Article: Planning To Fail

[Craig Arko]

That's most sports towns- when things go bad fans demand blood. Even more so in places like Boston, New York, Philly. But Minnesota is pretty much ho-hum about everything when things go bad- which is probably part of why when many of us get out our pitch forks, some people's Minnesota sensibilities get offended.

 

We need to build a wall around the state, and then send all the mosquitos out after you ferengi.

[Jham]

 

When you have a .377 winning percentage, you are probably making some right decisions, but also a lot more wrong ones. Negativity is criticizing a .500+ team for not making correct decisions more often than not. It is not negativity, however, to criticize a .375 team for making wrong decisions much more frequently than good decisions. As a Supreme Court justice once said, it's just calling balls and strikes.

I do think one of the biggest problems the organization has is an inability to discern right and wrong decisions.  Terry Ryan called this a "total system failure".  The more I really look, the more I see a "total pitching staff failure".  Focusing on the aspects of the team that actually need improvement gets us better faster than assuming everything's broken and worrying about the things that didn't go wrong.  Plouffe, Buxton, Park, Arcia, Vargas didn't hurt the team nearly as much Gibson or Duffey.  I mean, Nick is claiming the Twins somehow screwed Michael Tonkin out of his big chance.  He arguably shouldn't even have made the team this year.  The Twins screwed up by putting him in lower leverage situations?  He was lucky to have a job!  We're going to what, throw him in there for the 9th?  What on earth did he do in his last 3 years of promotions and demotions to earn that?  Let's focus on real problems rather than inventing things.  

[d-mac]

 

but he still managed to boost his OPS by 140 points while playing in the minors?

 

I have done neither, but I'm assuming it's easier to hit in the minors, no? He has 372 PA  between MLB and AAA. I think we should wait and see what a full, healthy year would bring with him. Just because signing him and not trading Plouffe were poor decisions I don't think we need to throw the baby out with the bathwater- Park still may end up being a good hitter. 

[Boom Boom]

There's certainly some players who are fair to criticize. That seems to miss the point of the blog, though, because the players weren't the ones who put the team together.

 

And in regards to Sano... assuming that right field is easy, and that Sano didn't take to it because he's fat and lazy... well, the Twins sure changed course on that one. They must have realized that it was a mistake, or else he'd still be clomping around out there.

[Deduno Abides]

I do think one of the biggest problems the organization has is an inability to discern right and wrong decisions.  Terry Ryan called this a "total system failure".  The more I really look, the more I see a "total pitching staff failure".  Focusing on the aspects of the team that actually need improvement gets us better faster than assuming everything's broken and worrying about the things that didn't go wrong.  Plouffe, Buxton, Park, Arcia, Vargas didn't hurt the team nearly as much Gibson or Duffey.  I mean, Nick is claiming the Twins somehow screwed Michael Tonkin out of his big chance.  He arguably shouldn't even have made the team this year.  The Twins screwed up by putting him in lower leverage situations?  He was lucky to have a job!  We're going to what, throw him in there for the 9th?  What on earth did he do in his last 3 years of promotions and demotions to earn that?  Let's focus on real problems rather than inventing things.

 

You make good points. The pitching has been bad this year and the offense has been. . .ok. When you get swept in a series while scoring 21 runs, that screams pitching problem. As you suggest, the handling of Tonkin is probably less of an issue than the fact that he is a key member of the bullpen in the first place. Tonkin had not shown much in past years. To go into a season counting on him suggests pitching planning problems. A related area is defense, which has exacerbated the pitching problems. When your three most expensive pitching free agents are extreme fly ball pitchers, you don't put giant infielders and mediocre fielders in the outfield. This is one of the largest triggers for the concern about Sano, Plouffe, Park, Arcia, etc.

 

Obviously, a .377 record leads to lot of areas for improvement, but I agree with you that bad pitching is probably cause #1. There are several subsets for the bad pitching problem, which could be a long post.

[Kwak]

 

There's certainly some players who are fair to criticize. That seems to miss the point of the blog, though, because the players weren't the ones who put the team together.

And in regards to Sano... assuming that right field is easy, and that Sano didn't take to it because he's fat and lazy... well, the Twins sure changed course on that one. They must have realized that it was a mistake, or else he'd still be clomping around out there.

Or, they decided that Kepler is the long-term solution for RF.

[Deduno Abides]

I do think one of the biggest problems the organization has is an inability to discern right and wrong decisions.

 

Responding a second time just to highlight my agreement with this statement. I'd add my concern that, after a bad decision has been made, they appear to have been unable or unwilling to recognize it or figure out how to avoid making a similar mistake in the future.

[Rosterman]

The Problems:

 

Sano in the outfield, meaning no place for Arcia and the reps you gave Quentin and Sweeney were all a waste, too. And then, bammmmm, Kepler comes on board and you plug some time with Grossman, so some things look good. But Sano is not an outfielder, got behind in his reps and third, and becomes part of the DH mix-up.

 

Park. Sometimes the Twins are pretty good at tantalizing us that they are on the cusp of keeping their own free agent, are negotiating for the best booty possible for their pending free agent, or reach out and sign the impossible to come and be the savior for the team. I still thing winning the Park thing was a surprise, and them signing him for the four years they did at what they did was an even bigger surprised. Then they knew not what to do with it all, and we end up losing Arcia, having Sano in limbo, Vargas showing he might be worth his keep and the Twins contemplating keeping Plouffe for one more season.

 

Line Up Construction. Guys are all over the place. What are the match-ups. Did they work? Why so many K's. Are they not looking at pitches. No speed on the basepaths. Somehow, we did have one part of a season of excitement as Eduardo Nunez seemed to be a one-man wrecking crew in average, getting base, stealing bases, hitting homers and doing a better-than-though job of fielding before he came back down to earth as the utility guy Molitor felt he was in San Francisco.

 

The rotation. It stunk. I though fer sure it would be better than it was. Maybe we would see 60-70 wins from the Big five +. Now we might not even see 30. One will hit 150+ innings. A disaster. An expensive disaster.

 

Thus, Pushing Players. And still we have guys wandering the halls of A+ and AA rather than pushing harder to get them on the road to the majors. In the Twins way, most of these guys won't be around until 2018 now. Go figure.

 

The bullpen. Rhyme or Reason. Overworked. Never have I seen so many pitchers used is so many games. The saving grace is that the Twins have used something like 20 guys in relief situations. 20 GUYS! Whew! Some are working a record amount of games (Pressly & Tonkin). There is not a long guy )think Swarzak) in the bunch. May was misued. Kintzler became the closer with no games to close. It seems th guys are on a rotation. No idea of matchups or situations. Who decides these things. And the future, for the second year, is still buried in the minors. So many names: Burdi, Reed, Hildenburger, Bard, Jones, Landa, Melotakis. We amazingly have seen Chargolis, who still is trying to get over his jitters. And Wimmers MAY be a good prospect, at last. And we got Pat Light, who is all over the place. The bullpen in 2017 promises to be more of the same, a patchwork of more (as someone calls Tonkin the 13th guy) end pieces than precision throwers.

 

Management! Somehow they thought they had a winner. Not sure what they could've done. Everyone in the division seemed to have done something, and the White Sox even seemed improved but fell hard from grace. I personally thought ALL the teams might've been pretty close in the long run - 5 to 10 wins separating first from last. But what did I know.

 

All I can say is that as a fan, I am excited about seeing more of the future, be they good or bad for now. I also look forward to seeing a new direction in management. Even if everything is totally torn apart and solid prospects are sent packing and money is thrown at more worthless free agents, and a big contract bombs, I will still be a Twins fan. It is, after all, a tough game, this major league baseball. Always more losers than winners. But it is a beautiful game when things happen well on the field and the teams play to a competitive balance.

[jimmer]

 

The Problems:

 

Sano in the outfield, meaning no place for Arcia and the reps you gave Quentin and Sweeney were all a waste, too. And then, bammmmm, Kepler comes on board and you plug some time with Grossman, so some things look good. But Sano is not an outfielder, got behind in his reps and third, and becomes part of the DH mix-up.

 

Park. Sometimes the Twins are pretty good at tantalizing us that they are on the cusp of keeping their own free agent, are negotiating for the best booty possible for their pending free agent, or reach out and sign the impossible to come and be the savior for the team. I still thing winning the Park thing was a surprise, and them signing him for the four years they did at what they did was an even bigger surprised. Then they knew not what to do with it all, and we end up losing Arcia, having Sano in limbo, Vargas showing he might be worth his keep and the Twins contemplating keeping Plouffe for one more season.

 

Line Up Construction. Guys are all over the place. What are the match-ups. Did they work? Why so many K's. Are they not looking at pitches. No speed on the basepaths. Somehow, we did have one part of a season of excitement as Eduardo Nunez seemed to be a one-man wrecking crew in average, getting base, stealing bases, hitting homers and doing a better-than-though job of fielding before he came back down to earth as the utility guy Molitor felt he was in San Francisco.

 

The rotation. It stunk. I though fer sure it would be better than it was. Maybe we would see 60-70 wins from the Big five +. Now we might not even see 30. One will hit 150+ innings. A disaster. An expensive disaster.

 

Thus, Pushing Players. And still we have guys wandering the halls of A+ and AA rather than pushing harder to get them on the road to the majors. In the Twins way, most of these guys won't be around until 2018 now. Go figure.

 

The bullpen. Rhyme or Reason. Overworked. Never have I seen so many pitchers used is so many games. The saving grace is that the Twins have used something like 20 guys in relief situations. 20 GUYS! Whew! Some are working a record amount of games (Pressly & Tonkin). There is not a long guy )think Swarzak) in the bunch. May was misued. Kintzler became the closer with no games to close. It seems th guys are on a rotation. No idea of matchups or situations. Who decides these things. And the future, for the second year, is still buried in the minors. So many names: Burdi, Reed, Hildenburger, Bard, Jones, Landa, Melotakis. We amazingly have seen Chargolis, who still is trying to get over his jitters. And Wimmers MAY be a good prospect, at last. And we got Pat Light, who is all over the place. The bullpen in 2017 promises to be more of the same, a patchwork of more (as someone calls Tonkin the 13th guy) end pieces than precision throwers.

 

Management! Somehow they thought they had a winner. Not sure what they could've done. Everyone in the division seemed to have done something, and the White Sox even seemed improved but fell hard from grace. I personally thought ALL the teams might've been pretty close in the long run - 5 to 10 wins separating first from last. But what did I know.

 

All I can say is that as a fan, I am excited about seeing more of the future, be they good or bad for now. I also look forward to seeing a new direction in management. Even if everything is totally torn apart and solid prospects are sent packing and money is thrown at more worthless free agents, and a big contract bombs, I will still be a Twins fan. It is, after all, a tough game, this major league baseball. Always more losers than winners. But it is a beautiful game when things happen well on the field and the teams play to a competitive balance.

One more problem: Horrific defense.

[adorduan]

 

The Danny Santana issue is one that bothers me more than anything, so I'm probably more sensitive to it than most.  But from what I've read/ heard Nick is absolutely right in that he gets a total free pass from Twins management to the local media.  

Why people are so invested in a lack of criticism of Danny Santana is beyond me. He the 25th player on the roster.  Buxton, Berrios and Sano are a thousand times more important to the team going forward. And all the hand wringing after we traded Arcia for a bag of balls, OMG, he's going to go to another team and flourish blah, blah, blah... he's on his 3rd team in 10 days. 

[old nurse]

 

It's these kind of negative sweeping generalizations that people are complaining about. Opinionated without facts.
Among 1st baseman with 110 games or more this season Joe is
8th in ops
2nd in OBP
3rd in avg
2nd in fld %

Kepler has
6 errors good for 8th on the team out of 9 position players. Hmmmm

Santana is worth more than we are paying him.
As they say a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally =Kintzler

And Dozier is an all star streaky second baseman. We have no idea what the new FO will decide to do with him.

Gotta be productive with the criticism.

Silly me to not have gone further over the top in poking a little fun at Ashbury John's lighthearted appearing post.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why people are so invested in a lack of criticism of Danny Santana is beyond me. He the 25th player on the roster. Buxton, Berrios and Sano are a thousand times more important to the team going forward. And all the hand wringing after we traded Arcia for a bag of balls, OMG, he's going to go to another team and flourish blah, blah, blah... he's on his 3rd team in 10 days.

What do you mean by "25th player"?

When he's healthy, Santana plays most days. He's not some guy sitting on the end of the bench in case someone gets hurt.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I do think one of the biggest problems the organization has is an inability to discern right and wrong decisions.  Terry Ryan called this a "total system failure".  The more I really look, the more I see a "total pitching staff failure".  Focusing on the aspects of the team that actually need improvement gets us better faster than assuming everything's broken and worrying about the things that didn't go wrong.  Plouffe, Buxton, Park, Arcia, Vargas didn't hurt the team nearly as much Gibson or Duffey.  I mean, Nick is claiming the Twins somehow screwed Michael Tonkin out of his big chance.  He arguably shouldn't even have made the team this year.  The Twins screwed up by putting him in lower leverage situations?  He was lucky to have a job!  We're going to what, throw him in there for the 9th?  What on earth did he do in his last 3 years of promotions and demotions to earn that?  Let's focus on real problems rather than inventing things.  

 

It's not that Tonkin earned some more prominent role, it's that you thrust him into a role he had never done, that didn't suit his skills, and expected him to succeed at it.

 

You know, like we did with CF the last 6 years.  And Sano.  And the (what seems like) dozens of infielders we've thrown in the outfield.  Oh, and Trevor May.  Mayhap I'm missing some more?

 

This team seems to think the failures are the result of something other than their own decision making.  They have continued to play guys in ways that don't suit their strengths and marveled that things fell apart.

[adorduan]

 

What do you mean by "25th player"?
When he's healthy, Santana plays most days. He's not some guy sitting on the end of the bench in case someone gets hurt.

He's had 233 total at bats, 65 since the all star break.. 40% of his at bats came in May.  that's hardly "most" days.

[Jham]

 

It's not that Tonkin earned some more prominent role, it's that you thrust him into a role he had never done, that didn't suit his skills, and expected him to succeed at it.

 

You know, like we did with CF the last 6 years.  And Sano.  And the (what seems like) dozens of infielders we've thrown in the outfield.  Oh, and Trevor May.  Mayhap I'm missing some more?

 

This team seems to think the failures are the result of something other than their own decision making.  They have continued to play guys in ways that don't suit their strengths and marveled that things fell apart.

See, you have some valid points there, but you undermine them by making some downright puzzling corollaries.  Tonkin has burned through all of his option years, and has been rostered the whole year, but somehow he wasn't given a chance to succeed....  

[Physics Guy]

It's not that Tonkin earned some more prominent role, it's that you thrust him into a role he had never done, that didn't suit his skills, and expected him to succeed at it.

 

You know, like we did with CF the last 6 years.  And Sano.  And the (what seems like) dozens of infielders we've thrown in the outfield.  Oh, and Trevor May.  Mayhap I'm missing some more?

 

This team seems to think the failures are the result of something other than their own decision making.  They have continued to play guys in ways that don't suit their strengths and marveled that things fell apart.

I know it probably feels like 6 years, but Span was the CF just four seasons ago.

[Mr. Brooks]

He's had 233 total at bats, 65 since the all star break.. 40% of his at bats came in May. that's hardly "most" days.

I clearly said "when healthy".

He played in 40 of 67 games since coming off the DL on 6/17. That fits the description of most games.

 

Before that injury, he played in all 31 consecutive games, after coming off the DL on 4/25.

 

Before that injury he had played in 4 of the first 5 games.

 

When he's been on the roster, he's played in 75 of 103 games.

[alarp33]

Why people are so invested in a lack of criticism of Danny Santana is beyond me. He the 25th player on the roster.  Buxton, Berrios and Sano are a thousand times more important to the team going forward. And all the hand wringing after we traded Arcia for a bag of balls, OMG, he's going to go to another team and flourish blah, blah, blah... he's on his 3rd team in 10 days.

 

You can call him whatever you want. 25th man doesn't have a definition. But he plays most days he's been on the active roster, this is his 3rd DL stint and he's played in 75 games

[TheLeviathan]

 

See, you have some valid points there, but you undermine them by making some downright puzzling corollaries.  Tonkin has burned through all of his option years, and has been rostered the whole year, but somehow he wasn't given a chance to succeed....  

 

Which puzzling corollaries would those be?

 

He was made the long man and kept there regardless of performance in that role or past success in various roles.  (Granted, in the minors, but that's what he had been groomed to do for many years)  Maybe he would've been terrible in more of a one inning role....but how the hell are we going to know when we burned him out throwing more pitches than he was used to in mop up duty?

Edited August 30, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[Jham]

 

Which puzzling corollaries would those be?

 

He was made the long man and kept there regardless of performance in that role or past success in various roles.  (Granted, in the minors, but that's what he had been groomed to do for many years)  Maybe he would've been terrible in more of a one inning role....but how the hell are we going to know when we burned him out throwing more pitches than he was used to in mop up duty?

1) Do you even really believe that?  

2) For a third time, my problem with the article is the stating of IMO ridiculous or at least arguable opinions as facts.  

3) You have to pitch at least 1 inning to pitch multiple innings.  Tonkin has had 3+ years to prove he's anything more than Jason Kubel's brother-in-law.  He hasn't succeeded in any role.  

[old nurse]

 

It's not that Tonkin earned some more prominent role, it's that you thrust him into a role he had never done, that didn't suit his skills, and expected him to succeed at it.

 

You know, like we did with CF the last 6 years.  And Sano.  And the (what seems like) dozens of infielders we've thrown in the outfield.  Oh, and Trevor May.  Mayhap I'm missing some more?

 

This team seems to think the failures are the result of something other than their own decision making.  They have continued to play guys in ways that don't suit their strengths and marveled that things fell apart.

Cuddy, Larry Chisenhal, Alex Gorden, and Ian Desmond are many of the former infielders who say hello from the outfield.  Moving infielders to the outfield was not a TR invention.

 

Tonkin pitched multiple innings in games last year , and in other years. in the minors. It is not like it is not something he hasn't done before.

[jokin]

 

It's these kind of negative sweeping generalizations that people are complaining about. Opinionated without facts.
Among 1st baseman with 110 games or more this season Joe is
8th in ops
2nd in OBP
3rd in avg
2nd in fld %

 

 

Another way to look at Mauer's year among 1B (and more meaningful):

 

wRC+- 109 (ranked 19th)

wOBA- .336 (ranked 20th)

UZR/150- 2.0 (ranked 8th)

 

fWAR- 1.5 (ranked 14th)

 

Pretty mediocre #s in a net down season for all MLB 1st baseman.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's had 233 total at bats, 65 since the all star break.. 40% of his at bats came in May. that's hardly "most" days.

The other day I calculated it, when Santana had been on the active roster this season, he was playing at a 409 PA full season pace.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Cuddy, Larry Chisenhal, Alex Gorden, and Ian Desmond are many of the former infielders who say hello from the outfield.  Moving infielders to the outfield was not a TR invention.

 

Tonkin pitched multiple innings in games last year , and in other years. in the minors. It is not like it is not something he hasn't done before.

 

Nick made the argument about pitch total.  He's not wrong.

 

And your list is a good way of showing how the exceptions prove the rule.  Not to mention your point does nothing to explain away how bad the Twins attempts have been for the last few years.

Edited August 30, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[TheLeviathan]

 

1) Do you even really believe that?  

2) For a third time, my problem with the article is the stating of IMO ridiculous or at least arguable opinions as facts.  

3) You have to pitch at least 1 inning to pitch multiple innings.  Tonkin has had 3+ years to prove he's anything more than Jason Kubel's brother-in-law.  He hasn't succeeded in any role.  

 

Believe what exactly?  

 

If you want to plant your flag in the "Dammit, Tonkin is just plain bad"...fine.  Care to explain the other, much bigger bone-headed decisions?

[Comrade Bork]

 

Another way to look at Mauer's year among 1B (and more meaningful):

 

wRC+- 109 (ranked 19th)

wOBA- .336 (ranked 20th)

UZR/150- 2.0 (ranked 8th)

 

fWAR- 1.5 (ranked 14th)

 

Pretty mediocre #s in a net down season for all MLB 1st baseman.

why cant stats just be easy  

[Mike Sixel]

So, if you criticize the twins, in an awful season, you must also post positive things, or your statements are bad? Does the opposite apply? If you say good things are you also required to say bad things? This entire thread is filled with ad hominen attacks. Pretty pathetic. You want good news posted? Post it.

Edited August 30, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[jokin]

 

why cant stats just be easy  

 

Heh. Got that right.

 

MLB 1B averages: wOBA- .333 wRC+- 107

Mauer's averages: wOBA- .336 wRC+- 109

 

Sooo, Mauer is slightly better than average

[jokin]

 

 

So, if you criticize the twins, in an awful season, you must also post positive things, or your statements are bad? Does the opposite apply? If you say good things are you also required to say bad things? This entire thread is filled with ad hominen attacks. Pretty pathetic. You want good news posted? Post it.

 

The only good news that immediately comes to mind is that the club has indicated that they are finally ready to enter the 21st Century and do what many of us have been asking for for most of this century (and what most other clubs have recognized is critical to on-field success in the ever-complexifying game of baseball) - ie- going outside of the insular Twins culture and hiring a President of Baseball Operations who presumably in turn will hire a hungry, youngish and degreed with a highly mathematically/systems-oriented pedigree as the new GM.

 

Oh, and the other good news?

 

Only 31 games left for the Twins faithful to be forced to endure.

[jokin]

 

 

The only good news that immediately comes to mind is that the club has indicated that they are finally ready to enter the 21st Century and do what many of us have been asking for for most of this century (and what most other clubs have recognized is critical to on-field success in the ever-complexifying game of baseball) - ie- going outside of the insular Twins culture and hiring a President of Baseball Operations who presumably in turn will hire a hungry, youngish and degreed with a highly mathematically/systems-oriented pedigree as the new GM.

 

Oh, and the other good news?

 

Only 31 games left for the Twins faithful to be forced to endure.

 

More "good news". With the current 10 game losing streak, the Twins have now climbed down to within one game of the Braves in the race to the bottom and the resultant grand prize of the #1 overall 2017 draft pick.... so there's that to shoot for, as well.

 

In that regard, I hope the Twins haven't failed to plan for a plan to fail over the last 31 games.

Edited August 30, 2016 by jokin