Article: Should Robbie Grossman Be In The Twins Plans?

[kab21]

 

I'd prefer signing a legitimate veteran OF as a stop gap so Buxton can earn his way into the lineup. Somebody like Carlos Gomez for example. In a scenario like that, Grossman can still stay on as the 4th OF, DSan's off the team, and Escobar takes over as the utility player. 

You have Rosario and Kepler as stop gaps and Granite a little further off. I think signing another stop gap isn't necessary. I think you take value where you can get it though and if there is a Dexter Fowler type of value out there then go for it. Maybe that is Carlos Gomez. He has looked terrible this year but I would be very happy with 2015 Carlos Gomez and there is potential beyond that.

 

I think Grossman is the perfect 4th OF'er considering how this team is built. Our KosherJew/Scott mentioned the defensive importance of the 4th OF'er but when your corner OF'ers are Kepler and Rosario then that is less important since you can always shift them to CF. In addition to that I think Santana is a lock to be back. Many will hate it but he can play every position but 1B and C. That positional flexibility allows you a lot of different options at the other bench spots. And as it relates to Grossman it allows for the Twins to keep a less defensive gifted OF'er since Santana is another CF option.

 

Next years bench

backup catcher 

Polanco

Grossman

DanSan

 

I think the Twins roll with Grossman while he is cheap but keep him as a plan B in the OF since his numbers are fluky this year (and every GM believes this). He is probably a .240/.330/.370/.700 hitter. That isn't great but it is great for a backup making 500+K.

 

postscript - please stop playing Santana so much. His versatility makes him a great 25th man. Stop playing him 3-4+ times/wk.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Is there someone that can elaborate on what aspect of his defense is so deficient? I guess I haven't seen enough of him out there to notice more than a couple bad plays. He's not the fastest but he doesn't look like he's pulling a sled either. Considerably better than Delmon Young looking like he's pinching a penny between his but cheeks as he waddles. Does he take bad routes or misjudge balls? He seems to catch what he gets to and the arm looks passable. It's confusing how he could be rated so poorly when he looks to have average athleticism and baseball smarts.

Combo of things.  He is slow afoot, left-handed and doesn't have a strong arm. 

 

As a LF, slow afoot lessens his ability to throw runners out because he has to turn-around to make a throw.  He ain't no ballerina.  The lack of a strong arm exacerbates the issue.   A right-hander in LF would almost always be in a position to make the throw back into the infield right away.  In RF, or even CF, Grossman's problem would be less prominent. 

 

I'd call Grossman a classic #4 outfielder.  Not good enough to start, good enough for pinch-hit, DH and occasional OF duties. If there's a MLB-ready OF in the minors, Grossman is an easy cut.

Edited August 11, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[Tom Froemming]

I like Robbie, but to me the hope is that the young guys play him out of the picture. Ideally next season I'd like to see Kepler in RF, Buxton in CF and either Walker or Palka in LF with Rosario as the 4th OF.

 

Walker is yet again leading his league in homers. The Ks are obviously a huge concern, and he's not known for his defense, but he deserves a look with the big club at some point next season.

 

You can basically say all the same things about Palka, but Walker has a lot more of a track record in the upper minors (987 PAs between Double A & Triple A vs. Palka's 468).

 

Both Walker and Palka turn 25 in October. If you're not going to leave the door open for them next season then at least one of them needs to be traded.

[Thrylos]

The 4 OFs for the Twins in 2017 should be (alphabetically) : Buxton, Kepler, Palka, and Rosario.  There are 3 DH/1B on the roster: Vargas, Mauer, Park.

 

Because Grossman is so good against LHP, and 3 of the 4 mentioned are LHBs, he might have a position with the Twins in 2017 over Danny Santana as a fifth OF, but that will require the Twins to get rid of one of their DHs.  And if that is Vargas, it would be a shame, because I'd rather have Vargas than Grossman on the team any day.

 

So the equation is really:

Grossman or Palka  

or

Grossman or Vargas

 

And for me, Grossman loses both of those...  

So the Twins should sell high, hopefully this month.

[Willihammer]

Take a page out of the Earl Weaver playbook- on road games bat Grossman 1st or 2nd to get on base in the top of the first, then sub in Rosario for his defense in the bottom half of the inning.

Edited August 11, 2016 by Willihammer

[John Kelsey]

It seems that people don't realize how terrible he is defensively because he doesn't make any glaring mistakes like Delmon, Arcia, Sano etc. 

 

He doesn't get to balls that an outfielder should and has a noodle arm, not a good combo. 

[kab21]

 

The 4 OFs for the Twins in 2017 should be (alphabetically) : Buxton, Kepler, Palka, and Rosario.  There are 3 DH/1B on the roster: Vargas, Mauer, Park.

 

Because Grossman is so good against LHP, and 3 of the 4 mentioned are LHBs, he might have a position with the Twins in 2017 over Danny Santana as a fifth OF, but that will require the Twins to get rid of one of their DHs.  And if that is Vargas, it would be a shame, because I'd rather have Vargas than Grossman on the team any day.

 

So the equation is really:

Grossman or Palka  

or

Grossman or Vargas

 

And for me, Grossman loses both of those...  

So the Twins should sell high, hopefully this month.

How exactly do you think the Twins can sell high this month? We are talking about a 4th OF'er here.

 

Why cut Grossman just to bring up Palka as a 4th OF'er? 

 

I am also not sure how Vargas ended up on the chopping block vs Grossman. If Sano is at 3B then Vargas is probably at DH although perhaps you are talking about Park but he has MiLB options left.

[KirbyDome89]

If the Twins move Plouffe like they should, and Sano takes over 3B full time then the DH logjam is solved and Vargas doesn't have to go. Park can spend another year in the minors if necessary, or maybe he and Vargas duke it out who knows? Polanco is your IF utility. The infamous Dantana can finally be relieved of his duty (who am I kidding this guy is going to torture me forever,) which opens up another spot for either ABW or Palka. I feel Grossman's ability to get on base and work an AB is underrated. I'm also not sold at all on ABW ever being a productive MLB player, of the two prospects Palka is the more intriguing prospect to me. IMO there is no need to toss Grossman out when other moves can be made which would actually strengthen the roster. 

[Thrylos]

 

Why cut Grossman just to bring up Palka as a 4th OF'er? 

 

Who said that Palka would be a 4th OF?  Rosario (because he can play CF) would likely be the 4th OF and his playing time would be like 110 games resting all other 3.  Other option is that Buxton does not make the team...

[nytwinsfan]

Today's game is exhibit A of why Grossman should not be the Twins' long-term left fielder. Trade him to someone who values his offense and fails to fully account for his terrible range.

[nyazbeck]

No

[d-mac]

 

Defense is worse than Delmon's? He's lucky he's not nearly the polarizing figure that Delmon was or his public perception would be much worse.

I haven't watched him close enough in the field to get a good handle on is defense. Does he just lack range or is he missing stuff he should be able to get?

 

Grossman just lacks range and his arm is about average for LF. He makes all of the plays he should. DRS hates him. UZR thinks he's bad, RZR rates him as below average, and Inside Edge actually likes him. So I tend to think of him more as a below average, Cuddyer-like defender, not much range, but makes all the plays he should, but without Cuddyer's arm. Which is fine for LF, if we've got a plus defender in CF and an above average RF. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I like Grossman and think he is important to the team as it is currently constructed.  A solid fourth outfielder who can get on base and hit with some power.  Solid.

 

However, if I am reading the tea leaves correctly big change is coming.  The build from within punctuated with bargain bin players to fill gaps era is about to end. 

 

I fully expect that a new GM is going to diversify how he builds out the roster by trading away some valuable young assets to create a more veteran and balanced lineup. The days of putting all our eggs in the high potential, but unproven player basket are over.

 

If my predictions come true, I expect Grossman will be on the outside looking in.  

[h2oface]

Today's game is exhibit A of why Grossman should not be the Twins' long-term left fielder. Trade him to someone who values his offense and fails to fully account for his terrible range.

I totally agree. An outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler would have erased a bunch of runs on the two flys that Grossman let fall for doubles. Just not enough range. Berrios sure could have used better d behind him, including Escobar's limited range that turned an out into a RBI single and Centeno launching a rocket into left field.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I totally agree. An outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler would have erased a bunch of runs on the two flys that Grossman let fall for doubles. Just not enough range. Berrios sure could have used better d behind him, including Escobar's limited range that turned an out into a RBI single and Centeno launching a rocket into left field.

Berrios is an extreme flyball pitcher. He can't have a Grossman in the outfield.  Not as big a deal for Gibson.

Edited August 11, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[h2oface]

Berrios is an extreme flyball pitcher. He can't have a Grossman in the outfield. Not as big a deal for Gibson.

If we can see this, why can't Molitor?

[SarasotaBill]

2016 is for evaluation not for wins

[nytwinsfan]

 

2016 is for evaluation not for wins

Fair enough, but hard to evaluate Berrios much when he leaves in the third inning because of multiple doubles that are hit outside of Grossman's pathetic range.

Edited August 11, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[Shane Wahl]

I would see what a trade might bring.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I like Grossman and think he is important to the team as it is currently constructed. A solid fourth outfielder who can get on base and hit with some power. Solid.

 

However, if I am reading the tea leaves correctly big change is coming. The build from within punctuated with bargain bin players to fill gaps era is about to end.

 

I fully expect that a new GM is going to diversify how he builds out the roster by trading away some valuable young assets to create a more veteran and balanced lineup. The days of putting all our eggs in the high potential, but unproven player basket are over.

 

If my predictions come true, I expect Grossman will be on the outside looking in.

How have you come to this conclusion? Or is this a should statement disguised as a prediction?

[Darius]

No.

 

He's been OK. But, his numbers are still inflated by that unbelievable first few weeks. That clearly wasn't sustainable. If we take that month away, and he's more like a .700 less OPS guy (just a guess, didn't crunch any numbers), we're likely not having this conversation.

 

He's got great plate discipline, but he won't really hit much (not for a corner outfielder, anyway). There isn't much to speak of defensively. His speed isn't going to help you. He's just not really good (relatively) at anything.

 

He's not really going to hurt you, but he's not really a requisite piece on real contender either. When it comes down to fourth outfielder, I'd rather have a guy like Walker or Palka, who could have elite power, or a guy like Santana who can run the bases for you late in games and play multiple spots (including some infield in an emergency). Not that any of those guys are better all around players right now, but ideally, I want an elite "tool" to use off the bench (whether speed, power, or all around defense) for situational things. You can't really sub him for anyone in the ninth inning and upgrade anything, other than maybe ability to draw a walk.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

No.

He's been OK. But, his numbers are still inflated by that unbelievable first few weeks. That clearly wasn't sustainable. If we take that month away, and he's more like a .700 less OPS guy (just a guess, didn't crunch any numbers), we're likely not having this conversation.

 

To be fair, Grossman's July was very good (.402 OBP, .278 AVG, .750 OPS).

 

He has a .343 OBP in about 900 career AB, and he's likely not yet entered his "prime" years. There's room for him on this team.

[Shaitan]

He can fight for that 200 AB/year 24th or 25th man role. If he doesn't make: so long and thank you, good luck on the waiver wire.

 

Here's sort of a Shane Robinson position, but leaning offensively instead of defensively.

[Jordan1212]

The answer is simple no he won't be here next year

[Jordan1212]

What we truly need to talk about is the fact that Escobar pitched today and threw 91 mph and even curve ball you have got to be kidding me!! Our starters have tough time throwing 89 that is our major problem we have no pitching NONE! We would be fine with the young kids like palka coming up but when our starter gives up 5 runs consistently and early it doesn't matter to even talk about position players

[kab21]

 

Who said that Palka would be a 4th OF?  Rosario (because he can play CF) would likely be the 4th OF and his playing time would be like 110 games resting all other 3.  Other option is that Buxton does not make the team...

I think this is a longer term possibility. Palka is very unlikely to open the season on the MLB unless there are injuries that open the door (or Buxton doesn't make the team). Nor do I think it is realistic that Rosario is essentially benched on opening day. But as we have seen with Buxton and Rosario this year it is important to have capable backups like Grossman when a prospect struggles.

 

The funny thing about this is that Grossman is only 2 years older than Palka (and Walker). He doesn't have the power of either of those players but he isn't Jason Tyner at the plate and he has a .379 MiLB OBP. If the Twins continue to field an OF with 2-3 plus fielders that can also play CF then he is a really valuable backup that finally gives the Twins a PH'ing option off the bench.

[tobi0040]

Despite his likely unsustainable offensive season (.392 OBP and 127 ERA +), his defense almost wipes away his value (BRef has a 1.7 oWar and -1.6 dWar).

 

So we should have no real compelling reason to keep him around because he is likely a negative value player. We also should have some money to spend, so I we should have a pick of external options to Walker/Grossman.

[kab21]

 

Despite his likely unsustainable offensive season (.392 OBP and 127 ERA +), his defense almost wipes away his value (BRef has a 1.7 oWar and -1.6 dWar).

So we should have no real compelling reason to keep him around because he is likely a negative value player. We also should have some money to spend, so I we should have a pick of external options to Walker/Grossman.

The Twins shouldn't be spending money on OF'ers right now unless there is a good value for a starter. 

I have never really liked the combination of offense and defense into WAR and don't really believe that analysis. One flaw in your analysis (before the issue of offense and defense comes up) is that discrediting his SSS offense while not crediting him for better defense (more data is needed for a relevant SS). I would be happy to have a bench bat with a .340 OBP and some power that can PH or sub in sometimes.

[jimmer]

Robbie Grossman didn't just start playing MLB this year.  He was called up in 2013 and got decent playing time and then got quite a bit of playing time in 2014.  Neither year was good.  Then he took an even worse header in 2015 causing him to be released. We don't just have this year to see what kind of player he is.

 

Also, one doesn't need to look at the metrics and say his defense isn't good.  All they have to do is watch him.  The eye test and metrics match.

 

Anyway, he's coming back down to the player he has always been after an enjoyable first half.  

Edited August 12, 2016 by jimmer

[kab21]

 

Robbie Grossman didn't just start playing MLB this year.  He was called up in 2013 and got decent playing time and then got quite a bit of playing time in 2014.  Neither year was good.  Then he took an even worse header in 2015 causing him to be released. We don't just have this year to see what kind of player he is.

 

Also, one doesn't need to look at the metrics and say his defense isn't good.  All they have to do is watch him.  The eye test and metrics match.

 

Anyway, he's coming back down to the player he has always been after an enjoyable first half.  

This is his age 26 season and he has a .340 career OBP.

 

Right now he comps to Gene Larkin. Not a guy that should be starting but a guy that you like to have on the bench.