Article: Buxton Stalls Out, Again

[Mike Sixel]

 

42.

 

That doesn't seem like it was a useful question.......

[tobi0040]

Correct, but Buxton doesn't have place on an MLB roster either. He's an offensive blackhole.

One can make a case that Buxton does have a place. He is 22, a top prospect, adds value defensively, and given that he has done well in AAA he has nothing to prove there. Some believe his biggest issue is identifying major league breaking balls, so he needs to be up here to develop.

 

Santana is pretty much the opposite in every sense. He is 25. Never highly regarded. Getting worse. Doesn’t add value defensively. No upside whatsoever.

[tobi0040]

Correct, but Buxton doesn't have place on an MLB roster either. He's an offensive blackhole.

One can make a case that Buxton does have a place. He is 22, a top prospect, adds value defensively, and given that he has done well in AAA he has nothing to prove there. Some believe his biggest issue is identifying major league breaking balls, so he needs to be up here to develop.

 

Santana is pretty much the opposite in every sense. He is 25. Never highly regarded. Getting worse. Doesn’t add value defensively. No upside whatsoever.

[jimmer]

 

That doesn't seem like it was a useful question.......

that's the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything.

 

42, no matter what the question.

[dxpavelka]

Try to remember that we're talking about a guy with 815 career plate appearances above the A ball level.  Things change fast.  Four days ago we were debating the merits of Sano being the guy getting shipped out.

[Dr. Evil]

I think sending him down is the right move. There are some on this thread that feel it is best to keep throwing him out there at the MLB level until he gets it. I would argue that there needs to be at least some level of competency for that to work. Any player working towards the next level needs to feel some level of success to reinforce what he is working on. Right now I bet he just feels like he is letting his team down.

 

In AAA I hope he keeps it simple. Work on putting the ball in play a higher percentage of the time. Maybe shorten the swing a little and get in line with the pitch and see it in a more direct plane instead of standing over your hit zone and reaching for the ball.

 

The timing of when he rolls his wrists over during his swing is much harder to make consistent with the current length of his swing.

[lukeduke1980]

I think this is more of an issue if we don't have options.  Let Rosario, Kepler and Grossman play until they stop hitting.  Maybe try Polanco in left for a few games.   

 

Let some competition drive some development. 

[d-mac]

To humor people Here are the first 350 or so PA's to start the careers of recent Twins CF'ers in wRC+:

 

Revere: 356 PAs: 61 wRC+

Span: 354 PAs: 124 wRC+

Gomez: 352 PAs: 79 wRC+

Hunter: 355 PAs: 68 wRC+

Hicks: 355 PAs: 62 wRC+

 

And none of them had a K% approaching 40. Hicks' was only 25.9%. 

[jimmer]

I don't ever want Polanco in the OF.  just say no!

[Everyday Eddy]

 

One can make a case that Buxton does have a place. He is 22, a top prospect, adds value defensively, and given that he has done well in AAA he has nothing to prove there. Some believe his biggest issue is identifying major league breaking balls, so he needs to be up here to develop.
 

If strictly identifying ML breaking balls is the issue then fine he should be in the majors,   but many (and i assume the Twins) believe there are fundamental flaws in his swing that need refining and the best way to do that is with low pressure and lots of reps.

[Mike Sixel]

 

that's the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything.

 

42, no matter what the question.

 

Uh, you think you had to explain that? I am insulted.....

 

I was suggesting that if that was the question, I'm not sure why I care that was the answer.....

[jimmer]

 

Uh, you think you had to explain that? I am insulted.....

 

 

sorry, not everyone knows that.  my bad :-)

Edited August 8, 2016 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

 

sorry, not everyone knows that.  my bad :-)

 

No harm.......none at all. I admit my post was ... potentially unclear....

[Tom Froemming]

Couple of interesting tidbits I came across ... 

 

- Of 337 hitters with at least 350 PAs over the past two seasons, Buxton has the 64th lowest Z-Swing % (swings at pitches in the zone). So, being inside the top 20% in that category, I'd say he's actually been too passive in regard to pitches in the zone.

 

- I was thinking about maybe writing a blog post relating Buxton to Jackie Bradley Jr., but last month Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal already connected those dots. Most interesting thing to me from his article was Bruno's quotes:

 

"You look over on that side (to the Boston Red Sox), and they’ve got quite a few mentors over there. They can take these young kids and explain to them how they can do it, how they’re going to go through it, how to get out of it. They have a lot of tutelage there. You see the maturity and the development."

 

That's a pretty damning quote in my eyes. As the hitting coach, isn't it kinda Bruno's job to be to do that stuff? That quote also doesn't make the vets like Mauer or Dozier look good, either. If Bruno feels like Byron needs a mentor how come those guys aren't stepping up?

[Boom Boom]

Santana is pretty much the opposite in every sense. He is 25. Never highly regarded. Getting worse. Doesn’t add value defensively. No upside whatsoever.

Which is why Santana stays. There is no hope that he develops into a good player, so his confidence and development be damned.

 

Or also because Paul Molitor is the world's biggest Danny Santana fan.

[d-mac]

 

One can make a case that Buxton does have a place. He is 22, a top prospect, adds value defensively, and given that he has done well in AAA he has nothing to prove there. Some believe his biggest issue is identifying major league breaking balls, so he needs to be up here to develop.

Santana is pretty much the opposite in every sense. He is 25. Never highly regarded. Getting worse. Doesn’t add value defensively. No upside whatsoever.

 

The issue isn't about some fantastical future where everything works out. Because it doesn't. Buxton is overmatched. He clearly has talent, and based on his age it is certainly possible for him to overcome his struggles. However, he has been so bad, I really fail to see how flailing away in the majors (hitting worse than Santana, a replacement level player, mind you) is going to help him. The question then becomes how do we fix these issues? None of us has the answer, but we have ample evidence showing that what the Twins are doing now isn't working. Something different must be done. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Which is why Santana stays. There is no hope that he develops into a good player, so his confidence and development be damned.

Or also because Paul Molitor is the world's biggest Danny Santana fan.

 

Or both....

[alarp33]

 

Which is why Santana stays. There is no hope that he develops into a good player, so his confidence and development be damned.

Or also because Paul Molitor is the world's biggest Danny Santana fan.

 

I lean towards the latter, seeing as the "25th" man plays nearly every night

[carlito_b]

He's still extremely young and hasn't had a full healthy year since his first season. I'm more worried about the injuries than his ability. Look at Jackie Bradley Jr. Everyone was ready to write him off. A defensive wiz that couldn't hit. It took him parts of three seasons to get going and he is older and less talented. Bottom line is the kid needs time not every player adjusts yo major league pitching quickly. Few do just because correa and Bryant did doesn't mean we should expect it. I will say that the twins are handling him poorly but hey wouldn't be the twins if they didnt

[d-mac]

 

Couple of interesting tidbits I came across ... 

 

- Of 337 hitters with at least 350 PAs over the past two seasons, Buxton has the 64th lowest Z-Swing % (swings at pitches in the zone). So, being inside the top 20% in that category, I'd say he's actually been too passive in regard to pitches in the zone.

 

- I was thinking about maybe writing a blog post relating Buxton to Jackie Bradley Jr., but last month Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal already connected those dots. Most interesting thing to me from his article was Bruno's quotes:

 

"You look over on that side (to the Boston Red Sox), and they’ve got quite a few mentors over there. They can take these young kids and explain to them how they can do it, how they’re going to go through it, how to get out of it. They have a lot of tutelage there. You see the maturity and the development."

 

That's a pretty damning quote in my eyes. As the hitting coach, isn't it kinda Bruno's job to be to do that stuff? That quote also doesn't make the vets like Mauer or Dozier look good, either. If Bruno feels like Byron needs a mentor how come those guys aren't stepping up?

 

Bradley Jr, still had a 66 wRC+ over his first 353 PAs of his career. Buxton's struggles are painfully rare. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Bradley Jr, still had a 66 wRC+ over his first 353 PAs of his career. Buxton's struggles are painfully rare. 

I decided against trying to write something bigger connecting those two because they really aren't that similar, outside of being center fielders who struggled in their first exposure to MLB. The way they got to that point was way different. I think it's important to remember that Bradley was only advancing from High A to Double A during his age 22 season.

[jimmer]

Bradley also never broke the top 20 in prospect listings.  Our guy was top 2 for three years straight. It's weird we keep having to compare a guy so highly rated fr so long to just everyone his age/first X amount of PAs. Can't we have higher expectations for a guy so highly rated for so long?

 

I want to know when we are allowed to be disappointed without getting ragged on for being disappointed?  Does he have to be 25?  26?  How old exactly?

Edited August 8, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

Bradley Jr, still had a 66 wRC+ over his first 353 PAs of his career. Buxton's struggles are painfully rare. 

 

Through 576 plate appearances Bradley Jr. had a 47 wRC+.  Hmm. 

[KirbyDome89]

I think part of the kickback regarding the move has to do with the way the Twins seem to yo-yo prospects. I wasn't too happy when they sent him down early in the season because it was a matter of weeks after being tabbed to start in CF. I also had concerns when he was called up quickly in the middle of this season. Add to the shuffle the fact that Molitor has to get his boy Danny ABs, often at the expense of superior OFers, and the struggle of Buxton becomes a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. 

[alarp33]

 

Bradley also never broke the top 20 in prospect listings.  Our guy was top 2 for three years straight. It's weird we keep having to compare a guy who was 3 times in the top 2 to just everyone his age/first X amount of PAs. Can't we have higher expectations for a guy so highly rated for so long?

 

Yes we can have higher expectations.  But if you're going to have extremely high expectations, and then choose to write that player off after 350 plate appearances, you might be disappointed more often than not

[jimmer]

 

Yes we can have higher expectations.  But if you're going to have extremely high expectations, and then choose to write that player off after 350 plate appearances, you might be disappointed more often than not

He's not reaching even mild expectations at this point, much less extremely high expectations

[bluechipper]

 

I don't ever want Polanco in the OF.  just say no!

If it keeps Danny Santana on the bench, then I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot in the outfield.

[Blackjack]

Whether its baseball, accounting, tiddlywinks, or whatever, confidence and a positive attitude have as much (or more) to do with success than physical ability or brains.  Have you ever worked for a boss you didn't like?? Didn't get much done did you? Have you ever worked on a project, struggled, but then you figured out how to solve your problem?? The next time you worked on it, you had the confidence to get it done, probably better and faster. 

 

Buxton needs to go down, have some success, build up his confidence AND hopefully learn something. Hopefully every time he goes down he analyzes what he's been doing wrong and figures out how to fix it.  Its a learning process.

 

Rebuilt confidence and better techniques and more experience will help him next time he comes back. Going down earlier seemed to help him, hopefully this trip will too.

[SwainZag]

 

If it keeps Danny Santana on the bench, then I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot in the outfield.

 

I am tired of seeing infielders playing in the OF.  I'd rather see Grossman, Rosario and Kepler starting with D. San filling in 1-2 times per week than just tossing Polonco out there.  So far, Molly has done a pretty good job rotating Polonco around the diamond and getting his bat in the lineup without having him playing in the OF.

[bluechipper]

 

I am tired of seeing infielders playing in the OF.  I'd rather see Grossman, Rosario and Kepler starting with D. San filling in 1-2 times per week than just tossing Polonco out there.  So far, Molly has done a pretty good job rotating Polonco around the diamond and getting his bat in the lineup without having him playing in the OF.

That would be fine, but I can't see Trevor Plouffe spending a whole lot of time on the bench with the way Molitor splits playing time, so I don't see where Polanco fits into the lineup on a regular basis. Maybe he'll be used as a clutch-pinch-sac-bunter.