Article: Should Robbie Grossman Be In The Twins Plans?

[Ted Schwerzler]

On May 20th, Robbie Grossman made his debut with the Minnesota Twins. After starting the year in the Cleveland Indians organization, Grossman saw opportunity through the Twins farm system and jumped ship. Playing just one game with the Rochester Red Wings, Grossman was headed to the big leagues. The question now is should he stay there, at least for the Twins.

 

In the 2008 Major League Baseball draft, Robbie Grossman was a sixth-round pick out of high school by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was rated the 76th best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2012 season, and he made his big league debut in 2013 with the Houston Astros. Through his first three big league seasons Grossman owned a .240/.327/.341 slash line. He never flashed any real power, but was a solid on-base contributor.For the Twins, Grossman has experienced nothing short of a revolution. In 64 games with Minnesota, Grossman owns a .266/.392/.436 slash line. He's hit a career best seven home runs, and his 14 doubles tie him for a career mark with 49 games left to go. His defense has been anything but average. With a -12 DRS number and a -7.2 UZR, Fangraphs sees him as essentially Josh Willingham out in left field for Minnesota.

 

Right now, Grossman's contribution to the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins is largely irrelevant. Really though, that's only because it's a microcosm of what the 2016 Twins have become. This is a lost season for Paul Molitor's squad, and no results are going to matter much in the grand scheme of things. What Grossman is doing, and fighting for, is a place on this team and in the organization going forward.

 

So, what exactly does that look like? Well, Grossman's bat has played to a capable, if not above average level. His power is not along the lines of a corner outfielder, but his advanced on-base rate is something any team would enjoy putting ahead of power hitters in their lineup. In the outfield though, he's essentially been the 2012 version of Josh Willingham, and could finish the year with worse numbers than the 2008 version of Delmon Young. Weighing out both the negatives as well as contributions, the next place to look is at the competition.

At Triple-A, there are only two realistic big league prospects; Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka. A level further down, Zach Granite and Travis Harrison could be in play but won't be ready come Opening Day 2017. So, let's take a look at the two current Triple-A options.

 

Both Palka and Walker present similar skill sets. They are hitters first, with a ton of power, and a relatively high strikeout rate. Walker has the weaker arm of the two, but is also the one on the 40-man roster. Palka was acquired prior to 2016 in exchange for former Twins backstop Chris Herrmann. Between Double- and Triple-A in 2016, Palka is slashing .264/.343/.533 with 27 homers, 141 strikeouts, and 51 walks. Adam Brett Walker has played the entire season at Triple-A and owns a .243/.310/.481 line with 22 homers, 164 strikeouts, and 37 walks. Being on the 40-man, it's a pretty good bet he will see time with the Twins in September.

 

So, where does that leave us to open the 2017 season, and what is Robbie Grossman up against? Let's assume that the starting outfield includes Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario from right to left. Buxton is probably the biggest question mark of the group, but you can bet a new GM will be wanting to make sure he rights the former consensus top overall prospect's ship. With Danny Santana continuing to be loved by the organization, and out of options, he seems a good bet to return as a utility player who draws a good deal of time as a rotating outfielder. In this scenario, you've probably got room for one more true outfielder on the 25-man roster.

 

If it comes down to whether or not the Twins keep Robbie Grossman, or roll with one of either Daniel Palka or Adam Brett Walker, a smart choice might be choosing one of the latter two. Walker doesn't have nearly the on-base prowess, and while Palka doesn't either, he's not as far removed. Both of the Twins home-grown options have a significantly more realistic power component to their game though, and should play defense at least at a comparable level.

 

My opinion relies largely upon two factors: What happens to Byron Buxton, and what can you get for Robbie Grossman? If Buxton isn't on the 2017 Twins Opening Day roster (things are bad already), that means Eddie Rosario is your starting centerfielder, leaving left field up for grabs. In that scenario, carrying both Robbie Grossman and one of the two Triple-A guys could make a lot of sense.

 

To answer the second question, the Twins will have to do their homework. Experiencing a solid season at the age of 26, and turning 27 prior to the 2017 season, Grossman arguably still has his prime ahead of him. Not arbitration-eligible until 2018, and not a free agent until 2021, he could be a nice piece for a club closer to contending. If the return is worthy of flipping him and going with the other internal options, some serious thought ought to go into it.

 

For now, Robbie Grossman has played himself into a realistic big league roster spot for the foreseeable future. Whether that continues to be with the Twins or not is the only thing yet to be determined. The pieces are still moving, but they should work themselves out.

 

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[pierre75275]

I think Buxton is far from having a guaranteed spot out of spring training. I think Grossman stays until Buxton gets recalled next year whenever the Twins decide he is ready. I think Dsantana sticks one more year until the Buxton/Palka/Walker/Grossman situation has more clarity.

[SarasotaBill]

.266/.392/.436 - 2016

 

.333/.422 /538 - vs LHP

 

Unless you get great value in a trade, you keep and play Grossman as a minimum as a 4th OF/DH vs LHP. He even has a .376 OBP vs. RHP.

 

Slash lines say it all.

 

 

[troyhobbs]

Ya the twins need him unless they sign someone who can play better D. Maybe they can flip him next year if he and Buxton are both playing well but doubt Buxton climbs out from below the mendoza line to set the world on fire so better keep Grossman around.

[High heat]

I think Vargas and Polonco plays a factor in Grossman staying or going as well. Vargas and Polonco are out of options next yr, if you are keeping Polonco as a utility guy or the SS that leaves him or Escobar as the super utility. Vargas has played well and his upside is like his body type. If he is the DH I don't want Grossman taking at bats from Vargas or Escobar or Polonco. I think it would be a different story if Grossman played better defensively but he has been a far cry from the former CFer. That's not even considering any free agent signings or players acquire by trade. I think Grossman is going to be the 26th man and a victim of the roster crunch if he is worth something get it even if it is a flyer on a young guy in the low minors.

[ALessKosherScott]

I think the flaw with Grossman is that a fourth-outfielder/guy who sits against righties in general type of player has to be a pretty good defender to stick. And defense has never really been Grossman's thing.

 

As long as he doesn't get too expensive or block someone better, he's a fine bench piece.

[Comrade Bork]

Defense is worse than Delmon's? He's lucky he's not nearly the polarizing figure that Delmon was or his public perception would be much worse.

 

I haven't watched him close enough in the field to get a good handle on is defense. Does he just lack range or is he missing stuff he should be able to get?

[ashbury]

Grossman was playing CF at AAA as recently as this past spring. He just doesn't have the arm for it, while his bat doesn't play in a corner position, making him more of a tweener, but his collection of talents could still be interesting to some other team lacking a capable 4th outfielder. He could be the proverbial sweetener in a deal centered around a more valuable guy like Dozier, to get back the prospect we want. The new Brian Duensing.

 

Palka and Walker are more suited to their corner OF positions, if their bats turn out to be solid at the MLB level. Starter or bust, the jury is still out, although some observers seem to already have marked their ballots.

 

Trade away Grossman, the more sure thing, and you could end up with nothing. That's the risk you take, but in the end these are all marginal choices unlikely to cause real regret if you go wrong.

[goulik]

I think Danny Santana has played out his string and Robbie Grossman returns next year as the fourth or fifth option. In my head, I see the Twins cutting ties(hopefully via trades) with DSan, Vargas or Park(I think Park stays), and Plouffe before Spring Training. I am also confident that Palka will leap frog ABW to the majors and if either is here in the Spring, it will be Palka.

[Mike Sixel]

 

.266/.392/.436 - 2016

 

.333/.422 /538 - vs LHP

 

Unless you get great value in a trade, you keep and play Grossman as a minimum as a 4th OF/DH vs LHP. He even has a .376 OBP vs. RHP.

 

Slash lines say it all.

 

so just ignore the terrible defense?  That part counts too.

 

that said, given how awful Buxton has been, I think Grossman and one of the other guys is on the roster.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think the flaw with Grossman is that a fourth-outfielder/guy who sits against righties in general type of player has to be a pretty good defender to stick. And defense has never really been Grossman's thing.

 

As long as he doesn't get too expensive or block someone better, he's a fine bench piece.

 

He'll have at least one more year of pre-arbitration, so he'll basically make $550K or less.

[EddieMatthews]

As  other posters have stated, this isn't about Robbie Grossman as much as about the roster challenges in general.  

 

Vargas is the big question, now that Buxton is back in Rochester.  After a hot July, Kennys is 0-fer in August and has played only 3 games in 10 days.  If he is the next Ortiz (as some have stated) he needs to play and show he can  be clutch.

 

The next GM needs to fish or cut bait on Byung-ho Park.  I see him as the odd man out.  A bad decision shouldn't drive more bad decisions.  Not a slam on Park, but on the overabundance of DH.

 

Grossman's value is as a part-time outfielder and part-time DH.  His OBP should be an asset to set the table for Kepler, Sano, Vargas.  Problem is that the Twins already have an institution in the 2-hole.  Maybe try Grossman as lead-off?  Again, roster issues as this spot is filled with a career .243 hitter.

[Seth Stohs]

Only thing I'd add is that I don't think Grossman has any trade value. No GM altered their opinion of his value when Grossman was on his hot stretch the first 6 weeks with the Twins. They know what he is, and what he isn't. So, I don't think that a trade is really an option. As  Brock pointed out in a thread yesterday, there really is no "Sell High" with Grossman. 

 

I'd keep him around, let him compete for a role in spring training. Enjoy his professional at bats.

[ThejacKmp]

 

.266/.392/.436 - 2016

 

.333/.422 /538 - vs LHP

 

Unless you get great value in a trade, you keep and play Grossman as a minimum as a 4th OF/DH vs LHP. He even has a .376 OBP vs. RHP.

 

Slash lines say it all.

 

That's a pretty small sample size too. He hasn't been that good before 2016. Not to say that those numbers don't matter but "slash lines say it all" is a bit of a small picture view. In the same way an Eduardo Nunez might not be so good next year, Grossman has a solid chance to fall back to earth.

 

I don't mind him competing for the 4th OF job in spring training but unless Palka and ABW look not ready, it makes no sense to go with Grossman. He's pretty terrible defensively and his upside is decidedly limited - important for a developing Twins team. The question that works against him is, "What is Robbie Grossman's role on the next great Twins team?" Pretty sure the answer is ball boy.

 

Holding out for "great value" is insane. No team is going to value Grossman based on a half season of value. The Twins should get to spring training, use Grossman as an emergency OF plan and then hope that some team will give them anything for him.

[mikelink45]

The rest of the year should be about auditions and that should carry over into Spring Training.  To play for anything except 2017 is a waste of time.  We are going no where that counts and we should start figuring out the next season when we might climb back up to respectability.  Kepler has shown that the only true way to judge a player is to put him on the field - what if we did that with Palka and Walker the rest of the year? 

[Vanimal46]

I'd prefer signing a legitimate veteran OF as a stop gap so Buxton can earn his way into the lineup. Somebody like Carlos Gomez for example. In a scenario like that, Grossman can still stay on as the 4th OF, DSan's off the team, and Escobar takes over as the utility player. 

[Doomtints]

I would keep him as the #4 and the occasional pinch hitter, esp. against lefties.

 

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

so just ignore the terrible defense?  That part counts too.

 

that said, given how awful Buxton has been, I think Grossman and one of the other guys is on the roster.

 

If you have a player hitting .333/.422/.538 I don't think you give half a rip about their defense as long as it isn't a total horror show. We experienced many years of Willingham and Delmon for less than that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you have a player hitting .333/.422/.538 I don't think you give half a rip about their defense as long as it isn't a total horror show. We experienced many years of Willingham and Delmon for less than that.

 

you think that's his true talent level? 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'd prefer signing a legitimate veteran OF as a stop gap so Buxton can earn his way into the lineup. Somebody like Carlos Gomez for example. In a scenario like that, Grossman can still stay on as the 4th OF, DSan's off the team, and Escobar takes over as the utility player. 

I've been digging around a little to see if there's something physical that has caused Gomez's decline. 

He's had hamstring and rib issues this year.  The decline really started with the Brewers.

 

Maybe with a couple weeks off to heal and a change in scenery, he could be worth a look.  Anything to keep Buxton in the minors longer, IMHO.

[Hrbek70]

I don't think our 4th or 5th OFers are going to make or break us and he is cheap for at least another year. Look at the crap we have had roaming the OF the past few years and I say keep him until Palka forces his way to MSP. Grossman is a better professional hitter than ABW and is about as valuable as Santana too. We need role players on the team that don't think they are stars and IMO Grossman fits this perfectly. Hopefully we have Kepler, Buxton and Rosario manning the OF next March and Grossman can give them a blow 1-2 times a week and get 12-16 ABs a week.

 

 

[SarasotaBill]

Comparing Nunez and Grossman is like comparing apples and oranges.

Nunez is a free swinger and Grossman takes "professional" at bats.

 

Nunez MLB career .312 OBP (age 24 -29)

Grossman MLB career .343 (age 23-26) just entering his prime

Their MiLB OBP has a even bigger difference

 

.400 OBP players don't grow on trees. At the very least I want him around until it's proven otherwise.

[Taildragger8791]

 

you think that's his true talent level? 

 

Not at all, it's probably much better. Against lefties in the minors this year he was .500/.545/.850. He's clearly HOF against southpaws. Don't mind that it was only 20 AB.

 

I kid. No I don't, but I don't think it's terribly far off other than the power may be inflated. He does have a history of hitting well against lefties, especially looking at his minor league splits over the years. Why not ride it out and see if he can keep it up? He isn't blocking anyone this year. It wouldn't work out logistically, but he'd platoon well with Palka if they find themselves on a roster together. Palka does quite a bit better against righties over his career, especially in the power department.

[Lonestar]

 

I think Danny Santana has played out his string and Robbie Grossman returns next year as the fourth or fifth option. In my head, I see the Twins cutting ties(hopefully via trades) with DSan, Vargas or Park(I think Park stays), and Plouffe before Spring Training. I am also confident that Palka will leap frog ABW to the majors and if either is here in the Spring, it will be Palka.

That

[Everyday Eddy]

Have him work to improve his defense (he's not that old, it can be done) and suddenly he's a pretty good player to have on the roster

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

I'd prefer signing a legitimate veteran OF as a stop gap so Buxton can earn his way into the lineup. Somebody like Carlos Gomez for example. In a scenario like that, Grossman can still stay on as the 4th OF, DSan's off the team, and Escobar takes over as the utility player. 

Carlos Gomez? "The" infamous Carlos Gomez of inconsistency fame? Why waste the money? We can have the inconsistent Buxton on the squad for less dough. Besides, glancing at the roster, the Twinkies are long on outfielders anyway. I'd rather see a young'un get a chance than pick up another oldster off the junk heap.

[Taildragger8791]

Is there someone that can elaborate on what aspect of his defense is so deficient? I guess I haven't seen enough of him out there to notice more than a couple bad plays. He's not the fastest but he doesn't look like he's pulling a sled either. Considerably better than Delmon Young looking like he's pinching a penny between his but cheeks as he waddles. Does he take bad routes or misjudge balls? He seems to catch what he gets to and the arm looks passable. It's confusing how he could be rated so poorly when he looks to have average athleticism and baseball smarts.

[TheBoofIsLoose]

He's cheap, relatively young, and has a few positive aspects to his game. As others have said there is no real market for him and he isn't taking a spot from somebody. Until Buxton stops being bounced between levels we could use a solid, on-base producing, fourth outfielder. 

[HitInAPinch]

To me, it depends. 

 

Danny Santana and Robbie Grossman have been serving a purpose:  Delaying callups of MiLBers who are not quite ready.  Need a little more seasoning.  This is where the Twins failed Buxton, IMHO going all in on an unproven commodity at MLB-level was desperation move for CF defense.

 

So, who are the ready/almost outfielders?  I know ABW and Palka get mentioned a lot [power].  How about Wade?  Earlier this year, Wade was ranked higher than ABW (March 4, FanGraphs)  If they're not ready right now, why are we talking about ditching either Santana or Grossman?

 

Should Grossman (or DanSan) be in the Twins plans?   IDK.  Show me the plan!

[ashbury]

Is there someone that can elaborate on what aspect of his defense is so deficient?

The arm is half a step above Ben Revere's. I've seen baserunners abuse him because of it - he gets to the ball and doesn't do anything especially wrong and yet a baserunner decides to go for it and winds up not paying a price. Too many of those and it starts to be a problem even if everything else is more or less sound.