Article: Planning To Fail

[Nick Nelson]

There's a problem with the Twins' plan. The problem is that, by all appearances, they don't really have one.

 

What else are we supposed to make of the ongoing series of inexplicable decisions that have propelled the club toward another last-place finish?All too often, poor outcomes that have struck the Twins this year can be traced back to questionable judgment. Let's take a look at five particularly troublesome examples:

 

1. The handling of Miguel Sano.

 

Sano has endured ups and downs, as most 23-year-olds do. That should be factored into the plan. Yet, the team's outward-facing actions regarding the slugger – from publicly questioning his work ethic to needless benchings and drops in the lineup – have projected disappointment and frustration.

 

The kid does have an ego, which often comes with the territory of legendary talent. But I don't think it's a particularly harmful or provocative one, and to imply that he's not focused on being great is flatly absurd.

 

Sano's defensive miscues are understandable with his lack of reps at the position in recent years, thanks to all the time spent at DH and right field. His alleged unwillingness to put in extra side work might be related to elbow pain that has relegated him to DH lately.

 

Except, when an MRI on the elbow came up negative, he returned to third in his first game back, so the injury must not have been that bad? Right? Who knows.

 

If there has been any real plan in place regarding Sano, at any point this year, it's hard to tell.

 

2. Signing Byung Ho Park

 

The meandering trajectory of Sano was put into place by the signing of Byung Ho Park during the offseason. That moved seemed a bit perplexing at the time, and now with the benefit of hindsight it looks absolutely flabbergasting.

 

Because they were compelled to outbid the competition and bring Park aboard while keeping Trevor Plouffe on, the Twins left Sano in the lurch. The idea of sending him to the outfield unsurprisingly didn't take, nor did Park's transition to the major leagues. Outside of the power, the KBO star's offensive dominance did not carry over. Park batted .191 with the Twins and .224 in Triple-A before having his season ended by wrist surgery last week.

 

Meanwhile, Kenny Vargas – whom the Twins implicitly gave up on by signing Park – is proving to be worthy of a longer look. Unfortunately, with Joe Mauer entrenched at first and Sano in positional limbo, there's no room for the big switch-hitter. He was optioned to the minors despite a .955 OPS.

 

So, the Twins will head into next year with Mauer at first, Sano lacking a defensive home, Vargas out of options, and Park making millions to play first base in Triple-A.

 

3. Michael Tonkin's odd role assignment.

 

After first reaching the Triple-A level in 2013, Tonkin cemented his standing as one of the organization's top relief prospects by flat-out burying hitters there. In 118 innings with Rochester spread over three seasons, the lanky fireballer put up a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 128-to-25 K/BB ratio.

 

He did so while throwing in short bursts. Tonkin was typically asked to get three outs or less, working in a setup or closer role. Of his 102 appearances at Triple-A, he threw 30-plus pitches in only 10. As a high-effort hurler who brings it in the mid-90s consistently, that approach made sense.

 

So what did the Twins do this year? They decided to turn him into a long reliever, for some reason. Despite his superior performance in the minors, and solid results in past MLB chances, the right-hander has been largely used as a spare part and workload sponge in the bullpen. He has thrown 30-plus pitches in 11 of his 56 appearances, even pushing to 40 a couple of times and 50 once.

 

Should we be surprised that his performance is deteriorating here as we head into the latter part of the season? Tonkin has a 9.75 ERA in August, with a 1.060 OPS allowed. It sure looks like he is worn down. As a result, he's turned from an encouraging relief story to a suspect fringe piece in a bullpen picture that is filled with them.

 

Tonkin is another in a long line of players who simply wasn't put in a position to succeed by this club.

 

4. Trevor May's aimless path.

 

In 2014, May emerged as an impact MLB-ready starting prospect with his brilliant efforts in Triple-A. Last year, he began fulfilling his promise as a starter before the Twins shifted him to the bullpen. They elected to send him back there this spring.

 

The line of thinking made sense only under these conditions: the Twins were competitive enough to require a shutdown late-inning arm, and the rotation was strong enough not to require his upside as a starting pitcher. Neither of those things have been true. That became apparent very early, but the Twins have shown no urgency to stray from their course.

 

May's body has not reacted well to the overhaul in a routine that had been set over many years in an exclusive starting role. He has spent two lengthy periods on the disabled list, with Paul Molitor only hinting that he'll revisit May's usage during the offseason. Next year the right-hander will probably be reacclimating to a different regimen, once again.

 

Seems like a logical way to treat one of the best arms on an atrocious pitching staff.

 

5. Top prospect turmoil

 

Where did the Twins go wrong with Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios? I can't purport to know. I don't think any of us can. But clearly, nothing is clicking for the club's two brightest young talents. While both have mastered the minors, the organization has been unable to help facilitate the next step.

 

Buxton is the more disturbing case; he has failed to make any meaningful progress through 100 MLB games, spread across four different opportunities. Berrios is greener still, with only nine big-league starts under his belt, but none have even approximated excellence.

 

When run prevention is far-and-away your biggest issue, the importance of ushering in your best pitching prospect and a ballhawk center fielder who catches everything in his zip code cannot be overstated.

 

Given what we've seen from the team so far – bewildered remarks, hasty demotions, coaching overload – it's tough to have faith in things getting figured out. At least, with this current group.

 

These are but five notable instances of poor planning that stand out among many. I haven't even touched on the curious decisions surrounding players like Jorge Polanco, Tyler Duffey and Eduardo Escobar, nor the complete lack of vision at the catcher position.

 

There's an old saying that goes, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail."

 

That phrase seems to summarize this abject failure of a Twins season pretty well.

 

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[Steve Lein]

I feel like this is being generous to the Twins, even as a scathing report on what has occurred this year. 

 

[Brandon]

Wah Wah Wah. When the Twins signed Park they were surprised. Tonkin was the 13th man on a 12 man staff. He made it to 12th man cause he is out of options. Sano should have been able to handle OF for a few years. He is in his early 20s. The re-emergence of Vargas creates a nice problem. As far as the Buxton and Barrios are concerned they are 22 years old. Let's give them 2 years to fully develop before we get so upset they weren't instant Allstars.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I still think Park was  a good idea, and given that it appears that he was injured for this season, I think there's reason to be optimistic.  The real issue is having Park/Mauer/Vargas next season for 2 spots. I think Mauer would be wise to be willing to occasionally play some OF. 

[jimmer]

Park was a bad idea for multiple reasons.  Logjam at the spots he plays, Sano is moved to RF in part because of him joining the team, and of course his main problem: tons of strikeouts.  It was his problem in Korea, his problem in the majors, and his problem in AAA.  He managed to produce in spite of them in AAA and Korea (in other words, inferior talent).but against the best competition (MLB), he couldn't.  It was an injury stopping him in the majors but he managed an OPS 140 points higher in AAA?

 

Bad, bad call.  And the dominoes fell.

[troyhobbs]

Also not trading Plouffe. TR was determined to "add bats" while assembling the worst defense behind the worst pitching staff in baseball. So now you have a slightly above avg lineup and that looks like the bad news bears when they take the field. What's the over under on 90+ losses in '17?

[Han Joelo]

I'm not going to debate whether I originally agreed with these original moves anymore.  Bad planning, bad luck, whatever.  The jury is in.

 

I normally scoff when a fan site's users say stuff like this, but "READ This Twins GM candidates!"

[Comrade Bork]

How much of this can be traced 6 years back when the core of the team was obviously in turnover and we didn't commit to even a partial rebuild. 1 90 loss season, shame on you, 3+, shame on Terry. Everything has been completely reactionary. Bandaids only keep the boat from sinking so long and it started with the boat already sunk at the dock in '10.

[Platoon]

Terry Ryan seemed for his whole career to be a pitching and defense oriented GM. Or was he really? Was it actually Kelly and Gardy? While I don't know the answer to that, one thing is obvious. For some inexplicable reason the team started to head into the offense first side of the game. Almost all decisions were made on who had the best 'perceived' bat. Hitting far outweighed the totality of your total game, and generally was the only thing that sent you to the bench. While the pitching and defense are indeed putrid, going offense first had a major impact on both. The quickest example is the Park and Plouffe decision should have been turned into pitchers. Or if you insisted on keeping them, someone else has to go, like Vargas. You just cannot keep piling them up like cordwood!

[Comrade Bork]

It the reactionary move making that doesnt seem to follow any kind of development or contingency plan that has been the Twins biggest issue imo.

[Jeff A]

I agree with the overall premise of this article.  There can be quibbling over the merits of individual moves, but the individual moves aren't the issue.  The issue is that when you look at the totality of the moves, there's no evidence that the Twins have an overall plan for how they intend to build a winning team.  This has been true for years now, really.  All we can do now is wait and see if the new GM and/or director of baseball operations will change that.

[wsnydes]

I'm about as ranted out about this topic as can be.  I'm typically a guy that is very patient with coaches and GM decisions and rarely actually calls for a guys head.  But after sitting through 6 years of same old, same old putrid baseball without any real plan to get better, my patience is gone.  For five years, instead of admitting mistakes and working to improve the team, signings largely felt as a band-aid meant to keep the team afloat, treading water if you will.  Then we get last season, an unexpected winning season where the team overachieved.  Instead of trying to improve upon that and fill obvious holes, the signings tried to fill holes that didn't exist.  The result of this is a team that could no longer even tread water effectively, so now they're drowning.  

 

Even with TR gone, the franchise refuses to admit that they need to play for the future instead of a meaningless game in August.  Decisions, call ups, and line construction don't reflect a team that is trying to build for the future.  Prospects have to earn playing time as if this team is about to win 90 games instead of lose them.  Guys like Logan Shafer and Danny Santana roam the outfield instead of giving a shot to the likes of Walker or Palka.  Vargas and his .955 OPS get demoted to the minors because this team is apparently so stacked.  All of these things have left me without patience and no confidence in this teams front office or coaching staff.  A plan, even if it's a bad one, is still a plan.  This franchise can't even claim that.

Edited August 29, 2016 by wsnydes

[TheBoofIsLoose]

Of those, Sano might be the most troubling. The other young players have struggled, but it could turn around or it might not, prospects aren't guaranteed to pan out. Sano has proven to be a valuable asset with an impressive hitting prowess, but the Twins seem determined to undermine him every step of the way. Come up in the system practicing at 3rd? Now you're an outfielder. In the midst of a slump? Well get ready to be criticized publicly. We have arguably the best hitter we've had in a long time and because of some baffling internal reasons that's not good enough.

[alarp33]

 

4. Trevor May's aimless path.

In 2014, May emerged as an impact MLB-ready starting prospect with his brilliant efforts in Triple-A. Last year, he began fulfilling his promise as a starter before the Twins shifted him to the bullpen. They elected to send him back there this spring.

The line of thinking made sense only under these conditions: the Twins were competitive enough to require a shutdown late-inning arm, and the rotation was strong enough not to require his upside as a starting pitcher. Neither of those things have been true. That became apparent very early, but the Twins have shown no urgency to stray from their course.

May's body has not reacted well to the overhaul in a routine that had been set over many years in an exclusive starting role. He has spent two lengthy periods on the disabled list, with Paul Molitor only hinting that he'll revisit May's usage during the offseason. Next year the right-hander will probably be reacclimating to a different regimen, once again.

Seems like a logical way to treat one of the best arms on an atrocious pitching staff.
 

 

Hmmm - you seemed to argue pretty hard back a few months ago that anyone who said May should be in the rotation was flat out wrong. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hmmm - you seemed to argue pretty hard back a few months ago that anyone who said May should be in the rotation was flat out wrong. 

That wasn't Nick's opinion by late June:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23013-article-setting-up-for-the-second-half/

 

Maybe it still was in May:

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/trevor-may-is-leading-an-evolving-bullpen-r4673

[Squirrel]

Hmmm - you seemed to argue pretty hard back a few months ago that anyone who said May should be in the rotation was flat out wrong.

 

Is there a specific point you are making here? Or perhaps you want to just ask Nick why the change?

[Winston Smith]

At this point I think we need to wait until the new hires have a chance to work some of this out. The fire the manager threads every day are kind of silly at this point.

 

Let the new people get started and do some house cleaning and don't expect it to happen over night.

 

I'm willing to give the new people at least 2-3 days before complaining about time to fire them!

 

Now if Antony is still the GM next year and the front office and coaching staffs through out the system are mostly the same then it's time for real anger.

[alarp33]

 

Is there a specific point you are making here? Or perhaps you want to just ask Nick why the change?

 

Correct - I could have phrased that as a question.  Obviously people are allowed to change their mind, I just was recalling Nick as the one most firmly in the "you are wrong if you think May should be a starter" camp, so it's interesting that's one of the "planning failures"

[Joe A. Preusser]

No offense to Nick intended, but IMHO it's sh*t like this article that have made this site almost unreadable. The fact that I still come here so often speaks to what a strong fan of the Twins I am, and certainly not to the tone and quality of the content bring posted.

 

It has pretty much been reduced to the following:

 

Every move made by the Twins is sh*t. I know better than seasoned professionals what is right for this team. MY priorities are what matter, and if the team's don't align with them then they are wrong.

 

If a player isn't performing like an All-Star RIGHT NOW, he's crap and not worth a roster spot. Anyone under the age of 25 is ok, anyone older is crap. If an All-Star player like Dozier or Mauer go through a stretch of rough play for a period of weeks, he's crap, cooked, worthless.

 

Like all baseball video games have shown, a player performs at the same level all the time. And if his rating dips below All-Star, you trade him for a prospect that will always turn into a new All-Star, because that's how player development actually works.

 

 

Now imagine, a positive upbeat fan trying to follow his favorite team and having to wade through a sea of this sh*t every day.

And before anyone tells me that I'm out of touch with reality let me say that to a large extent, reality conforms to your attitude and mind-set. Reality is what you make it, or as ObiWan said, many of the truths we cling to depend on your point of view. I don't know, maybe there's just a hell of a lot of bitter, miserable, depressed people in Minnesota and on this site.

 

[old nurse]

During their run the only defense first players that stuck as starters were middle infielders. Even those would be moved on from if their bats did not develop. Maybe what is missing is the extra work to get better. Maybe they do not have the talent to get better.

[alarp33]

 

And before anyone tells me that I'm out of touch with reality let me say that to a large extent, reality conforms to your attitude and mind-set. Reality is what you make it, or as ObiWan said, many of the truths we cling to depend on your point of view. I don't know, maybe there's just a hell of a lot of bitter, miserable, depressed people in Minnesota and on this site.

 

Reality is actually a 49-81 record. 

[jimmer]

Well, one of the realities is this: In four of the last five full seasons the Twins have lost at least 92 games. After a season off from that futility (at least record-wise), we are now looking at a very real possibility of finishing with triple digits losses.

 

Is there any way my attitude and mind set will change that?

Edited August 29, 2016 by jimmer

[Winston Smith]

 

No offense to Nick intended, but IMHO it's sh*t like this article that have made this site almost unreadable. The fact that I still come here so often speaks to what a strong fan of the Twins I am, and certainly not to the tone and quality of the content bring posted. It has pretty much been reduced to the following: Every move made by the Twins is sh*t. I know better than seasoned professionals what is right for this team. MY priorities are what matter, and if the team's don't align with them then they are wrong. If a player isn't performing like an All-Star RIGHT NOW, he's crap and not worth a roster spot. Anyone under the age of 25 is ok, anyone older is crap. If an All-Star player like Dozier or Mauer go through a stretch of rough play for a period of weeks, he's crap, cooked, worthless. Like all baseball video games have shown, a player performs at the same level all the time. And if his rating dips below All-Star, you trade him for a prospect that will always turn into a new All-Star, because that's how player development actually works. Now imagine, a positive upbeat fan trying to follow his favorite team and having to wade through a sea of this sh*t every day. And before anyone tells me that I'm out of touch with reality let me say that to a large extent, reality conforms to your attitude and mind-set. Reality is what you make it, or as ObiWan said, many of the truths we cling to depend on your point of view. I don't know, maybe there's just a hell of a lot of bitter, miserable, depressed people in Minnesota and on this site.

But how do you really feel?

[Joe A. Preusser]

It will change how you feel about it. How you discuss it. How you approach topics and ideas. And lastly how much you enjoy it.

[Joe A. Preusser]

But how do you really feel?

That's been building for a long while, possibly years. And believe me, I held back.

[howieramone2]

 

No offense to Nick intended, but IMHO it's sh*t like this article that have made this site almost unreadable. The fact that I still come here so often speaks to what a strong fan of the Twins I am, and certainly not to the tone and quality of the content bring posted. It has pretty much been reduced to the following: Every move made by the Twins is sh*t. I know better than seasoned professionals what is right for this team. MY priorities are what matter, and if the team's don't align with them then they are wrong. If a player isn't performing like an All-Star RIGHT NOW, he's crap and not worth a roster spot. Anyone under the age of 25 is ok, anyone older is crap. If an All-Star player like Dozier or Mauer go through a stretch of rough play for a period of weeks, he's crap, cooked, worthless. Like all baseball video games have shown, a player performs at the same level all the time. And if his rating dips below All-Star, you trade him for a prospect that will always turn into a new All-Star, because that's how player development actually works. Now imagine, a positive upbeat fan trying to follow his favorite team and having to wade through a sea of this sh*t every day. And before anyone tells me that I'm out of touch with reality let me say that to a large extent, reality conforms to your attitude and mind-set. Reality is what you make it, or as ObiWan said, many of the truths we cling to depend on your point of view. I don't know, maybe there's just a hell of a lot of bitter, miserable, depressed people in Minnesota and on this site.

Bingo!

[Nick Nelson]

 

Correct - I could have phrased that as a question.  Obviously people are allowed to change their mind, I just was recalling Nick as the one most firmly in the "you are wrong if you think May should be a starter" camp, so it's interesting that's one of the "planning failures"

I think that's a pretty harsh way to summarize my stance. My point was more, "If you want May to be a starter, he still ultimately can be, but there are very valid reasons for having him in the bullpen."

 

As I mentioned in this piece, those reasons (rotation depth, May's value in a contending bullpen) were washed away pretty early, and the addition of the injuries should have made reversing the decision a no-brainer. Alas... 

[jimmer]

I like to approach topics and ideas from a realistic point of view.  Like to face it head on.  Let's me enjoy the good baseball times even more when they arrive.

Edited August 29, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

I think that's a pretty harsh way to summarize my stance. My point was more, "If you want May to be a starter, he still ultimately can be, but there are very valid reasons for having him in the bullpen."

 

As I mentioned in this piece, those reasons (rotation depth, May's value in a contending bullpen) were washed away pretty early, and the addition of the injuries should have made reversing the decision a no-brainer. Alas... 

 

Fair enough.  I'm sure even plenty of the "May to the rotation" people thought the rotation depth was a little better than  Santiago, Albers, and Dean starting a series in late August... 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Putting all those decisions in a list triggered my gag reflex. Thanks, Nick.