Article: Arizona's Cautionary Tale

[Mike Sixel]

 

Part of the problem is getting teams to recognize what they are.  How often do we sit here and have to argue that the team should be rebuilding?  Or acting like a rebuilder?  Only to have people pop on and dismiss the notion altogether.

 

You'll have some that look at any situation, regardless of talent and outlook, and say "78 wins is better than 77, to hell with 2018".  I think that's part of the thinking that was flawed in Arizona.  Again, read your context and understand where to attack to make yourself better.

 

AZ won a lot last year, made the ridiculous assumption that their players would all get better this year (ignoring what other teams have done, and possible declines in their own players' performances), and decided they needed to trade for and sign SP.

 

Sounds a lot like what the Twins could have done this off season......and kind of did. It appears the Twins assumed Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Duffey, Rosario would all get better this year.....and that they didn't need to add players. 

 

similar analyses of flawed teams (plus AZ lost it's best player for most of the year)....

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be fair to Arizona, they are in the same division as the Dodgers and Giants.  Those are some formidable opponents, which probably prompted some of this aggression.  Same for San Diego's aggressive moves under Preller.  Another recently discussed former GM, Anthopolous, was probably working under similar considerations with Toronto in the AL East.

 

The Twins fortunately don't have a comparable team in their division.  (Cleveland has some good players especially pitchers, but is pretty frugal/conservative.)  The Twins shouldn't feel the pressure to be too aggressive, but certainly some smart aggressive moves could help!

[TheLeviathan]

 

AZ won a lot last year, made the ridiculous assumption that their players would all get better this year (ignoring what other teams have done, and possible declines in their own players' performances), and decided they needed to trade for and sign SP.

 

Sounds a lot like what the Twins could have done this off season......and kind of did. It appears the Twins assumed Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Duffey, Rosario would all get better this year.....and that they didn't need to add players. 

 

similar analyses of flawed teams (plus AZ lost it's best player for most of the year)....

 

I agree, you have to see yourself for what you are.  Even if that means you don't like the answer.  I agree that they clearly didn't know what they were doing on a number of fronts, at the same time they did exactly what many here would've wanted us to do - aggressively improve the major league team.  

 

The problem was that Arizona wasn't really ready for that and has some systemic issues that prevent any real success.  (They seem, like us, totally unable to find pitching internally)  They concentrated on the wrong areas.  Where they should have been trying to improve their organizational framework for identifying and developing pitching, they chose instead to throw money and prospects as a fix.  

 

I've always seen money and trades as the way you supplement or complement.  Not as a particularly effective bread and butter strategy.  

[Major League Ready]

I would agree there were no advocates here of exactly what Arizona did last year.  However, on a more conceptual level, many people here wanted a win now approach.  There was support for trading Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios for players with 2-3 years remaining.  Shelby Miller was not seen as an ace here but he was seen as a very good pitcher and rightfully so.

 

Many people would have done back-flips for Grienke.  I recall a few people complaining because they knew the FO would not consider Grienke or Price.  I would not go so far as to say they should never consider a free agent top of the rotation guy but last year was certainly not the time and I said the exact same thing then.   Grienke and Price are under contract for 5 and 6 years respectively for $30M+ and they are already showing regression, especially Grienke.  What a disaster it would have been to bring them in. 

 

Lucroy received a lot of support.  He would have been here through next year and there were those who supported Kepler + others for LuCroy.  That would have been a  disaster!

 

Several people had a fit because they would not sign RPs to as long-term deal.  I recall very specifically, that this move and these players was not consistent with a contender.  No kidding, there was no way we were contending and nearly every national media source predicted a last source place finish.  Yet, there were many here who were furious because they were not making moves that were consistent with a win now or all in mentality.   So, while Nick’s article may not have been exactly what anyone here had in mind, the win now and spend big on FAs was definitely promoted here.

[alarp33]

 

 I don't think all of Arizona's moves were as clearly mistakes at the time as you seem to think they were. 

 

I'm speaking more based on the Keith Law column, that really went into detail on the mistakes... Yoan Lopez, leaving $1.7 million in draft budget, selling Toussaint, trading Swanson, not knowing trade rules. 

 

I'll give them a pass on Greinke and some other moves with the major league roster, if you think you can compete I think it's a defensible deal, knowing full well the back-end of his contract would likely end up as a mistake. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'm probably just nitpicking the 1st paragraph.  Practically none of the steps the Diamondbacks took under Larussa/ Stewart I would want the Twins to repeat, and I'm not concerned in the least that they will.  

It was a very general comparison. Most Twins fans would like the team to restructure the front office from outside. Most would like the new front office to be aggressive and creative in addressing the rotation. Many (perhaps not you) would like to see the team finally take a plunge on a true top FA starter. 

Definitely seems like you're nitpicking, especially when you're calling Greinke simply a "32-year-old" without acknowledging that he led baseball in ERA last year, or calling Shelby Miller a "mid-rotation starter" in hindsight. I'm sorry but these are just very slanted comments. 

 

 

So sit back, do little or nothing, and lose 550 games over six years? 

 

That's just it. This thing probably ain't going to magically fix itself. The Twins can't sit back and hope that their iffy pitching prospects eventually come up and turn around the staff or they're likely to remain in perpetual limbo.
 

[Nick Nelson]

 

9 figure contracts rarely are worthwhile. Just a couple of very puzzling decisions by Team Larussa. No way that Larussa and Stewart last the winter, do they? 

It's very easy to look back now and see these moves were foolish. But if you really feel your team is on the brink and you want to make that big push -- the kind of big push that EVERYONE was yearning for from TR when the Twins couldn't quite get over the hump in the 2000s -- these were defensible when they were made.

 

Greinke has been one of the better pitchers in the game for most of his career and posted a freakin 1.66 ERA last year. Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's very easy to look back now and see these moves were foolish. But if you really feel your team is on the brink and you want to make that big push -- the kind of big push that EVERYONE was yearning for from TR when the Twins couldn't quite get over the hump in the 2000s -- these were defensible when they were made.

 

Greinke has been one of the better pitchers in the game for most of his career and posted a freakin 1.66 ERA last year. Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

 

AZ thinking they were 1-2 players from being great was only one of their issues. I had no issue with the Grienke deal, it's just money....but the Miller deal was ridiculous. And, none of this even touches on them literally not knowing the rules for trades and other things. Not to mention their utter and complete hatred of advanced statistical analysis. 

[Willihammer]

 

I don't think anyone here wants the hire to be an old school type of guy like LaRussa.

Exactly. Pretty sure I speak for 75-80% of fans when I say hiring a dinosaur like LaRussa for his first executive job ever would be a huge disappointment.

[wsnydes]

 

I don't think the choices are choosing between going all in and just sitting back. The big issue to me at least is making intelligent and rational decisions and simply advocating change for change sake.

 

Change for change is a bad thing. Change b/c we've properly identified the problem is not.  I find most people/orgs aren't very good at problem solving personally.  But if you don't understand the actual problem, the solution will almost always make things worse.

I think this a point that gets glazed over too much.  Change for the sake of change is bad.  Change with an actual goal in mind is what needs to happen.  If you execute that phase and still fall flat, I'll take that over simply making an aimless change any day.

[alarp33]

 

It was a very general comparison. Most Twins fans would like the team to restructure the front office from outside. Most would like the new front office to be aggressive and creative in addressing the rotation. Many (perhaps not you) would like to see the team finally take a plunge on a true top FA starter. 

Definitely seems like you're nitpicking, especially when you're calling Greinke simply a "32-year-old" without acknowledging that he led baseball in ERA last year, or calling Shelby Miller a "mid-rotation starter" in hindsight. I'm sorry but these are just very slanted comments. 

 

 

 

Twins fans do want the President / GM model, I think they can and will do a lot better than 2 guys with practically no experience in Front Office roles (I know Stewart was in a FO at one point, but I think that was 10 years prior to getting AZ job).  

 

I later clarified I think the Greinke deal was defensible... I called him a 32 year old because that's pretty relevant when discussing a long term contract, not to belittle his ability.  

 

As for Miller, here a couple of quotes from the day the trade was announced. Really no hindsight about it calling him a mid-rotation starter.  If I was using hindsight, I would've called him a #5 or 6 starter

 

"Miller is the big name here but the Braves got an absolutely terrific haul of talent for a dependable, mid-rotation starter. Heck, Inciarte may be worth more than Miller by himself and is certainly proof that executives Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa are out of touch in the analytics game."

- Dave Schoenfield ESPN

"But, you know, Miller’s career xFIP is worse than the league average. His regular career FIP is worse than the league average. Last year, his ERA looked good because of home-run suppression. He’s not a proven No. 1, nor is he a proven No. 2. He’s a No. 3 with potential and a lot of innings of not quite tapping into it."

- Fangraphs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

 

No one thought of Miller as a bona fide front of the rotation starter, I think you are misremembering.  

 

I cannot recall a trade in MLB history that was as universally laughed IMMEDIATELY upon it's announcement as the Miller trade was.  

[Winston Smith]

If the Twins hire Gardy as President of Baseball Ops and he hires Rick Anderson as GM then we can all worry!

 

Greinke was only money and if the Owner wants to spend some of his billions on a very good player I won't complain. If they use it as an excuse later on using budget constraints as an excuse for doing nothing then I would complain.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I cannot recall a trade in MLB history that was as universally laughed IMMEDIATELY upon it's announcement as the Miller trade was.  

Vernon Wells to the Angels?

 

Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal is probably another one.

 

The previous Arizona regime dealing Eaton and Skaggs for Trumbo was pretty baffling.

 

A lot of folks here laughed at the White Sox trading for Shields, and they might have been right (although the White Sox didn't pick up the full contract or give up a whole lot in talent).

[Nick Nelson]

 

No one thought of Miller as a bona fide front of the rotation starter, I think you are misremembering.  

 

I cannot recall a trade in MLB history that was as universally laughed IMMEDIATELY upon it's announcement as the Miller trade was.  

I just feel like you're talking about Swanson as some sort of can't-miss stud because of his lofty prospect ranking. But Miller was a former first-round pick, a product of the inimitable Cardinals system, BA's #6 overall prospect before graduating, and a guy who found consistent success through his first several years in the majors.

I think everyone believed they overpaid, but that's what it takes to get a young, successful, controllable MLB starter. 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

[Willihammer]

 

It's very easy to look back now and see these moves were foolish. But if you really feel your team is on the brink and you want to make that big push -- the kind of big push that EVERYONE was yearning for from TR when the Twins couldn't quite get over the hump in the 2000s -- these were defensible when they were made.

 

Greinke has been one of the better pitchers in the game for most of his career and posted a freakin 1.66 ERA last year. Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

Neither of the DBacks moves were celebtrated on their own by independent outlets. Fangraphs valuated the Miller trade as a massive overpay. The Greinke contract was an overpay- even Greinke is quoted somewhere as saying "I'm not really this good." The DBacks horrible execution doesn't invalidate the strategy.

[Willihammer]

IMO the Miller trade reeks of a manager-turned-officer reaching back to get one of his former players. I realize  Miller didn't debut for the Cards until 2012 but they shared spring trainings together before that.

[alarp33]

 

I just feel like you're talking about Swanson as some sort of can't-miss stud because of his lofty prospect ranking. But Miller was a former first-round pick, a product of the inimitable Cardinals system, BA's #6 overall prospect before graduating, and a guy who found consistent success through his first several years in the majors.

I think everyone believed they overpaid, but that's what it takes to get a young, successful, controllable MLB starter. 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

 

I don't know, Swanson was literally the #1 pick in the draft 5 months before this trade. They also gave up a top 100 pitching prospect AND Ender Inciarte.  There were articles written at the time that argued 5 years of Inciarte was worth more than 3 years of Miller... completely ignoring Swanson and Blair. 

 

I get the overall point you are trying to make in your last paragraph here about timelines, I'm just disagreeing with the notion that the Diamondbacks are a good comparison.  The Twins aren't hiring Larussa and Stewart who are so far over their heads. 

[alarp33]

 

Vernon Wells to the Angels?

 

Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal is probably another one.

 

The previous Arizona regime dealing Eaton and Skaggs for Trumbo was pretty baffling.

 

A lot of folks here laughed at the White Sox trading for Shields, and they might have been right (although the White Sox didn't pick up the full contract or give up a whole lot in talent).

 

The Wells trade is good example.  

 

But there really isn't a comparison though for giving up a 4 war Center Fielder (with 5 years of control), 1st overall pick in the most recent draft, and a top 100 pitching prospect, for a guy who at best is a #2 starter with 3 years of control left. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

The Twins fortunately don't have a comparable team in their division. 

 

Have you checked the Tigers' payroll and/or moves the past decade?

[wsnydes]

 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

This is the key here.  They've got to generate interest heading into next season without giving away the farm.  It's not about being aggressive so much this offseason, in my view, but about being right.  Do enough to get this team trending in the right direction, and then the next offseason can be more aggressive in filling holes as this team matures.  It's that delicate balance that requires some patience and a feel for what is needed when it is needed.  Hasty decisions this coming offseason could be disastrous.  

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Have you checked the Tigers' payroll and/or moves the past decade?

The Tigers have spent and been aggressive, but I guess I would put them in a different class than the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, etc.  (And the Giants in terms of consistent success.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Wells trade is good example.  

 

But there really isn't a comparison though for giving up a 4 war Center Fielder (with 5 years of control), 1st overall pick in the most recent draft, and a top 100 pitching prospect, for a guy who at best is a #2 starter with 3 years of control left. 

Hey, they got a 4th year of control when Miller pitched so badly, they were justified in sending him to the minors!

 

It was definitely a steep price, and flipping a #1 overall pick so quickly is almost unprecedented.

[markos]

 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

Sano and Buxton are free agents after the 2021 season. Kepler after 2022. They have a couple years yet before they need to start worrying about their window closing and making panic moves.

[nicksaviking]

La Russa, Stewart and Kirk Gibson previously have been pretty loud in their bravado about being "old school". If the Twins wanted to follow AZ in that regard, they wouldn't have needed to hire a search firm. If anything, I would bet the Twins OVER-correct when it comes to the new regime and statistical analysis, it's probably the thing they've gotten hammered on the most.

 

Also, I'm pretty skeptical about La Russa's level of involvement. He retired from managing, took a year off, then took this POBO gig? That sounds an awful lot like trying to land a cushy part-time retirement job. He got the job before Beane, Epstien and Freidman re-defined the position. At the time he took the job, I viewed it as more of a figurehead position and I don't think I was alone. There have been more than one comment from Stewart and La Russa that seem like they weren't exactly on the same page. I think this is mostly if not entirely Dave Stewart's show.

[puckstopper1]

The biggest take aways for me from this article is you better hire the right people, not the right names.  Also, landing a top of the rotation ace does not solve all ills.  People have been on the Twins for being "cheap" and not going after the top pitching free agents.  Keep in mind that both Nolasco and E. Santana were each in the "top 10" of their respective Free Agent classes.  The problem is that the Twins are not drafting and developing their own quality players - especially starting pitchers.  Obviously Arizona was not either, and they are paying the price as well.

[USAFChief]

Arizona failed in 2016. Their story hasn't played out yet. Both Grienke and Miller are still alive, according to media reports.

[dxpavelka]

All AZ did was bring in "names" with no experience in their roles.  I think most MN fans are hoping, not for names or even experience in a specific role but guys who have been mentored in a different way of operating a franchise.  We brought in a "name"  when we fired Gardy.  You still need someone to bring in ball players.

 

[h2oface]

I only dislike the trade for Miller. Even if Miller would have been this year's Cy Young winner, I wouldn't have liked the trade. Pitching is just soooo fickle. Pollock looked great in the game in LA last night. Miller horrible. Batting practice. Could have been watching Twins' pitching! If the players perform, all GMs look great. Watching the Dodgers rearrange pieces all year and win..... that is a special front office team. I say grab the Anthro guy and win some games again.

[Vanimal46]

 

 Miller Hughes Milone Nolasco Pat Dean Santiago Duffey Berrios horrible. Batting practice.

FTFY.