad decision like that throw. It would be a wake up call to all to quit making poor decisions. The Twins are playing for nothing so why not send a message.

I yelled at the TV when I saw him charging in to make the throw...and as crazy a play as it was, if JRM catches the ball, I think the guy is out at home.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Theres playing aggressive and there is playing without a concern for the team.  A mistake in the first 4-5 innings is one thing,  A MAJOR mistake in the 9th inning of a game you have a chance to win is something else. My biggest complaint about Rosario is that he always wants to be the hero.  He never does things for the team.  When the Twins need a bunt, he should be lifted for a pinchhitter.  He doesn't want to do that. He won't hit behind the runner when there is a guy on 2B.  I will say he has a lot of talent and I hope those things can be corrected because he needs to play next year.  

 

i'm curious how you know what is going on in his mind.

 

Hitting behind a runner for a productive out is stupid baseball, btw.

[wsnydes]

 

That played bothered me as well. I would paid anything to see a manager pull an outfielder out of a game when they make a bad decision like that throw. It would be a wake up call to all to quit making poor decisions. The Twins are playing for nothing so why not send a message.

The fact that this is still occurring with regularity from Rosario is a sign that a) he isn't being coached to do it differently, or b ) the message isn't getting through to him.  At this point in the season, this is a thing that should be corrected considering how frequently Rosario airmails cutoff men allowing the trail runner to advance.  That's a problem with coaching.  It's a big problem considering the youth on this team that needs to develop for it to improve.  It's an insult to my intelligence to hear Polhad rave about the value of Molitor's baseball acumen.  If he's unable to transfer that knowledge to his players or allow it to govern his managerial decisions, then of what use is it?

 

To further your point about a message, a couple of weeks ago the Rays sent a guy down immediately for not hustling to home plate and scoring before the batter was thrown out at 2B before the run scored.  That's a bad team that still expects things to be done a certain way and has value in accountability. 

Edited September 9, 2016 by wsnydes

[alarp33]

 

That's like looking at a glass that's half full and saying that it's completely empty. And by only taking his hitting into account, you're also looking at the glass with one eye. And it's your bad eye.

 

This article was intended to be read with Rosario colored glasses

 

Yes, those are real concerns.

 

My point is I think we are seeing the exact same Rosario we saw in April / May, with a lot better luck.  I don't think anything was fixed in Rochester, as he's still allergic to walks and swings at everything.  

 

I guess it depends how much you believe plate discipline can be learned at the MLB level, for whether you think he will be a solid starter going forward.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

It was a bad play, but you make an excellent point. Molitor did call a team meeting and urged the guys to go out and try to make plays instead of worrying about making mistakes. Kind of a mixed message.

 

Not just a bad play though, this is a horrendous play. Even slow pitch softball players have the awareness to know that the lead runner doesn't matter, the one who matters is the guy rounding first. This isn't a mistake of aggression, it's a mistake of stupidity and a lack of awareness. Fully support Molitor sitting him - it's okay to be aggressive on the basepaths, it's not okay to not understand a pretty simple situation. Hopefully a day or two off will remind Eddie he needs to know where he is in the game.

 

If this were a reasonably competitive softball team, half the team would be yelling at the guy to use his head.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Hitting behind a runner for a productive out is stupid baseball, btw.

 

Depends on the situation.

 

First inning, nobody out, guy on second, yeah it's dumb. And it's irritating when Bert will praise a guy for a productive out in that situation - it's still an out early in the game and while it's a benefit, it's not worthy of effusive praise.

 

9th inning, same situation in a tie game? You have to hit that ball to the right side of the field. It doesn't mean you're trying for an out but your #1 bare minimum job is to move that runner to 3rd base.