Article: Examining Alex Anthopoulos

[belker]

One fairly big trade during AA's time in Toronto that hasn't been discussed is the trade with the Cardinals in 2011 for Colby Rasmus.  Along with Rasmus, the Cards sent Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters to the Toronto Blue Jays for Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson and Marc Rzepczynski.

 

I don't have salary figures, but at the time this was a trade of a young talent for veterans.  It was widely critiqued as LaRussa giving up on young talent due to a personality conflict.  AA was praised for getting a young talent for vets he didn't need.  And Rasmus draws a lot of walks, so AA was praised by the "Bill James" crowd.

 

This trade ended up helping the Cards win the Series that year.  Rasmus never quite took that step to stardom he was expected to.  But I think it also shows that AA was willing to dump vets for young talent, which is something many Twins fans would be on board with.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cherington has Boston 1999-2015 on his resume, which looks awfully nice, even if he was only GM for the last few years.

 

Anthropolous did some nice work in Toronto, but their overall body of work during his tenure (2005-2015, 2009-2015 as GM) isn't nearly as impressive.

 

Either would seem like a pretty impressive hire for the Twins, but it does seem like Cherington's background might be better suited to building a sustained winner (even their couple recent losing seasons seemed to be springboards to more winning).

 

Obviously it's more likely to come down to, who is willing to come here (if either one of them is).

[tobi0040]

 

So, keep on doing things the Twins Way??  I think AA is exactly the "type of guy" that the Twins organization needs.   Now, if he is "The Guy" is TBD.

 

I would not have any concerns about a new approach.  But he has had a payroll in the $135m range in Toronto.  In 2013 and 2014 his payroll was $20m more than the league average.

 

I don't think the Twins are in a position to move prospects for veterans, if they do they can't do it multiple times over a five year stretch.  I think we would be tapped out relatively quickly.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think it is fair to say "he had a bigger payroll before, so he can't work here"....which I don't THINK anyone is saying......

 

We just don't know what he'd do with a smaller payroll as a constraint.

[markos]

 

No good President of Baseball Operations will accept a job and then defer to ownership over how to choose their underlings.

 

If a POBO keeps Antony, it's for one of two reasons:

 

1. The Twins picked a lousy POBO who can't/won't make their own decisions, which defeats the purpose of a POBO at all

2. The Twins picked a decent POBO and they decided Antony was a good choice to steer the ship

3. The POBO decided that they needed time to evaluate Antony (and others), and the best way to do that is to leave them in place.

4. The POBO's top choice for GM is currently unavailable due to contract constraints, and they decided to temporarily hang on to Antony until said person is available.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

3. The POBO decided that they needed time to evaluate Antony (and others), and the best way to do that is to leave them in place.

4. The POBO's top choice for GM is currently unavailable due to contract constraints, and they decided to temporarily hang on to Antony until said person is available.

Oh sure, I didn't mean to suggest if the POBO kept Antony that it automatically meant the decision was permanent. There are plenty of reasons to keep a guy around while you evaluate your options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3. The POBO decided that they needed time to evaluate Antony (and others), and the best way to do that is to leave them in place.

4. The POBO's top choice for GM is currently unavailable due to contract constraints, and they decided to temporarily hang on to Antony until said person is available.

 

Personally, I'd just rather the POBO served as his own acting GM.  Nothing against Antony, but he hardly needs to be evaluated further given the prominent position he's had in this organization since 2007, and how our performance over that time has already gotten two other GMs dismissed.

[Riverbrian]

AA certainly has shown aggressiveness. 

 

I don't know if he would be good or bad... but I'd bet on aggressive change. 

[h2oface]

I don't think it is fair to say "he had a bigger payroll before, so he can't work here"....which I don't THINK anyone is saying......

 

We just don't know what he'd do with a smaller payroll as a constraint.

 

Terry Ryan always told us - and people who knew him personally testified he was the most honest person they knew - that there were no salary restrictions. It appears he just wouldn't spend the money he could have. Pohlad also confirmed that more than once. The TD meme of salary limitations could be clouded in opinion, and not fact. Time to have someone not afraid to push the limits that don't exist.

 

Anthopalooza time!

[Rosterman]

 

Let me first say that AA would be a huge talent upgrade over the rest of the front office.  Part of me wonders if he is the absolute right fit given the way in which he went about himself in Toronto may not work here, the big splashy trades for veterans.  The trade where he took on the contracts of Reyes and Mark B. for example just would not fly here.   But the guy had the following win totals in the AL East, 85, 81, 73, 74, 83, and 93.  The reality is he is probably smart enough to realize what worked there might not work here.

 

The devil is going to be in the details. I hope during the interview process, the candidates get a look under the hood and some assurances from the Pohlad’s that they have the budget to make the necessary changes.  He added 26 scouts to the payroll in Toronto (almost a 100% increase).  Would the Pohlad’s be on board with that?  What about doubling the analytics department and the front office?  That is going to be the key.  Someone posted the relative size of some of the front offices out there based on their team websites and compared to the Twins.  It looks like a look under the hood will conclude for a new GM that this franchise has been running bare bones for a while now.  That is probably as important of a change as if we land on AA vs. Cherington.

Yeah, where would the money come from to double, say, the size of the front office and actually pay people. Of course, the Twins do have 45% of their budget for non-salaried baseball players....which is somewhere towards $100 million to run the baseball operations (compared to $45 million pre-Target Field days). I'm not sure what they currently dedicate to the front office, to baseball operations, to minor league operations. Know they spend $10-12 million on draftees, it seems. I would assume they paid off their own Target Field debt sooner rather than later (so they could borrow against the team worth as Uncle Carl was noted to do). Someday I hope someone gets a detailed look into a decade of finances of a major league team and where the money comes from and where it does go.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Personally, I'd just rather the POBO served as his own acting GM.  Nothing against Antony, but he hardly needs to be evaluated further given the prominent position he's had in this organization since 2007, and how our performance over that time has already gotten two other GMs dismissed.

I tend to agree - I'd prefer to see Antony out of the GM chair - but I'm sticking to my opinion that the new POBO gets something approaching a free pass for their first 3-4 months on the job.

 

There's a lot to sort out and a lot to do. I don't expect Antony to be retained but I wouldn't fault the new POBO if they want someone with organizational experience near them as they attempt to restructure.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't think it is fair to say "he had a bigger payroll before, so he can't work here"....which I don't THINK anyone is saying......

 

We just don't know what he'd do with a smaller payroll as a constraint.

 

Exactly. If we found an organization that has done more with less or more with the same than I would be more inclined.

 

The Cardinals, according to this list have topped out on payroll about where the Twins did. In the $115-120m range.  They have consistently been outside the top 8 and have a ton to show for it.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2013_payroll

[nicksaviking]

 

 

There's a lot to sort out and a lot to do. I don't expect Antony to be retained but I wouldn't fault the new POBO if they want someone with organizational experience near them as they attempt to restructure.

 

I agree that there likely will be some personnel who get to remain as there are a lot of seats to fill. I might think Anthony might be among the least likely though as it would mean a demotion and your predecessor looking over your shoulder. I'd think maybe Krivsky would be a likely carryover due to his experience in the front office and his background as a scout as well. Maybe Radcliff stays or even Daron Johnson in a different capacity.

 

I don't know what happened in any of the other places with drastic changes, but I can't imagine that the whole scouting system got scrapped and they started over with completely new bodies. So my guess is the most likely higher-ups to stay would be involved with that side of things.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

AA would be my No. 1 option, but I doubt he'll be interested. Gotta believe he can have pretty much any job that opens up.

 

Something to keep in mind about some of those moves is the status of the Blue Jays at the time. I believe prior to winning the AL East last season they had the longest playoff drought in baseball. It was time for them to try and make a run.

 

I thought it was incredibly bold for Toronto to sign Jose Bautista to a 5-year, $64 million extension in 2011. He had just one standout year, was already 30-years-old and they already had him under contract that season. Thought it was nuts at the time, but that has to be one of the best contracts in baseball history. Edwin Encarnacion's 3-year, $27 million extension in July of 2012 was another banner deal for Anthopolous.

 

Not to pick nits, but it was incredibly bold to sign Phil Hughes to an extension too... and there are similarities there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree that there likely will be some personnel who get to remain as there are a lot of seats to fill. I might think Anthony might be among the least likely though as it would mean a demotion and your predecessor looking over your shoulder. I'd think maybe Krivsky would be a likely carryover due to his experience in the front office and his background as a scout as well. Maybe Radcliff stays or even Daron Johnson in a different capacity.

 

I don't know what happened in any of the other places with drastic changes, but I can't imagine that the whole scouting system got scrapped and they started over with completely new bodies. So my guess is the most likely higher-ups to stay would be involved with that side of things.

That's what I suspect as well. Some organizational people will stay but probably neither the GM nor the assistant GM.

 

And I think a fair amount of the scouting department will stick around, if not the majority of it. You can't replace that system overnight and it's not like you can fire all your scouts and then re-hire new scouts over a six month period. People need to be all over the country and world, watching baseball games pretty much year-round.

[diehardtwinsfan]

from the sounds of things, MN in general has less staff across the board. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the scouting department stayed and a whole bunch of new ones were added.  AA, I'd note, did something like that in Toronto. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Not to pick nits, but it was incredibly bold to sign Phil Hughes to an extension too... and there are similarities there.

Don't get how that has anything to do with Anthopoulos ... but whoever the Twins bring in is going to have to be good at identifying which players to extend. All these young guys who've come up the past two seasons are all going to be eligible for free agency around the same time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Don't get how that has anything to do with Anthopoulos ... but whoever the Twins bring in is going to have to be good at identifying which players to extend. All these young guys who've come up the past two seasons are all going to be eligible for free agency around the same time.

 

The reasons not to extend Hughes are very similar to the ones that would exist to not have extended Bautista.  That was more or less my point.  Don't get me wrong, AA hit a home run there, but by logic we've all heard here on TD on many occasions (not necessarily from you), he shouldn't have... 

 

Side note, I'm not against an AA signing here.  He's not my first choice, but I'd be happy if he was the guy they got. 

[JustinCB]

 

I don't think he is a good fit for the Twins.

Whelp, him and TR probably wouldn't get along, but who cares!  That guy don't work there no more.

[Tom Froemming]

Jon Heyman just wrote about the 20 best trades of the past two seasons. The Donaldson trade was No. 1, but AA was also behind No. 15: the Devon Travis for Anthony Gose trade. 

[jimmer]

 

Jon Heyman just wrote about the 20 best trades of the past two seasons. The Donaldson trade was No. 1, but AA was also behind No. 15: the Devon Travis for Anthony Gose trade. 

The Donaldson trade is probably the best trade this century (at least from the Jays side, not Oakland's side so much).

Edited September 8, 2016 by jimmer

[Riverbrian]

 

from the sounds of things, MN in general has less staff across the board. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the scouting department stayed and a whole bunch of new ones were added.  AA, I'd note, did something like that in Toronto. 

 

When you consider the cost of Free Agents. Drafting and Development has to be extremely important to the long term health of an organization. 

 

Cutting corners here seems absolutely goofy. 

 

If I was the POBO... I'd not only expand but seriously compete for the best of the best by doubling salaries and that additional expense would add up to less than what Kurt Suzuki makes. 

 

For example... Not only would I expand our analytics department to help assess baseball talent. I'd also create a separate analytics department that only focuses on front office personnel across the league.

 

Truly identify the best of the best with actual data and make offers that they can't refuse. 

 

 

 

[Eris]

Here is an analysis of the Dickey - Syndergaard trade.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/23/9589100/dickey-mets-blue-jays-war-trade-syndergaard-darnaud

 

The trade has the potential to be as bad as Ramos and then Span to Washington for Capp and then Meyer.  These trades with Washington provided a 20 WAR differential in favor of the Nationals.  The Dickey - Syndergaard trade is a 10 WAR benefit towards the Mets with several years of control left for the Mets.

 

I would rather the future Twins follow the Cardinals model of developing through a strong robust farm system rather than that which AA brought to the Jays.  

Edited September 8, 2016 by Eris

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Donaldson trade is probably the best trade this century (at least from the Jays side, not Oakland's side so much).

 

And Twinsdaily sided firmly with Oakland!

 

Woofta.

[jimmer]

 

And Twinsdaily sided firmly with Oakland!

 

Woofta.

I predicted Donaldson would win the AL MVP.  Seems at least some didn't think Oakland won :-)

[twinsnorth49]

I think AA would be a pretty solid choice. It's a little difficult to compare his time with the Jays with how he might approach the job in Minnesota. He was under quite a bit of pressure in Toronto to win, it's a big market team when taking into account it's National status, plus it being an AL East team. He was basically given a blank cheque from Rogers to win now, I think that influences his decision making.

 

I don't think the same conditions apply in Minnesota, sure the fan base is hungry to return to relevance but somehow I think the immediate pressure to provide a WS is a bit less. He's obviously a good evaluator of talent and isn't afraid to make moves he's feels benefits his team. I'm not sure that necessarily equates to selling the farm.

[beckmt]

Would not mind AA, would much prefer Mc Leod from the Cubs.

[h2oface]

And Twinsdaily sided firmly with Oakland!

 

Woofta.

Hmmmmmmmmm. Said with confidence though, like they knew better.

[h2oface]

Just as actors play a defining role and get type cast.... to assume one can't adapt behavior to a different organization is a bit close minded.

[DaveW]

I'd like Alex, even if he fails I would love to have a GM who was actually aggressive and would make a run to "win it all" when it makes sense.

 

The Bradford for a 1st round and 4th round pick may go down as a stupid trade, but I will be damned if I ever get too upset about it, Speilman is going for a super bowl win, and as a fan, I love it.