Do the Twins promote their college relievers too slowly?

[tobi0040]

I don't agree.

Which part?

 

That he made big decisions at the deadline regarding players that would maybe be here next year? I think the only case you could make is Meyer, but the org had given up on him and I think ownership was probably more than willing to part with him in order to potentially save $8m.

 

That he is pushing off the other decisions like Ervin, Plouffe, Milone, Dozier, etc.?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I feel like the Twins are in limbo and Antony knows his job is temporary, so he is punting all the bigger decisions to the next GM. So I really hope they fill the role before the end of the season, and sooner rather than later.

The guys moved at the deadline were no-brainers. But I am not sure we will see any guys that have a chance at being here next year DFA’d or traded. Ervin, Dozier, Plouffe, likely even Milone.

Milone will be a big test case.  Since he was being moved to mop-up duty in the pen, he really should have been put on waivers on Monday and been gone by today (outright or released) if he wasn't claimed.  Plouffe should be in a similar spot, although they will probably want to start him when he returns hoping to build value.

 

And it's not just the MLB guys.  I don't expect to see many guys added to the 40-man roster yet this season, guys like Jones, Wheeler, Baxendale, etc. if those decisions are indeed being left to the new full-time GM in November.

[bird]

 

There aren't that many "really compelling success stories" or we probably wouldn't be in this position today.

 

I suspect you could put a chimp who can read BA's pre-draft rankings in charge of the draft, and staff the minor league coaching spots somewhat randomly from within the industry, and you'll still wind up with a few "really compelling success stories" on the level of Tonkin over time.

 

 

Well, I think you're being rather uncharitable here. 

 

I bet close to half the GMs in baseball, if given a chance to swap out their entire farm system and big league roster for the Twins, would do it. Despite the record, we're not the 3rd worst team in MLB, far from it. And if it was solely about player assets under contract at all levels, we might be middle of the road or even better right now in the eyes of the industry. Finally, I think the industry looks at our organizational personnel in a much different and more favorable light than many of us do.

 

Maybe we're in this position today more because of other factors, although certainly not to the exclusion of mistakes and bad luck that put a serious crimp on the talent pipeline. I'd rank poor asset management, particularly with the sell discipline involving selling at peak value every once in a blue moon as the main culprit. Bad trades take second place, and Ryan's irrational fear of risks takes a close third, followed by real and/or imagined financial constraints, and then bad luck, mediocre MLB managing and coaching..... in fact, mistakes with talent evaluation or the development process barely make my top 10 list of reasons we're in this position. And a deficiency in that regard doesn't make the list at all, because I don't believe we have a deficiency. I believe fans of all teams obsess over the mistakes and conclude that their team is run by a bunch of lightweights.

 

And remember, we're talking about unearthing evidence of some consistent level of relative ineptitude at talent evaluation and development. I believe that's what you and others have been suggesting.

 

Pick a minor league club at random. Then let's go peek at the roster. I'll bet we find several prospects that were IFA no-names or Tonkin-round draft choices, age-appropriate for the level, who are looking pretty damn good. And we'll probably find one or more examples of highly regarded prospects performing up to or better than expectations, and more of those by far than the opposite.

[tobi0040]

Milone will be a big test case.  Since he was being moved to mop-up duty in the pen, he really should have been put on waivers on Monday and been gone by today (outright or released) if he wasn't claimed.  Plouffe should be in a similar spot, although they will probably want to start him when he returns hoping to build value.

 

And it's not just the MLB guys.  I don't expect to see many guys added to the 40-man roster yet this season, guys like Jones, Wheeler, Baxendale, etc. if those decisions are indeed being left to the new full-time GM in November.

I have worked for companies where leadership was in limbo. Maybe they made a hire but the person could not start for 2-3 months. The in between time is really a waste and this is not really the time to be punting decisions. I mean, we have already been punting or in many cases putting off the inevitable for too long. May, June, and July for example were really a time to play young guys. So we are already half a season behind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I bet close to half the GMs in baseball, if given a chance to swap out their entire farm system and big league roster for the Twins, would do it.

That might be a stretch, but I don't disagree with most of the rest of your post.  We might be comfortably middle of the pack by various measures, but I'm not sure our front office knows how we got there or has good ideas for getting better.  But I digress.

[d-mac]

 

If I had one issue (aside from Chargois not being on the 25-man now) it's that I don't like regularly sending the college pitchers from big time programs to the Rookie Leagues.

 

And a few of them don't, but it just seems to me that these guys aren't really being pushed when they go from playing 22-year-olds in the SEC and PAC 12 to 19-year-olds in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian League.

 

This x1000. Relief pitchers have less shelf life, why waste innings at a level with inferior competition to what many saw in college? That makes no sense to me and smacks of a "one size fits all" development policy. 

[d-mac]

 

I think this is to a large extent a fallacy, nick. I've been periodically comparing the bios of the opposing starters versus the Twins in both the Appy and GCL to satisfy my own curiosity, and I'm just not seeing a pattern. However, if in a given year one team has a larger number of DSL graduates to promote and another team loaded up on late round college guys in this year's draft (and this happens), it might be a short-term thing. But I don't believe you're going to discover that some teams are placing college guys in general at a higher level. That said, I suppose there may be a chance that the Twins draft more college guys from obscure programs and fewer from the Vandy's of the world and that this could factor in to placement decisions. But again, I'm just not seeing a difference when I compare our guy to the other guy regarding age, draft order, signing date, and # of IP's.

 

Is it? If there is one key take away from Hosken's study is that virtually none of the college relievers spent time in the rookie leagues. Burdi is the only Twins' reliever that did not. 

[d-mac]

Another take away nobody has mentioned, is that there isn't a lot of success in this sample. Among Hosken's 50 or so original college relievers taken in the first two rounds of those nine drafts, the results are pretty underwhelming. There are far fewer productive relievers than even I would have expected, and I do not view drafting relievers positively. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I think this is to a large extent a fallacy, nick. I've been periodically comparing the bios of the opposing starters versus the Twins in both the Appy and GCL to satisfy my own curiosity, and I'm just not seeing a pattern. However, if in a given year one team has a larger number of DSL graduates to promote and another team loaded up on late round college guys in this year's draft (and this happens), it might be a short-term thing. But I don't believe you're going to discover that some teams are placing college guys in general at a higher level. That said, I suppose there may be a chance that the Twins draft more college guys from obscure programs and fewer from the Vandy's of the world and that this could factor in to placement decisions. But again, I'm just not seeing a difference when I compare our guy to the other guy regarding age, draft order, signing date, and # of IP's.

 

I really don't have any idea what other clubs are doing and I wasn't trying to compare other clubs to the Twins in terms of putting college pitchers from top programs in Rookie Ball.

 

My opinion is that any club that regularly puts these guys against younger/more inexperienced competition than they just faced in the College World Series should reconsider the practice. I know the Twins do, and I'm not a fan. If this is common with other clubs, also, not a fan.

[Brandon Warne]

I'll say no. They moved Jesse Crain fast when he was a college reliever because he was cruising through each level.

 

With that said, get Hildy up here. He's got nothing left to prove in the minors and is already almost 26. 

[Seth Stohs]

I know that my opinion on this is boring, but it has to be a case-by-case thing, person by person. My definition of moving a player up quickly may be different than others... I think arguments could be made on both sides of it.

 

Burdi was pushed. He was on the fast-track. The Twins probably wanted him up in 2015. But Burdi struggled in AA. They'd love to have him up now, but he got hurt.

 

Reed was pushed quickly. To the AFL the year he was drafted and skipped Ft. Myers and went right to AA. He's still there. The reports and the opinions are still very high on him. But he hasn't earned his way to the big leagues yet. 

 

Hildenberger was a late pick with limited experience. He started in the GCL, which made sense. He went to CR and pushed to FM in his first full season. He at AA now and if not for this injury, maybe he's in AAA now. He's moved quick.

 

Melotakis they tried as a starter, and they moved on from that fairly quickly. He then had Tommy John, and they pushed him right to AA this year. They're taking care of him and getting him through this year, but doesn't have the numbers to jump to AAA. 

 

Chargois missed two years with injuries. He came back and got some innings in Ft. Myers but was pushed to Chattanooga quickly. He started out there again this year, but moved up to AAA quickly. He was called up in June. He's close. I think he could be up, but I don't feel like he's been moved slowly.

 

Rogers was a starter for several years, including times when the Twins rotation was pretty weak. Most think that if he could develop a better changeup, he could be a solid three-pitch starter. There's value in that. Even with the lefty-right splits, if that pitch comes through, those numbers would likely be closer. But, when there was a job opening early this year, he got it. So, I feel like he was brought up as he should have been.

 

Patrick McGuff was drafted this year out of a small school in the 39th round. He made 5 appearances in the GCL and was moved up to the Appy League. I'm guessing if the Kernels would have needed a reliever right now, they wouldn't hesitate to move him up.

 

There are examples of guys who could move up a month or two earlier than they are. Michael Theofanopoulos is one example this year. 

[Eris]

 

In fairness.....they didn't make Rogers a RP until very recently, when some here thought he should be up last year as a RP. To me, that was a great example of not trusting young players last year (or even this year) as RPs, while leaving bad veterans in MN. But, to bird's point, it might be more situation specific than I am giving them credit for. OTOH, we have seen teams like STL and CHISOX have great success bringing guys like Rogers up to pitch out of the pen a bit faster than MN does it.

 

Good starting pitchers are more valuable than all but the greatest relief pitchers.  (Dellin Betances has a 2.5 WAR, 27 starting pitchers have a WAR >= 2.5)  Therefore it is to an organizations benefit to to give most/all the young pitchers an opportunity to be a starter.  An effective starter needs to develop 3-4 effective pitches that can be thrown for strikes.  This takes time.  When players fail to develop the pitches needed to be an effective starter, they can then be converted to a relief pitcher.  The discussion on when to convert someone to a relief pitcher is about short term vs. potential long term benefits.  Consider Trevor May, one of the most effective strikeout pitchers the Twins have, by moving him to the bull pen early in his career the Twins have lost the opportunity to see if he could develop into an effective starter.  

[drivlikejehu]

It's not really moving someone "quickly" to start them at such a low level that they have to be promoted a bunch of times just to get someplace appropriate.

 

Obviously, for late-round picks there are roster considerations and they aren't seen as likely MLB players anyway. But the Twins could clearly be more aggressive with relievers, and not only for certain high picks like Burdi and Reed. 

 

Still though, minor league relievers in general have a poor MLB track record. Most big league relievers are failed starters, with Rogers being a great example (didn't develop a good enough 3rd pitch).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good starting pitchers are more valuable than all but the greatest relief pitchers.  (Dellin Betances has a 2.5 WAR, 27 starting pitchers have a WAR >= 2.5)  Therefore it is to an organizations benefit to to give most/all the young pitchers an opportunity to be a starter.  An effective starter needs to develop 3-4 effective pitches that can be thrown for strikes.  This takes time.  When players fail to develop the pitches needed to be an effective starter, they can then be converted to a relief pitcher.  The discussion on when to convert someone to a relief pitcher is about short term vs. potential long term benefits.  Consider Trevor May, one of the most effective strikeout pitchers the Twins have, by moving him to the bull pen early in his career the Twins have lost the opportunity to see if he could develop into an effective starter.  

 

Rogers has two pitches, with an extreme platoon split. They needed a LH RP last year, and didn't call him up at all. It would not have stopped him from going back to starting this year if it was the right choice. 

 

May has 4 pitches, and was succeeding as a starter when they moved him.

 

Those two are NOT like each other at all.

 

Finally, at some point, it is more valuable to actually use a guy in the majors, than it is to wait forever for him to be something in the minors. 

 

IMO, Rogers should have been up , in a playoff race, when the Twins needed help. Instead, they didn't get 1 penny of value from him last year. 

[bird]

 

Is it? If there is one key take away from Hosken's study is that virtually none of the college relievers spent time in the rookie leagues. Burdi is the only Twins' reliever that did not. 

 

 

The fallacy I'm talking about is that lots of other teams don't start college pitchers in rookie leagues. Hosken's study focused on an ultimate universe of 11 college pitchers, all relievers. I see that 4 of the 11 started their careers in rookie leagues, including Chargois, the one Twin in the universe. I don't think we can garner much from a study of this group of 11 prospects.

 

It may be that the Twins have somewhat of a bias towards starting some college guys at the rookie level for a period just after they are signed, perhaps to limit their innings after the college season, I don't know. Anecdotally, we can point to a few guys signed this year who started in either the GCL or E-Town prior to advancing. Beardsley is a name I recall, and I seem to remember a guy recently elevated from the GCL right to Cedar Rapids too maybe just a week ago.

 

I guess I remain skeptical that there is some meaningful and deleterious difference between how the Twins handle college pitchers, relievers and otherwise, when it comes to either their original placement or their subsequent advancement. I have yet to see a comparative study that puts any real meat on the bones of a hypothesis about low placement or slow advancement. And my own spot-checking of the bios of opposing starters against our own, at every level, seems to contradict the opinion that we move pitchers slowly. Although maybe if I looked at the saves leaders of various teams, I'd discover some new information.

[Shane Wahl]

In my world, the AAA bullpen would be loaded right now and Chargois would be Twin.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The fallacy I'm talking about is that lots of other teams don't start college pitchers in rookie leagues. Hosken's study focused on an ultimate universe of 11 college pitchers, all relievers. I see that 4 of the 11 started their careers in rookie leagues, including Chargois, the one Twin in the universe. I don't think we can garner much from a study of this group of 11 prospects.

 

Not only that, but the average age of the rookie leagues is 21.  Pretty hard to get that average age if teams aren't starting college players there.

[DocBauer]

I am going to also have to say no. Someone mention Crain earlier, and he was moved fairly aggressively. To be honest, names escape me at the moment, but I've seen the Twins promote RP fairly quickly in the past as well, including up to the majors.

 

I think whathe we are seeing now is a skewed perspective. The Twins need bullpen help. They have a number of very nice looking bullpen arms in the minors we anxiously await. And they're putting up good to great numbers. We want to see them advance and arrive. But despite those successes, and out own impatience, there are multiple considerations here. Burdi is hurt. Chargois missed an awful lot of time after barely starting g his career, but has already been bumped one level this year. Melotakis is at AA after coming back romantic TJ. Jones was with the Brewers, hurt, and just came back. Reed is pitching well, but wasn't earlier in the year. Hildenberger has already been promoted a level this year.

 

And as has been also pointed out, for every action, there has to be an equal secondary action at multiple levels when a player(s) is moved. And while I also don't like AAA being filled with journeymen type, we must remember that the minors is for developing talent, but AAA roster's always have a veteran guy or two around for the parent club to call on in emergency.

 

Now, all that being said, today being August 5th, I AM going to say that for the final month of this season, I do agree that Chargois should be up, and that Hildenberger should be in Rochester. (Hopefully both these happen as soon as Hildenberger is healthy again) At this late point in the season, much like a September call up to the parent club, I believe top performs SHOULD be challenged to end the season, even if that means pick slips to a veteran guy or two at the AAA level.

[jimbo92107]

Looks like the Twins should just draft big, athletic high schoolers, then teach them how to throw a baseball without wrecking their arms. 

[Mr. Brooks]

There is no "could" about Chargois. He SHOULD be up, yesterday.

Wasting his limited bullets in AAA at this point is absurd.

[Linus]

Every prospect is different. To label them all the same isn't realistic thinking and leads to lots of fan frustration. I really don't care that Carlos Correa beat Buxton to big league success. I only care about what is best for Buxton right now.

[jimmer]

 

Every prospect is different. To label them all the same isn't realistic thinking and leads to lots of fan frustration. I really don't care that Carlos Correa beat Buxton to big league success. I only care about what is best for Buxton right now.

When did Buxton and Carlos Correa become college pitchers?

[Linus]

When did Buxton become a college pitcher?

Clever. I'm guessing you understand my point.

[twinssouth]

Wouldn't it be the cats you know what, if at end of season, Dean is dropped from the 40 man roster and replaced by Zack Jones. I'll be happy to lead the chorus of I told you so. In case those that don't remember, Jones was not added to the 40 man, Brewers picked him up, paid Twins the $50,000 claim, Twins get him back and keep the money. Jones now is pitching lights out at AA. Oh, how sweet it is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wouldn't it be the cats you know what, if at end of season, Dean is dropped from the 40 man roster and replaced by Zack Jones. I'll be happy to lead the chorus of I told you so. In case those that don't remember, Jones was not added to the 40 man, Brewers picked him up, paid Twins the $50,000 claim, Twins get him back and keep the money. Jones now is pitching lights out at AA. Oh, how sweet it is.

I believe the Twins only get to keep $25,000 after the player is returned.

 

If this is the plan, I'd like to see Jones get a look now, at least in AAA. Another almost 26 year old reliever toiling away behind Tommy Milone and minor league free agent to be Neil Ramirez...

[darin617]

The Twins promote all players too slowly.

[old nurse]

Interesting the number of blown arms on the fast track list