Article: Buxton Stalls Out, Again

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's important to note, this particular "demotion" was basically just an extended rehab stint.  The Twins did the same with Arcia in May 2014.  I think late April 2016 was his first "real" demotion.

 

A bunch of folks here were encouraged by this one.  His OPS was climbing last September, and his K rate dropping.  Hit a couple HR near the end of the season.  Seemed like most folks here thought he had made enough progress to open 2016 in MLB, even if he was still very much a work in progress at the plate with most of his value coming from defense.

Individually, many (if not all) of those moves are defensible.

 

But at some point, the team needs to reel back, examine the bigger picture, and realize what they're doing.

 

The guy either needs to be in Minnesota or Rochester. Pick one. Stick with it for no fewer than two months at minimum.

[Vanimal46]

 

Along with that, I hope We get another hitting coach. This one is not working for Buxton and he is that important to the franchise.

Agreed. Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are IMO the most important players to the franchise. If Bruno can't find a way to get through to these players he has to go.  

[alarp33]

 

But Buxton is not there yet. I'm just making comparisons based on a equivalent number of PAs. Bradley hit better than Buxton over the same period. Which, probably explains why Boston was more patient with him during his struggles. But they still sent him down eventually. Would he have figured it out the MLB level? Possibly, but we don't know that. We only know what they did and it worked. FYI, by the time Bradley came up for good in 2015 he had 1,032 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has had 459. Neither were ready for the show. There is no harm in admitting that as long as it's rectified. 

 

I was replying because you acted like Bradley didn't struggle as much as Buxton, he actually struggled just as much, if not more, over a larger sample.  

 

Agree neither were ready, and I think Buxton has been coached poorly

[markos]

 

I'm not a subscriber and I can't seem to find the info.

Sorry, I didn't realize it was behind the paywall:

 

1 90 Cameron Maybin 2009
2 87 Anthony Gose 2013
3 84 Lastings Milledge 2007

[alarp33]

 

Not sure anyone has doomed it.

 

You haven't read through the hundreds of posts about Buxton close enough then, plenty have

[jimmer]

 

Sorry, I didn't realize it was behind the paywall:

 

1 90 Cameron Maybin 2009
2 87 Anthony Gose 2013
3 84 Lastings Milledge 2007

the first name that popped in my head was Maybin.

[Parker Hageman]

 

I keep wishing that Parker would do an analysis of Buxton's approach to bunting.

 

I also wish that Buxton would spend a week with this guy:

 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/762718005440589824

[alarp33]

 

Agreed. Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are IMO the most important players to the franchise. If Bruno can't find a way to get through to these players he has to go.  

 

I have no doubt Brunansky has been working with Buxton this season, and I know were only privy to the information shared in the media.. but I can't be the only one who finds it curious just how little we hear about what they are working on with Buxton, etc.  Seems like one of the top 3 storylines during a 90+ loss season would be all the time the hitting coach is spending with a bottoming out Buxton... but there has been just nothing. 

Edited August 8, 2016 by alarp33

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Individually, many (if not all) of those moves are defensible.

 

But at some point, the team needs to reel back, examine the bigger picture, and realize what they're doing.

 

The guy either needs to be in Minnesota or Rochester. Pick one. Stick with it for no fewer than two months at minimum.

That's fair -- this year's moves have seemed especially baffling.

 

Although maybe it doesn't matter?  If all he was going to be doing at Rochester was more reps with this poor excuse for a leg-kick, would it really have mattered if he spent an extra couple months there?  Would it have just been wasted time?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

the first name that popped in my head was Maybin.

It sounds weird to put it this way but if Buxton ends up hitting like Maybin, he's a pretty good player.

 

Maybin is defensively neutral and has still managed a career WAR just over 10. Switch out Buxton's defense and that WAR could easily double, as the defensive side of WAR would go from neutral to a huge positive.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

2016: STOP IT PLEASE. Back to Minnesota! 169 plate appearances.

 

 

To take this one further, this particular stint, and the one in the Majors back in April.. .it seems more like "7 plate appearances".. "only 1 hit and 3 strikeouts? back to the bench.".. over and over and over. 

 

Take being brand new the Majors, struggling with immensely high expectations and pressure, struggling, and then add in the fact you know if you go 0-3 you are back on the bench the next night.. Insanity. 

 

I know there were slight injuries, and don't recall when each one was.  But July Game log

 

Played 5 straight games, June 28-July 2  (5-20, 3xbh)

Sat 2 games

Played July 5 (2-3 bb, 2x2b)

Sat

Played July 7, Def replacement July 8 (1-4, bb)

Sat July 9+10

Played 2 games

Sat 1

Played 3 games

Sat 1

Played 4 games

Sat 1

Played 3 games, replacement in 1

Sat 3

Played 2 games

Sat 2

 

Edited August 8, 2016 by alarp33

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's fair -- this year's moves have seemed especially baffling.

 

Although maybe it doesn't matter?  If all he was going to be doing at Rochester was more reps with this poor excuse for a leg-kick, would it really have mattered if he spent an extra couple months there?  Would it have just been wasted time?

Dunno, it's possible the Twins haven't hurt Buxton one bit.

 

But we can all agree they haven't helped, which indicates their strategy is, at best, neutral.

[Deduno Abides]

One of the arguments against sending Buxton down is something like this:

 

1. He hit great already in AAA when Chad Allen was the batting coach.

2. He's hitting terribly in the majors with Tom Brunansky as the batting coach.

3. Therefore, he needs to learn how to hit in the majors (with Brunansky).

 

See the problem?

 

Unfortunately, there's only 3+ weeks left in the AAA season. Hopefully, Chad Allen will come up with him in September. Sorry Bruno, fair or unfair, but you're going to be measured by Sano and Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, three whole weeks, then he's back again!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, and I hate to be the guy to bring this up again, but if Buxton was in the minors until a few weeks ago, it's likely Arcia is still with the Twins and a more educated decision could have been made about Oswaldo.

 

Bad decisions often create a domino effect that force more bad decisions.

 

It's not as if this team is lacking in centerfielders, particularly in a lost season. Simply put, Buxton did not need to be in Minnesota.

[alarp33]

 

Right, three whole weeks, then he's back again!

 

They'll punish him by sending him home at the end of Rochester's season, they've had such good results with that in the past

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It sounds weird to put it this way but if Buxton ends up hitting like Maybin, he's a pretty good player.

 

Maybin is a defensive liability who has still managed a career WAR just over 10. Switch out Buxton's defense and that WAR could easily double, as the defensive side of WAR would go from a slight negative to a huge positive.

According to the metrics, Maybin wasn't a defensive liability until 2015 (after missing a lot of time in 2013-2014).

 

At his peak, Maybin was an average hitter, plus baserunner, plus defender (by the metrics), and a 3-4 WAR player.  But that peak only lasted 2 seasons, and it looks like the defensive value started deteriorating in his age 26 season...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They'll punish him by sending him home at the end of Rochester's season, they've had such good results with that in the past

It worked for Dozier!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

According to the metrics, Maybin wasn't a defensive liability until 2015 (after missing a lot of time in 2013-2014).

 

At his peak, Maybin was an average hitter, plus baserunner, plus defender (by the metrics), and a 3-4 WAR player.  But that peak only lasted 2 seasons, and it looks like the defensive value started deteriorating in his age 26 season...

Yeah, I fixed my post. I crossed my eyes while reading columns. After I wrote that, it didn't make sense so I went back and double-checked.

[alarp33]

 

It worked for Dozier!

 

I forgot they did it with him.  I was thinking Hicks + Arcia, didn't they both get that treatment?  

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

It sounds weird to put it this way but if Buxton ends up hitting like Maybin, he's a pretty good player.

 

Maybin is defensively neutral and has still managed a career WAR just over 10. Switch out Buxton's defense and that WAR could easily double, as the defensive side of WAR would go from neutral to a huge positive.

Two-thirds of Maybin's career WAR came in 2011/12 with the Padres, his third team. His defensive WAR those years, per Fangraphs, was 10.4 and 6.1. His career offensive WAR is 0.2, defensive is 7.4.

[markos]

 

That's fair -- this year's moves have seemed especially baffling.

 

Although maybe it doesn't matter?  If all he was going to be doing at Rochester was more reps with this poor excuse for a leg-kick, would it really have mattered if he spent an extra couple months there?  Would it have just been wasted time?

It is possible that with more reps at AAA he would have been more comfortable and committed to his new mechanics, and therefore less likely to drift back to his old form when he struggled. Maybe? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is possible that with more reps at AAA he would have been more comfortable and committed to his new mechanics, and therefore less likely to drift back to his old form when he struggled. Maybe? 

Maybe.  I guess I didn't see what the leg kick looked like at AAA.  Anybody checking MILB.TV archived games?

[Deduno Abides]

It is possible that with more reps at AAA he would have been more comfortable and committed to his new mechanics, and therefore less likely to drift back to his old form when he struggled. Maybe?

 

Exactly. Muscle memory.

[markos]

 

Maybe.  I guess I didn't see what the leg kick looked like at AAA.  Anybody checking MILB.TV archived games?

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=741651383&sid=milb
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=739979183&sid=milb
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=734521583&sid=milb

 

This is probably a biased sample.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=741651383&sid=milb
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=739979183&sid=milb
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=734521583&sid=milb

 

This is probably a biased sample.

Thanks.  I was primarily wondering if Parker had done any analysis of how the leg kick looked at AAA, and how it looked in MLB.  But it was nice to see some positive clips about Buxton regardless!

[Tom Froemming]

 

The big question in Rochester is who gets released in order for Buxton to be on roster.  Whoever it is, has been there damn near the whole season.  Will be a rough send off?

Well it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to keep both Darin Mastroianni and Logan Schafer in Triple-A. Maybe it's one of those two who'll be out the door. Buxton, Walker and Palka should be getting the bulk of the playing time in the OF.

[h2oface]

that's the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything.

 

42, no matter what the question.

I like 29. Prime, power, and not 30 yet.

[h2oface]

It's not as if this team is lacking in centerfielders, particularly in a lost season. Simply put, Buxton did not need to be in Minnesota.

Maybe it time to trade a couple again. Aeeeeeee

[Deduno Abides]

Well it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to keep both Darin Mastroianni and Logan Schafer in Triple-A. Maybe it's one of those two who'll be out the door. Buxton, Walker and Palka should be getting the bulk of the playing time in the OF.

Atlanta likes power hitting outfielders and doesn't seem to care as much about defense and striking out. Maybe trade Walker for an infielder or pitcher.