Article: Examining Pre-Arbitration Players

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We’ve examined the potential 40-man additions and we’ve looked at the arbitration-eligible players.

 

Today, we’re going to take a look at the 26 players who have not yet reached arbitration. To be removed from the roster, these players are typically sent through outright waivers.40-MAN SITUATION

 

The Twins have 38 players on their 40-man roster currently. They will need to reinstate both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Kurt Suzuki will be a free agent and I suggested the Twins non-tender Trevor Plouffe (if he isn’t traded) and Tommy Milone. That leaves three spots.

 

A YEAR FROM ARBITRATION

 

Danny Santana, Util.; Robbie Grossman, OF; Trevor May, P; Michael Tonkin, RP. None of these players are going to go into the winter in jeopardy of losing their roster spots. You could argue Santana could be, but I’d be surprised to see him not make it to spring training.

 

ONE-PLUS

 

Eddie Rosario, OF; Miguel Sano, 3B; Juan Centeno, C; Kennys Vargas, 1B; Tyler Duffey, SP; Byron Buxton, CF; John Ryan Murphy, C. Vargas is in the process of doing enough to save his winter roster spot. (Has he done enough to push Byungho Park from the 40-man? I don’t think so.) The other names that pop out are Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy. 40-man spots are valuable; catchers are valuable. When Suzuki leaves via trade or free agency, that leaves only Centeno and Murphy on the 40-man. Can you risk exposing them to waivers? Centeno would clear (and I’d take that risk). Murphy has been atrocious, but he had some success in New York and has some name recognition. I’d keep him around.

 

LESS THAN ONE YEAR OF SERVICE

 

Buddy Boshers, LRP; Ryan O'Rourke, LRP; Max Kepler, OF; Taylor Rogers, LP; Jorge Polanco, INF; Pat Dean, LSP; Jose Berrios, SP; J.T. Chargois, RP; Andrew Albers, LP; Pat Light, RP. O’Rourke and Albers have already cleared waivers once and they should again. Pat Dean, a surprise addition last year, hasn’t proven that he deserves to stay on the roster and would likely clear waivers as well. Boshers strikes me as the next most-expendable player in the organization, but he’s left-handed, gets some swings-and-misses and is super cheap, so unless I need his spot, he’s staying on the roster.

 

SERVICE-LESS

Yorman Landa, RP; Mason Melotakis, LRP; Randy Rosario, LP; Adam Brett Walker, OF; Adalberto Mejia, LSP. Unless a guy really backs up in the minor-leagues after being added to the 40-man, they’re not typically in danger of being removed. I don’t see any of these guys being sent through waivers.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Coming in with three spots, we’ve made room for four more (Albers, Centeno, Dean, O’Rourke) to give enough room to add all six of my suggested players from last month: Daniel Palka and Zach Granite (OF), Engelb Vielma (SS), Mitch Garver © and Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero (P). There would still be one more spot going into free agency and/or the Rule 5 draft.

 

How would you handle the 26 pre-arb players?

 

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[jud6312]

I'm on board with all of your moves and I'd add Santana to it and I'd roll the dice on Boshers. Yeah, he's a lefty, but he's not someone I'd lose sleep over if he didn't clear waivers.

[pierre75275]

I dont think Centeno clears. I think somebody picks him up and tries to sneak him through.

[pierre75275]

I dont think Centeno clears. I think somebody picks him up and tries to sneak him through.

[SarasotaBill]

I would protect Zach Jones.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I dont think Centeno clears. I think somebody picks him up and tries to sneak him through.

 

I think that would be just fine... 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Twins can add turner if needed, so I think Centeno gets the DFA this offseason. I'd add Boshers to the list as well.  I have to think they want more than one spot for Rule V/FA.  Not 100% sure we protect Vielma. All glove no hit, those guys are pretty easy to find and I don't think many teams have room for a purely defensive MI that they can stash on the roster for a year.

[Vanimal46]

The players I wouldn't lose any sleep over if they were lost via waivers: 

- Centeno, D Santana, Boshers, O'Rourke, Dean, Albers. 

If there are 40 man concerns over the offseason, Landa and Rosario could be removed as well. 

[beckmt]

I would also roll the dice on Boshers. I also would try and deal other Twins starting players(Dozier,Grossman, Santigo) for 3. Zach Jones suggested above would be an interesting add.  Some also would suggest protecting Wheeler(not me). 

Twins will need roster and payroll flexability for the 2017 - 2018 offseason to be able to land a front line starter. They will also need to give tryouts to some of the closer starters(Gonsalves) comes to mind.  Would either trade Duffey or move to bullpen to give rotation spots to up and coming pitchers before 2018. Problem is that decisions have to be made and Twins seem to not have a clear view of what prospects can offer because of limited major league time before decisions have to be made. 

[Vanimal46]

It also would not surprise me if they attempted to sell Vargas to an overseas team again. It doesn't appear to be a priority trying to give him consistent playing time. 

Edited August 19, 2016 by Vanimal46

[Mike Sixel]

Easy decisions:

O'Rourke

Dean

Albers

Boshers

 

Slightly harder to cut:

Santiago (I mean, sure, try to trade him first....)

Centeno (bad defense)

 

Harder to cut/trade, but I'd still do it:

Grossman (he makes Delmon look graceful)

Danny Santana (he does everything, mostly very badly)

 

[nater79a]

Agree with others on risking Boshers. But with his spot, the 7th guy I would grab is Aaron Slegers. I'm probably in the minority on that but I think he has a chance to be solid.

[nater79a]

The other scenario we need to account for is if guys are added to the 40-man for September callups. Names like DJ Baxendale, Alex Wimmers and James Beresford. Beresford could be outrighted regardless at the end of the season, I suppose. But what happens if Wimmers and/or Baxendale really impresses out of the pen and the Twins want to get a second look in spring training? Would make things even tighter with the roster.

[Doomtints]

Sensible moves.

[alarp33]

Boshers should absolutely be gone.  

 

Santana should be gone as well.  Planning on going into 2017 with him on the roster (no options) seems like setting the bar extremely low.  If there's doubts to Buxton's readiness come April, they can do a lot better than Santana. 

[Han Joelo]

 

It also would not surprise me if they attempted to sell Vargas to an overseas team again. It doesn't appear to be a priority trying to give him consistent playing time. 

I would.  I wish he was playing more, and was frustrated he sat after hitting two homeruns the other day.  But, I think Molitor is attempting to juggle a lot of pieces as best as he can.

 

At any rate, if I was Vargas, I would be filing a grievance or doing something in order to not play overseas at this point.  He may not have any huge trade value, but he could play everyday for SOMEBODY.  Or at least get a chance to.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I dont think Centeno clears. I think somebody picks him up and tries to sneak him through.

Ceteno cleared last winter, Milwaukee tried to outright him off their roster, but he elected free agency instead.

 

He's had a nice small sample run as the backup, but looking at his history, I think this is a guy you don't think much about losing on waivers.  If you do lose him, or he clears but decides to sign elsewhere, there is usually another guy like Eric Fryer in the same boat that you can pick up on a minor league deal instead.

[d-mac]

As far as players I'd non-tender: Santiago, Plouffe, and Milone. 

 

Pre-arb players I'd dump: Albers, Dean, O'Rourke, Landa (He's a 22 year old reliever in High-A with a sub 2 K:BB ratio.)

 

Keep: Centeno (we need the depth and he's proven to be a decent ML back-up), DSan (He's not valuable, but I don't see any reason to dump him until we need the roster spot), and Randy Rosario (I'd give him one more year to see how he comes back from TJ, but I'm not super high on him- K:BB ratios are not inspiring). 

 

Keep in mind that we won't need 40-man spots for Hughes or Perkins until they are ready to come off the 60-DL. Which might not be until next spring. So that's 10 open spots, with DSan and Randy Rosario pretty easy decisions to remove if needed. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It also would not surprise me if they attempted to sell Vargas to an overseas team again. It doesn't appear to be a priority trying to give him consistent playing time. 

 

Fortunately for Vargas, he is out of options next spring.  The Twins have very little leverage to try to sell him overseas against his wishes.  All of their other recent sales or attempted sales had a AAA optional assigment looming above them -- Albers, Kris Johnson, Colabello, and Vargas last winter.  Vargas should get some kind of MLB opportunity/paycheck next spring, if not here then as a trade/waiver claim elsewhere (like Arcia this year).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keep in mind that we won't need 40-man spots for Hughes or Perkins until they are ready to come off the 60-DL. Which might not be until next spring.

This is incorrect.  Players on the disabled list have to be activated after the season, and can't be put back on the DL until spring training. Thus those players will count again toward the 40-man roster all winter.

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538

 

 

A player can be placed on the MLB Emergency Disabled List (60-day DL) during Spring Training or anytime during the MLB regular season

 

...

 

players on an MLB 15-day or 60-day DL must be reinstated no later than 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series, even if the player was on an MLB 60-day DL and did not spend 60 days on the DL.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Randy Rosario was finally moved to the bullpen a few weeks ago, and the results have been very encouraging even if the walks are still a little high:

 

5 G, 9.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 16 K

 

That's a big improvement on his 5.5 K/9 as a starter this season.  And his control was pretty decent as a starter too (3.0 BB/9) which should give him some hope to manage that in the pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jeremy, you wrote your 40-man additions post at the beginning of July, when Zach Jones had just been returned to the Twins.  Is his performance since then worth revising your earlier judgment?  I feel like he wouldn't get claimed again, but it's also hard to ignore his improved numbers down there...

[d-mac]

 

This is incorrect.  Players on the disabled list have to be activated after the season, and can't be put back on the DL until spring training. Thus those players will count again toward the 40-man roster all winter.

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538

 

Well, that's a bummer. I've thought in past situations with TJ surgeries, players going on the 60-DL stayed on all off season. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, that's a bummer. I've thought in past situations with TJ surgeries, players going on the 60-DL stayed on all off season. 

Nope.  That's why it was notable when the careers of Albert Belle and Prince Fielder ended, because they had to stay on a disabled list for the team to collect insurance.  Those teams essentially had to manage with a 39-man roster every offseason from November until March.

 

Thankfully Perkins and Hughes aren't quite that hopeless yet, but it is inconvenient to have them occupy two spots while also trying to temper expectations for them.

[Doomtints]

 

Fortunately for Vargas, he is out of options next spring.  The Twins have very little leverage to try to sell him overseas against his wishes.  All of their other recent sales or attempted sales had a AAA optional assigment looming above them -- Albers, Kris Johnson, Colabello, and Vargas last winter.  Vargas should get some kind of MLB opportunity/paycheck next spring, if not here then as a trade/waiver claim elsewhere (like Arcia this year).

 

I'm guessing that with Ryan gone the Twins won't be selling any more prospects to overseas teams for pocket change.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Brandon noted in his article that Escobar has an .800 OPS in June/July.  Not sure about the Aug splits, but if that's the case, it might just have been Escobar's injuries that held him down.  I'd be all over holding on to him at that point, especially since Gordon will likely be in AA next season and Esco can keep the spot warm so to speak.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Brandon noted in his article that Escobar has an .800 OPS in June/July.  Not sure about the Aug splits, but if that's the case, it might just have been Escobar's injuries that held him down.  I'd be all over holding on to him at that point, especially since Gordon will likely be in AA next season and Esco can keep the spot warm so to speak.

.818 over June and July, but .739 overall since June 1.  And of course, he wasn't playing every day in June and July, which was the frequently cited excuse for his poor hitting in early 2015.

 

Maybe not every period of good or bad performance has an explanation, other than they part of a player's potential range of performances?  With a low-ish walk rate and an average-ish K rate, Escobar's batting line may be more prone to the swings of BIP luck.  (Same with Rosario and Santana.)

 

 

That's not to say one can't make a case for keeping Escobar, of course.

 

[Deduno Abides]

Melotakis and Walker could be removed with little risk of it ever affecting an MLB victory.

 

Melotakis is a little more questionable, because he's a power lefty, but he has been mediocre in AA this year and is on the DL again with an elbow injury, assumedly the same elbow that had TJ.

[jud6312]

 

Easy decisions:

O'Rourke

Dean

Albers

Boshers

 

Slightly harder to cut:

Santiago (I mean, sure, try to trade him first....)

Centeno (bad defense)

 

Harder to cut/trade, but I'd still do it:

Grossman (he makes Delmon look graceful)

Danny Santana (he does everything, mostly very badly)

DanSan and Grossy? You just want to see Molitor cry don't you?

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I'm not sure why Vargas would be considered any less than dead even with Park in contending for a future roster spot at this point.